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Active: 12716 users

WCS EU Premier. Thoughts and predictions

Blogs > Grovbolle
Post a Reply
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3804 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-19 22:25:35
April 19 2013 21:47 GMT
#1
Riding on a wave of popularity, and encouraged by the handsome Jaime Lannister/Kaelaris + Show Spoiler [Minor GoT Show spoiler] +
Handsome or handless? :D
I thought I would post some predictions for WCS EU. Kaelaris wanted to hear our thoughts on the so-called Group of Death and which one we thought it was.

Please before you read any further, if you haven't read this, I suggest you do.

I will go through the Groups one by one and give my thoughts on the predictions and supplement the standard prediction. Thanks to Starve for the awesome formatting.



+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +
                Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
-------------------------------------------------------------
ForGG 84.55% 55.26% 29.29% 9.73% 5.71%
SaSe 42.36% 18.24% 24.13% 29.00% 28.64%
sLivko 42.57% 17.30% 25.28% 29.64% 27.79%
Bunny 30.51% 9.20% 21.31% 31.63% 37.86%

(T)ForGG 2-0 (T)Bunny

(P)SaSe 1-2 (Z)sLivko

(T)ForGG 2-1 (Z)sLivko

(T)Bunny 2-1 (P)SaSe

(Z)sLivko 1-2 (T)Bunny

(T)ForGG and (T)Bunny advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


The group with the infamous ForGG who caused quite a discussion recently. It might look weird that even though Bunny is predicted to go through he has the lowest chance to reach top 2. The reason for this is the beastly TvT stat for ForGG making it almost impossible for Bunny to best him in a Bo3. Thus giving him an almost insta-loss in the first match. However with his recent TvP shenanigans he is favorited to beat both SaSe and Slivko, regardless of which he has to meet first.

Personal thoughts: SaSe is underrated and might surprise, Slivko is my prediction for losing both his matches.

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +
                  Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
---------------------------------------------------------------
LucifroN 71.55% 40.86% 30.69% 16.56% 11.89%
Happy 55.48% 26.94% 28.55% 23.81% 20.70%
Bly 44.94% 20.40% 24.54% 29.38% 25.67%
HasuObs 28.03% 11.80% 16.23% 30.24% 41.73%

(T)LucifroN 2-1 (T)Happy

(P)HasuObs 1-2 (Z)Bly

(T)LucifroN 2-1 (Z)Bly

(T)Happy 2-1 (P)HasuObs

(Z)Bly 1-2 (T)Happy

(T)LucifroN and (T)Happy advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


Lucifron will go through. He is the highest ranked foreigner, has beaten Center and Apocalypse in TvT and is in general the favorite. His ZvT isn't too bad and he should advance top of the group. That leaves a Zerg, a Protoss and a Terran to fight for the last spot. With current balance and the skill level of these players, Happy should take the 2nd spot as predicted.

Personal thoughts: One of the easier groups.

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +
                  Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
---------------------------------------------------------------
Strelok 59.51% 30.86% 28.65% 22.35% 18.14%
TitaN 56.46% 29.75% 26.71% 22.61% 20.93%
Ret 52.86% 25.80% 27.06% 25.35% 21.79%
ThorZaIN 31.17% 13.59% 17.58% 29.69% 39.14%

(Z)Ret 1–2 (T)Strelok

(T)ThorZaIN 1–2 (P)TitaN

(T)Strelok 1–2 (P)TitaN

(Z)Ret 2–1 (T)ThorZaIN

(T)Strelok 2–1 (Z)Ret

(P)TitaN and (T)Strelok advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


One of the closest groups in terms of skill. Thorzain is a bit underrated compared to his skill, making the group even closer. I think Ret will beat Strelok and mess up the prediction.

Personal thoughts: GO GO KING IN THE NORTH.

