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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

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Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
doomdonker
Profile Joined October 2017
90 Posts
October 30 2017 14:04 GMT
#181721
Considering federal charges basically fuck people as hard as the Japanese justice system fucks anyone accused of a crime, I don't think its likely Manafort is going to run out of here with no jail time.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
October 30 2017 14:05 GMT
#181722
On October 30 2017 22:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2017 22:42 doomdonker wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:22 ticklishmusic wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
Pretty sure this means Manafort didn't take a deal, so now we're waiting on what the charges are to see if they related to the campaign (unlikely).


"The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts."

Mostly financial stuff. But hey money laundering, now we know which xDaunt kept using that phrase yesterday.


So basically a dead end unless Trump leaves him hanging?


Maybe, but the indictment is pretty specific. The charges are basically all financial, presumably since that's basically what the state of New York can smack Manafort with, but the indictment specifically targets money laundering with Cypriot bank accounts (which Kushner seems to have done a fair bit of in the past) and Manafort being an illegal foreign agent working on behalf of a pro-Russia political organisation.

I guess Manafort can fall on the sword and take one for the team.


He'd have talked already if he was going to. It would appear Manafort was betting they didn't have anything on the campaign through him and it looks like he was right. I see this heading toward a plea with little to no jail time.

I doubt that there's a plea deal with little jail time. Mueller is in a bit of a rough spot here. The problem with the Manafort indictment is that it does nothing to justify his appointment as special counsel. These are things that were already being investigated and could have been handled by a regular federal DA. I think Mueller is going to be under political pressure to throw the book at Manafort and light him up at court.
Mercy13
Profile Joined January 2011
United States718 Posts
October 30 2017 14:06 GMT
#181723
On October 30 2017 22:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2017 22:42 doomdonker wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:22 ticklishmusic wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
Pretty sure this means Manafort didn't take a deal, so now we're waiting on what the charges are to see if they related to the campaign (unlikely).


"The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts."

Mostly financial stuff. But hey money laundering, now we know which xDaunt kept using that phrase yesterday.


So basically a dead end unless Trump leaves him hanging?


Maybe, but the indictment is pretty specific. The charges are basically all financial, presumably since that's basically what the state of New York can smack Manafort with, but the indictment specifically targets money laundering with Cypriot bank accounts (which Kushner seems to have done a fair bit of in the past) and Manafort being an illegal foreign agent working on behalf of a pro-Russia political organisation.

I guess Manafort can fall on the sword and take one for the team.


He'd have talked already if he was going to. It would appear Manafort was betting they didn't have anything on the campaign through him and it looks like he was right. I see this heading toward a plea with little to no jail time.


I don't know if that is true. Standard practice for prosecutors is to not offer a plea deal until they have properly cowed the defendant by bringing as many charges as possible. Assuming these charges aren't related to the campaign, it is still possible that Mueller is hoping they can get Manafort to flip on other people from the campaign to avoid some or all of the charges.

Does anyone know how much time he would be facing if convicted?
doomdonker
Profile Joined October 2017
90 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:10:49
October 30 2017 14:08 GMT
#181724
On October 30 2017 23:05 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2017 22:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:42 doomdonker wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:22 ticklishmusic wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
Pretty sure this means Manafort didn't take a deal, so now we're waiting on what the charges are to see if they related to the campaign (unlikely).


"The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts."

Mostly financial stuff. But hey money laundering, now we know which xDaunt kept using that phrase yesterday.


So basically a dead end unless Trump leaves him hanging?


Maybe, but the indictment is pretty specific. The charges are basically all financial, presumably since that's basically what the state of New York can smack Manafort with, but the indictment specifically targets money laundering with Cypriot bank accounts (which Kushner seems to have done a fair bit of in the past) and Manafort being an illegal foreign agent working on behalf of a pro-Russia political organisation.

I guess Manafort can fall on the sword and take one for the team.


He'd have talked already if he was going to. It would appear Manafort was betting they didn't have anything on the campaign through him and it looks like he was right. I see this heading toward a plea with little to no jail time.

I doubt that there's a plea deal with little jail time. Mueller is in a bit of a rough spot here. The problem with the Manafort indictment is that it does nothing to justify his appointment as special counsel. These are things that were already being investigated and could have been handled by a regular federal DA. I think Mueller is going to be under political pressure to throw the book at Manafort and light him up at court.


Well it is related to the special counsel. The whole financial aspect is entirely related to Russia because it details the amount of influence Russia had over Manafort and any other of Trump's staff such as Jared Kushner. Manafort by himself owed some $60 million to a Russian oligarch, that isn't an insignificant amount of leverage if said Russian oligarch wants to get some quid pro quo started behind the scenes.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:15:34
October 30 2017 14:14 GMT
#181725
On October 30 2017 23:05 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2017 22:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:42 doomdonker wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:22 ticklishmusic wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
Pretty sure this means Manafort didn't take a deal, so now we're waiting on what the charges are to see if they related to the campaign (unlikely).


"The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts."

