ESL One Katowice Ro8 Preview

fnatic came into the event as one (if not THE) of the top favorites to take the tournament. Not only did they recover from their shaky form at the end of 2014, but they are starting to look like the fearsome invincible juggernaut again.
Set into Group A they easily demolished Vox Eminor 16-3 in their opening match and went on to give a 13-2 trashing as T on Cobble before closing the map out 16-7 and easily taking top seed as they advanced to the Ro8. What do these results tell us in regards to this particular matchup?
Very little I am afraid. Fnatic were always expected to absolutely walk over Vox Eminor and while their match against Na'Vi was impressive, one has to consider that from the top echelon of teams, which were favorites to take ESL One Katowice, Na'Vi always were the weird one out. With their streaky inconsistency they could look absolutely dominating or as they did here absolutely stunned and helpless as fnatic racked up the rounds on the less favored side of cobble.

As there is little to deduce from fnatic's run so far, let's take a look at PENTA. Few would have given PENTA a chance of advancing out of the groupstage, how could you with them being put besides the like of EnvyUs, Titan and LGB? The German side surprised however by first eliminating Titan on cache with a dominating 16-4 performance and then taking the rematch against LGB 16-12 on dust2 to make it out. While the stunning upset against Titan probably took most of the attention to them, to me the 2nd match against LGB was even more impressive. While LGB did just lose the Winner's match against EnvyUs 16-8, the Norwegians put up a strong performance and were widely expected to take the Decider against PENTA as well, especially considering that the first match went 16-3 in LGB's favor (even on the same map dust2).

In direct comparison of results PENTA of course has had a more impressive showing during the groupstage, but upsets in Bo1's are one thing, taking a Bo3 off a arguably Top 2 Team in the world is a different matter altogether. As surprising and strong PENTA's run has been so far I just don't see them taking 2 maps against the likes of JW and olof.

Fnatic 2 : 0 PENTA

Virtus.Pro, hometown favorites and affectionately nicknamed Virtus.Plow came into ESL One Katowice with high expectations. This had been the stage for their breakout performance in 2014 and they were more than eager to have a triumphant return. VP started off their run by taking out 3DMAX 16-5 on overpass with comfort, however in the Winner's match it was not TSM awaiting them as many would have thought, but Cloud9. The ensuing match on inferno looked like an easy walkover for VP as they finished their CT half 13-2, C9 managed to rally and stabilize with a good CT showing themselves before finally falling 16-11 to the Polish stars. It is safe to say that VP are looking like strong contenders for the title again, while C9 did get in range of taking the match when they were 11-14 down, VP stayed in control and closed it out. With the crowd support only getting stronger as we enter the weekend, VP are sure to start firing up in the Playoffs.

On to Keyd-Stars the biggest surprise so far in the tournament. The Brazilian side gave a good showing of themselves in it's opener against NiP. While their CT side on inferno was pretty bad (ending the half on 2-13) a stronger than expected T side did end the match on a 16-9 scoreline. It was the elimination match against Hellraisers that stood out however. Much has been said about the chaotic nature of HR, the amount of talent on the team cannot be denied, something keeps holding them back as they seemingly start to crumble and falter out of nowhere at random times. A good summary of this elimination game is maybe that Keyd-stars proved to be the more consistent of the two, at least consistent enough to take it 16-12 on inferno. In the decider match against CLG the Brazilians looked in control most of the time and knocked out yet another US team in the groupstages of a major.

Conclusively said KeyD-Stars have done a good job so far and surpassed expectations already, but their run so far has been against arguably Tier 2 competition as their group was a weaker one. I don't see them standing a chance against VP, especially keeping in mind the many clutch situations Keyd-Stars lost in the other matches.

Virtus.Pro 2 : 0 KeyD-Stars

EnvyUs were also heavy favorites for the championship prior to the matches starting, but their showing in the groupstages has not been the best. First off they went head to head with Titan, their domestic rivals and only managed to barely defeat them 16-14. There are a couple of other factors that mitigate the effect that result has on their status as favorites. The map played was cobble, while it has been in the mappool for a long time now and even reworked and improved, it still remains the unloved stepchild Valve forced on the community, furthermore as it seems to be traditional domestic rivalry matches tend to go more unexpected, maybe because of the familiarity all these players have with each other (they all played together at some point in time as a team) and the heightened stakes of establishing the pecking order in their respective countries. The Winner's match went much more smoothly 16-8 against surprisingly good showing from LGB, but EnvyUs was never really threatened to give it away. While the result against Titan might be worrying EnvyUs remains a strong contender for a Top4 placement.

