Ok so the latest drama got me thinking about the possible reasoning of why a long time member of EG like Universe would want to switch to Secret. Lets get the obvious out of the way - Puppey is an amazing captain and every dota player would love to get the opportunity to play in his team. Ever since its inception Secret was one of the most dominant teams and its whole idea was to sort of be the Real Madrid of Dota. On top of that, without any sponsors / corporate bs Secret players are free to do whatever the fuck they want.
Thats all the positive stuff, but lets look at what being an EG player means. First of all, without a shadow of any doubt the EG players receive the highest salaries of any team - there isn't a single organization that can rival the sponsorship muscle of EG, and while tournament winnings would still dwarf that income, its hard to turn down 5 figure monthly pay to join a team without any sponsors and guaranteed income. Lets come back to the initial argument that being on Puppey's team means winning a lot. Sure thats the most tempting proposition about leaving fucking EG of all teams to join Secret. But lets look at the tournament results of Secret ever since the teams inception and compare those to EG's for the same period. For the sake of the argument I will ignore TI5, cause obviously even if Secret won every single other tournament and EG got kicked out in the first round, EG would've still made more money.
Since the first tournament win of Secret back December 2014, the team has won (excluding TI) about 2.5 mil $. Compared to that EG won a mere 2.1 mil $, so TI aside, Secret has definitely had better performance than EG since its inception till now. The crucial factor here though, is the fact that for that period, 11 players came and went out Secret with Puppey being the only original member left. Compared to that, in the same period 7 players have played for EG, 2 of them being rtz and zai who moved over to Secret. So per capita, the players on EG have made more money than those who played for Secret (Puppey excluded), and thats even without considering the results of TI.
So let me be clear, Universe. You are giving up you fat salary on EG to join the team of a captain who doesn't keep anyone of his teammates with him for longer than 4-5 months, in order to 'win more' while all evidence, even not considering TI, suggests that you were more successful at EG than anyone playing for Secret was. I mean, playing with Puppey must be incredible but how fucking incredible it has to be to give up the stability and the salaries coming your way by playing for EG?
P.S. That was just a petty rant and there are probably legit reasons for these transfers that a sane outsider can never understand.
Is there any information disclosed as to how big the share is that EG takes from Tournament winnings? The figures you are using completely disregard that in the case of Secret, the players will probably get a way higher part of the winnings than in the case of EG.
Also it could obviously be other reasons. I very highly doubt that Universe made this decision based on trying to maximizing his income alone.
I can only guess what % EG takes but based on what Ive heard from other teams the figure will likely be around 10-15%. Thats besides the point of the rant though. My main argument against making that transfer is that no one besides puppey stayed on Secret long enough to have any long term benefits compared to being on EG.
This is extremely consistent with Kahnemann's prospect theory. I may do a longer post (probably just a response to this thread later, but I'm on mass transit and my stop is soon.
The interplay of overweighting of small probabilities and concavity-convexity of the value function leads to the so-called fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk-averse behavior when gains have moderate probabilities or losses have small probabilities; risk-seeking behavior when losses have moderate probabilities or gains have small probabilities.
Universe is doing this, in spades.
He's over-weighing a small probability of huge winnings. He's underweighting the certainty of non-salary.
Also his behavior is like this because his base state was high salary. Someone going from 0 to this (see, sumail) or with more perspective (maybe fear?) would probably make different decisions.
On March 25 2016 08:08 Joni_ wrote: Is there any information disclosed as to how big the share is that EG takes from Tournament winnings? The figures you are using completely disregard that in the case of Secret, the players will probably get a way higher part of the winnings than in the case of EG.
Also it could obviously be other reasons. I very highly doubt that Universe made this decision based on trying to maximizing his income alone.
EG takes 10% of the tournament winnings, per a response from ppd at one point. Considering EG generally has most people on salary, that seems like a fair share. Though I've not heard any word on the actual salary they're paid while working on EG, I imagine it's up there at least to what their top SC2 players were making during it's peak. Probably in the 80-100k range, at this point.
