could be stage fright with bo1 format early rounds?
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Soft_General_5023
11 Posts
could be stage fright with bo1 format early rounds? | ||
Magic Powers
Austria2661 Posts
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TMNT
1833 Posts
When you have a group of 10 or so players at the same level (Major Proleague) and all capable of beating each other on any given day, then they all take turn to win once when the number of tournaments becomes high enough. That's why since Flash's departure, we have had 7 different champions and 11 different finalists in just 7 seasons. A bit like women tennis after the Williams retired lol. It's just not Snow, or Soma, or Hero, or Rush's turn to win. But I mean, Snow did reach the finals twice, but had to face peak Rain (at a time when his PvP is better than Flash's TvT) and then Flash himself. In contrast, Light - a player also touted as the best of his race in recent years - could only enter 2 finals as well, but he got to play out-of-retirement Rain, and Queen. I'm pretty sure Queen is an easier opponent than Flash and out-of-retirement Rain is worse than peak Rain lol. So that's where the bad luck plays a role too. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
K-LEAGUE, DEC 16 2023 [Team A] Mini Best Shuttle sSak vs [Team B] Royal Soulkey Effort Killer SET 1 (PROLEAGUE) Shuttle <Polypoid> Effort Best <Tempest> Royal Mini <La Campanella> Soulkey sSak <Apocalypse> Killer + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Best <Neo Dark Origin> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + sSak <Invader> Killer + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + Best <Retro> Effort SET 2 (WINNDERS LEAGUE) Best <La Campanella> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 2] + Best <Neo Dark Origin> Effort + Show Spoiler [Game 3] + sSak <Polypoid> Effort + Show Spoiler [Game 4] + Mini <Retro> Effort + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Shuttle <Invader> Effort + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + Shuttle <Tempest> Soulkey + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + SUPER ACE + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [Set 1 Results] + Shuttle < Effort Best < Royal Mini < Soulkey sSak > Killer Best > Royal sSak > Killer Best < Effort + Show Spoiler [Set 2 Results] + Best > Royal Best < Effort sSak < Effort Mini < Effort Shuttle > Effort Shuttle < Soulkey + Show Spoiler [FINAL RESULTS] + Effort asserting his ZvP power with an MVP performance | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
MAJOR PROLEAGUE, DEC 17 2023 [Team A] Mini Best Mind Soulkey Queen vs [Team B] Snow Royal Sharp Hero Jaedong SET 1 (PROLEAGUE) Queen <Retro> Royal Mind <Apocalypse> Snow Best <Polypoid> Jaedong Soulkey <Tempest> Hero + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Mini <Invader> Sharp + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + SET 2 (WINNERS LEAGUE) Mini <Tempest> Jaedong + Show Spoiler [Game 2] + Mini <Neo Dark Origin> Hero + Show Spoiler [Game 3] + Mini <Invader> Snow + Show Spoiler [Game 4] + Queen <Apocalypse> Snow + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Soulkey <La Campanella> Snow + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + Soulkey <Retro> Sharp + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + Soulkey <Polypoid> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 8] + Best <Invader> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 9] + Mind <La Campanella> Royal SUPER ACE + Show Spoiler + Soulkey <Polypoid> Snow | ||
RJBTV
193 Posts
MPL: Really Really good winner round and ace match. Peak craft! KPL: Sacsri going super hard this month in KPL. He climbed up all the way to top 5 on ELOBOARD. | ||
RJBTV
193 Posts
On December 17 2023 08:47 TMNT wrote: People tend to resort to all kinds of cliched explanations but imo the main reason is just purely down to chances and variations. When you have a group of 10 or so players at the same level (Major Proleague) and all capable of beating each other on any given day, then they all take turn to win once when the number of tournaments becomes high enough. That's why since Flash's departure, we have had 7 different champions and 11 different finalists in just 7 seasons. A bit like women tennis after the Williams retired lol. It's just not Snow, or Soma, or Hero, or Rush's turn to win. But I mean, Snow did reach the finals twice, but had to face peak Rain (at a time when his PvP is better than Flash's TvT) and then Flash himself. In contrast, Light - a player also touted as the best of his race in recent years - could only enter 2 finals as well, but he got to play out-of-retirement Rain, and Queen. I'm pretty sure Queen is an easier opponent than Flash and out-of-retirement Rain is worse than peak Rain lol. So that's where the bad luck plays a role too. Light did beat prime rain in KSL though. Rain gets back into form extremely quick. You're entirely right though that Flash was in a sense an anomaly. He was better than everyone else, and while that didn't mean he was by default goin to win the tournament, it did mean that potential champions were likely to get eliminated by him. And as we saw after his retirement we've had a much wider variety of finalists because the level right below flash is much more tight knit. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
