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Korea (South)1897 Posts
So in parts 1 & 2, we looked at the drive and the mind set to prepare and learn so you can start to compete, and for the most part, we spend actually 90% preparing and 10% competing; now we are looking at the most fundamental characteristic to actually get into the game and begin to compete which defines that 10%: Confidence.
Lets get right down to the real confidence; real confidence never leaves you, it defines you, it brings out your strengths for the world to see and allows you press on beyond set-backs and mistakes in the process. Confidence is the only thing that makes a competitor truly a competitor, show me someone who knows everything and can do everything and has no confidence, and you'll see just a broken loser who simply cannot put things into action or wrought with indecision.
Bad Boy/ Bully Confidence
Some guys look like they were born with confidence, well that is bullshit, real confidence always developed, but most of the confidence you see out there is the Bad Boy/Bully confidence. These guys seem so confidence and women love it (and why shouldn't they, at least they are doing something other than pretending to be a nice guy in order to get into the panties at least they are honest about it lol)- no I'm no dating guru or pick up artist or some crap like that, no, I'm talking about the worthlessness of this kind of confidence because when the bad boy or bully is confronted , what happens, the bad boy or bully, may huff and puff, but ultimately maybe they apologize or see the errors of their way and suddenly are meek and powerless.
Now, maybe the confidence was a front because they have problems peeing or something, I don't know, or maybe they just didn't know better, father didn't spank them, but the fact is, when you have a real confidence, you CONFRONT THE PROBLEM. That is what confidence allows you to do first, without it, you're gonna do whatever you can to avoid it in the first place because you don't know if you can deal with it. So when these guys get confronted, their 'confidence' breaks down.
In competing, when you start the competition, you need to look'em in the eye and say, 'I don't care if I win or lose, but I'm going to take this to the very end' and when others who are seemly more qualified, more experienced, more knowledgeable are set up against you, you can blink and then you have no chance.
Mike Tyson said, whenever he got into a fight, he never once took his eyes away from his opponent, never once, and if they LOOK AWAY even for a split second, he knew he already had beaten them. Confidence to confront the odds and the competitors. At the end of the day, its not the credentials or past results that make it happen, if you're already in the competition, then you are by default qualified to be there as much as anyone else.
Lost Confidence to the Girl
When you're young and you're in a relationship, people always tell you, 'be yourself', and while you kinda know what that means, if someone needs to advise you that way, then you're fucked already, because you've already likely lost your confidence and the only way to regain it and be yourself again is by separating.
Thing is, you have confidence, so the girl is attracted to you, why, because your confidence BRINGS OUT THE BEST in you, and its not an extroverted thing, its simply you at your best. You start to wonder why she likes you, then you over speculated, try to anticipate what she wants, but all she wants is you being you and you start to not being you at all, on the outside. OF COURSE you are still you, but without the confidence, it doesn't show, it isn't expressed and you on your way to separation ville.
It's freaking hard to lose your confidence in this case; in some ways, its the worse because you think you can simply just turn it back on, but you can't. The reason why is because your confidence has been tested and you you just didn't think you were good enough for whatever reason and it fucked you up. If you thought you were good enough, why would you have even thought to do more, what? you're some damn romantic?, no, you just started to second guess yourself and then you did need something else because your confidence got eroded and you got lost in there.
It goes without saying, you lose your confidence, YOUR PERFORMANCE IS FUCKED, but what you need to know here is, your confidence will be tested, all the time and you just need to remember, any which way or how to just know in your heart that you are good enough, you can do it, you can figure it out, its just a set-back and then not to second guess yourself any more and just do it. Cause when you just do it, you're at your best.
Now, this is a learning process and it is a life long learning process to really build up a real confidence, and has nothing to do with your actual skill, but how you can consistently apply that skill. So the short of it is; CONFIDENCE BUILDS UP OVER TIME and is TESTED CONTINUALLY OVER TIME and there is nothing you can do about it, You will lose your confidence over periods in your life, you will lose sight of who you are and you just can't flip a switch and fix it, its just one of those things that need time for you to recover from: basically, this is the stamina or resilience of your confidence building.
So I'll say 3 points to this, when you're in the funk, because your confidence 'stamina/resilience' is building.
1. You are just as worth as anyone out there, maybe you can't do it now, maybe you're not as qualified, but time is on your side.
2. This will pass, the setbacks, the hardships, if you focus and be dedicated, it will pass. You will have a job, you will make money, you will be promoted, you will get the results.