This also might be Universe's last season as a pro-player. He's made the occasional overture about thinking about the future, so this could actually be "one last hurrah". Having been involved in enough competitive on-line scenes over the years, you'd be surprised how often that comes into people's thinking.
He's going to be 27 this year and might be looking for an exit path. He's 2nd overall on Player Winnings with over 2.1 million, most of that in the last 2 years. He might just have felt it was time for a change.
On March 25 2016 09:35 Taf the Ghost wrote: This also might be Universe's last season as a pro-player. He's made the occasional overture about thinking about the future, so this could actually be "one last hurrah". Having been involved in enough competitive on-line scenes over the years, you'd be surprised how often that comes into people's thinking.
He's going to be 27 this year and might be looking for an exit path. He's 2nd overall on Player Winnings with over 2.1 million, most of that in the last 2 years. He might just have felt it was time for a change.
i think this really. people forget there's more than just money sometimes
Maybe he has made enough money to feel comfortable, he stopped having fun (or at least as much fun as he would want to have) on EG, and wanted a change? Maybe he felt that EG was close to blowing up even if they stay together and his chances are better if he jumps ship?
Also this "captain who doesn't keep anyone of his teammates with him for longer than 4-5 months" seems like a pretty massive hyperbole. From the original Secret Kuro and s4 stayed in the team for a year, after which s4 left on his own. Arteezy and Zai also left on their own. The team that was formed after TI5 stayed together for 7-8 months or whatever, and EE&PLD will still be on the team at least until TI6. Secret's rate of making changes is not any higher than EG's. In fact, they've made player changes at the exact same times. The only real difference is post TI5 when Secret all went their own ways, while EG changed only 1 player.
On March 25 2016 08:23 Saechiis wrote: Maybe playing with PPD sucks?
I have a feeling PPD hasn't been trying since TI, maybe Universe/RTZ weren't satisfied with him as a captain. RTZ I can probably understand wanting to play with EE, Universe I dunno. Had to be something else wrong with the team for Universe to leave.
Obviously EG would win in terms of money they got TI and DAC but have you thought of counting that as just tournament wins rather money? Cause pricemoney can be MISLEADING if you just see TI4 or TI5 winning money without looking at the results of the team that won TI, it would seem like a team won like 20-30 tournaments but in fact they just won 1. Hell even winning 1 major or DAC would look like you won 5-10 tournaments even though you just won 1.
And why are you are including in the comparison the results of EG with rtz before he transferred to Secret? I do not see how it's fair to compare EG and Secret with the results that has rtz on EG, compare them through the Secret with RTZ and EG with Aui. As much as people hate rtz, EG won the most tournaments with RTZ.
Don't include the results with rtz on EG and Secret without rtz now compare the results.
This is all about winning TI, it's all about the money and EG salary means shit compared to TI money, i bet EG got more money from the players from winning TI than what players get from salaries with EG. Universe thinks he has better chances with Secret than EG it's obviously a gamble and it's not like the gamble is not justifiable like Secret recently sucked balls they didn't win shit or were they actually a shit team ever, they are consistent they have potential. So he gambled, if this pays of or not, that's what we will find out soon if the gamble is worth it but making it out that Secret is not worth shit the transfer and ignoring their results and potential that they could have better results than EG is you know stupid unfair (stupid is not the right word srry).
but hey what do universe know who cares if he's the one who played with ppd, i'm sure we know better than the player who played with ppd himself. EG can't possibly be worse than Secret, i mean it has ppd , ppd can never be worse he is the best captain will always have the best team it doesn't matter if we look into results instead of money and ppd is always the winner regardless of the result .. There can't possibly be a single team that is better team than EG or potentially there's just way no waychinese team, european team just no way EG can never be not better .. i mean there must be something wrong with universe if he left it is never ppd or EG's fault why he left (NOTE THE SARCASM)
i'm sorry it's kinda unfair for secret that you look at it this way. It's not like Secret has no results to present and it's not also fair that you'd compare the results with a team that has rtz currently when EG won the most with RTZ, not the most money but the most tournaments
PPD kicked Aui that is a long time friend of Universe. Things arent going so well for EG since then - imo the Sumail Arteezy combo is not something that cannot work. And then Universe decides to try something else. Wow, Universe must be dumb, you are right.
