Proficiency: Australian - Survive the harsh lands of Oz on a day-to-day basis. Not taking this proficiency and choosing to live in Australia will likely result in death within a few days.

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

February 25 2014 09:13 GMT

#743

So, after our discussion about probabilities in Pandemonio on Sunday i decided that MATH! needed to be done.

Basically, i calculated the average highest Roll based on the number of Dice.

Now, the only good way i came up with doing this is the following:
+ Show Spoiler [Legend] +

ph(n+1)=Probability of a die rolling higher then the Average highest in when rolling with n die
Nh(AH(n))=Number of possible results higher then AH(n)
AH(n)=Average highest when rolling n dice

ph(n+1)=Nh(AH(n))/12
AH(n+1)=ph(n+1)*Sum[i>AH(n);12](i-AH(n))/Nh(AH(n))+AH(n)
AH(n+1)=Sum[i>AH(n);12](i-AH(n))/12+AH(n)

The average highest for n+1 die is obviously higher then the average highest for n die, and you can calculate how much higher it is by multiplying the probability of that additional die being higher then the average with the average of how much that die is higher then the average.

This leads to a formula that allows you to calculate AH(n+1) if you know AH(n). And the starting value for this is obviously AH(0)=0.

I put that into a spreadsheet and got numbers.

Then i decided on adding doubles. Basically, doubles are irrelevant unless it is a double of the highest number. If the highest number is a double, the total is increased by 1. So you just add the probability of the highest number being a double, which is 1-(11/12)^(n-1) to the AH(n) and you included doubles.

Spreadsheet is here, i hope you can view it since i usually don't use googledocs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Asqk3VowO765dFVPV0YxenROZUtRWC13WF9Ea3dSM3c&usp=sharing

I guess another interesting thing to look at would be the standard deviations.

Also, in the game not only the highest roll matters, if the highest is equal the second highest would be relevant. As a rough approximation for that you could use AH(n-1), but that is not entirely correct as it ignores the fact that the second highest roll is by definition lower then the highest roll.

Btw, if anyone sees a problem with my maths please tell me.

Xoronius

Germany6362 Posts

February 26 2014 17:22 GMT

#744

Looks fine to me. A problem could occur, when rolling 4 or more dice though, since there could be tripples or even bigger ties, which could add up above the highest die (a 10 and three 9 for example). It should be pretty neglectable in total numbers, though.

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

February 26 2014 18:12 GMT

#745

Yeah, i consciously ignored that, triples should increase the average highest even further.

Also, Lucas, since you were talking about that, apparently Deathwatch allows you to play Spacemarines in the 40k universe. That is all i know about that game, though.

HystericaLaughter

Australia720 Posts

February 28 2014 14:15 GMT

#746

Confirming we are a go for Pandemonio on Sunday, right? All good on my end.

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

February 28 2014 14:33 GMT

#747

Yes.

CrazyF1r3f0x

United States2120 Posts

February 28 2014 17:02 GMT

#748

Confirme

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

March 02 2014 23:19 GMT

#749

Attention Citizens!

Due to recent Commie Sabotage, your personnel files have been scrambled. Don't worry, the traitors have [REDACTED]. The CPU taskforce assigned to this problem has spent the last week designing the optimal algorithm to assure these scrambled personnel files arrive at their proper owners as fast as possible. This problem proved more complicated then expected, so the size of the assigned CPU taskforce had to be increased two times. Keep that in mind when criticizing the final procedure to reobtain your personnel files, and follow it to the letter. As you know, not having proper personnel files and authorization is treasonous and will be noted in your personnel files. Having another persons personnel files is fatal to the proper operation of Alpha Complex.

Take your own personnel file out of the following stack. Do not look at any other files, that information might be restricted to higher clearance levels. Stealing another citizens file is treason.

Do not forget your mandatory troubleshooter briefing from this earlier broadcast.

CrazyF1r3f0x

United States2120 Posts

March 02 2014 23:54 GMT

#750

I call dibs on Hunter-R-BCW-1

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

March 03 2014 11:42 GMT

#751

Do not worry, citizen. Your friend the computer has sent you the necessary personnel files.

Should you have any questions do not hesitate to ask. Failure to understand your own personnel files will not be interpreted as a treasonous attempt to impersonate another troubleshooter. It will not lead to you being charged with being a treasonous commie saboteur. Do not worry about that. You are not on a list of citizens suspected of being traitors.