On December 20 2023 00:26 RJBTV wrote: Light did beat prime rain in KSL though. Rain gets back into form extremely quick. You're entirely right though that Flash was in a sense an anomaly. He was better than everyone else, and while that didn't mean he was by default goin to win the tournament, it did mean that potential champions were likely to get eliminated by him. And as we saw after his retirement we've had a much wider variety of finalists because the level right below flash is much more tight knit. Yeah I forgot about KSL. But the point remains valid still if you look at it from the matchup perspective. Having to beat Rain in PvP back then is like a Terran having to beat Flash or a Zerg having to beat peak JD. Light playing TvP against Rain in those finals is more like Snow playing Royal or Rush, or maybe Snow playing Hero or Queen. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
MAJOR PROLEAGUE, DEC 20 2023 [Team A] Mini Rush Hero Jaedong vs [Team B] Best Royal JYJ Soulkey SET 1 (PROLEAGUE) Jaedong <Blitz Y> Soulkey Mini <Radeon> Royal Rush <Troy> Best Hero <Retro> JYJ + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Jaedong <Apocalypse> Soulkey + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + Hero <Neo Dark Origin> Best + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + Mini <Citadel> Soulkey SET 2 (WINNERS LEAGUE) Mini <Retro> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 2] + Mini <Blitz Y> Soulkey + Show Spoiler [Game 3] + Mini <Troy> Best + Show Spoiler [Game 4] + Mini <Radeon> JYJ + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + SUPER ACE + Show Spoiler + Mini <Citadel> Soulkey + Show Spoiler [Set 1 Results] + Jaedong < Soulkey Mini < Royal Rush > Best Hero < JYJ Jaedong > Soulkey Hero > Best Mini < Soulkey + Show Spoiler [Set 2 Results] + Mini > Royal Mini > Soulkey Mini > Best Mini > JYJ + Show Spoiler [FINAL RESULTS] + Mini blew hot and cold during the span of a Proleague, performing an all kill in set 2, yet losing all his other games in set 1 and the super ace. It's one of those days where determining a MVP is really difficult: is it Mini with an all kill but a record of 4-3, or is it Soulkey with a record of 3-2 but he won the super ace? | ||
Malongo
Chile3466 Posts
On December 17 2023 08:47 TMNT wrote: People tend to resort to all kinds of cliched explanations but imo the main reason is just purely down to chances and variations. When you have a group of 10 or so players at the same level (Major Proleague) and all capable of beating each other on any given day, then they all take turn to win once when the number of tournaments becomes high enough. That's why since Flash's departure, we have had 7 different champions and 11 different finalists in just 7 seasons. A bit like women tennis after the Williams retired lol. It's just not Snow, or Soma, or Hero, or Rush's turn to win. But I mean, Snow did reach the finals twice, but had to face peak Rain (at a time when his PvP is better than Flash's TvT) and then Flash himself. In contrast, Light - a player also touted as the best of his race in recent years - could only enter 2 finals as well, but he got to play out-of-retirement Rain, and Queen. I'm pretty sure Queen is an easier opponent than Flash and out-of-retirement Rain is worse than peak Rain lol. So that's where the bad luck plays a role too. I disagree with that, mostly because Snow hasn't been as consistent as other players. ASL 16 Out by Killer and Royal. Killer lost miserably next round and should have been an easy win on all counts. Losing twice to Royal is not something that happens regularly. Neither of them even made it to playoffs. ASL 15 Out by light and Sk, I guess that's kind of within range, but Best that is supposedly behind in PL got out beating both. ASL 14 Got smashed by hero in ro8. ASL 13 Out by Royal and Ggaemo of all people. As much as variance can affect you would expect him to do way better compared to how other P players like Best, Bisu and Mini do. I think he just doesn't care at this point. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