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +
                Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
-------------------------------------------------------------
Mvp 82.47% 52.20% 30.27% 10.96% 6.57%
Socke 58.83% 25.79% 33.04% 24.63% 16.54%
Siw 34.03% 13.36% 20.67% 30.76% 35.21%
DIMAGA 24.68% 8.66% 16.02% 33.64% 41.68%

(T)Mvp 2-1 (P)Siw

(P)Socke 2-1 (Z)DIMAGA

(T)Mvp 2-1 (P)Socke

(P)Siw 2-1 (Z)DIMAGA

(P)Socke 2-1 (P)Siw

(T)Mvp and (P)Socke advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


My personal favorite group. The king of wings in a group with the Ukranian powerhouse as well as my favorite German protoss (sorry Hasu). With Siw drawing the short straw of playing Mvp first, and the fact that he currently is "high" on points gained from the WCS EU qualifier while DIMAGA haven't played that many good protosses recently I lend the advantage to DIMAGA in the losers match, meaning that him and Socke will play for the 2nd spot, and Socke will beat him twice.

+ Show Spoiler [Group E] +
                 Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
--------------------------------------------------------------
NaNiwa 65.24% 36.19% 29.05% 19.51% 15.25%
Kas 57.03% 27.58% 29.45% 24.90% 18.07%
TLO 52.64% 25.59% 27.05% 25.82% 21.54%
Shuttle 25.09% 10.65% 14.44% 29.78% 45.14%

(P)NaNiwa 2-1 (T)Shuttle

(T)Kas 2-1 (Z)TLO

(P)NaNiwa 2-1 (T)Kas

(T)Shuttle 1-2 (Z)TLO

(T)Kas 2-1 (Z)TLO

Naniwa and (T)Kas advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


Shuttle is underrated, Kas is still a bit overrated from his many WoL results. Naniwa and Shuttle should make it out of the groups, although this particular Dane will be cheering for TLO and the destroyer.

Personal thought: One of the harder groups although containing no "native Koreans".

+ Show Spoiler [Group F] +
                 Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
--------------------------------------------------------------
VortiX 65.63% 34.64% 30.99% 19.82% 14.55%
Nerchio 63.08% 33.58% 29.50% 20.23% 16.69%
Dayshi 38.93% 15.99% 22.94% 32.79% 28.28%
monchi 32.36% 15.79% 16.58% 27.16% 40.48%

(Z)Nerchio 2-1 (T)Dayshi

(Z)VortiX 2-1 (P)monchi

(Z)Nerchio 2-1 (Z)VortiX

(T)Dayshi 2-1 (P)monchi

(Z)VortiX 2-1 (T)Dayshi

(Z)Nerchio and (Z)VortiX advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


The group I am most excited to watch is group F, Dayshi having made a big splash with solid performances in WCS EU Quali. as well as Acer Teamstory Cup can hopefully take the fight to EU powerzergs Nerchio and Vortix. With the death of BL/Infestor, zergs are struggling a lot more and it will be interesting to see who of the two zergs have adapted the most. With monchi's recent loss to Bunny 4-1 I give him a very small chance of advancement. I predict Dayshi and one Zerg to advance.

Personal thought: Vortix? Patchzerg? Are you fucking kidding me? Kid is legit yo!

+ Show Spoiler [Group G] +
                    Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Stephano 82.40% 52.80% 29.59% 10.84% 6.76%
Grubby 50.22% 19.19% 31.03% 28.34% 21.45%
KrasS 34.41% 16.07% 18.33% 27.07% 38.52%
BabyKnight 32.98% 11.93% 21.05% 33.75% 33.28%

(Z)Stephano 2-1 (T)KrasS

(P)Grubby 2-1 (P)BabyKnight

(Z)Stephano 2-0 (P)Grubby

(T)KrasS 1-2 (P)BabyKnight

(P)Grubby 2-1 (P)BabyKnight

(Z)Stephano and (P)Grubby advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


With the common sight it unfortunately has become to see Grubby get whooped by Stephano, that is mostly in the past WoL days. It will be exciting to see if the 2 will meet once again. BabyK is no pushover though and the coinflippyness of PvP could see him defeat Grubby in the first match. Plus with Krass, and the current ZvT balance, we could see a complete reversal of the predicted outcome.

