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If The Playoffs Started Today: 6/23/091. OZ 32-18 (5 matches left) 2. SKT 32-19 (4 matches left) 3. Hite 30-20 (5 matches left) 4. CJ 30-21 (4 matches left) 5. STX 29-21 (5 matches left) 6. KHAN 28-22 (5 matches left) 7. KT 26-24 (5 matches left) 8. Stars 25-25 (5 matches left) 9. MBC 23-28 (4 matches left) 10. FOX 20-30 (5 matches left) 11. eSTRO 18-32 (5 matches left) 12. Air Force ACE 9-42 (4 matches left)
These are the current SPL pole positions. Surprisingly, CJ has been knocked from third place and now must battle it out with Hite as SKT and OZ appear to be pulling away.
This is how the new playoff system works. What this means for our progaming teams is that if the playoffs were to begin tonight, the matchups would be as follows:
Match A: Hite (3) vs KHAN (6) Match B: CJ (4) vs STX (5) Playoff Final: Winner A vs Winner B Semifinal: Playoff Winner vs SKTFinals: Semifinal Winner vs OZ
What I'd now like to do is take a look at how things might play out, focusing primarily on matches A and B.
Match A: Hite SPARKYZ vs Samsung KHAN
This should look familiar. Last season*, The Sparkyz managed to fight their way through to the finals match, only to be finished off in five by the powerhouse that was KHAN. Memorable moments included FBH's ridiculous beach ceremony after defeating  go.go the wannabe as well as  Chalrenge being Chalrenge. A 4-0 sweep was only prevented by the ever-reliable Leta, as his teammates decided to flail in the sand while he was left to stem the tide alone.
This year, however, is different. 2v2 has been eliminated. KHAN's core decided to go into a simultaneous superslump (SSS). Hite has found new strength in Horang2, an improved  YellOw[ArnC], and a hotter-than-ever Leta. Quite frankly, this match would be a beatdown of grudge-like proportions. KHAN is 1:4 vs Hite this year, including this week's brutal 0-3 blowout. As much as I'd like to believe Stork, firebathero, and JangBi can pull it out, it's a long shot. What goes around, comes around, I suppose.
Things to look for:
+ Show Spoiler +
Match B: CJ Entus vs STX
It may not be a grudge match, but CJ vs STX would promise to be a far better playoff than Hite vs Samsung. These two teams are arguably the most rounded in the league, and as such every match should be exciting. If you're looking for entertainment in a Team BoX, this is where it's at. Many of the potential matchups would be full of win (EffOrt vs Calm, anyone?) and these teams rarely disappoint when it comes to fun games.
Predicting this winner proves interesting. CJ has been playing like the elite team it wants to be, and its record shows. A WL title and surging star players leave CJ a favorite against almost any team when it comes down to the wire. However, their record against STX is not so good. They currently stand at 1:3 (with their only win coming in Ace via Kwanroll). These teams' equivalent depths provides an interesting dynamic, as one or two streaking/slumping players may not be enough to tip the scales in a matchup full of upset potential. I think the upcoming R5 match between these two teams may be telling in that respect.
Things to look for:
+ Show Spoiler +Watch CJ's home stretch closely. They have STX, Hite, and SKT on the menu, and will be clawing tooth and nail to reclaim that #2 spot. Whether they gain momentum or burn out could make or break them, should this playoff match take place.
What about vs SKT/OZ?
I will be looking at potential semifinal/final matches in a later post, as well as keeping track of how things develop in the weeks to come. Feel free to post your thoughts and constructive criticism below.
*Fun Fact: Sea.Pure had the best record for SPL08
  
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About Pure having the best record, are you sure you didn't leave out winner's league?
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16935 Posts
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Pretty sure he said PL 08, as opposed to current season which is 08-09.
Btw, a ton of random stuff got tlpdized.
But the main thing is: fantastic write-up.
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Yeah, I've gone through and edited out all the tlpd monstrosities (I hope, at least). Crazy Koreans and their random English nicks.
Thanks guys.  Any recommendations for what else you'd like to see in a post like this one?
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STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7.
Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
+ Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though
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I think the most interesting part is trying to figure out who will be sent as "filler" players. I think CJ and STX are the only teams that have 6 players who are reasonably capable of taking wins from pretty much everyone. For everyone else, they'll be forced to use players that we rarely ever see in BO5 PL. If these players can create an upset and get a win, it'll be a pretty big advantage for the team.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
I really wanna see some Best of 7's. That way we'll actually see which team has some nice depth, plus BO7s are fucking intense.
That being said, OZ is fucked. Jaedong + Bunch of Failures.