On December 20 2023 22:35 Malongo wrote: I disagree with that, mostly because Snow hasn't been as consistent as other players. ASL 16 Out by Killer and Royal. Killer lost miserably next round and should have been an easy win on all counts. Losing twice to Royal is not something that happens regularly. Neither of them even made it to playoffs. ASL 15 Out by light and Sk, I guess that's kind of within range, but Best that is supposedly behind in PL got out beating both. ASL 14 Got smashed by hero in ro8. ASL 13 Out by Royal and Ggaemo of all people. As much as variance can affect you would expect him to do way better compared to how other P players like Best, Bisu and Mini do. I think he just doesn't care at this point. You got things mixed up a little bit. ASL16 he lost once to Royal, not twice. ASL13 he lost twice to ggaemo, didn't play Royal. But when you talked about being as consistent as others, it seems like it's based on a feeling rather than factual check. Best is a far worse and less consistent player in ASL than Snow. Never made it into finals. Bisu never made an ASL finals. Bombed out of Ro24/16/8 in the same fashion as Snow. Just last season he lost twice to Ample. Mini while achieved great things, is the definition of an inconsistent player. Not sure that needs to be demonstrated more. Royal fluked a title playing mostly TvZ. He never made it past Ro8 before that season. And after that season, hasn't even won a game in Ro16. JYJ fluked another title in the same way. And he's overall a worse player than Royal. As good as Soulkey is now, that was his first ASL finals in 16 seasons (I know he won a KSL though). Light has literally the same kind of ups and downs in ASL history as Snow. Out of Ro24/16 many times, losing to opponents he was expected to beat. Made 2 finals as well but he won 1 and I mentioned above that his opponents in the finals were not as strong as Snow's. Hero is actually the most consistent ASL player since his discharge from military service. Hasn't made a finals yet. It's actually Snow's reputation/success online that harms his image in ASL. If you look at his ASL results solely, it's really not different to other top players. | ||
Nirli
Bulgaria273 Posts
On December 20 2023 22:35 Malongo wrote: I disagree with that, mostly because Snow hasn't been as consistent as other players. ASL 16 Out by Killer and Royal. Killer lost miserably next round and should have been an easy win on all counts. Losing twice to Royal is not something that happens regularly. Neither of them even made it to playoffs. ASL 15 Out by light and Sk, I guess that's kind of within range, but Best that is supposedly behind in PL got out beating both. ASL 14 Got smashed by hero in ro8. ASL 13 Out by Royal and Ggaemo of all people. As much as variance can affect you would expect him to do way better compared to how other P players like Best, Bisu and Mini do. I think he just doesn't care at this point. Don't bother. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
Fuck off | ||
Malongo
Chile3466 Posts
On December 21 2023 00:37 TMNT wrote: You got things mixed up a little bit. ASL16 he lost once to Royal, not twice. ASL13 he lost twice to ggaemo, didn't play Royal. But when you talked about being as consistent as others, it seems like it's based on a feeling rather than factual check. Best is a far worse and less consistent player in ASL than Snow. Never made it into finals. Bisu never made an ASL finals. Bombed out of Ro24/16/8 in the same fashion as Snow. Just last season he lost twice to Ample. Mini while achieved great things, is the definition of an inconsistent player. Not sure that needs to be demonstrated more. Royal fluked a title playing mostly TvZ. He never made it past Ro8 before that season. And after that season, hasn't even won a game in Ro16. JYJ fluked another title in the same way. And he's overall a worse player than Royal. As good as Soulkey is now, that was his first ASL finals in 16 seasons (I know he won a KSL though). Light has literally the same kind of ups and downs in ASL history as Snow. Out of Ro24/16 many times, losing to opponents he was expected to beat. Made 2 finals as well but he won 1 and I mentioned above that his opponents in the finals were not as strong as Snow's. Hero is actually the most consistent ASL player since his discharge from military service. Hasn't made a finals yet. It's actually Snow's reputation/success online that harms his image in ASL. If you look at his ASL results solely, it's really not different to other top players. We are talking about different things tbh. You are looking at all the asl tournaments, I'm just looking at the last year. My hypothesis is that once he reached those 2 finals and failed to materialize he just doesn't care as much about it. I don't buy the variance argument because that same variance should appear in PL. | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
On December 21 2023 14:01 Malongo wrote: It's the same story within the last year too. Players have ups and downs all the time in ASL:We are talking about different things tbh. You are looking at all the asl tournaments, I'm just looking at the last year. My hypothesis is that once he reached those 2 finals and failed to materialize he just doesn't care as much about it. I don't buy the variance argument because that same variance should appear in PL. JYJ out of Ro24 the season right before his championship. Royal hasn't won a single Ro16 game for two seasons after his championship. Mini out of Ro24 the season right before his lastest runner up finish Light and Soma both out of Ro24 and Ro16 each, over the last two seasons, despite being the leaders of their race in PL that whole time. Variances do appear in PL. You just didn't see it in the grand scale. Players can lose today and win tomorrow, or lose in 1st set and go on an all kill in 2nd set. It depends on the matchups they get as well. They all have winning and losing streaks. But at the end of the month/quarter/year, when sample size is big enough for everyone, they all return to where they should be in the ranking. In ASL, there's no tomorrow or 2nd set to rectify. If you lose you're out. | ||
