EPTThis blog will get more interesting as the season progresses and the list of possible Blizzcon attendees narrows, but meanwhile…
The Round of 96:
Right now, anyone in the Premiere League has the chance to make it to Blizzcon, and many players remain. On that note, let’s take a brief moment for the players who have already fallen:
KR: First, Symbol, SuperNova, hyvaa, Bbyong, JangBi, Reality, Dream, Pigbaby, Swagger
EU: Mvp, Naniwa, TLO, SaSe, ToD, Noname
Naniwa and Mvp are the first players in the Top 16 to be eliminated from Premiere League. So, unlike most of the other eliminated players, they still have a shot at Blizzcon. For Mvp, it is almost certain he will make the cut. However, for Naniwa, sitting at 12th with only 2675 points, it’s a different story. Look for Naniwa to participate in IEM NY and DH Bucharest to solidify his position.
Currently, the cutoff is Rain, with 2350 points. This is likely to change, but let’s conjecture a bit about what could happen if it didn’t.
The Challengers:
There are several Challenger League players who could potentially make the Top 16, assuming they attend and place well at DH Bucharest and IEM New York.
-TLO and First are the closest. Placing in the Ro4 in one of these tournaments (First would only need the Ro8), or placing at least 12th in both would get them into the current Ro16.
-Alicia could make 2nd at one of these tournaments (or get to at least the Ro8 in both of them), and if he also advances through the Challenger League, he’ll have over 2350.
-Symbol is in the same boat as Alicia, they both have 1850 points.
-RorO could win one of the tournaments (or get at least 2nd in one and 4th in the other). Ryung could do the same, and if he makes it to the end of the Challenger League, he would break the current Top 16.
-If DIMAGA advances through the Challenger League, he could break 2350 if he wins one of these tournaments and places at least 12th in the other (or gets 2nd in both).
-Leenock would have to win one, take 2nd at the other, and make it past the 1st round of the Challenger League.
-Even Snute and Life technically still have a chance. But, only one of them can break 2350, and he would have to win both IEM and DH, and then advance through the Challenger League.
There are some other combos for the above players that get them into the Top 16, but this is all assuming of course that the cutoff doesn’t rise, which it almost absolutely will do.
However, I can say for certain that if you have fewer points than Life and you aren’t in the Premiere League, there is absolutely no chance.
At this point, with so many players still in the running, there are so many possible outcomes that there is no way to cover all of them.
So, I will leave you with one last thought. Currently, INnoVation is the only player guaranteed a spot at Blizzcon. Technically, even Jaedong could be eliminated. For example, if Jaedong fell out of the Ro32, earned no additional points, and then this happened…
+ Show Spoiler +
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/aobbMEv.png)
...We would have 15 players with more points than The Tyrant, plus Maru, who would be tied with him. In this wild scenario, Maru could get some points at IEM or DH (sure, why not) and eliminate JD cleanly.
However, this raises a good question, if two players have the same point values, who is ranked higher? Does anyone know?
That’s all for now, I will update more often as more players are eliminated and things get more interesting. Hopefully it comes down to the wire and we get some late-season matches where it is all on the line.
If you notice any problems with my math, please let me know.
Also note, nowhere in these posts will I weigh the likelihood of one person beating the other. For my purposes, as long as they are in the tournament, they still have a chance!
