EPTPlayer names
Blue > 60% overall
60% overall > Green > 40% overall
Red < 40% overall
Bold + Underline = More than 10 wins
Red statistic on these players shows potential weakness
Fantasy Cost
Cost < ( # Wins / 2 )
Cost = ( # Wins / 2 )
Cost > ( # Wins / 2 )
![[image loading]](http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/5169/players1qr1.png)
![[image loading]](http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/958/players2cs2.png)
+ Show Spoiler [More infos] +
Key:
[Fantasy Value]
[Original Record] [Player Name] [Round 2 Record] - [Losses]
[Fantasy Value]
[Original Record] [Player Name] [Round 2 Record] - [Losses]
12
21-6 Leta (14-2) - Loss to JangBi, SkyHigh
10
20-9 Jaedong (10-4) - UpMagiC, Kal, FBH, Sea
15-8 Mind (11-4) - Luxury, SangHo, Leta, HiyA
9
15-3 Bisu (10-1) - Loss to Jaedong
20-6 BeSt (10-3) - Loss to Saint, Free, Hwasin
8
19-7 Flash (9-3) - Loss to Jaedong, Stork, Bisu
7
14-8 EffOrt (9-5) - Loss to Light, UpMagiC, Flash, Bisu, Jaedong
12-7 JangBi (8-3) - Loss to Shine, fantasy, EffOrt
6
15-7 FBH (7-3) - Loss to BeSt, July, Mind
13-8 Stork (6-4) - Loss to Movie, Bisu, NaDa, Sea
13-6 SangHo (7-4) - Loss to YellOw, EffOrt, BeSt, great
11-4 July (8-1) - Loss to s2
11-9 fantasy (5-5) - Loss to Nal_Keke, Mind, Jaedong, Really, Sea
11-7 Sea (7-3) - Anytime, ZerO, YellOw
10-5 Light (6-4) - Loss to fOrGG, Mind, free, FBH
10-4 forGG (6-2) - Loss to Leta, SangHo
9-5 HiyA (5-1) - Loss to BeSt
5
14-11 Kal (6-5) - Loss to YellOw, sKyHigh, Stork, JangBi, SangHo
14-8 Free (6-5) - Loss to Mind, Kal, Movie, Saint, Leta
13-14 Really (6-9) - I'm Bad
12-10 ZerO (3-7) - I'm Bad
12-8 YellOw (5-5) - Loss to 815, Fantasy, HiyA, FBH, GGPlay
9-3 great (5-2) - Loss to sKyHigh, Free
6-4 SkyHigh (6-4) - Loss to Pusan, Pure, Mind, HiyA
4-1 Young (4-1) - Loss to Bisu
4
15-9 Calm (5-5) - Loss to YellOw, Hyun, EffOrt, Bisu, fOrGG
10-7 Saint (3-3) - Loss to Dongrae, EffOrt, great
9-4 UpMagiC (5-2) - Loss to Leta, Stork
9-12 Hwasin (4-7) - I'm Bad
8-11 Hyvaa (5-6) - I'm Bad
8-6 GGPlay (5-4) - Loss to Tempest, Stork, July, Anytime
7-6 Keke (4-3) - Loss to EffOrt, Leta, Jaedong
4-4 Shine (3-0)
3
11-6 Pusan (3-4) - Loss to SangHo, Really, Horang2, Bisu
9-11 Luxury (3-6) - I'm Bad
4-8 Anytime (4-8) - I'm Bad
4-6 Casy (4-6) - I'm Bad
6-5 Movie (5-5) - Loss to Anytime, Bogus, Shine, Flash, Bisu
4-2 NaDa (2-2) - Loss to UpMagiC, Sea
2-8 s2 (2-3) – I’m Bad
2-4 Thezerg (2-2) - Loss to MuMyung, GGPlay
5-4 Type-b (2-1) - Loss to Really
+ Show Spoiler [My opinions on fantasy strategy] +
- * Top players who can win multiple games in a row are even more important in this all-kill format.
Let's name some players who we believe are capable of multiple kill games without being sniped. I'll count multiple kill streaks as 3-kill streaks. 2-kill would be too many players, and is more succeptable to occurring in almost every match. We're talking 8 point plays here -- (Lineup Appearance, 3 wins, and Team win) with the possibility for slightly more or less depending on placement of wins and/or a loss.
Player list: Leta, Jaedong, Mind[debatable], Bisu, BeSt, Flash, EffOrt[debatable], JangBi[debatable], FBH[debatable], July, Stork[debatable].... You can see how the list shrinks quite fast. Your team requires 6 players.. only (3-4) maximum which come from this list.
