Why STX SouL Will Win the Proleague FLUKE WINS ARE FLUKEY STX IS STILL THE BEST TEAM IN PROLEAGUE by Ideas
Almost exactly 2 years ago forum veteran and legend thedeadhaji wrote this article about why he believed Lecaf Oz would win the Proleague finals. Although haji’s prediction ultimately proved wrong (Lecaf lost to Samsung in the finals), Lecaf went on to win the next Proleague in a dominating fashion. Today I’m going to re-enact thedeadhaji’s article with a new underdog team, and hopefully convince you all that STX SouL will win this season’s Proleague.
The future Proleague champions
1. Hunger
Just like Lecaf Oz in July of 2007, STX SouL has never won a Proleague before. In fact, they haven’t been to a Proleague final since 2004. In fact, No one on STX SouL has ever even won a title before July earned his Golden Mouse in the EVER08 OSL shortly after joining STX. STX is hungry to win something, especially what may be the last Proleague to finish before StarCraft 2 inevitably comes out, and they’ve never had a better shot.
2. The Aces
STX is known for 1 thing above all else when talking about Proleague: no S-class players but a plethora of A-class ones. Currently two STX players stand a good level above the rest, and although still not quite S-class, Calm and Kal are definintely leaders in the scene. Calm finished in 5th place in the Proleague rankings, going 40-21 (65.6%), while Kal finished almost right below him in 7th place at 34-23 (59.6%). Together they made up the vast majority of STX’s ace picks, with Calm going 5-3 and Kal going 4-5. Calm and Kal are currently the #7 and #8 in ELO rankings as well.
Calm has quietly but certainly become the best, most well-rounded player on STX over the last few months (specifically Round 5 of Proleague). Currently the highest rated ELO on his team, Calm has risen from mediocrity this season of Proleague (no doubt thanks in part to the arrival of July on the team). Currently sporting an over 60% winning rate since the beginning of round 1 back in October, Calm has quickly become the undisputed #3 Zerg in the world (only behind Jaedong and Effort in ELO ratings currently).
Calm has no “weak” matchup, although his ZvP and ZvT put on a much better performance than his ZvZ. His ZvP in particular has become quite fearsome like all his Zerg teammates, with none other than Bisu (and 1 game from Free back in October) being the ONLY Protoss to take games off of him since the start of this season of Proleague. Although originally known for being a cheesy player who cannot sustain himself in the late game, Calm has proven over the past few months that although having one of the best mid-game’s of any Zerg, he can definitely also hold his own in the late game. 2.2
Kal is my favorite Protoss player and one of my all-time favorite players to watch. Kal’s shuttle play, particularly in PvT, is some of the most entertaining micro in all of Professional StarCraft in my opinion. Kal doesn’t exactly do very extravagant or unique cheese or strategies, but he has some of the most unique improvised decisions and micro of any player. Above all else Kal is one of my favorite players to watch because when I watch him play he -above everyone else- actually looks (in his gameplay) like he is having fun playing the game.
Kal was the 1st STX player to ever reach the finals of any individual tournament when he reached the finals of the GOMTV MSL S4 where he lost 1-3 to none other than Jaedong. Since then he has reached 2 more semifinals but has never reached another final, mostly because of his notorious inconsistence. Kal will often boggle minds by losing games that seemingly no Progamer should lose (such as his infamous lose to Shine[kal] where he lost to 2-hatch hydra AFTER scouting it beforehand with ample time to prepare) while still maintaining a well-rounded win-rate and a high ELO (Kal is currently comfortably sitting at the #2 ELO rated Protoss player in Korea).