ruhtraeel
Canada79 Posts
On December 20 2023 00:26 RJBTV wrote: Light did beat prime rain in KSL though. Rain gets back into form extremely quick. You're entirely right though that Flash was in a sense an anomaly. He was better than everyone else, and while that didn't mean he was by default goin to win the tournament, it did mean that potential champions were likely to get eliminated by him. And as we saw after his retirement we've had a much wider variety of finalists because the level right below flash is much more tight knit. Just want to throw out there that prime Rain's PvT was average at best, and I often see him grossly overrated in this area If Snow at least had Best's PvZ, he'd probably at least have more than one finals appearance There was a while when it looked like he had it figured out, then fooled us all by getting crushed by Zergs for another 3 seasons in a row | ||
Magic Powers
Austria2661 Posts
On December 21 2023 14:01 Malongo wrote: We are talking about different things tbh. You are looking at all the asl tournaments, I'm just looking at the last year. My hypothesis is that once he reached those 2 finals and failed to materialize he just doesn't care as much about it. I don't buy the variance argument because that same variance should appear in PL. PL has way less variance than ASL. If you flip a coin 10 times, it's nearly impossible to flip only heads (~0.1% chance). If you do only 5 flips, the chance increases to 3.125%. That's 32 times more likely. And the chance doubles every time you remove one flip, so 4 flips = 6.25%, 3 flips = 12.5%, etc. You can see how quickly the odds go from very unlikely to fairly common. This is why there are so many different ASL winners when all the top players are roughly equally matched, with no one like Flash dominating the field. He had ~75% winrate per game, which translates into ridiculously high odds of winning tournaments compared to the competition. No such dominating player exists currently. | ||
Malongo
Chile3466 Posts
On December 21 2023 15:20 TMNT wrote: It's the same story within the last year too. Players have ups and downs all the time in ASL: JYJ out of Ro24 the season right before his championship. Royal hasn't won a single Ro16 game for two seasons after his championship. Mini out of Ro24 the season right before his lastest runner up finish Light and Soma both out of Ro24 and Ro16 each, over the last two seasons, despite being the leaders of their race in PL that whole time. Variances do appear in PL. You just didn't see it in the grand scale. Players can lose today and win tomorrow, or lose in 1st set and go on an all kill in 2nd set. It depends on the matchups they get as well. They all have winning and losing streaks. But at the end of the month/quarter/year, when sample size is big enough for everyone, they all return to where they should be in the ranking. In ASL, there's no tomorrow or 2nd set to rectify. If you lose you're out. And I just don't agree that all ASL players are at the same level (well there is reason they sort themselves in two different leagues anyways). Statistics can only get you so far, there is not a "grand scale". | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
MAJOR PROLEAGUE, DEC 21 2023 [Team A] Stork Shuttle Soulkey Jaedong Queen vs [Team B] Best Royal Rush Barracks ggaemo SET 1 (PROLEAGUE) Jaedong <Retro> Royal Queen <Apocalypse> Rush Shuttle <Radeon> Best Stork <Blitz Y> Barracks + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Soulkey <Citadel> ggaemo + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + Soulkey <Troy> Rush + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + SET 2 (WINNERS LEAGUE) Shuttle <Retro> Rush + Show Spoiler [Game 2] + Stork <Neo Dark Origin> Rush + Show Spoiler [Game 3] + Jaedong <Radeon> Rush + Show Spoiler [Game 4] + Jaedong <Citadel> Barracks + Show Spoiler [Game 5] + Jaedong <Troy> Best + Show Spoiler [Game 6] + Jaedong <Blitz Y> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 7] + Soulkey <Apocalypse> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 8] + Queen <Citadel> Royal + Show Spoiler [Game 9] + Queen <Troy> ggaemo SUPER ACE + Show Spoiler + Shuttle <Apocalypse> Royal + Show Spoiler [Set 1 Results] + Jaedong < Royal Queen < Rush Shuttle > Best Stork > Barracks Soulkey > ggaemo Soulkey > Rush + Show Spoiler [Set 2 Results] + Shuttle < Rush Stork < Rush Jaedong > Rush Jaedong > Barracks Jaedong > Best Jaedong < Royal Soulkey < Royal Queen > Royal Queen < ggaemo + Show Spoiler [FINAL RESULTS] + | ||
TMNT
1833 Posts
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