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[SPL] Playoff Maths *spoilers*

Forum Index > BW General
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Kleinmuuhg
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Vanuatu4091 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-26 08:44:09
August 20 2012 08:01 GMT
#1
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Playoffs:
1.Khan
2.CJ
3. T8
4. SKT



Update 25st:
thanks GTR
On August 25 2012 22:21 GTR wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2012 19:45 Ciryandor wrote:
Update please? As far as I get it, with the results from today; Khan secures 1st, CJ is nearly guaranteed in, and T8 will drop down to 3rd.


all three are guaranteed in their current positions.
it's a battle for fourth between woongjin/stx/skt.

Show nested quote +
If Stars > KT; SKT > Ace, then SKT gets it
If Stars > KT; Ace > SKT, then Stars gets it
If KT > Stars; SKT > Ace, then SKT gets it
If KT > Stars; Ace > SKT, then STX gets it




Update 23rd: KespA players will not be attending MLG.


Updated 21st: KT is out. This is good news for SKT fans: If KT > Stars and CJ/STX is a stomp, than a close loss to ACE could be enough for a playoff spot.
Star fans can rejoice as well, as KT will most likely not be as motivated in their next match as they would have been if their playoff chances still existed. That's the same reason Khan fans should be angry at the KT crew. If Khan loses , SKT > Ace and Stars > KT, Khan is out!
STX/CJ: Pretty much the same situation: The winner still goes through. The loser now wont have to fear KT, but either Stars>KT or SKT> Ace means they're out.


Standings/Chances by 20th:
+ Show Spoiler +

Team 8 : If they win vs Khan they secure first spot. If they lose Khan gets first and Depending on how bad they lose and the the match between STX/CJ they will most likely get third place. T8 0:4 Khan and SKT vs ACE 4:0 would mean T8 would be fourth.
Conclusion: A close loss against Khan would secure third and give good chances for second.

Khan: If they win vs Team 8 they will take first place due to their map score. If they lose however, they could still drop out, because winner of CJ/STX will get second and if SKT > Ace (likely) SKT gets third and WJ > KT would get fourth.

STX: Winning against CJ would get them to second (T8 >Khan, allthough if the win 0:2, 2:1 , 1:0 , and SKT wins 4:0 , SKT would get second), or most likely third (Khan>T8), but there are a lot of possibilietes due to mapscores. Win = playoff spot secured, though no chance on first place. Losing : T8 , Khan and CJ will be 1-3 , and if either SKT > Ace OR WJ > KT , STX would drop out. if ACE > SKT and KT wins both matches, they would be out as well.

CJ : Basically the same as STX.

SKT: This will be close. If they lose vs ACE, they're out unless they lose close, CJ/STX loses high , , KT < ACE, WJ < KT. So yeah, they should win. If they win , they could get up to second if they win really high , T8>Khan , Stx/Cj is close . Most likely though is that they will get third with (T8>Khan) t8 and CJ/StX being 1/2 or fourth (Khan > T8 ) with KHan , T8, and CJ/STX being 1-3
Conclusion: Win = playoff spot secured (2/3) Lose = Map score decides, this will be pretty damn close!

Stars: must win against Kt, but since Kt is out, maybe they wont be as hard of an opponent now. If they lose, they're out. If they win , due to their good map score, they will get ahead of loser of cj/stx and than either T8>Khan or Ace > SKT would be enough for them to secure 4. If both hapens, they could even get third!

KT: The funny thing is, its not even that unlikely. The only real difficulty is that, Ace has to win against SKT.
KT needs 2 wins against Stars and ACE and that should be enugh for fourth place. Because the 1 match lost for the loser of cj/stx and 2 matches won for Kt should be enough for 4/5 maps difference in map score. SHOULD :D



Next Matches:


For fun
Most likely scenario: (busted)
+ Show Spoiler +

KT > ACE, STX > CJ (or switched), T8 > KHAN (no chance fanboys), Stars> KT, SKT > ACE
=
1. Team 8
2. STX (CJ)
3. SKT
4. Stars
Yes Khan and CJ (STX) are out , bam!


Most unlikely scenario: (still possible)
+ Show Spoiler +

KT < ACE, STX < CJ (or switched), T8 < KHAN (lol yeah right), Stars < KT, SKT < ACE
=
1.Khan
2.T8 (because it was a close loss)
3.CJ (STX)
4. SKT
STX (CJ) , Fourth place decided by map, will be damnn close


On August 20 2012 21:38 fuzzylogic44 wrote:
MLG Raleigh is during the weekend of 25t-26th, and it is widely assumed the 8 unannounced invites will be kespa players. That could affect things if so.



I will keep this thread updated as the matches progress.
This is our town, scrub
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18769 Posts
August 20 2012 08:05 GMT
#2
Doesn't this mean if KT needs an Ace match vs Ace then they are out already?
Since they probably can't make up in differentials anymore.
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
August 20 2012 08:05 GMT
#3
I hope ACE beats SKT :D
Jaedong :3
Kleinmuuhg
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Vanuatu4091 Posts
August 20 2012 08:07 GMT
#4
On August 20 2012 17:05 sharkie wrote:
Doesn't this mean if KT needs an Ace match vs Ace then they are out already?
Since they probably can't make up in differentials anymore.

well if STX/Cj loses 0:4 for example, KT has to get +1 map score in 2 matches, thats very possible , even with aces matches.
The worst win you could get is 0:2 , 2:1 and 1:0 , which would be +-0 , but that shouldnt happen in both games!
This is our town, scrub
NicksonReyes
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Philippines4431 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-20 08:37:53
August 20 2012 08:09 GMT
#5
SKT pwns ACE most of the time and KT loses to ACE most of the time. KT has like 10% chance of making it in. I'm satisfied with T8 winning this season, but if KT could again pull off a miracle here, then why not?