3. Do something you like to do that isn't achievement oriented to center yourself. Life isnt' always about achievement or competition; I don't do what I do so I can just make money and destroy other people in business, no I enjoy my family, my friends, playing volleyball. Just go out side and run for bit, or cycle (be aware though, don't get into an accident) and then you will become centered. DON'T FREAKING PLAY CUSTOM MAPS TO GET SOME MINOR WIN TO MAKE YOURSELF FEEL BETTER. That is just delaying things, just do something you just really love and your mind will settle itself.
You just need some time to realize, that this is a process, you've lost your confidence because it simply wasn't strong enough and now it is developing.
PLEASE NOTE: my advice is not for slackers, it assumes you already prepared, already are focused and working hard. If you want some of that advice, go get some freaking self help book or do some personality tests until you've fed your procrastination beast and then just say 'fuck this shit' make a routine and schedule and stick to it. It's really that straight forward (sorry for the aside, but I want my message to be in the right context so that when my son reads this, he ain't felling sorry for himself and doing things right like a man)
Faking It Confidence
Now a lot of hack in business, who have avoided the conflict and just flown under the radar and steal other people's ideas etc have this faking it confidence and they are extremely political and concentrate on controlling their work environment and are very challenge adverse. Everything you do and what others do around them is somehow translated into a personal attack, etc. Cause they know, they lucked into the job and they are scared every day that someone is going to find out.
OK, if you were fully qualfied for a job, then why take it? You always take jobs you're not completely qualfid for, why, because that is what you do as a competitor, you go bigger, higher, faster and as long as you have the basic requirements, you go for it. But once you are in, you gotta learn things 100% inside and out and then aim higher. Once you are always aiming higher, your confidence in what you are doing now, will always be stronger and real because your skill set is always relative. If what you do is at the highest job function, then you'll never be fully confident about it, but if its an entry level skill position and you are aiming for senior manager in 3 years, well you get the the confidence to frame your work as simply basic crap, and this applies when you are at a higher level of work as well.
Other CEOs and VP from other gaming companies can talk shit to me about how they know this and that, but I can call em out on that their shit as well because while I was a Regional Director and not at the VP/CEO level, I never, never accepted that I would stay at a senior director position, no, it was CEO or busto.
Same way, you don't wanna be a hack with a bullshit confidence in your work environment, you need to keep aiming higher.
Choking & Panic
Malcolm Gladwell, in his book, 'What the dog saw' writes on the competitive aspect of Choking and Panic. When you panic, its because you've lost confidence and your mind is a blank because you're relatively inexperienced, so your mind draws a blank. So you panic and do nothing or crazy shit.
Choking is when you lose confidence in your own natural abilities and then instead of letting your automatic skill kick in, you start to break things down consciously and deliberately and then you revert to the steps when you first learned the skill and then you start fuking up like a mofo.
BOTH ARE BAD, in being in panic mode, its because you weren't prepared enough. In being in choking mode its because you fundamentally doubted yourself and thought you weren't good enough and need something more, so you started to over think it and then Fail.
Ok, sometimes we aren't prepared, some times its an act of nature, when you are faced with panic mode, you need to go into war mode. Meaning imagine if you were in Seoul now and North Korea attacked with its army of 3 million infantry, wtf are you going to do. Ok, there is no preparation for this, but you gotta get into that war mode and just break it down to the final objective: get to pusan. And then see what can be done and that's it. Just concentrate on the final objective and look around. So the business presentation on the USB stick got mistakenly erased, its not on email and the presentation is everything and the meeting is in 10 mins, and you already tried everything to get it; what do you? Just look to the final objective: getting the deal signed. the objective is not to blame or try to make a new presentation, just get speaking notes together and either be honest or just delay the meeting or wing it. But as long as you keep your eye on the final objective, you can make the best of it, I'm not saying, save, it, you're already screwed, we established that, but to at least not stand there silent or run away, you need to still be intelligent about it.
Choking:
Damn, this is just practice and raw confidence, you are the best and just because of self doubt you blow it, that has got to be the worst feeling; Galdwell uses an example of a pro tennis player who played steffi graff back in the day and she was up a set and on the game point on the second set (also being up like 3 games) and she lost it all and it happened again the next month. That is like having a 10 zero lead in baseball on the bottom of the ninth and still losing or being up 3-0 in the last 15 mins of a football/soccer game. Its really really bad and she basically choked.