But sometime in between the end of Round 4 and the beginning of Round 5 of Proleague, Kal suddenly decided to stop losing games that he shouldn’t, going 7-2 with loses only to fantasy (who is nigh-unstoppable in TvP right now) and backho (large BO disadvantage). If Kal can put his very dangerous PvZ back together, he just may reclaim his spot as STX’s #1 player from Calm. 3.0 The Brains
In april 2008 JulyZerg transferred to STX from SK Telecom 1 and soon after became the 1st Zerg and 2nd player ever to win a golden mouse, and also becoming the 1st player to ever win a Starleague while wearing an STX uniform. In the EVER2008 OSL July went on an absolute ZvP tear going 12-2 the whole tournament and continued to absolutely dominate Protoss players since (he currently has the highest ZvP ELO of any player). Since the EVER2008 OSL July has managed to dodge playing non-ZvP matches a lot, but has shown that while having S-class ZvP and A-class ZvT (just watch his recent series vs Skyhigh), his ZvZ has suffered greatly. July has gone a measly 3-12 in ZvZ since his OSL victory (compared to 9-7 vs Terran and 20-7 vs Protoss). July has done better in Proleague on STX than he has done on other teams in the past, going 17 and 8 in Proleague this season. July did not play for STX at all in round 5 though, as I suspect he insisted to stay on the bench this round so that he can work on winning the GSL, where he currently is about to play Flash in the semifinals (his weak ZvZ might be considered too much of a weakness for Proleague also).
July’s biggest contribution to STX has not been his results in Proleague though, it is the impact he has had on the team. In early 2008 STX was a team of juniors; Hwasin, a young player himself was the most experienced player and captain of the team. July has given STX the leadership and seniority that they have needed, and the impact he has had on the team, specifically the Zerg players, is undeniable. July helped raise hero’s monster ZvP and develop Calm into a true top-tier Zerg, all the while regaining some of his own former ZvT skill. STX now has the most fearsome Zerg lineup of any team in the league, and it is they who will lead STX to victory this season. In his recent write-up, riptide refers to STX as “July’s boys”, and although July was only officially Captain for a short time, it’s clear that this truly is his team. Tushin has found a home.
4.0 back-up
Although some teams such as SKT1 can compare to STX in having 2 or 3 highly ranked players, it is the rest of the lineup that gives STX such an edge in the playoffs. STX has a total of SIX players in the top 40 ELO, with an average ranking of 17.67, only CJ Entus can compete (actually they have the same amount of players in the top 40 with a slightly lower ranking of 17, but with half of their top players somewhat slumping it doesn’t look good). These are the men that make things easier for Calm and Kal.
Hwasin has long been the face of STX. Until Kal burst onto the scene in late 07, Hwasin was for a long time the sole SouL member performing well in Individual leagues (PUNS!). At his peak, Hwasin was a serious contender for best Terran in Korea, dominating not just in TvZ (that has long been his staple matchup) but putting up results all 3 matchups. Although Hwasin is no longer the best player on STX, he still is a strong component.
In late 2008 Hwasin entered one of the biggest slumps of his career, most notably performing quite poorly in Proleague, causing STX to start experimenting with their rookie Terran’s to varying success (for a while Notice looked like he might have been the next big player from STX). Despite his lackluster proleague performance Hwasin has repeatedly qualified for the individual leagues. At one point it seemed that all Hwasin could win was TvZ.
Then suddenly Hwasin decided to not suck in Proleague, going 4-0 in round 5 and giving STX the sorely needed Terran consistency that had been killing them in rounds 3 and 4.
Hero made a name for himself in the Batoo OSL where he eliminated (at the time) Bisu in the Ro36 2-0 (I would like to point out I’ve been a fan of hero ever since he pulled that sweet fake-drop into real-drop against Bisu on Colosseum 2 in Round 1). He quickly came to fame as the “neo-JulyZerg” sharing a common play-style. Despite his impressive performance in the Batoo OSL (reaching the semis where he lost a “respectable” 0-3 to JAEDONG), by.hero was used sparingly on STX’s PL lineup until the 5th round, where he went 5-1. Although he had impressive results vs Terran in the Batoo OSL (defeating teammate Hwasin the Ro8 and beating fantasy and leta in his Ro16 group) he is currently on a losing streak vs Terran. Although he goes for some ballsy 2-hatch builds like Calm, he goes even ballsier and has mostly failed with a lot of them in the past few months. I think next season if he hones his ZvT to be a bit safer he can truly become a monster.