* Avoid players with a particularly weak matchup (FBH & Hwasin TvP etc.) who can easily be sniped.
* Snipers will play a large role and can accumulate a couple of points by streak breaking.
This should be a BIG concern that I don't see addressed in many teams. The most likely scenario in this all-kill format for fantasy success from OUTSIDE of the "team-kill" list above will come from race/map snipers and young surprises. Take a look at maGma, for example. 1-4 record in proleague so far, but 1-1 in Round 2. Claims 50%+ win rate against Bisu in training games. What does this mean? Unknown potential for protoss sniping. Notice that there are 8 protoss, 11 terran, and 6 zerg valued at 5 points or above. Considering potential protoss and terran snipers added to the bottom of your roster GIVEN that they will see playing time is a sure way to make some extra fantasy value.
* The only viable teams for their prices I think are KTF (0), STX (4), SKT1 (5) and Khan (5).
I REALLY disagree with this sentiment. I do not think you can win this round picking those expensive teams. Think about what you're doing to your team. Let's say Leta -- In fact.. Leta played 27 games in Rounds 1 and 2. In Round 2, Leta went 14-2 netting him on top of the fantasy leaderboard AND fantasy value board for round 3. Consider that there are 11 other teams to play against, only 5~ of which are NOT vulnerable to a streak ie: "Team-kill" list in part 1.
Leta in Round 2:
14-2 (+26) - Lets estimate Leta will play (11(1-1) + 6(2-0) + 3(3-0) + 1(4-0)) games.
4-0x1 = 8 points
3-0x3 = 18 points - 8(4-0) = 10 points
2-0x6 = 24 points - 18(4-0,3-0) = 8 points
1-0,1-1(x11) = 22 points - 6~ loss points = 16 points
Total = 16 + 8 + 10 + 8 = 42 points
11 Lineup (+11) - Win or lose, Leta will play in every match. (+11)
5 Ace (+10) - No ace, +0
2 Streak-3 (+2) - No streak bonus +0
1 Streak-6 (+2) - Same
1 Streak-9 (+3) - Same
2 Streak Break (+2) - Not the same rule in Round 3.
7 Team Win (+7) - Assume his team does slightly worse in this format, +5.
Total = 42 + 11 + 5 = 58 points
New rules:
2-Game Streak Break: 1 Point
3-Game Streak Break: 2 Points
We can assume Leta will be breaking a streak when he enters the match about... 1/6th the time I'd say. Probably 1/10th the time on a 3-game streak. This will net him over 21~ matches about 7~ points.
Final = 58 + 7 = 65~ points
-- Leta scored 63 points in Round 2 on his phenomenal round. Even doing slightly worse in Round 3, he should end up at around the same number of points. What does this mean? Players with streaking capability should be valued higher than other players. Of course, you already knew that. Why include this semi-math in the team section? Well -- Teams have the following scoring system:
Proteams:
4-0 Victory: 5 Points
4-1 Victory: 4 Points
4-2 Victory: 3 Points
4-3 Victory: 2 Points
3-4 Defeat: 1 Point
2-4 Defeat: 0 Points
1-4 Defeat: -1 Points
0-4 Defeat: -2 Points
Best Record for Round 3: 4 Points
We could consider a team struggle like choosing SKT1(-5) vs KTF(-0) here. Remember that this format favors "team-kill" sheet players. By choosing to deduct 5 points for your total, you're basically eliminating the choice of 3-4 of those players down to 2. Lets examine what advantages you would gain from choosing SKT1 over KTF.
Round 2:
2. SKT / 25 points / 8-3 (3-2, 3-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-3, 3-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-2, 2-3, 3-0)
11. KTF / 2 points / 4-6 (3-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-1, 0-3, 0-3, 3-2, 1-3, 3-2, 0-3, 0-3)
Round 3:
SKT / ? / ?
-- Let's offer SKT a record of... 8-3. In this format SKT has a very strong chance of a 4-1 or 4-2 victory in at least half of their wins with the possibility of a 4-0 streaker, once.. I'd say. They will never get 0-4 defeats, and a 1-4 defeat is also unlikely. We can offer them the following line:
SKT / 27 / 8-3 (4-2, 4-3, 4-1, 3-4, 4-0, 4-3, 2-4, 2-4, 4-2, 4-2, 4-1) = 3+2+4+1+5+2+0+0+3+3+4
KTF / ? / ?
-- Let's offer KTF a record of... 4-6. In this format, KTF does not have the same chance of getting 0-3'd as they had before. Let's assume that Flash wins 1 game in each match because the coach does not put him up first so he has a chance to see who Flash will play before sending him out. This eliminates a lot of the negative scoring KTF had in round 2.