It will happen and you need to power through it, just say, 'FUCK IT! JUST ONE TIME, STOP BEING A PUSSY, THIS IS ALREADY DONE, etc.' But most times, when you have that confidence resilience up, you're always the one saying, 'make me the go to guy' the one that has the last 3 pointer in a 2 down game in basketball and there is only one last play left. If you can think of yourself as the go-to guy, then you'll never be in a position to choke in a regular high pressured situation, because you know you are preparing yourself to be the guy where the entire business could live or die on your shoulders. Now, of course the business should never be at that point, no matter how good anyone is, that is just irresponsible management to get to that point, but my point is: you don't want to choke, train and put yourself forward as if you are always going to be the 'go to guy' and you'll never choke (unless they actually make you the go-to guy and then buddy, you're own your own, I hope you prepared like a mofo ^^)
Confidence is Everything
I'm not going to get into this thing about being cocky or overly confidence or arrogant etc, I really could give a fuck whether or not people say those things about me, unless it is close friends, family or colleagues that i truly trust, why do I need to endure a mind fuck from some people who don't really know me or who could be haters or just have to say shit like that. Look, that is a maturity thing, if you are mature enough, you'll know when you are being overboard and stubborn and its a learning process, sometimes you're over board, so what, it happens to everyone, and if you really are an ass, someone higher up will humiliate you eventually if it's too much.
No, what I want to conclude is, whether its driving or working or studying or romancing, confidence is just bringing out the best of you and there is nothing ever wrong with that and people want to say your arrogant or cocky or that you should be more humble, well I say, if you have worked hard like a mofo, then tell em to fuck off. You are humble enough to prepare to take the beats like a man, to teach others to learn from others, but when its time to COMPETE, you bring out all the confidence you have and let it just be there and you do your thing.
Confidence is Elusive
Don't mistake it, whatever you need to keep your confidence up, use it and don't be ashamed by it, because at different points of our lives we have different levels of our confidence resilience and sometimes we need things to reassure us. For most men, the major of their innate base confidence comes from a really loving mother or really loving wife. Its just the way it is, the old cliche (behind every great man is a great woman) is right, but its not because the woman is telling the man what to do, that's a woman's interpretation, but rather a woman can control a man's confidence by making him the best he can be because he knows his mom or his wife will always believe that he can do it, they have that power to impart to a man and vise versa.
But when I go to a really important meeting, I dress to the nines, I pull out my best tie, my cuff links, my diamond rolex and I'm probably wearing more than half my net worth on me and I pull out 1 k and have it in my pocket. 'Childish, immatures, vain, superficial, a real man wouldn't need that stuff' yeah, people might say this, but like I give a fuck and you shouldn't either, like I said, confidence is not a natural state to be in because its always attacked, whatever you can reasonably do without it being a crutch then do it. Just know, confidence is a mental state and whatever reassurance or routine you need to go through to just put yourself in a comfortable or ready state to compete, do it, it is this attention to detail that can be a ritual in itself.
So, I'll leave you guys with these two points:
Confidence, you know it makes you the best of you, but it takes time to strengthen and strengthen rightly and not out of stubbornness or ignorance, but like tempered steel, fixing your minuet mistakes, teaching others, preparing and knowing that you will lose your confidence and will have to really FIGHT to get it back.
You will always get it back, because you are a mutherfucking competitor. In the immortal words of Johnny Drama:
"Back in the Game? I am the Fucking Game pal!"
 
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I'd like to thank you for your blogs over the past few days. You have shared much wisdom and experience through them, and I feel obliged to show my personal appreciation in at least this small post.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
cheers, its appreciated as well. ^^
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Thanks, this really helped me on ladder. ^_^
I love your blogs man 
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This is so good. Most people got turned down by the block of text but its a pretty good read. Imo, because the attention span of an avg tl'er is shorter than the build time of chronobosted observers, you need some pictures to spice it up. Good read overall :D
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I'm going to compile a collection of your blogs someday, hahaha.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
@ sadistix & ghrur ^^
@ maga33 I'll try to put in some videos later keke, but i love your analogy..keke.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
when mightyatom is around you don't even need your own confidence anymore
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
lol rek, thats only when I'm in a business situation or in a cocky mood, otherwise, I'm just a fat happy guy. ^^
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
Among all the people I have dealt with in my life, the genuinely confident ones seem to have a mindset about life and themselves which can range from pure submissive humility to a bombastic grandiose attitude of self-entitlement. These truly confident people can turn the meter of their demeanors from one end of the spectrum to another or anywhere in between in an instant depending on what they feel necessary to deal with the social situation at hand. In they end they realize that they are just trying to live life to the fullest and are smart enough to realize that no personality should be set in stone because to get the most from life you have to be willing to adapt to people and situations.