On the other side, we have Na'Vi. Few offline results to judge their form and inconsistent. There are days, when Na'Vi can make the best teams in the world look silly and out of place, but then there are also times, when they do not look like a Tier 1 team at all. Their run so far has been a mixed bag: They trashed Flipside (16-2) and Vox Eminor (16-3) but had a less than stellar run in with fnatic in between. After an embarrassing CT side on cobble Na'Vi barely managed to make the scoreline look an acceptable 7-16 in the end.

For this one it is most important to see which Na'Vi shows up to the match. If they have a good day, this Ro8 matchup has the potential to be the best and closest of all, on the other hand there might also be the possibility of Na'Vi fizzling out of yet another major (as they did against EnvyUs, then LDLC in Dreamhack). I will have to go with the more consistent side in this one.

EnvyUs 2 : 1 Na'Vi

Going into this major there was a question mark hanging above NiP. Would the exchange Maikelele against Allu pay off? Especially in a LAN environment with communication as key to victory? After the first couple of games NiP gives a resounding confirmation, they surely have not lost their edge. First taking out Keyd 16-9 then dispatching off CLG 16-8, NiP looked confident and composed. While they did not hand out trashings as the other top favorites did, their victory on the maps was never much in doubt. Heading into the Ro8 the real test for allu begins however, as for NiP nothing less than at least another straight final appearance, if not the championship are the goal here.

One could say that TSM is cursed in regards to playoffs. Countless Ro4 finishes in which they fall apart for no apparent reason save the pressure that comes with those situations made them a team of "potential" for ages. In the groupstages their run was bumpy. Surprised by C9's immaculate CT side on nuke they lost their opener 14-16 and faced elimination against 3DMAX on nuke. 3DMAX did manage to take 4 rounds starting as T in the first half but could not hold it together as CT's and fell to the Danes 16-11. The rematch was eagerly anticipated by TSM as they said in the prematch interview that they were more angry at themselves for giving the match against C9 away after a 13-2 start than they were worried about elimination against 3DMAX. On overpass the match looked close with a 9:6 scoreline in favor of TSM after the first half, but C9 collapsed in the second half and TSM walked over them 16-8. Not the most encouraging of starts but TSM got the job done.

Just going through the pairings this Ro8 match sounds like the most contested one. Much will depend on the mappicks and the mentality. In here however lies the divider between the two teams. Whatever the reason is TSM needs to have a breakthrough in this area. in order to have a shot at finally fulfilling the promise of the assembled talent in their roster. What better opponent to do it against than NiP, the eternal final boss of the CS:GO majors? I believe this will be a close match, but the sought after breakthrough for TSM will come another time. not against the composed champion mentality of NiP.

NiP 2 : 1 TSM

What else did we learn from ESL One Katowice 2015 so far?

Titan is down and almost out
Seeing the fall of Titan in yet another groupstage is a dispiriting experience, considering the talent on the roster and the claim that is inherent with it a groupstage exit is just unacceptable. Will there be roster changes? I do not know, however something must change in their play. The close contest against EnvyUs was inspiring, how did they end up being demolished by PENTA straight afterwards? Questions that need answering before the next major.

The rest of the world is hardly resting
The stunning success of KeyD-Stars is only the most prominent result. Europe may still be the highest echelon of CS:GO, with the US following but they better watch their back as the others are catching up. Titan, Hellraisers, Flipside and 3DMAX all finished worse than Vox Eminor, while CLG and C9 failed to reach the Playoffs, making KeyD-Stars the surprising last (southern) American team left standing. Especially the CIS sides of HR and Flipside were the most stunning failures besides Titan. Is this a long-term development or just a fluke? The next major will give answers (or maybe the playoffs, with freak upsets)

Tournament Format & Mappool
There has been a long and ongoing discussion on both aspects already. Let me just say that teams traveling halfway around the world to be eliminated in 2 Bo1's still feels fundamentally wrong to me. Time constraints are however a real problem and I really do not know how to make the groupstages more "fair" without disabling the ability of Majors to wrap up in a single weekend, maybe others have ideas to share.
On the Mappool: Cobble is probably the only word I need to say. While the rework and improvements have done much in favor of it, I still think a viable replacement is just waiting to be used, be it season or the reworked train. While we have seen a surprising amount of cobble already, I still believe it just does not fit in with the other maps.

Thanks for reading and feel free to make predictions yourself, comment or give critique!

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