Personal thoughts: Stephano will not advance, Hopefully BBK can though (Yes I am Danish)

+ Show Spoiler [Group H] +
                Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
-------------------------------------------------------------
MMA 55.34% 30.33% 25.01% 21.51% 23.15%
SortOf 52.34% 25.34% 27.00% 25.03% 22.63%
Feast 46.43% 22.17% 24.26% 26.75% 26.82%
MaNa 45.89% 22.16% 23.72% 26.70% 27.41%

(T)MMA 2-1 (P)Feast

(P)MaNa 1-2 (Z)SortOf

(T)MMA 2-1 (Z)SortOf

(P)Feast 2-1 (P)MaNa

(Z)SortOf 2-1 (P)Feast

(T)MMA and (Z)SortOf advance!

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.



Finally we come to, what in my opinion, is the hardest group. The 3 foreigners will have a very hard time getting 1st in a group where the abandoned son of Boxer and his multitasking will make life tough for first Feast, and then the winner of SortOf-Mana (Which should be MaNa). SortOf, having showed not much in HotS and being Zerg (which currently seems to struggle the most) has the lowest chance of advancing, regardless of what the above prediction says.

Personal thoughts: This tournament is MMA's time to reclaim some of his former glory. All hail the true heir to the Slayers throne.


So there you have it, my personal thoughts on the entire thing. I encourage everyone to tune in to as much WCS EU Action as possible, let's show that the viewer numbers from the qualifiers can easily be matched.



*****
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3804 Posts
April 19 2013 21:50 GMT
#2
Feel free to discuss my predictions and give your own, although keep the tone civil
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
April 19 2013 22:25 GMT
#3
But why is fOrGG... Nah, I won't mess with you - interesting post, I feel WCS Will make or break your player rankings; it'll be fun to watch for sure!
AdministratorBreak the chains
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
April 19 2013 22:42 GMT
#4
Luci - Happy will still be close, I don't think it's so clear-cut. It's #1 ladder barcode Terran vs #2 ladder barcode Terran. Happy is sick good and HotS suits him pretty well so far. Your ability to predict how hellbat drops go might be better than mine, though.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3804 Posts
April 19 2013 22:45 GMT
#5
Please note that this is purely my own predictions, and therefore not directly associated with anything official from aligulac whatsoever.

But why is fOrGG... Nah, I won't mess with you - interesting post, I feel WCS Will make or break your player rankings; it'll be fun to watch for sure!


As all deciding things are
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
April 19 2013 22:54 GMT
#6
On April 20 2013 07:45 Grovbolle wrote:
Please note that this is purely my own predictions, and therefore not directly associated with anything official from aligulac whatsoever.

Fuck responsibility.

What's worse: you haven't updated your 200 post blog with the duck picture you promised, now I got hungry but I don't even know for what.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17651 Posts
April 19 2013 22:55 GMT
#7
On April 20 2013 07:25 Zealously wrote:
But why is fOrGG... Nah, I won't mess with you - interesting post, I feel WCS Will make or break your player rankings; it'll be fun to watch for sure!

lol
"Expert" mods4ever.com
LeimoC
Profile Joined July 2012
Germany9 Posts
April 19 2013 23:26 GMT
#8
MaNa will get first in this group!
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3804 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-20 08:36:23
April 20 2013 07:54 GMT
#9
On April 20 2013 07:54 StarVe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2013 07:45 Grovbolle wrote:
Please note that this is purely my own predictions, and therefore not directly associated with anything official from aligulac whatsoever.

Fuck responsibility.

What's worse: you haven't updated your 200 post blog with the duck picture you promised, now I got hungry but I don't even know for what.

Lol.
Will get on it

Edit:
[image loading]
[image loading]
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
StarVe
Profile Joined June 2011
Germany13591 Posts
April 20 2013 22:10 GMT
#10
Looks legit, now I'm hungry again but it's too late to eat. T_T
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3804 Posts
April 23 2013 20:23 GMT
#11
Slivko 0-2. Check
SaSe underrated. Check

Doing decent so far :D
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
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