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Some quick thoughts and opinions I wanted to write down.
1. This news was not aired lightly. It was controlled and planned. Question is by who? And for what reason? Kim Jong Un would probably have preferred to DELAY, in order to adequately prepare. On the other hand his uncle (the regent) and the top military generals might have wanted this to break immediately...
2. North Korea is as backward and "feudal" as it gets. A dictatorship, but heavily influenced by the notions of divine rule. And now everyone knows that Kim Jong Il is dead. Even the North Korean population who are always in the dark must have heard (I am assuming since it is the State media that aired this). In any case the news WILL spread and people will look for a new leader. In such a regime, even a day without a "king" is dangerous. With every passing day Kim Jong Un loses favor among the people.
3. Two sides will rise up. One will back Kim Jong Un as the rightful ruler of Korea. This party will be made up of staunch loyalists to Kim Jong Il and brainwashed soldiers who will see Kim Jong Il's son as the Third God. The second side will be composed of power hungry generals who will seek to take advantage of the situation and rally the growing number of dissenters within the country.
4. The critical part is how and when the North Korean population will react. Usually, they have zero zero zero say in any political matter. So if Kim Jong Un takes over peacefully...the population will sadly submit. However, if there is dissent at the top, then we have hope that the suffering of the NK people will be harnessed and used against the incumbent regime.
5. Fight for legitimacy: Tragically it will be centered around the showcasing of military power...worst case scenario is North Korea rallying and becoming even more "unified" (aka brainwashed) due to this incident. South Korea will "threaten" (aka North Korea will say that South Korea did something horrible) the new regime and thus North Korea will fight.
6. This is make or break time for many governments and puppeteers around the world. The time to change the political landscape of an unchanging region. China and U.S. are obviously working very hard to make sure that they either know of the succession plan before hand or directly influence it in any way they can.
7. The soldiers. What will the soldiers do? Arguably they are more important in this situation than the weak and oppressed NK population. Are they as brainwashed as we think they are? If so the succession will go smoothly with Kim Jong Un as the rightful heir. If a general resists, he will be killed by the soldiers who view Kim Jong Un as a God.
8. Also, take note in the fact that in such a hereditary line of succession, it is blasphemy if the throne goes to anyone else BUT Kim Jong Un. You and I can think about different types of rule and election, but in North Korea there is only one rightful ruler...Kim Jong Un. So if he does not get it, the shit will hit the fan. Anything else will go against tradition and "heaven's will".
9. In any case, I hope that the brainwashing of the North Korean people will finally be broken. That they may come to understand that Kim Jong Il was just a man and not a God. That they have been tricked for over 50 years...the North Korean army in itself is frightening but the most terrible power of all is the institutionalization of North Korea that allows the corrupt regime to WIN the fight before it even starts!
 
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Hahaha, I'm sorry but I couldn't help but think of Game of Thrones while reading all of this.
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I think that's a fairly accurate assessment of the situation.
I really hope that shit doesn't hit the fan but if it does that the South Korean Airforce can bomb the hell out of the North's artillery before they get a missile off.
I notice that you are from South Korea. How do you feel about the situation?
Are you scared at all?
I know I am and I'm more than 10000km away from NK.
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On December 19 2011 14:28 Sprungjeezy wrote:
Hahaha, I'm sorry but I couldn't help but think of Game of Thrones while reading all of this. Err... this IS literally a game of thrones.
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NK propaganda is pretty damn shocking. Once saw a clip of a BBC journo interviewing a farmer using a tractor donated by EU. He seemed to honestly believe that the EU gave the tractor as a token of respect and in awe of NK's great power.
However, I have no doubt there are some, let's say enlightened, individuals, but I doubt they are numerous enough or well-equipped to usurp KJU's power. The army is of course unpredictable right now but I think they would mostly be loyal to the regime. I can't see why not.
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On December 19 2011 14:28 Sprungjeezy wrote:
Hahaha, I'm sorry but I couldn't help but think of Game of Thrones while reading all of this.
Me too lol. Maybe we have been too desynthesized by tv and media
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On December 19 2011 14:28 Sprungjeezy wrote:
Hahaha, I'm sorry but I couldn't help but think of Game of Thrones while reading all of this.
lol point taken.
anyways, does anyone else have more theories of what events might materialize in the coming days?
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I don't think North Korean soldiers are brainwashed into thinking the Kim family is God.