It's not like PPD is cancerous too, people just tend to forgive him because NA proud and such shit.
Since we are already talking about ppd and EG. Nothing must be wrong with the dude and the team
I mean it's not like it's just rtz who left twice but two of his players left too. Even when they won alot together (winning alot with zai) and winning TI with universe. It must all be all universe and zai's fault for being dumb and getting tricked by Arteezy !
No way there is something wrong with ppd or the team at all .. that can't be possible so it must all be rtz who brainwashed them or universe and zai fault on their own
(if there isn't something wrong with the team then this shit shouldn't happen .. 3 players from eg should've never accepted the offer from secret or left eg in the first place if they are satisfied or had hopes with the team .. this isn't the first time somebody got offered by another team but that somebody declined s4/EE/notail/iceiceice didn't leave their teams to join EG pre-TI4, pie didn't leave speedgaming when offered by puppey back in mlg times
so i doubt this is entirely universe and rtz's fault .. there's a possibility something is wrong with eg )
Sad thing is that when ppl called out PPD for being "insert insult" when Aui kick took place , many ppl who now say he is cancerous were protecting him non stop , but now that RTZ + Universe leave all of a sudden "no one can play with PPD" , welp ce la vi i guess
On March 25 2016 18:50 Furikawari wrote: It's not a secret furthermore (no pun intended lol), PPD has a HoN history. People just conveniently ignore it because NA EG etc.
I didn't follow HoN so how ppd is back in HoN days though i know abit about moon/swindle but certainly it's somebody from the team if rtz left twice (which could be just rtz) but universe and zai left as well.
On March 25 2016 19:00 bluzi wrote: Sad thing is that when ppl called out PPD for being "insert insult" when Aui kick took place , many ppl who now say he is cancerous were protecting him non stop , but now that RTZ + Universe leave all of a sudden "no one can play with PPD" , welp ce la vi i guess
Alot of the comments is flaming puppey, have you read reddit lately ? It's all about "but muh w33ha carried secret he shouldn't be kicked" and people flaming rtz and the rest of secret for not caring about w33ha+misery.
So i have no idea what you are talking about puppey and secret not getting called out. There's alot of angry people including here,
but hey left by 3 people left EG and it's not like they didn't win together alot so performance is not an issue but they still did. It could not possibly be something about EG or ppd honestly if that was just rtz leaving then that's on rtz but both universe and zai also left
not that i'm discrediting the shitty timing of the kick from Secret .. the timing is terrible for w33ha and misery but roster shuffle isn't a bad thing i mean after all this is a competitive scene all teams are aiming to win and if a team believes that they would do better with somebody else that's gonna happen nothing wrong with it happened all the time . Tons of teams got success with it (alliance kicking EE, newbee removing kingJ, the recent alliance allowed them to win 2 tourneys with the kick of mynuts)
Maybe Universe and RTZ just weren't satisfied with the results they were having. With their post-TI roster, EG only won The Summit 4 and the Captains Draft 3.0 tournaments. Thats 2 low profile tournament wins in 7 months. While they made deep runs in the more important tournaments, they never looked like actually winning any. On top of that, they got knocked out before reaching the finals in both majors. If you compare those results with the ones EG had prior to TI, it's hard to imagine the EG-players being content with the way things are going. Maybe they didn't have enough confidence in their ability to turn this around?
Then again, all of us are just guessing at this point. There could be any reason for the team not sticking together.
I mean, playing with Puppey must be incredible but how fucking incredible it has to be to give up the stability and the salaries coming your way by playing for EG?