It is not hero’s ZvP that is his biggest asset for STX in Proleague right now though. Since his 0-3 lose to Jaedong in Batoo, he has gone undefeated vs Zerg opponents (currently on a 7-game winning streak). Assuming he avoids a decent Terran in the playoffs (and of course Jaedong), STX can count on a win from him. 4.3
Let me get this out in the open: Shuttle is good. Not great, but good. It is my opinion that if he didn’t have Kal to compete with for a Proleague spot on a team that only has room for 1 Protoss on their roster he would be a Proleague regular. Shuttle has faced Flash 5 times in the last month and despite going 1-4 vs him, you cannot deny that he didn’t play very well. It would be very unexpected if Shuttle doesn’t qualify for a Starleague next season.
Shuttle has a solid PvT and PvZ, and a very good PvP(just watch his game vs Bisu on Neo Medusa), going 6-2 for his career on TV and not losing an offline PvP since February 08. Expect Shuttle to make an appearance in every single playoff match STX plays, because he deserves it. 4.4
Mostly known for being a huge reason why STX went only 4-7 in round 4, Modesty has only ever played ZvZ in Proleague. EVER. Clearly STX uses modesty as a ZvZ “sniper”, although it appears he’s got a bit of nerves. I think lately he has fought his nerves and is doing decent enough for a rookie Zerg in Proleague, but to be honest I would only expect Modesty to show up if STX were playing a Zerg-heavy team or used to try to snipe a Zerg. It is clear with STX’s consistent use of modesty vs Zerg (he almost always plays on ZvZ havens such as Battle Royal or Raid Assault II) that he MUST be the best ZvZer in-house despite having worse results than his teammates. If he can get past his TV nerves, Modesty will be a threat to any Zerg player. 4.5
Most known for beating Firebathero in the GSL S2, Bogus has had a small quiet career where he has managed to achieve a >55% winning ratio in every matchup. With a career 9-6 in televised games, Bogus is still quite young and inexperienced, but clearly has the most potential to eventually replace Hwasin as STX’s go-to Terran. If STX uses any Terran players besides Hwasin in the playoffs, expect it to be this little man.
During Winners League, it appeared as though STX had a new Terran on the block who could in time be a real Starleague contender. In February Notice all-killed ACE and 3-killed Hite. He said in a winner’s interview that he wanted to play flash (as his best matchup is TvT and Flash is THE TvTer to beat). Shortly after his wish came true and he battled it out with Flash on Neo Harmony, where Flash took a decisive win. 3 days after that he 3-killed Hite and then “slumped”, almost never showing up on the roster and failing to qualify for either Starleague (as well as being eliminated early by Iris in the GSL). Notice is still very young with a lot of potential, but it seems as though his Winners League success was a premature fluke. Don’t expect Notice to appear on STX’s lineup in the playoffs unless he has something special whipped up.
5.0 culture change
In this terrific article written almost 2 years ago by forum legend HonestTea, all 12 Proleague teams are profiled. He wrote about how STX’s biggest moment in the sun was Yooi apologizing to the STX fans after losing the 2005 Season 2 Proleague.
“See, Soul still suffers from a culture of losing. They are simply too used to not being good enough, to falling behind in the standings, to typing "gg" before their opponent. When Soul wins, they seem uncomfortable by the very fact that they were victorious, like some nerd who managed to get to second base with a girl but doesn't know what to do next. This is a problem, because Soul is Peter Parker after the bite.” – HontestTea, September 2007
He then went on to note that STX is certainly changing, a team full of young players with tons of potential, a new sponsor, and a new ace (Hwasin). It may of have taken a while, but SouL has finally blossomed into a team of winners. When July won the Golden Mouse, he didn’t just give hope to every “old-school” player but also to every single member of STX. They too might have what it takes to win, that even the underdog has a chance. STX players now know that they do have what it takes to win, that they deserve to win, and that they will win. STX will go to the Grand Finals where they will face SKT Telecom 1, and STX’s transformation into champions will be completed upon their victory.
