US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5154

On September 26 2016 23:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:

All dem strongholds.
Doubt it'll affect the vote there much.

On September 26 2016 23:28 farvacola wrote:

Only 2 sit in traditionally blue states, but go ahead and show off how little you know about our political subdivisions

On September 26 2016 23:30 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:

You think people living in those states don't already know those cities are hellholes?
lol.....

On September 26 2016 23:31 farvacola wrote:

That has nothing to do with crime rates?
lol......you're supposed to reference gold and/or the impending global collapse now, silly.

On September 26 2016 22:54 Liquid`Drone wrote:


Perception being higher than reality makes total sense to me too. It's just that the discrepancies are so high - 5% compare to 0.1%? 3-4 times higher than reality for most countries? I'm also with you that the numbers of muslims from 2010 doesn't perfectly match up with the numbers from 2014, but I'd be very surprised if the numbers actually changed all that significantly. (If it was perception from 2016 with real numbers from 2010, that'd be different - migrant crisis did for some countries, like germany and sweden, lead to a big increase, but then even for sweden, we're looking at real numbers moving from like 5% to like 7% - nothing near justifying the 17% impression. )

I basically don't think this is really a case of deliberate misleading or obtuseness - it's just that there aren't necessarily good data for every year. 2010 was apparently a year where pew researched this, so they have good numbers for immigrants for 2010, then 2014 they have good numbers for what the impression is. Then the actual numbers hardly changed from 2010 until 2014 - I'd be very surprised if real numbers changed by more than 2% for any surveyed country, and I think it's more likely they changed by 0.5% or less.

edit: The reason why I wanted to highlight this was also to showcase how the narratives matter, and for that reason, perception poll being after reality poll makes some sense, even independently of practical matters. Perceptions are shaped over time and much more volatile than the actual numbers are. I would have loved to see perception numbers from 2010 - if they are significantly lower than 2014 numbers, I'd argue this is because of the islam-unfriendly narrative having successfully been pushed and changing people's impressions over a 4 year period of time.

On September 26 2016 23:38 ticklishmusic wrote:
It looks like 2015 might be more a reversion to the mean rather than an "increase"



First uptick in awhile, but I wouldn't freak out just yet.

On the morning of the first presidential debate, Donald Trump's campaign manager appeared on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and was pushed again and again to explain why her candidate said that debate moderator Lester Holt is a Democrat when he is actually a registered Republican.

[...]

"We're asking why he lied about Lester Holt."

"He didn't lie," Conway said.

"Um, I think he did," Brzezinski said.

"Mika, a lie would mean that he knew the man's party registration," Conway said.

On the morning of the first presidential debate, Donald Trump's campaign manager appeared on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and was pushed again and again to explain why her candidate said that debate moderator Lester Holt is a Democrat when he is actually a registered Republican.

[...]

"We're asking why he lied about Lester Holt."

"He didn't lie," Conway said.

"Um, I think he did," Brzezinski said.

"Mika, a lie would mean that he knew the man's party registration," Conway said.

On September 27 2016 00:09 IgnE wrote:


can you extend that line back to at least 2006? post recession crime might be high

On September 27 2016 00:09 IgnE wrote:


can you extend that line back to at least 2006? post recession crime might be high