KTF / 19 / 4-6 (4-1, 4-3, 2-4, 3-4, 4-1, 4-1, 1-4, 3-4, 3-4, 4-2, 2-4) = 4+2+0+1+4+4-1+1+1+3+0
Conclusion: There will likely be a slightly larger gap than this in the actual round. I would estimate a 10 point gap between the teams in terms of fantasy value. However, you are sacrificing your lineup's capability to including only 2 "team-kill" players. The gap between the top 10 players and the rest of the players could be as high as between #1 Leta - 62, #10 FBH - 31. Choose carefully how you allocate your points towards teams in fantasy. Like a kicker in fantasy football, they could net you a lot of points.. but you'll likely get nearly just as many points with the Bengals kicker as you would with the Steelers kicker over the course of an entire season.
* Consider filling up the team with cheap players of strong teams (Boxer, Ruby, by.hero etc.) to leech team win points.
This is a very valuable point. Consider highly players the coach will put on the team sheet, but they may not get a chance to play because "team-kill" players on the roster have already secured a victory. Players from Lecaf, Khan, SKT1, SparkyZ, and STX Soul probably carry an innate +7-8 in their fantasy scoring from team wins. Avoid picking moderately successful players like Movie just because they play often. You do not know where they will play in the lineup, or if CJ will even win the match. CJ has a lot of depth, but none of their players are capable of producing a long streak.. which means they are very dangerous to snipe, but very susceptible to losses.
* Perhaps avoid expensive yet unreliable (Mind, July) or inexperienced (SkyHigh, Young) players.
* There are lots of players in the 4 to 6 point range who did well last season but haven't yet shown if they are for real (hyvaa, Really, SangHo etc.). I wouldn't want to take those.
This point is perhaps a little vague, but I will say that inexperienced players offer the chance for improvement while expensive players often can slump. Be careful with how you choose inexperienced players whose value has risen significantly from Round 2 to Round 3. Not all of them will continue to be successful, and many of them do not have the chance to beat top players and were accumulating wins against lesser opponents.
* This could be the occasion to take a gamble with up-and-comers (Horang2, Tazza etc.) and slumping oldschoolers (Savior, oov, Iris, Midas, Xellos) at a low price in hopes of them fulfilling their potential.
I won't comment on gambles. You are free to make gamble choices, and the final winner will almost certainly have at least 1 gamble choice on a low-value player who scores successfully in the high 30s. Take note of all the small scoring details like sniping streaks, team wins, and matchup statistics and you could find yourself owning a player in this category.
* Try to spread your risk so you aren't screwed if someone slumps, e.g. not Flash AND Luxury AND KTF
Be careful not to choose too many successful players in unsuccessful teams. Teams like MBC, eSTRO, and CJ have a lot of good "value" picks, but stocking up on too many players from one of these teams will cut you off from the team win bonus, and especially sucks if you contain the players from a team AND that team. Don't make that mistake. Prepare now!
* If possible, have a good racial balance so you can trade freely. Sucks when you can't trade your slumping zerg away because you have no other zerg on your team.
One of each race is indeed a curse that requires some forethought. If, for example, you currently only have one zerg on your team... be sure that he will succeed or you may find yourself in a scenario with a low point high value player that you are unable to trade away. This is a rather fine detail in the overall scheme of things, though. Making trades is one of those areas that some fantasy players would rather just avoid.
+ Show Spoiler [How I chose my team...] +
![[image loading]](http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/5329/players4xp7.png)
I outlined the ones I chose. Horang2 isn't on my chart, but I get the chance to pick a guy that shows potential and I also needed a 2nd protoss. As you can see in the image there are quite a few steals in there that people are overlooking just based on statistics alone. I think Bisu is probably the biggest name I'm passing up, simply because the math didn't work out at the bottom of my team and I didn't support any of the 1 point players. There IS a math team out there that I'd be interested in checking up on by the time the league ends...
Flash (8) 2x+3
FBH (6) 2x+3
Kal (5) 2x+4
Free (5) 3x (last win against Lomo)
Calm (4) 3x+3
Iris (2) 3x+1
KTF (0)
You're getting 19,15,14, 15, 14, and 7 wins from this team.. It's just about picking and choosing.
My team has a little bit of a weight to second round play in the formula I made, as well as looking at the map statistics and the reason MSL play from Savior. I'll release a little bit more information about fantasy plays when we close in on the date.. and the only thing else left to discuss are the teams we chose!! Can't wait for the 17th to begin.