ATTENTION!
There have been reports of commie traitors impersonating citizen! Keep watchful. Should someone you meet not know basic facts of life in Alpha complex, such as the fact that the effects of your gender are neglectable due to the large amounts of mandatory hormone suppressants in your [access to this information restricted to level INDIGO], or the way the RedOrangeYellowGreenBlueIndigoVioletUltraviolet clearence system works, he is almost certainly a commie spy. Report him to your friend the computer immediately.

dismiss

United Kingdom3341 Posts

March 03 2014 12:20 GMT

#752

Î'd like to play Ginger-R-UYT-1 if no one minds.

HystericaLaughter

Australia720 Posts

March 03 2014 14:59 GMT

#753

Jennifer-R-BCW-1 please!

Murgel

Sweden175 Posts

March 03 2014 22:55 GMT

#754

Hmmm. I'll go with Dexter-R-FCP-1.

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

March 07 2014 14:05 GMT

#755

Finn, would you prefer Peter-R or Gunther-R?

Also, if anyone still has questions, now would be a good time. Before i go back into full The Computer mode.

dismiss

United Kingdom3341 Posts

March 07 2014 14:54 GMT

#756

How to play this game? Will it be fun? How do we report our teammates for termination?

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

March 07 2014 15:50 GMT

#757

Rules are pretty simple from your end. You tell me what you want to do. Sometimes you roll a d20. I tell you what happens. One thing that is important is that you can always whisper me if you want to do something sneaky to other players. I'd prefer it if in that case you always attach a d20 roll, it won't always be needed, but it is a lot easier if i don't have to ask you if it is.

One thing i am thinking about is doing hidden combat. Basically, the way combat in this game works is simultaneously, where each of you tell me what you do, and then it gets resolved simultaneously. I am contemplating if it would be fun to have you submit your actions hidden. However, that would interfere with another fun mechanic where you have perversity points, which are basically bennies to improve your actions. Except you can also spend them on other players actions, either to improve them, or maybe accidentally hinder them.

Keep in mind that when you are shooting your fellow players, you should a) have a good reason (TREASON!), b) do it "on accident", or c) make sure that noone survives and there is no proof to tell a different story then yours.

One thing i have not mentioned yet is that you are not playing a character, you are playing a clone family of 6. So dying is not the end of the game, your memories up to the current point will be uploaded into your next clone, which will then be delivered to a reasonable spot. This needs some explanation: Your clones are a new person, just with the same memories. Thus, you can't report/terminate someone twice for the same treasonous act. On the same route, if you have no proof, shooting the person that just shot you should follow the same rules mentioned before. After all, the previous clone they executed was a traitor.

Of course it will be fun, fun is mandatory.

You have a PDC, which is basically an iPad. However, remember that frivolous reports of treason are treasonous. You should ~~manufacture~~ have some proof to back it up. Also, not every case of treason necessarily leads to termination. It could also lead to medication or brainscrubbing. As for what would consist of treason, there is a chart on page 37 of the pdf i linked earlier, giving you a good idea what is and is not treason. Note that The Computer is not entirely sane, so it is not always easy to estimate beforehand how he will react to any given accusation of treason. Finding a creative reason as to why a certain act is or is not treason is very helpful.

One important factor here is the clearance level. You have clearance level RED (signified by the -R- in your name, which means you are allowed to interact with RED or Black(stands for Infrared) objects. Interacting or being present at a location of a higher clearance (ORANGE, YELLOW, GREEN, BLUE, INDIGO, VIOLET, White standing for ULTRAVIOLET) is treasonous. Everything in Alpha complex is colorcoded according to it's clearance level.

HystericaLaughter

Australia720 Posts

March 08 2014 10:47 GMT

#758

I have no idea how my character/clone is supposed to act or how we go about rooting out those pesky communists, but according to the manual that's perfect!

Xoronius

Germany6362 Posts

March 09 2014 00:42 GMT

#759

Going with Peter-R-WQR-1. Regarding questions, how does the secret society-stuff get chosen? I don´t see it in the character sheets yet, do we deal with that tomorrow or does´nt it madder that much?

Simberto

Germany11811 Posts

March 09 2014 00:49 GMT

#760

You absolutely do not get a second, hidden part of the character sheet containing lots of treasonous information. If you should get one, that would be a mistake. Of course, it would be impossible to talk to anyone about that, because all of the treasonous information on that page. That doesn't exist. And thus isn't a problem at all.