Shit, STX has some fucked up depth. Kal/Hwasin/Calm/Hero/July/Shuttle/Notice. What the hell?
We all know of CJ's depth with Effort/Iris/Skyhigh/Kwanroll/Much/Savior/Movie. But damn, STX has some sick depth too.
I think of the teams that get hit the hardest are probably Samsung and OZ with a BO7 format. Khan with Stork/Jangbi/Great/FBH lack another two players, while OZ simply has Jaedong/Hiya/Backho/Lomo.
I think Hite and SKT can scrape by as Hite has Leta/Yarnc/Horang2/Type-B/Go.Go and SKT has Best/Bisu/Fantasy/TheZerg/Canata, but they certainly don't have the depth to go 6 deep with the confidence that CJ and STX have.
Curious to see who gets sent out from each team. Also, maps'll play a pretty big factor in this, so we'll have to see how that plays out.
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konadora
Singapore66063 Posts
This makes me even more excited for the playoffs, can't wait for it! Great writeup!
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Kentor
United States5784 Posts
On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though
where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right....
CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do.
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On June 24 2009 03:01 Kentor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right.... CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do.
7th set is a ACE match. you honestly think savior would be played over any of those 6?
and what do you mean wtf shuttle? have you just not watched SC since 2007?
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Katowice25012 Posts
I started writing one of these, but it ended up being kind of shitty and I never finished it. Good job.
The one thing you're not taking into account is who has which matches left, this actually makes the forecast somewhat different (and is a number we can calculate with some measure of accuracy).
The next R&S (hopefully tomorrow) will cover some of this stuff, but from a slightly different perspective, LETS COMPARE NOTES WHEN IT HITS.
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Well, Kwanro isn't doing too well right now and Movie isn't too good. On the other hand, they're only sending Savior out against ACE and Estro... I think there's still a decent chance they'll play Savior.
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Kentor
United States5784 Posts
On June 24 2009 03:09 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2009 03:01 Kentor wrote:On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right.... CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do. 7th set is a ACE match. you honestly think savior would be played over any of those 6? and what do you mean wtf shuttle? have you just not watched SC since 2007?
why not? savior can play
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On June 24 2009 03:12 heyoka wrote:
I started writing one of these, but it ended up being kind of shitty and I never finished it. Good job.
The one thing you're not taking into account is who has which matches left, this actually makes the forecast somewhat different (and is a number we can calculate with some measure of accuracy).
The next R&S (hopefully tomorrow) will cover some of this stuff, but from a slightly different perspective, LETS COMPARE NOTES WHEN IT HITS.
Yes, this is deliberately narrow in scope, and I look forward to it.
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On June 24 2009 03:26 Kentor wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2009 03:09 Ideas wrote:On June 24 2009 03:01 Kentor wrote:On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right.... CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do. 7th set is a ACE match. you honestly think savior would be played over any of those 6? and what do you mean wtf shuttle? have you just not watched SC since 2007? why not? savior can play
Did someone mention sAviOr? sAviOr has been tearing it up lately. He is the unquestionable god of Outsider and even Jaedong will try to dodge him and that map in the playoffs
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Belgium9942 Posts
God I love bo7 PL matches. Looking forward to the playoffs.
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On June 24 2009 04:01 MoRe_mInErAls wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2009 03:26 Kentor wrote:On June 24 2009 03:09 Ideas wrote:On June 24 2009 03:01 Kentor wrote:On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right.... CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do. 7th set is a ACE match. you honestly think savior would be played over any of those 6? and what do you mean wtf shuttle? have you just not watched SC since 2007? why not? savior can play Did someone mention sAviOr? sAviOr has been tearing it up lately. He is the unquestionable god of Outsider and even Jaedong will try to dodge him and that map in the playoffs
lol obvi troll
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Melbourne5338 Posts
On June 24 2009 03:09 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2009 03:01 Kentor wrote:On June 24 2009 02:13 Ideas wrote:STX would fucking destroy CJ in a Bo7. Calm/Hwasin/July/Kal/Shuttle/by.hero vs Effort/Kwanro/Iris/skyhigh/much/movie? pshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh + Show Spoiler +tbh it'd all come down to what team gets more favorable MUs :\. would be a fucking amazing series though where's savior in CJ line up? CJ is 7 man deep. and wtf shuttle? right.... CJ is the best there is for a Bo7. I wonder how Hahaseung is gonna do. 7th set is a ACE match. you honestly think savior would be played over any of those 6? and what do you mean wtf shuttle? have you just not watched SC since 2007?
You insult sAviOr (1-0 in Round 5, In MSL) but fanboy STX including July (0 games played in R5) and Shuttle (0 games played in R5)?
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