Insecure confidence lacking people, on the other hand, are perpetually stuck on one end of the spectrum. Whether they are wimpy and easy to walk over or they are constantly trying to make their egos fly over everyone with a chip on their shoulders, it means only one thing. Zero confidence.
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Excellent and inspiring blog 
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Always a fan of your blogs. Keep it up!
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
Rek, you so damn articulate ^^... you need to come back to Korea in May for your second godchild.
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2 questions. Do you post here before you put these articles on your blog?
"confidence is not a natural state to be in because its always attacked" -- did you write that?
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
On October 26 2010 08:31 KurtistheTurtle wrote:
2 questions. Do you post here before you put these articles on your blog?
"confidence is not a natural state to be in because its always attacked" -- did you write that?
It completely depends on my mood, sometimes I'll just post content here, and sometimes I'll just post content there and yes I did write that, although I'm sure someone in the world someone wrote it first or many times over, but it's my words and thoughts.
Cheers.
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Hey MightyAtom,
Thanks again for a great blog.
The reason why I always love reading your blogs / always comment is because they really make me feel awesome. Its mostly because I feel like you seem to say things I always think about all the time.
Reading Rek's comment made me feel pretty baller because that's exactly what I think about my own confidence spectrum.
Hope one day I can use my talents/skills and become as successful you in the business world.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
Great to hear, but I ain't successful yet, just capable ^^
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May I get your permission to start compiling and archiving your posts @ my home PC? I sure would like to read them offline, edit them a bit so I'm not irritated by the lack of grammar due to them being stream of thought posts, and get them into something digestible.
But it makes me always ask myself... how does self improvement work? Do you change everything all at the same time, or do you slowly mold the others while the focus of your improvement progresses more rapidly than the others? (Best SC analogy would be going for a single segment of the tech tree [tech whoring to Archives or Robo/Support/Obs] and committing to it heavily vs across the board [+1/+1] upgrades for a whole chunk of your forces.)
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in my experience, a gradual process you're conscious of but you don't "notice" until the occasional giant leap which happens
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
On October 26 2010 16:49 Ciryandor wrote:
May I get your permission to start compiling and archiving your posts @ my home PC? I sure would like to read them offline, edit them a bit so I'm not irritated by the lack of grammar due to them being stream of thought posts, and get them into something digestible.
But it makes me always ask myself... how does self improvement work? Do you change everything all at the same time, or do you slowly mold the others while the focus of your improvement progresses more rapidly than the others? (Best SC analogy would be going for a single segment of the tech tree [tech whoring to Archives or Robo/Support/Obs] and committing to it heavily vs across the board [+1/+1] upgrades for a whole chunk of your forces.)
Ciryandor, you have my permission for your personal usage ^^;
I'd edited them more on the main blog and fixed up the grammar there.
I've actually gotten frustrated editing them online/formating because the typepad program isn't the most responsive also I tried the windows 10 feature, but it's not a seamless integrated feature.
I'm on the verge of launching my two new ventures so I am going to get someone to professionally organize and edit the blog and the content, so if you want to wait a month, then I'm sure it will be more digestible and I also cringe when re-reading the posts as well lol.
I can't really comment on self-improvement, I reckon it is a lot about doing challenging things and learning from the mistakes, life is organic, we change, we grow, but only if its in a challenging environment, so I reckon...
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What is confidence?
Being able to support your prediction of the out come of some event with evidence on why your prediction is accurate?
That means faking confidence is predicting an out come of some event with insufficient evidence?
For me confidence is not real, it is a concept, an idea like human rights, we made it up.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
On November 18 2010 07:46 rei wrote:
What is confidence?
Being able to support your prediction of the out come of some event with evidence on why your prediction is accurate?
That means faking confidence is predicting an out come of some event with insufficient evidence?
For me confidence is not real, it is a concept, an idea like human rights, we made it up.
rei, I think you're getting your contexts a bit mixed up, please understand that my posts aren't philosophical or theoretical points, they are for the application for business and developing a competitive mentality.