You may consider this maybe just some romantic ramblings of a currently-unemployed STX fanboy with a lot of free time on his hands, but I truly love to watch STX SouL play, and they have made StarCraft a passion of mine more than any of the other players. STX may lack an S-class player to lead them, but they all play in a more entertaining and endearing style than any other team in the league. It always hurts when I see STX Proleague live report threads getting totally out-posted and out-viewed by the opposing LR thread, and during round 4 I felt like there were only 2 or 3 other STX fans outside of Korea. With STX doing so much better right now I’m pleased to see the new STX icons below posts, and I hope that STX will gain even more fans. Not for their results, but for the enjoyment they bring to viewers when they play. STX is the most fun team to watch, and I hope as they presumably tear it up in the layoffs, more and more people will see that.
Nice article I definitely see STX as the team of younger players with driving ambition. They have a very fresh and youthful image here in Korea and their energy and determination seems to have paid off this season so far. Also they're lucky enough to have just enough veterans July/Hwasin to coach the youngest members of the team. (Plus they have the nicest fanclub members around who would do anything for their team.)
On July 15 2009 08:19 Last Romantic wrote: I will attribute their success to the new skinny jeans.
I wouldnt. They 1st got the new jeans in the beginning of round 4, where they did performed the worst in. Maybe they are just now getting used to the jeans or something though
I voted for CJ in Liquibet, but it was a really tough decision. CJ and STX are so similar in that they're both very deep teams and the players are all roughly equally ranked compared to one another. If STX can make it past CJ I definitely see them as a huge threat to take the title, simply because no other can match the depth of STX's lineup (CJ being the only exception).
The reason I ended up going with CJ was STX's lack of a definitive ace player, whereas CJ has Effort to rely on.
Calm and Kal still have to reach their top, and July and Hwasin are not on their prime anymore. All the other guys are maybe "good", but I don't think that's enough to win the PL.
CJ and SKT1 have much stronger lineups at the moment.
Great player breakdown. Yeah, I'd agree that they've got a pretty good chance. STX is one of the few teams that really impresses me in terms of being a "team." They've got a lot of great players which compliment each other both by race and playstyle.
On July 15 2009 08:56 zazen wrote: Calm and Kal still have to reach their top, and July and Hwasin are not on their prime anymore. All the other guys are maybe "good", but I don't think that's enough to win the PL.
CJ and SKT1 have much stronger lineups at the moment.
Is everyone oblivious to the fact that Skyhigh's been doing bad recently?
STX fighting! I've always supported this team, I really hope they get some great wins in this season. I love hearing about STX ships in the news, and people are like "wtf how do you know about this company" and then I proceed to explain that they sponsor a team of guys in spacesuits (actually almost normal clothes nowadays!) who compete in a video game :p. Seriously, how could you not love this team? Hwasin, July, Hero, Calm and Kal? I don't like shuttle's gameplay though. But Kal is pretty much the only protoss player in enjoy watching.
Bo7 format is sooooooooo good for SouL. Although you're preaching to the converted, great article. Everything is set in motion; it looks like STX's time has finally come.
STX's lineup is really deep, but I just don't see them making it all the way from their playoff with KHAN to the Grand Final against T1 (though they'd be the favorite against OZ purely by depth).
I feel stupid as STX is my favorite team and i know most there lineup but my STX brain must be on hold position cause....Shuttle = YoonJoong? correct? i Always mix up YoonJoong and SoO
Well if T1 wasn't in the grand final already I'd say STX would win. But for now they are my number 2 pick. However, someone needs to emerge as a star. If they go into a game 7 things might get ugly. With your possible future opponents having Effort, Leta, Jaedong, or Bisu your ace needs more then just practice time. I realize July has the experience and mind for an ace match but having to go up against one of the 5 hottest players around doesn't look too good for him.
So anything less then 7 games favors stx and going to that 7th game favors the opponent. This of course doesn't apply to stx vs khan as July's only real threat (FBH) is playing terrible.
I'm disappointed we won't see Bogus at all in the opening round. This is partly because he's quietly a decent player, and partly because he's the goofiest looking pro-gamer around.