I think they know what the reality is, but they don't revolt, because there is no reason to.
They are well fed and well taken care of (compared to regular citizens) under this system of regime as military is their 1st priority.
In that sense, I think it is in the military's best interest to keep the regime the way it is, since any changes might take away their benefits.
But when NK gets so poor that they can't even afford to feed the military, then NK is in deep shit.
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On December 19 2011 15:26 don_kyuhote wrote:
I don't think North Korean soldiers are brainwashed into thinking the Kim family is God.
I think they know what the reality is, but they don't revolt, because there is no reason to.
They are well fed and well taken care of (compared to regular citizens) under this system of regime as military is their 1st priority.
In that sense, I think it is in the military's best interest to keep the regime the way it is, since any changes might take away their benefits.
But when NK gets so poor that they can't even afford to feed the military, then NK is in deep shit.
yes. this is what I wanted to hear. I hope this is the case, but I think that though some of the higher (very high) ranking soldiers might understand the reality, the vast majority of the NK soldiers are robots bent on serving the Kim family. Don't you think that this is the case? you make a good point on WHY they are not up in arms (due to the fact that they so much to lose).
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I'm just surprised that after these years noone has tried to assassinate the leaders. I mean even Hitler had to face a LOT of attempts even from his own rank. Can anyone enlighten me?
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On December 19 2011 15:57 valaki wrote:
I'm just surprised that after these years noone has tried to assassinate the leaders. I mean even Hitler had to face a LOT of attempts even from his own rank. Can anyone enlighten me?
Even if there was an assassination attempt, there's no way the NK official media would EVER report it.
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Some of your points are well thought out and reasoned, but others are ust speculative, so it almost ends up reading like a manifesto for the future. I like your points on the propaganda and of North Korea, because I think that's the most fundamental problem for the country moving forward.
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On December 19 2011 16:52 Ciraxis wrote:
Some of your points are well thought out and reasoned, but others are ust speculative, so it almost ends up reading like a manifesto for the future. I like your points on the propaganda and of North Korea, because I think that's the most fundamental problem for the country moving forward.
hehe you are right, most of them are just speculative :D
Another thing I wonder about is: What will set North Korea off? I mean, South Korea, Japan or the United States is not stupid enough to do anything drastic to North Korea. We will never "hit them" first lest we bring about WW3 (angering China and have the entire intl. community on our balls with sharp teeth). Nor will North Korea fully commit to war because they want the backing of China (and the sympathies of other nations) and have their sick "justification" that they are killing for the good of their homeland.
In my opinion, a coup is the only thing that will set off a civil war in NK or a revolution. No amount of United Nation sanctions, treaties or peace talks will move NK! No amount of gun toting and pulling stunts will make one side jump. No one has moved for over 50 years! Both sides are just waiting for the other side to slip...but a coup from the inside could unravel all of NK's plans and disrupt their goals.
But now we have a North Korean succession on our hands. No doubt it is tense in the cabinet meeting rooms of North Korea, and if there ever is a ripe time for a coup, it is now. Guys think about it! The pieces are all there! We got a young freshman who is untested and inexperienced (Kim Jong Un), and we have heard more and more reports of populist discontent (I will try to find the news report about this that I saw a few months back). If there ever was a time for a revolution of North Korea...there is a high probability that it will occur very soon. I hope.
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I believe there are a few things to watch here.
Not only NK, but we need to keep a close eye on China.
China's movement may change everything and imagine the horror if they move into NK... As you know and heard about 'North East Regency Plan' (I may not have translated it right, but in Korean it is Dong Buk Gong jung), they have heavily enforced the border to the North, and have been planning very thoroughly (such as deleting all records of Kokuryo, or stating that it is rightful Chinese history/empire in the past, claiming Mt. Baekdu is theirs.. etc)
Another thing to look at is Kim Jung Nam. This man has always been a joker in the political games of the North. He's not wanted in the North, yet he will probably have to go there for funeral. He has also outspoken to the public media many times against the North or his father. He is very westernized, but we don't know which side he will take. Remember, he is backed by one of the powerful person in the North. So his movement is likely to make some impact, and i just hope that he sides with South/US.
There is no doubt the state is in grave danger. They just fired a test missile in the East Sea. I hope that the people/soldiers will rise up and open up to the South, not the other way around.
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EPT
