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On April 03 2012 14:41 bearbuddy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2012 11:23 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 06:20 Kiett wrote:On April 03 2012 05:42 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 04:01 bearbuddy wrote:
Don't think a zerg is capable of taking a game off of Flash. Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there. Jaedong is near 50% against Flash, over a fairly large sample size. Check your facts. The most recent JD vs Flash Bo5s: Flash 3-1 Jaedong (Korean Air OSL S2) Flash 3-2 Jaedong (Bigfile MSL) Flash 3-0 Jaedong (Hana Daetoo MSL) Winning a large number of Bo1s over a long period of time is not the same as being able to win a Bo5. The last time Jaedong managed to beat Flash in a BoX was over 2 years ago, and with a power outage to boot. Check the original statement I was refuting: "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." Using past history, and the statistics you provided, I don't really see any indication that Flash can be reliably expected to 3-0 Jaedong in a Bo 5. In fact, after losing those BO series to Flash, Jaedong improved his ZvT tremendously, to the point that it could be his best current matchup. If you check the statistics, he is almost 75% for ~ past year vs T (nearly all against top tier terrans), and the improvement has been observable through his play style as well (not just statistically). If Jaedong has retained that form (after dealing with Oz disbanding) would I favour him against Flash? Not specifically, but he should be able to win a fair proportion of the games/matches - and perhaps even hover somewhere around parity. I never originally commented on whether or not Jaedong would currently be able to win a Bo series against Flash, just the significant improbability that Flash would be able to 3-0 him consistently. JD 4 pooled for his lone win in the Korean Air, which is why I had the qualifier "barring some early game shenanigan". This puts it at 2 times out of 3 times where Flash essentially 3-0'd JD in bo5. Also note that this is pre-surgery Flash. Flash has yet to lose to a single zerg this season. While JD's ZvT is astounding the previous year, ask anyone how his ZvT form is this season and you'll get a collective meh.
Everything you wrote above, was accurate enough; however, that doesn't make the original statement - "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." - correct. Essentially, in order for that statement to be correct, you would have to be confident that Flash will win 100% of games in 100% of Bo5s against any(out of all) given zerg players, given an infinite number of trials. This is obviously and easily false. Flash will lose games, late game or otherwise to any zerg player, given a large enough sample size (he has only won 3 TvZ games of any note this year) and in particular to Jaedong (current form withstanding) .
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On April 04 2012 11:39 miercat wrote:Show nested quote +On April 03 2012 14:41 bearbuddy wrote:On April 03 2012 11:23 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 06:20 Kiett wrote:On April 03 2012 05:42 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 04:01 bearbuddy wrote:
Don't think a zerg is capable of taking a game off of Flash. Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there. Jaedong is near 50% against Flash, over a fairly large sample size. Check your facts. The most recent JD vs Flash Bo5s: Flash 3-1 Jaedong (Korean Air OSL S2) Flash 3-2 Jaedong (Bigfile MSL) Flash 3-0 Jaedong (Hana Daetoo MSL) Winning a large number of Bo1s over a long period of time is not the same as being able to win a Bo5. The last time Jaedong managed to beat Flash in a BoX was over 2 years ago, and with a power outage to boot. Check the original statement I was refuting: "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." Using past history, and the statistics you provided, I don't really see any indication that Flash can be reliably expected to 3-0 Jaedong in a Bo 5. In fact, after losing those BO series to Flash, Jaedong improved his ZvT tremendously, to the point that it could be his best current matchup. If you check the statistics, he is almost 75% for ~ past year vs T (nearly all against top tier terrans), and the improvement has been observable through his play style as well (not just statistically). If Jaedong has retained that form (after dealing with Oz disbanding) would I favour him against Flash? Not specifically, but he should be able to win a fair proportion of the games/matches - and perhaps even hover somewhere around parity. I never originally commented on whether or not Jaedong would currently be able to win a Bo series against Flash, just the significant improbability that Flash would be able to 3-0 him consistently. JD 4 pooled for his lone win in the Korean Air, which is why I had the qualifier "barring some early game shenanigan". This puts it at 2 times out of 3 times where Flash essentially 3-0'd JD in bo5. Also note that this is pre-surgery Flash. Flash has yet to lose to a single zerg this season. While JD's ZvT is astounding the previous year, ask anyone how his ZvT form is this season and you'll get a collective meh. Everything you wrote above, was accurate enough; however, that doesn't make the original statement - "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." - correct. Essentially, in order for that statement to be correct, you would have to be confident that Flash will win 100% of games in 100% of Bo5s against any(out of all) given zerg players, given an infinite number of trials. This is obviously and easily false. Flash will lose games, late game or otherwise to any zerg player, given a large enough sample size (he has only won 3 TvZ games of any note this year) and in particular to Jaedong (current form withstanding) .