Believe your the best player on your position and also believe in the people that play the other positions. Confidence in your own as well as in your new team members abilities can easily justify a switch.
On March 26 2016 02:50 Torte de Lini wrote: Team Secret's salary is incredibly high, almost rivaling.
Stability is a different question, but EG (Good Game Agency) is also doing a massive revising as well that will shift a lot of its owned brands.
Where is that Secret salary coming from ? Also the GGA revising has been going on for more than a year, I doubt they will revise even further since they did pretty much everything all other organizations were bitching about.
Aahh yes. The billionaire owners and the rich outside investors seeking nothing but the well being of esports and their organizations, that always lasted for long
you can be right or wrong after they play out the rest of their careers, for now, universe is playing a video game primarily, and making silly youtube videos on the side for income--which probably exceeds most of what anybody around him is making.
if he wants to buy a mansion for him and aui, he can do that. if he then decides he wants to rent studio time to record a solo-album, he certainly has that freedom.
most people do not, and the international is the biggest and brightest cherry on that pie as he enters the twilight years of his gaming career.
In high-stress environments, even the best of friends will grate on each other. Sometimes you just need to change. And even if ppd is salty, he gets a whole lot out of his teams and his drafts.
Though, my prediction right now is we're going to look back on all of the issues and blowing up of teams in this shuffle due to the way 6.86 patch played out. All of the carry positions are really a pretty sizable wreck right now. You can run a few different styles of play, but at the top-tier of play, the actual hero pool has gotten really small and depending on what Meta heroes get through the first phase, the team has to play the game very differently.
In Universe's case, one game playing Dark Seer is the right call. The next Nature's Prophet. So he's switching between being Universe and needing to play like Bulldog. MVP.P just gave up with an off-laner at times and ran 3 full cores. There's a bit of Rock, Paper, Scissors effects going on with the high-level drafting & strategy, which really makes it something of a mess for players.
I guess Manilla and TI will prove who's right, but personally I do not like the Secret/EG shuffle either. Nevertheless it is just a rant and though I share your feelings, I doubt the money involved played a highly significant part, nor should the situation be analyzed from that point of view.
The people who are bringing in economical analysis and prospect theory are way over-analyzing the situation. Or simply, using a unlikely and marginal explanation. I think Universe being friends with Arteezy, wanting a change of scenery and wanting to win (being on stage, holding the trophy in front of a cheering a crowd; not receiving a cheque at home), are all way more important factors than the financial considerations, in terms of explaining his behavior. But the idea that he would sit down with a calculator and calculate the EV of this transfer to Secret made me chuckle, thanks for that guys .
And we all know that professional DotA players are only playing for the money, the prize money and the salary they get. Not to leave a mark on the scene, deliver a good show or for the love of the game.
It's sad that you have such a narrow view on all of this. DotA isn't about money. Sure it's nice but the reasoning behind the transfer was about a lot but not money. That the pro teams are switching around so much is rather common at every level of competition. Instead of being all but hurt about him doing something different we should be happy that there is new energy and new story lines coming into TI6.
On March 29 2016 06:17 les wrote: And we all know that professional DotA players are only playing for the money, the prize money and the salary they get. Not to leave a mark on the scene, deliver a good show or for the love of the game.
It's sad that you have such a narrow view on all of this. DotA isn't about money. Sure it's nice but the reasoning behind the transfer was about a lot but not money. That the pro teams are switching around so much is rather common at every level of competition. Instead of being all but hurt about him doing something different we should be happy that there is new energy and new story lines coming into TI6.
Dota is about money. Pro-anything is about money. Leaving a mark on Dota is meaningless in the context of the education/job training the players are giving up to be pro-players. This isn't some BW "passion for the game" that they used to justify having team houses filled with unpaid employees to use a training partners for their star players.
Its all about the pay check and what the team offers. Players are employees. Teams are like bands at a concert. Bands love the music they make, but they 100% need to get paid to make it or justify the cost of doing it.
EPT
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Disciple spitting the truth, 
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