I want T8, Khan, STX and Stars in the play-offs, because KT and SKT had their fun, and CJ sucks post-season.
"Start yo" -FlaSh
figq
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
12519 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-20 08:31:27
August 20 2012 08:16 GMT
#6
Best scenario for Stars fans is we beat KT, T8 > Khan (hopefully!) and CJ lose to STX and so CJ barely miss playoffs. Would be the sweetest revenge for what they did to us last season. /evilzerogrin

Also, cheer for ACE to beat KT, so that KT lose any desire to beat us. :-p~~

In general, funny enough, ACE will get massive cheering support from all kinds of other team fans for their last matches. That's the way to go out in style - deny a colossal team like KT or/and SKT a place in playoffs. ACE legacy complete.
If you stand next to my head, you can hear the ocean. - Day[9]
GTR
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
51706 Posts
August 20 2012 08:20 GMT
#7
As long as both KT and SKT don't make it, while CJ do, I'm happy!
Commentator
bgx
Profile Joined August 2010
Poland6595 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-20 08:20:47
August 20 2012 08:20 GMT
#8
Damn KHAN still needs to win this

And Stork can't play SC2 ahhhh :o JangBi save us !
Stork[gm]
Lucumo
Profile Joined January 2010
6850 Posts
August 20 2012 08:32 GMT
#9
No KT and SKT while T8 first place would be so awesome. Go Go, make it happen!
zaii
Profile Joined October 2010
Guam2611 Posts
August 20 2012 08:47 GMT
#10
On August 20 2012 17:20 GTR wrote:
As long as both KT and SKT don't make it, while CJ do, I'm happy!


man you must be pissed or nervous at today's results/games
chuDr3t4
Profile Joined April 2010
Russian Federation484 Posts
August 20 2012 09:08 GMT
#11
Was there any announcement or news about Play-Off format?
Will BW-SC2 alternation for players be in? Will it reset after every Bo3 series or not reset at all?
I live in Russia. I wear the fufaika, valenoks and the shapka-ushanka with the red star. I drink vodka straight from the samovar, and my riding bear plays on the balalaika.
ProxyKnoxy
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom2576 Posts
August 20 2012 09:14 GMT
#12
Come on KT!!!!! and I hope the last BW games will be on the 26th when both KT and SKT1 play. Flash/Bisu/Fantasy would play BW for the last time, instead of random cheeses in playoffs/finals. a shame that it's very unlikely for skt1 to lose vs ace...
"Zealot try give mariners high five. Mariners not like high five and try hide and shoot zealot"
Iplaythings
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Denmark9110 Posts
August 20 2012 09:23 GMT
#13
KAY TEE HWAITING

Come on, I want KT in it soo badly :<

KT vs t8 / Khan finals would be so awesome
In the woods, there lurks..
MyFirstProbe
Profile Joined April 2011
Netherlands294 Posts
August 20 2012 09:43 GMT
#14
Hoping for a KT vs T8 finals with a flash vs. Jaedong ace match
glzElectromaster
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
Japan2474 Posts
August 20 2012 09:46 GMT
#15
ACE must kill SKT!
RIP Kt. Violet | In solitude, where we are least alone
8mmspikes
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1704 Posts
August 20 2012 10:32 GMT
#16
I want T8, Khan, CJ and SKT in playoffs, with T8 in first of course that would be the most exciting set of teams I feel!
Suppy fan | ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ WELL MET ヽ༼ຈل͜ຈ༽ノ | http://www.twitter.com/8mmspikes
Le French
Profile Joined December 2011
France782 Posts
August 20 2012 10:36 GMT
#17
PL going out with a bang. Would be really funny if ACE manages to screw up the rankings by winning all its remaining games.
Ca va?
M2
Profile Joined December 2002
Bulgaria4186 Posts
August 20 2012 10:50 GMT
#18
Offtopic playoffs question: What is the games format? How many BW and SC2 matches and what about the rule of people not allowed to play twice in a row in one of the games BW/SC2? How does it transfers if there is a 3rd match required and does it transfer to your next opponent? What about the 1st placer/the finalist, are there any restrictions ?
Knife kitty, night kitty, put you on a slab. Stealthy kitty, hunter kitty, stab stab stab :-)
Frankon
Profile Joined May 2010
3054 Posts
August 20 2012 11:00 GMT
#19
On August 20 2012 19:50 M2 wrote:
Offtopic playoffs question: What is the games format? How many BW and SC2 matches and what about the rule of people not allowed to play twice in a row in one of the games BW/SC2? How does it transfers if there is a 3rd match required and does it transfer to your next opponent? What about the 1st placer/the finalist, are there any restrictions ?

Rather important questions.

If they keep the current system for the play-offs the team directly seeded into final would have a rather big advantage.
MrChupee
Profile Joined April 2010
Australia161 Posts
August 20 2012 11:07 GMT
#20
The hope lives on, I now pray for my 10 minute heroes in Air Force ACE...

Return God to his rightful place! (no, not losing two matches in a PL final ;_; , the other one)
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