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How to predict the winner of MLG

Blogs > Cassel_Castle
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Cassel_Castle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States820 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-23 04:24:10
July 23 2011 04:05 GMT
#1
Or any tournament, for that matter. Note that this says how to, I'm not making my own prediction because there's way too much variance in SC2 to be sure of one winner, but I have noticed patterns that allow you to narrow the field down.

So if you make a prediction based on my advice and get it wrong, don't blame me.

Momentum:

This is the biggest thing that players who do well in tournaments have in common. Players who have done really well recently going into a tournament tend to do really well in that tournament as well. On a similar note, players who go through qualifiers to get into a tournament tend to do better than those who are invited. But don't just take my word for it, let's look at some case studies:

NASL. Puma went through an open bracket with hundreds of players while most of the rest of the tournament played a fairly slow-paced group stage where they only needed to get top 6 to advance to the next round. Also, those players were invited months before, based on performances up to months before that, and Puma went to the finals based on his performance from a few weeks before. Besides Puma, the only other players on hot streaks were Sen and MC, and both got very far.

TSL. There were 8 players who won qualifying tournaments, 8 players who did well in but didn't win those tournaments, 13 invites, and 3 players who qualified by placing well in a BW TSL over a year before. Many expected the invites to win based on their accomplishments, but a good amount of those accomplishments occurred months before the tournament and were no guarantee of the players' present states. As it turned out, all 4 players who made the final four had won a qualifying tournament, which makes sense as those were the hottest players at the time.

Arguably the player with the least momentum to win a tournament was Huk winning Dreamhack, but even then he had just qualified for Code S and gotten past the first super tournament round (losing to the eventual winner) so I'd keep my eSPORTS dollars on someone with momentum.

Edge:

Champions are never boring. When looking for a potential champion, look for someone who trash-talks a bit, is confident in winning, but isn't mad. This includes sometimes IdrA (watch his interview with Hot Bid for an example of "champion" Idra), Huk, Naniwa, MMA, and especially MC. NesTea, MVP, and Thorzain have more of a "mature confidence" but apparently that works too, it's just a little more rare from what I've seen, and I wouldn't call their personalities boring.

Gut Feeling:

If your gut thinks your prediction is wrong, it probably is. Trust your gut. A lot of liquibet people talk about "my heart says X, my brain says Y". The solution is to listen to neither. Don't predict who you hope will win (your heart) and don't do a careful analysis of who will win (your brain) just go with your gut.

Applying this to MLG Anaheim:

First of all, quick note on the MLG system. Because of extended series, double elimination, and so on, you pretty much need to win your group to win the tournament. So then, in any given tournament, there's only four open bracket guys who have a real shot. So you should predict a seeded guy, right?

Wrong. The open bracket players will have a lot more momentum because they'll have just won 5 or so Bo3s in a row. Do not count them out by any means.

Let's look at some open bracket guys with momentum going into the tournament:

A lot of people's players to watch in the open bracket will be players like Alicia, Ganzi, Jinro, and White-Ra because of their many past accomplishments. However, as I said, looking into the far past is not a good way to predict a tournament.

The two names you should keep the biggest eye on are qxc and TT1. qxc is a no-brainer after his recent Korean performance, but TT1 is a little harder. He's shown us he can take games off of Nada and Polt, and he came in 3rd in the recent IEM America qualifier ahead of drewbie, Killer, Fenix, Axslav, StrifeCro, and dde, among other names, and well, most of TT1's open bracket opponents will be American, so it's pretty good to head in coming in ahead of every American allowed to play besides the seeded Idra and Select.

Don't ignore Destiny either, his recent wins over Bomber and Ace give him momentum, and he definitely has the necessary cocky, unboring attitude.

Now let's look at the groups.
Group A [Naniwa, Huk, TLO, Haypro, DongRaeGu]
is a clear choice for a group of death. Haypro and TLO haven't done much recently, but Naniwa, Huk, and DRG are all going in with an insane amount of momentum. Whoever takes the group has a high chance to win the tournament, especially if they beat both of the other high-momentum players. That kind of mental high will be very helpful in the final rounds, as we saw from Thorzain after his difficult TSL road.

In Group B [Idra, Incontrol, Sjow, Sheth, Boxer],
no player has that much momentum, so let's look at the mental edge. Idra and Incontrol have great "champion's attitudes" but both have failed in the clutch in the past. However, I think they'll come into this tournament feeling like badasses after having had a training camp, and I think that the "theft" of Puma will help the confidence of everyone on EG as they got a great practice partner and the whole team came across looking like badasses who will do whatever it takes to win.

But don't ignore Boxer, either. He has loads of experience and he practically oozes "mature confidence." It's been a long time since he's actually won anything, but the potential is strong.

In Group C [Slush, Socke, Ret, Drewbie, MMA],
MMA wins in momentum, edge, and gut feeling. There's very little else to say here, I consider anyone else winning the group to be a huge upset.

Group D [Kiwikaki, Select, Moonan, Machine, MVP]
is tricky. Lots of people might jump and say Kiwi has great mental edge and momentum after WSOP. But looking at it a different way, he hasn't had as much time to play SC2 and he came off a disappointing finish in IPL2.