If EffOrt is a zergling or ultralisk, then Bogus is a science vessel; all rounded and silly-looking. Love that kid.
great article. STX could easily reach the finals, while Kal has always been good im finding Calm's recent plays excellent, and all the other players are goodish aswell, giving STX the depth no other team has at the moment!
stx was really amazing this round it's such a shame that notice and hwasin are so inconsistent because both players have an unbelievable amount of skill
On July 15 2009 11:30 illu wrote: Did you just call July having A-class ZvT? Before his series with Skyhigh he hasn't played satisfactary ZvT for years.
He has had good ZvT ever since December 08. Just watch his game vs firebathero on chupung-ryeong (this was about 2 weeks after FBH defeated JD twice).
In theory this is a pittiful line up compared to SKT . SKT: two S class players Bisu, Fantasy three A class players have been selected for ... recent PowerRanks :D: Canata, Best,TheZerg.
Which Stx player was listed on PR? Hwasin, Kal, Calm. That's all Stx has :D
On July 15 2009 12:23 geod wrote: In theory this is a pittiful line up compared to SKT . SKT: two S class players Bisu, Fantasy three A class players have been selected for ... recent PowerRanks :D: Canata, Best,TheZerg.
Which Stx player was listed on PR? Hwasin, Kal, Calm. That's all Stx has :D
What are you talking about Best hasnt been anywhere near a power rank since January and TheZerg is an sktzerg has a 44% lifetime. Both of their performances have been absolutely abysmal.
On July 15 2009 11:19 peidongyang wrote: STX is a good team but bisu/best/fantasy?
aww cmon gimme a break.
After them and Canata the skill level kind of plummets. Don't get me wrong, they're a good team with some amazing players (which shows in their current #1 rank), but you can't argue that they're the deepest. They don't have a leg to stand on when it comes to zerg, making their players easier to snipe and impairing them due to the fact that they must play a zerg each match. In a bo7, STX has them beat.
On July 15 2009 12:43 3clipse wrote: In a bo7, STX has them beat.
I have to disagree with this statement.
In a Bo7 series there are 6 games and an ace. I think we can agree that T1 is favored in the ace matchup with the #1 protoss and a top 3 Terran. So to get to a predicted ace match T1 needs to win 3 games of the 6.
First is Bisu who is favored vs everyone at the moment.
Second is Fantasy who can definitely beat anyone on STX. The strongest player Kal is Fantasy's strongest matchup. I don't think any of the zergs can handle his odd prepared builds so this is a pretty solid 2nd win.
Third is Canata who is either favored or equal to all the zerg/terran players. In the past four months he has met hero twice and Calm once. 3-0 for Canata here. His TvT form is questionable but Hwasin isn't in top form either. Lastly he is on a decent streak vs Protoss so he is at least equal to Shuttle. Recently he lost 1-2 to Kal so he is definitely the underdog in that situation but not by too far.
That is 3 strong matchups right there. That + the ace matchup means a strong chance of a T1 win.
Ok going down the list, next is Best. He is definitely weak against the 3 stx zerg line but pulling one of the others or a rookie will net good results. Again Kal is a problem but he can't be everywhere -.-
The T1 zergs will probably be sent out to ZvZ where they might win. July isn't in good ZvZ form and Calm isn't consistent here either. Hero shows a good record so that might be some trouble.
So in favorable matchups, T1 can be favored in 4/6 and the ace. In unfavorable conditions favored in 2 and the ace. Underdog in 4/6. With both teams predicting the others well, the chance of 3/6 favored for each is pretty high and the ace match is T1.
Honnestly, I think Hwaseung will be for the final... STX will manage to play in semi final against Hwaseung, but Im sure Hwaseung will win... they prepare something huge to show they want to win this seasons.
I think the next season of the ProLeague, STX will have a bigger advantage and could be able to destroy everybody.
On July 15 2009 11:30 illu wrote: Did you just call July having A-class ZvT? Before his series with Skyhigh he hasn't played satisfactary ZvT for years.
His 7-3 in his last 10 ZvT would disagree with you.
Excellent writeup, I too was an STX fan after July's move to the team however after watching BeSt and Fantasy play I couldn't help but switch to SKT however STX still has mad love from me .