Mostly financial stuff. But hey money laundering, now we know which xDaunt kept using that phrase yesterday.


So basically a dead end unless Trump leaves him hanging?


Maybe, but the indictment is pretty specific. The charges are basically all financial, presumably since that's basically what the state of New York can smack Manafort with, but the indictment specifically targets money laundering with Cypriot bank accounts (which Kushner seems to have done a fair bit of in the past) and Manafort being an illegal foreign agent working on behalf of a pro-Russia political organisation.

I guess Manafort can fall on the sword and take one for the team.


He'd have talked already if he was going to. It would appear Manafort was betting they didn't have anything on the campaign through him and it looks like he was right. I see this heading toward a plea with little to no jail time.

I doubt that there's a plea deal with little jail time. Mueller is in a bit of a rough spot here. The problem with the Manafort indictment is that it does nothing to justify his appointment as special counsel. These are things that were already being investigated and could have been handled by a regular federal DA. I think Mueller is going to be under political pressure to throw the book at Manafort and light him up at court.


I think if Manafort really thought the book was coming at him he would have sung like Christina Aguilera. Mueller is going to have to get something, but I don't think this is it.

There's more out there to choose from though.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:23:37
October 30 2017 14:19 GMT
#181726
This will probably turn out to be wrong, but of all the people to indict Manafort seems likely to have the most open-and-shut case against him (there's a reason he left the campaign, after all, and he has a long track record of some questionable international interactions). I could easily see this as an attempt to probe what responses will be like from the White House/Trump surrogates and to see what weapons they'll bring to bear on behalf of someone who has committed clear wrongdoing.

(They may also be trying to see if Trump's own reaction-if he contemplates firing Mueller after these two indictments, when they were obviously going to happen, it'll show he's basically not really understanding what's going on)
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
October 30 2017 14:19 GMT
#181727
On October 30 2017 23:05 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 30 2017 22:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:42 doomdonker wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:26 GreenHorizons wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:22 ticklishmusic wrote:
On October 30 2017 22:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
Pretty sure this means Manafort didn't take a deal, so now we're waiting on what the charges are to see if they related to the campaign (unlikely).


"The indictment contains 12 counts: conspiracy against the United States, conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts."

Mostly financial stuff. But hey money laundering, now we know which xDaunt kept using that phrase yesterday.


So basically a dead end unless Trump leaves him hanging?


Maybe, but the indictment is pretty specific. The charges are basically all financial, presumably since that's basically what the state of New York can smack Manafort with, but the indictment specifically targets money laundering with Cypriot bank accounts (which Kushner seems to have done a fair bit of in the past) and Manafort being an illegal foreign agent working on behalf of a pro-Russia political organisation.

I guess Manafort can fall on the sword and take one for the team.


He'd have talked already if he was going to. It would appear Manafort was betting they didn't have anything on the campaign through him and it looks like he was right. I see this heading toward a plea with little to no jail time.

I doubt that there's a plea deal with little jail time. Mueller is in a bit of a rough spot here. The problem with the Manafort indictment is that it does nothing to justify his appointment as special counsel. These are things that were already being investigated and could have been handled by a regular federal DA. I think Mueller is going to be under political pressure to throw the book at Manafort and light him up at court.

Are you saying this because Trump or his campaign was not mentioned in the indictment?

Nixon wasn't mentioned at all in the first indictments for Watergate.

We'll have to see how this plays out, but it will come back to the campaign eventually.
doomdonker
Profile Joined October 2017
90 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:32:56
October 30 2017 14:26 GMT
#181728
George Papadopolous, some guy who worked for the Trump campaign, just pleaded guilty about lying to the FBI about "the timing, extent, and the nature of his relationships and interactions with certain foreign nationals whom he understood to have close connections with senior Russian government officials."

[image loading]

If these guys get done, its because they clearly haven't watched The Wire. More specifically, don't write your fucking conspiracies down and don't talk to the police.
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:35:59
October 30 2017 14:32 GMT
#181729
On October 30 2017 23:26 doomdonker wrote:
George Papadopolous, some guy who worked for the Trump campaign, just pleaded guilty about lying to the FBI about "the timing, extent, and the nature of his relationships and interactions with certain foreign nationals whom he understood to have close connections with senior Russian government officials."

[image loading]

And there it is! Direct ties to Trump's campaign.

This guy is 23 or 24, straight out of college, who was nevertheless hired to Trump's natsec team during the campaign. Everyone thought this was really weird at the time, because most people on a natsec team for a presidential campaign are people who are respected diplomats or former military or something like that. Papadopolous was a total nobody.

It was later revealed in several news articles that in early 2016, he helped get the Russian government in contact with Donald Trump. Looks like he cracked under pressure from the feds.
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:43:54
October 30 2017 14:39 GMT
#181730
Here is the indictment against Manafort if anyone is interested.

https://int.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2017/indictment/Paul-Manafort-Rick-Gates-Indictment.pdf

It's kind of weird how long the indictment is. A lot of them just list the charges without including hyper-detailed explanations, complete with tables of transactions from foreign banks.