MVP is another player people might be quick to jump onto, but he's also had a lack of results recently and thus doesn't have much momentum. In terms of raw talent he might be the best player in the group but I wouldn't say he's the favorite, simply because Select is going in with much more momentum.

Select is probably the most likely player to win Anaheim out of players who have never won a major SC2 tournament. He has a champion's attitude (watch the Dignitas at Dallas video) and he's been doing really well since his relatively poor showing at Columbus.

Of course, mental edge and momentum are hard to judge, so don't think too hard about it, and predict with your gut. See some of you there!

+ Show Spoiler +
This was my "placement match" into the blog ladder. Hopefully I don't get bronze league.


**
HydraLF
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Hong Kong626 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-23 04:15:44
July 23 2011 04:13 GMT
#2
Sound like bronze to me sorry.


ps
I don't know about Destiny, I seen him play against good against HuK and Bomber. I also seen him lose 2-0 to some lesser players in some small tournaments lately.

And It got to be one of the koreans, I fancy mvp to take it but he doesn't seem to be doing that well as of now.
Sure.
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-23 04:15:24
July 23 2011 04:14 GMT
#3
4/5. I really liked the analysis, but it could have been formatted a little better in my humble opinion. You definitely hit a bit of a wall of text towards the end. Well, you broke up the lines, but still, not much else separating things. Not a bad first post though. I do hope your comment at the end was actually a request for criticism, though, or I'll feel like the asshole I frequently am.

Me personally, I'm hoping for another Huk win. The TL <3 in the middle of Shakura's halfway through an hour long macro game... mmm that was hot. Huk is a crowd pleaser.
denzelz
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States604 Posts
July 23 2011 04:20 GMT
#4
Your blog was a good effort and it was an interesting read. But predicting Boxer or Destiny to do well at MLG is just...kinda fanboyish.
Cassel_Castle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States820 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-23 04:26:14
July 23 2011 04:25 GMT
#5
A bit more formatting and context added. I think in the context of his group Boxer has a good chance to make Top 8 at least. I explained my reasons for Destiny already, if he's ever going to do well, it's going to start with Anaheim.

I'm more of a Huk/Naniwa fanboy.
JingleHell
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States11308 Posts
July 23 2011 04:29 GMT
#6
On July 23 2011 13:25 Cassel_Castle wrote:
A bit more formatting and context added. I think in the context of his group Boxer has a good chance to make Top 8 at least. I explained my reasons for Destiny already, if he's ever going to do well, it's going to start with Anaheim.

I'm more of a Huk/Naniwa fanboy.


Definitely feels a bit more broken up. Maybe this is personal bias, but I'm actually kind of a fan, when I break things up in that manner, of putting each section, aside from it's header, in spoiler tags.

http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=246342

Kind of like that. Personal preference, of course, but I find it makes it easier to look at sections in context with each other.

I'm also kind of a fan of commas. (Not criticizing your punctuation, just laughing at my own abuse of them.)
udgnim
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8024 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-07-23 04:35:51
July 23 2011 04:34 GMT
#7
DRG's tournament to lose unless he faces Squirtle

MMA is in a slump

MVP just lost to QXC and hasn't had a decent run through GSL for a while

Boxer can't keep up with the pace that SC2 skill level has been growing at

I think Squirtle would be my second choice for possible MLG Anaheim winner.

Huk has improved tremendously but I really think the strategy to beat Huk is just to play safe and play a macro game against him. I think Huk's decision making will falter in long macro games.
E-Sports is competitive video gaming with a spectator fan base. Do not take the word "Sports" literally.
Navillus
Profile Joined February 2011
United States1188 Posts
July 23 2011 04:53 GMT
#8
1/5 For a bunch of reasons, if you're going to start with a theory/hypothesis/strategy/whatever make it better than this. The only reason this might look reasonable is because hindsight is 20/20 but even so you put in examples that really don't fit your own categories, ignore Puma who had no business winning anything if this is right, make "gut feeling" a reason to expect someone to win, and can't even give better predictions than the players who are obviously the best players entering the tournament. Sorry, but I thought you would at least prefer to know why I gave a 1/5 :\
"TL gives excellent advice 99% of the time. The problem is no one listens to it." -Plexa
Itsmedudeman
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States19229 Posts
July 23 2011 04:59 GMT
#9
I honestly think your points having nothing to do with determining the winner except maybe momentum.

The qualifiers only hurt you in this tournament format. The other examples you listed the qualifiers weren't held all on 1 day prior to the playoffs and a lot of people coming from overseas are going to be jetlagged and will need rest the most.

Qxc, TT1, and destiny? If any of those players come close to winning the tournament, let's say top 5, I will eat my family.

MMA wins in momentum and edge? He's probably one of the most calm, collected guys out there, and he's on an 11 game losing streak and didn't even play as their ace in the match against TSL.

How the hell is select the favorite? Honestly, this sounds like the most biased foreign fanboyism I've ever seen. What major tournament has he won? Huk has the most momentum out of anyone going into this, but everyone's momentum has to end eventually and you can't just keep winning tournaments.
mgl0x9
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States256 Posts
July 23 2011 05:24 GMT
#10
I actually think that destiny will have his best MLG showing this time around.
Zerg Ownz your face off
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