I have no doubt as to what is confidence and how it is applied, so the short of it is; it is not 'confidence or belief' in an idea, like predicting something, that is too superficial of an understanding of what I am stating, and quite meaningless, rather, it is the confidence in the doing, that as you do, as you are in action, you have confidence to not choke or panic and to put your best step forward.
I'm not much for meaningless theoretical discussion, if you want to talk about ideas of confidence and human rights and how they are simply man made concepts, this ain't the post for them, this is about application.
Cheers.
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On November 18 2010 07:46 rei wrote:
What is confidence?
Being able to support your prediction of the out come of some event with evidence on why your prediction is accurate?
That means faking confidence is predicting an out come of some event with insufficient evidence?
For me confidence is not real, it is a concept, an idea like human rights, we made it up.
Yep fully agree. Personally I believe 80% of people or so who say they have "confidence" are trying to cover up insecurities. We all have insecurities. If you really look at people in general, we are very weak alone.
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"I'm not much for meaningless theoretical discussion"
It is meaningless for you, but not for me, When i see gravity in action, want to know how it works and why it works the way it does. Newton figured out how gravity works, Einstein tried to figure out why it works the way it does till his dying breath.
I'm trying to learn, nothing more nothing less, for me to learn I need to ask questions. you show us your experience as examples in how confidence worked for you, and suggest how others can build their confidence with your suggestions. I'm merely trying to figure out why it worked.
And before I can ask why, i first need to have a more clear definition of what is confidence, I might have missed it, but I can't seem to find a clear definition on what confidence is on your OP, you gave many examples of what is confidence and what is not confidence, how to get it, and how to work toward it.
I try to give a definition of what is confident and what is not confident base on my understand in my first reply, the question mark at the end of those 2 sentence is aim to ask if you agree. Since you want to talk about this as an application of confidence, then let me re-phase how i would define confidence.
Positive example: I am confident that I will be able to solve the math problem 1+1, the evidence for this prediction is the fact that 1) I have experience with the mathematical operation "addition" tens of thousands of times, and 2) I have the calculator technology on my finger tips to double check and ensure I will arrive in the correct solution. These evidence is why i'm confident.
Negative example: I am confident that I will be able to beat rekrul on starcraft2 1vs1, the evidence for this prediction is that fact that I have reach over 2000 on NA ladder, and have over 1000 sc2 game in my b.net account.
Does this mean being confident comes down to how well researched a subject in question is? The more we know about a given event, the better we will be able to predict the outcome of some event?
On the Negative example I have no information on how good rekrul is, my prediction on beating rekrul is not supported by facts. On the positive example I have benefits of my experience in preforming the same task and a back up plan with a calculator to ensure the outcome of the event.
Another way to look at these 2 example, in the positive example the predictor of the event is in full control of the procedure of the event. Where the negative example, the predictor does not control how well rekrul can play sc2, hence insufficient evidence to support his prediction. And the prediction would change depend on what rekrul's skill is in sc2.
Confidence is result of these factual evidences, the more evidence we have, the higher the confidences, that's why i said confidence is not real, we label it with this concept, we don't measure confidences, we measure factual evidences to predict an outcome.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
k lets bet 100$ on a game right now
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
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haha I knew it wouldn't be this ez to steal money from rekrul.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
i don't play sc2 at all (played 50 games total here and there), should have called the bet while u had the chance
offer off the table now
shoulda been more confident, because true confidence isn't about absolute certainty
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I thought asking for your username and ID# = accepting your bet, but I guess we have different interpretation on what I should type when accepting a bet.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
On November 18 2010 17:32 rei wrote:
I thought asking for your username and ID# = accepting your bet, but I guess we have different interpretation on what I should type when accepting a bet.
obviously its u trying to look at my stats....
LOL
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na, that's not even logical to assume i will try to look you up, do you know why? because you have a reputation to protect and I don't. If you lose you must pay up, if you win, you have no guarantee that I will pay up.
Obviously its you that's backing out, but sometimes folding is winning in the poker world right? but since this is not poker you don't even lose your money when someone called your buff.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
On November 18 2010 17:42 rei wrote:
na, that's not even logical to assume i will try to look you up, do you know why? because you have a reputation to protect and I don't. If you lose you must pay up, if you win, you have no guarantee that I will pay up.
