[Megathread] Daily Proleagues - Page 48

On December 17 2023 08:47 TMNT wrote:
People tend to resort to all kinds of cliched explanations but imo the main reason is just purely down to chances and variations.

When you have a group of 10 or so players at the same level (Major Proleague) and all capable of beating each other on any given day, then they all take turn to win once when the number of tournaments becomes high enough. That's why since Flash's departure, we have had 7 different champions and 11 different finalists in just 7 seasons. A bit like women tennis after the Williams retired lol. It's just not Snow, or Soma, or Hero, or Rush's turn to win.

But I mean, Snow did reach the finals twice, but had to face peak Rain (at a time when his PvP is better than Flash's TvT) and then Flash himself. In contrast, Light - a player also touted as the best of his race in recent years - could only enter 2 finals as well, but he got to play out-of-retirement Rain, and Queen. I'm pretty sure Queen is an easier opponent than Flash and out-of-retirement Rain is worse than peak Rain lol. So that's where the bad luck plays a role too.

On December 20 2023 00:26 RJBTV wrote:

Light did beat prime rain in KSL though. Rain gets back into form extremely quick.
You're entirely right though that Flash was in a sense an anomaly. He was better than everyone else, and while that didn't mean he was by default goin to win the tournament, it did mean that potential champions were likely to get eliminated by him. And as we saw after his retirement we've had a much wider variety of finalists because the level right below flash is much more tight knit.

On December 17 2023 08:47 TMNT wrote:
People tend to resort to all kinds of cliched explanations but imo the main reason is just purely down to chances and variations.

When you have a group of 10 or so players at the same level (Major Proleague) and all capable of beating each other on any given day, then they all take turn to win once when the number of tournaments becomes high enough. That's why since Flash's departure, we have had 7 different champions and 11 different finalists in just 7 seasons. A bit like women tennis after the Williams retired lol. It's just not Snow, or Soma, or Hero, or Rush's turn to win.

But I mean, Snow did reach the finals twice, but had to face peak Rain (at a time when his PvP is better than Flash's TvT) and then Flash himself. In contrast, Light - a player also touted as the best of his race in recent years - could only enter 2 finals as well, but he got to play out-of-retirement Rain, and Queen. I'm pretty sure Queen is an easier opponent than Flash and out-of-retirement Rain is worse than peak Rain lol. So that's where the bad luck plays a role too.

On December 20 2023 22:35 Malongo wrote:

I disagree with that, mostly because Snow hasn't been as consistent as other players.

ASL 16 Out by Killer and Royal. Killer lost miserably next round and should have been an easy win on all counts. Losing twice to Royal is not something that happens regularly. Neither of them even made it to playoffs.
ASL 15 Out by light and Sk, I guess that's kind of within range, but Best that is supposedly behind in PL got out beating both.
ASL 14 Got smashed by hero in ro8.
ASL 13 Out by Royal and Ggaemo of all people.

As much as variance can affect you would expect him to do way better compared to how other P players like Best, Bisu and Mini do. I think he just doesn't care at this point.

On December 20 2023 22:35 Malongo wrote:

I disagree with that, mostly because Snow hasn't been as consistent as other players.

ASL 16 Out by Killer and Royal. Killer lost miserably next round and should have been an easy win on all counts. Losing twice to Royal is not something that happens regularly. Neither of them even made it to playoffs.
ASL 15 Out by light and Sk, I guess that's kind of within range, but Best that is supposedly behind in PL got out beating both.
ASL 14 Got smashed by hero in ro8.
ASL 13 Out by Royal and Ggaemo of all people.

As much as variance can affect you would expect him to do way better compared to how other P players like Best, Bisu and Mini do. I think he just doesn't care at this point.

On December 21 2023 00:39 Nirli wrote:


Don't bother.

On December 21 2023 00:37 TMNT wrote:

You got things mixed up a little bit.
ASL16 he lost once to Royal, not twice.
ASL13 he lost twice to ggaemo, didn't play Royal.

But when you talked about being as consistent as others, it seems like it's based on a feeling rather than factual check.

Best is a far worse and less consistent player in ASL than Snow. Never made it into finals.

Bisu never made an ASL finals. Bombed out of Ro24/16/8 in the same fashion as Snow. Just last season he lost twice to Ample.

Mini while achieved great things, is the definition of an inconsistent player. Not sure that needs to be demonstrated more.

Royal fluked a title playing mostly TvZ. He never made it past Ro8 before that season. And after that season, hasn't even won a game in Ro16.

JYJ fluked another title in the same way. And he's overall a worse player than Royal.

As good as Soulkey is now, that was his first ASL finals in 16 seasons (I know he won a KSL though).

Light has literally the same kind of ups and downs in ASL history as Snow. Out of Ro24/16 many times, losing to opponents he was expected to beat. Made 2 finals as well but he won 1 and I mentioned above that his opponents in the finals were not as strong as Snow's.

Hero is actually the most consistent ASL player since his discharge from military service. Hasn't made a finals yet.

It's actually Snow's reputation/success online that harms his image in ASL. If you look at his ASL results solely, it's really not different to other top players.

On December 21 2023 14:01 Malongo wrote:

We are talking about different things tbh. You are looking at all the asl tournaments, I'm just looking at the last year. My hypothesis is that once he reached those 2 finals and failed to materialize he just doesn't care as much about it. I don't buy the variance argument because that same variance should appear in PL.

On December 20 2023 00:26 RJBTV wrote:

Light did beat prime rain in KSL though. Rain gets back into form extremely quick.
You're entirely right though that Flash was in a sense an anomaly. He was better than everyone else, and while that didn't mean he was by default goin to win the tournament, it did mean that potential champions were likely to get eliminated by him. And as we saw after his retirement we've had a much wider variety of finalists because the level right below flash is much more tight knit.

On December 21 2023 15:20 TMNT wrote:
It's the same story within the last year too. Players have ups and downs all the time in ASL:
JYJ out of Ro24 the season right before his championship.
Royal hasn't won a single Ro16 game for two seasons after his championship.
Mini out of Ro24 the season right before his lastest runner up finish
Light and Soma both out of Ro24 and Ro16 each, over the last two seasons, despite being the leaders of their race in PL that whole time.

Variances do appear in PL. You just didn't see it in the grand scale. Players can lose today and win tomorrow, or lose in 1st set and go on an all kill in 2nd set. It depends on the matchups they get as well. They all have winning and losing streaks. But at the end of the month/quarter/year, when sample size is big enough for everyone, they all return to where they should be in the ranking. In ASL, there's no tomorrow or 2nd set to rectify. If you lose you're out.