Not having a S-class player isn't that bad because they have players with S-class matchups against every race. Obviously this makes calling the ace game hard but if they call it right they can beat anyone (that includes Jaedong/Bisu)
On July 15 2009 20:47 ssystem wrote: Not having a S-class player isn't that bad because they have players with S-class matchups against every race. Obviously this makes calling the ace game hard but if they call it right they can beat anyone (that includes Jaedong/Bisu)
I dont see anyone from STX beat JD (of course it could happen, but its not very likely), they have July vs Bisu true.
On July 15 2009 20:47 ssystem wrote: Not having a S-class player isn't that bad because they have players with S-class matchups against every race. Obviously this makes calling the ace game hard but if they call it right they can beat anyone (that includes Jaedong/Bisu)
I dont see anyone from STX beat JD (of course it could happen, but its not very likely), they have July vs Bisu true.
STX doesn't need to beat JD, really. Just the rest of Hwaseung, which is totally possible.
And vs. Bisu there's both July but also hero, which everyone seems to forget, who's 3-0 vs. Bisu in 2009. Also Calm's in great shape and ZvP is his best matchup. Also, even Hwasin managed to beat Bisu recently, lol.
On July 15 2009 20:47 ssystem wrote: Not having a S-class player isn't that bad because they have players with S-class matchups against every race. Obviously this makes calling the ace game hard but if they call it right they can beat anyone (that includes Jaedong/Bisu)
I dont see anyone from STX beat JD (of course it could happen, but its not very likely), they have July vs Bisu true.
I guess we'll see tonight in the MSL if Kal still has what it takes to beat JD, but Hwasin has shown that he still can go toe-to-toe with him.
I like STX because they play as a team. Even though I wish so, I don't believe any of them has any greater chances at a gold in any of the individual leagues. I believe they can beat better teams because of the way they match up players against eachother, or "snipe" as you seem to refer to it.
Who is that tiny player in the bottom left? It looks as if july could eat him for breakfast and still be hungry before lunch. I've seen him sitting with the team during matches, but never seen him play.
edit Could it be Trap? The guy that beat IdrA in GomTV
On July 16 2009 09:08 olof wrote: I like STX because they play as a team. Even though I wish so, I don't believe any of them has any greater chances at a gold in any of the individual leagues. I believe they can beat better teams because of the way they match up players against eachother, or "snipe" as you seem to refer to it.
Who is that tiny player in the bottom left? It looks as if july could eat him for breakfast and still be hungry before lunch. I've seen him sitting with the team during matches, but never seen him play.
edit Could it be Trap? The guy that beat IdrA in GomTV
On July 16 2009 09:08 olof wrote: I like STX because they play as a team. Even though I wish so, I don't believe any of them has any greater chances at a gold in any of the individual leagues. I believe they can beat better teams because of the way they match up players against eachother, or "snipe" as you seem to refer to it.
Who is that tiny player in the bottom left? It looks as if july could eat him for breakfast and still be hungry before lunch. I've seen him sitting with the team during matches, but never seen him play.
edit Could it be Trap? The guy that beat IdrA in GomTV
On July 20 2009 06:12 ghostWriter wrote: You just had to rub it in didn't you? Ignoring the game that modesty threw away, STX pretty much dominated khan the second day.
Yes. It's clear despite the results which team is stronger.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.fomos.kr/board/photo/1245069511_1.jpg)
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JulyZerg transferred to STX from SK Telecom 1 and soon after became the 1st Zerg and 2nd player ever to win a golden mouse, and also becoming the 1st player to ever win a Starleague while wearing an STX uniform. In the EVER2008 OSL July went on an absolute ZvP tear going 12-2 the whole tournament and continued to absolutely dominate Protoss players since (he currently has the highest ZvP ELO of any player). Since the EVER2008 OSL July has managed to dodge playing non-ZvP matches a lot, but has shown that while having S-class ZvP and A-class ZvT (just watch his recent series vs Skyhigh), his ZvZ has suffered greatly. July has gone a measly 3-12 in ZvZ since his OSL victory (compared to 9-7 vs Terran and 20-7 vs Protoss). ![[image loading]](http://www.nevergg.net/photos/514961569_kPdim-L.jpg)
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Yooi apologizing to the STX fans after losing the 2005 Season 2 Proleague. 