Okay, yeah, obviously no progamer is ever gonna have 100% win rate against another pro. My bad.
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On April 05 2012 04:17 bearbuddy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 11:39 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 14:41 bearbuddy wrote:On April 03 2012 11:23 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 06:20 Kiett wrote:On April 03 2012 05:42 miercat wrote:On April 03 2012 04:01 bearbuddy wrote:
Don't think a zerg is capable of taking a game off of Flash. Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there. Jaedong is near 50% against Flash, over a fairly large sample size. Check your facts. The most recent JD vs Flash Bo5s: Flash 3-1 Jaedong (Korean Air OSL S2) Flash 3-2 Jaedong (Bigfile MSL) Flash 3-0 Jaedong (Hana Daetoo MSL) Winning a large number of Bo1s over a long period of time is not the same as being able to win a Bo5. The last time Jaedong managed to beat Flash in a BoX was over 2 years ago, and with a power outage to boot. Check the original statement I was refuting: "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." Using past history, and the statistics you provided, I don't really see any indication that Flash can be reliably expected to 3-0 Jaedong in a Bo 5. In fact, after losing those BO series to Flash, Jaedong improved his ZvT tremendously, to the point that it could be his best current matchup. If you check the statistics, he is almost 75% for ~ past year vs T (nearly all against top tier terrans), and the improvement has been observable through his play style as well (not just statistically). If Jaedong has retained that form (after dealing with Oz disbanding) would I favour him against Flash? Not specifically, but he should be able to win a fair proportion of the games/matches - and perhaps even hover somewhere around parity. I never originally commented on whether or not Jaedong would currently be able to win a Bo series against Flash, just the significant improbability that Flash would be able to 3-0 him consistently. JD 4 pooled for his lone win in the Korean Air, which is why I had the qualifier "barring some early game shenanigan". This puts it at 2 times out of 3 times where Flash essentially 3-0'd JD in bo5. Also note that this is pre-surgery Flash. Flash has yet to lose to a single zerg this season. While JD's ZvT is astounding the previous year, ask anyone how his ZvT form is this season and you'll get a collective meh. Everything you wrote above, was accurate enough; however, that doesn't make the original statement - "Barring some early game shenanigans, Flash would 3-0 every zerg out there." - correct. Essentially, in order for that statement to be correct, you would have to be confident that Flash will win 100% of games in 100% of Bo5s against any(out of all) given zerg players, given an infinite number of trials. This is obviously and easily false. Flash will lose games, late game or otherwise to any zerg player, given a large enough sample size (he has only won 3 TvZ games of any note this year) and in particular to Jaedong (current form withstanding) . Okay, yeah, obviously no progamer is ever gonna have 100% win rate against another pro. My bad.
It's alright; seems like just a matter of less than optimal phrasing - easily correctable.
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why no updates in gamers personal record pages?
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On April 09 2012 03:51 Nefas wrote:
why no updates in players personal record pages?
The games are listed under "Offline Events"
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On April 09 2012 03:53 e_i_pi_1_0 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2012 03:51 Nefas wrote:
why no updates in players personal record pages? The games are listed under "Offline Events"
just looked, these games missed there
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On April 09 2012 03:57 Nefas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2012 03:53 e_i_pi_1_0 wrote:On April 09 2012 03:51 Nefas wrote:
why no updates in players personal record pages? The games are listed under "Offline Events" just looked, these games missed there
Huh, actually, you're right, whoops.
I'm surprised the prelim results aren't updated.
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EPT