75 million in foreign money... that's so much money, jesus


And here is George P's

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4163402/Papadopoulos-Statement-Offense.pdf

"The Professor" lol. I guess we know what he did after he got off Gilligan's Island.
doomdonker
Profile Joined October 2017
90 Posts
October 30 2017 14:40 GMT
#181731



Well why the fuck did you let Manafort run you campaign you idiot.

Also that George guy is a complete moron lmao.

[image loading]
Leporello
Profile Joined January 2011
United States2845 Posts
October 30 2017 14:42 GMT
#181732
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/manafort-and-former-business-partner-asked-to-surrender-in-connection-with-special-counsel-probe/2017/10/30/6fe051f0-bd67-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html?pushid=59f739934069751d00000027&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.231c3942e71d

Manafort has always been the most obvious Putin stooge, but the thing that might really tie it all to Trump is this guy Papadapolous.

3 indictments today. Papadapolous' indictment mentions Trump and his campaign extensively, and also mentions he may be a cooperating witness.


How long before someone makes this about Hillary?
Big water
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
October 30 2017 14:45 GMT
#181733
On October 30 2017 23:40 doomdonker wrote:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925005659569041409
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925006418989715456

Well why the fuck did you let Manafort run you campaign you idiot.

Also that George guy is a complete moron lmao.

[image loading]

HAHAHAHA

OH MY GOD HOW CAN YOU BE THIS STUPID???????

The FBI totally didn't check my Facebook account before they interviewed me. let me just click this delete button (which doesn't actually delete anything).... there, I'm safe now. Whew, that was a close one, they almost had me.
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
October 30 2017 14:46 GMT
#181734
On October 30 2017 23:42 Leporello wrote:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/manafort-and-former-business-partner-asked-to-surrender-in-connection-with-special-counsel-probe/2017/10/30/6fe051f0-bd67-11e7-959c-fe2b598d8c00_story.html?pushid=59f739934069751d00000027&tid=notifi_push_breaking-news&utm_term=.231c3942e71d

Manafort has always been the most obvious Putin stooge, but the thing that might really tie it all to Trump is this guy Papadapolous.

3 indictments today. Papadapolous' indictment mentions Trump and his campaign extensively, and also mentions he may be a cooperating witness.


How long before someone makes this about Hillary?

He pled guilty, that makes him a cooperating witness.
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 14:50:37
October 30 2017 14:50 GMT
#181735
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/925005659569041409

The President of the United States. I wonder what he'll have to say about George. Fake charges? I knew nothing about the totally fake charges?

EDIT: Sorry for triple post.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 30 2017 14:52 GMT
#181736
i give 50/50 odds that something else drops at close of day.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-30 15:00:35
October 30 2017 14:53 GMT
#181737
I'm sure Trump knew nothing about Manafort's criminal past, which included lobbying on behalf on Russian government (not just Ukraine government) interests. It is a total and complete coincidence that Manafort lived in Trump Tower prior to the campaign. It is also a total and complete coincidence that Manafort attend the Trump Jr meeting in which Trump Jr was promised damaging information from Hillary, coming from the Russian government as part of the Russian government's efforts to help Trump win. And it is a total and complete coincidence that shortly after said meeting, Trump tweeted about Hillary's missing emails, and not long later, publicly called for Russia to steal Hillary's missing emails. The Trump campaign's stated a willingness to collude, and there were full scale efforts by Russia to help Trump win - but this is all a witch hunt, and we should focus on Hillary instead!
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
October 30 2017 14:56 GMT
#181738
Trump also clearly didn't read the Manafort indictment (not a surprise, not 1-page and doesn't include his name) because the allegations mention lying in 2016 and explicitly state the fraud went into 2017.
TheLordofAwesome
Profile Joined May 2014
Korea (South)2656 Posts
October 30 2017 14:56 GMT
#181739
On October 30 2017 23:53 Doodsmack wrote:
I'm sure Trump knew nothing about Manafort's criminal past, which included lobbying on behalf on Russian government (not just Ukraine government) interests. It is a total and complete coincidence that Manafort lived in Trump Tower prior to the campaign. It is also a total and complete coincidence that Manafort attend the Trump Jr meeting in which Trump Jr was promised damaging information from Hillary, coming from the Russian government as part of the Russian government's efforts to help Trump win. And it is a total and complete coincidence that shortly after said meeting, Trump tweeted about Hillary's missing emails, and not long later, publicly called for Russia to steal Hillary's missing emails. The Trump campaign's stated a willingness to collude, and there were full scale efforts by Russia to help Trump win - but this is all a witch hunt, and we should focus on Hillary instead!

You forgot to mention that Manafort, Jared, and Don Jr all forgot to tell Trump himself about that meeting with the Russians.

Also, George P got arrested at Dulles Airport 3 MONTHS ago.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44283 Posts
October 30 2017 14:57 GMT
#181740
Yeah but if Hillary wasn't bribed by Russia to help company A be sold then why did a Canadian from company B give her husband all that money? Wake up sheeple.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
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