Obviously its you that's backing out, but sometimes folding is winning in the poker world right? but since this is not poker you don't even lose your money when someone called your buff.
obviously i would have made u send me the $ b4 the game then i send back double if i lose lol. next time u wanna call say call
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well, since you are backing out from the $bet, how about I propose a grudge match bo7, winner has to buy the loser drinks next time we meet up in real life? I will try hard to buy you drinks kk?
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
On November 18 2010 17:54 rei wrote:
well, since you are backing out from the $bet, how about I propose a grunge match bo7, winner has to buy the loser drinks next time we meet up in real life? I will try hard to buy you drinks kk?
i gave you a window of opportunity to take a free 100$ off me if only you had the confidence. you instead asked for my username/id so that you could look me up to see if it was a bet you could likely win. don't try and act like i'm backing out you little sneak!
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you are backing out on the grudge match too? common now, you are the almighty rekrul, and i'm just another nobody, i guess not having On November 18 2010 17:30 Rekrul wrote:
absolute certainty you don't have the confidence in buying me drinks?
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
there are many things i do that i am very confident in
one of the top ones is being compelled to buy people drinks for no reason
no need for a grudge match
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I will be the one buying when we meet
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
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just to barge in a little bit, this must be the most gentleman-like trashtalk I've ever seen. This should be hyped up
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I've never seen two people argue over who's gonna buy the drinks like this... I mean you're complete strangers...
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I'm willing to bet 100$ that Rekrul won that argument.
You may claim it here in Manila in Philippine Pesos if I lose.
Edit: Damn grammar error.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
On November 18 2010 17:15 rei wrote:
"I'm not much for meaningless theoretical discussion"
It is meaningless for you, but not for me, When i see gravity in action, want to know how it works and why it works the way it does. Newton figured out how gravity works, Einstein tried to figure out why it works the way it does till his dying breath.
I'm trying to learn, nothing more nothing less, for me to learn I need to ask questions. you show us your experience as examples in how confidence worked for you, and suggest how others can build their confidence with your suggestions. I'm merely trying to figure out why it worked.
And before I can ask why, i first need to have a more clear definition of what is confidence, I might have missed it, but I can't seem to find a clear definition on what confidence is on your OP, you gave many examples of what is confidence and what is not confidence, how to get it, and how to work toward it.
I try to give a definition of what is confident and what is not confident base on my understand in my first reply, the question mark at the end of those 2 sentence is aim to ask if you agree. Since you want to talk about this as an application of confidence, then let me re-phase how i would define confidence.
Positive example: I am confident that I will be able to solve the math problem 1+1, the evidence for this prediction is the fact that 1) I have experience with the mathematical operation "addition" tens of thousands of times, and 2) I have the calculator technology on my finger tips to double check and ensure I will arrive in the correct solution. These evidence is why i'm confident.
Negative example: I am confident that I will be able to beat rekrul on starcraft2 1vs1, the evidence for this prediction is that fact that I have reach over 2000 on NA ladder, and have over 1000 sc2 game in my b.net account.
Does this mean being confident comes down to how well researched a subject in question is? The more we know about a given event, the better we will be able to predict the outcome of some event?
On the Negative example I have no information on how good rekrul is, my prediction on beating rekrul is not supported by facts. On the positive example I have benefits of my experience in preforming the same task and a back up plan with a calculator to ensure the outcome of the event.
Another way to look at these 2 example, in the positive example the predictor of the event is in full control of the procedure of the event. Where the negative example, the predictor does not control how well rekrul can play sc2, hence insufficient evidence to support his prediction. And the prediction would change depend on what rekrul's skill is in sc2.
Confidence is result of these factual evidences, the more evidence we have, the higher the confidences, that's why i said confidence is not real, we label it with this concept, we don't measure confidences, we measure factual evidences to predict an outcome.
Aside from the very enjoyable exchange between you and rek,
to be very straight, you've miss my point.
The fact that you feel the need to deconstruction and define something like confidence, when you and I both know you do have some type of inherent working definition of confidence that you use in your every day life, means you want to turn this into an intellectual exercise, which you have.
Obviously you can determine how I am using confidence in the context of my posts, but you chose to rather further intellectualize it to fit in an approach that is ineffectual for this type of discussion.
Don't think that I am simply replying to what is the first thing on my mind, re-read my first reply. If you would reply in the same way, then that is cool, but I'd reckon you're being too smart to be competitive. ^^
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EPT
