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That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans.
@chaoser
Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways.
I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early.
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Just finished checking up on the thread, unfortunately I have finals in an hour. So I don't have the time right now to reply to Shikyo. Will do so when I get back.
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Alright, I'm back. Goddamn math is hard. Anyways, time to write up that reply.
On May 19 2009 08:17 Shikyo wrote:All right, guys. I'm going to tell you something that caught my eye. BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. The post was this: Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 00:31 BWdero wrote:That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans. @chaoser Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways. I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early. This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
The reason I said day 1 clue analysis is rubbish is because in a previous game I put way too much value on day 1 clue analysis. (the pikachu thing in game 5, ask Pyrrhuloxia if you don't know what I'm talking about) Once I figured out how useless day 1 clue analysis is on it's own I really felt stupid for putting so much weight into it. Which is the reason I feel so strongly about it.
I said only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early because, well, it's true. Only a mafia that is truly an idiot would do something to give himself away so early in the game.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Yes, a towny would use the word betray like that. You're reading too much into things.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
I didn't bandwagon so I'm suspicious? Great logic there. The reason I voted for JeeJee was specifically to avoid a bandwagon. You see, I was afraid that everyone would start to just bandwagon vote for you, so I decided to mix things up with a vote for JeeJee. Who seems like a decent candidate to me. You yourself admitted his platform was better than your other competitors. And I figured I could always change my vote if a better option came up. At this point it's pretty obvious you will get sherrif. And JeeJee looks like he's a good option for mayor to me.
What do you guys think about this?
I think you're reading too much into things.
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@zeks, well I'd like to have an inactive lynched. And yes I support that despite the fact that there's a chance we'll hit a blue because that blue wouldn't have been useful anyways, what with being inactive and all that.
Oh and you claim that I did some minor clue analysis, please point me to where I did that because I'm pretty sure i didn't.
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On May 20 2009 04:23 softer wrote:
The race for mayor is pretty close still.. Could the contenders please state their strategy for the day 1 lynch?
A name would be nice.
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On May 20 2009 05:08 Jimtudor wrote:
As of now, the day 1 lynch will be an inactive or de facto inactive player. The one with the strongest logical clues towards it and/or inconsistent behaviour from previous games will get lynched. I am not sure about Jayme yet. Will be back with more.
The way I use my following votes will be both clue based and behaviour based depending on the strength of the evidence with that particular vote. My votes should align mostly with the general sentiment of the town unless I sense a bs/bandwgon vote led by mafia.
Any chance on you telling us which name you sent to Pyhrry? Or haven't you done that yet?
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On May 20 2009 19:21 Shikyo wrote:
I have a feeling that most of the mafia is still hiding under the pile of the inactives, so everyone really should be more active.
There's probably a few mafia still being somewhat inactive, but I strongly suspect most of them are active enough to avoid an inactive lynch at this point. Because staying inactive when it's obvious this town hates inactives is really not the best thing mafia could do.
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On May 21 2009 21:46 teks wrote:
There is one more possible reason for only two hits though: Inactivity. This wouldn't surprise me at all seeing how many inactive people we have in this game. If a few mafia were to be inactive and not submit their orders.. you get the picture. The other possibility is - if I understand how the mafia works correctly - lack of organization. Since 6-7 mafia have 3 KP, I'm assuming that means that each target needs to be hit by 2 mafia in order for the kill to happen? So if these 2 mafia spread to two different targets, they basically lose 1 KP?
I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do.
That's not how it works. Mafia send in a list of people they want to hit. Let's say mafia has 5 killpower. They want to hit player 1 twice and players 2 3 and 4 once. In order to do this a single mafia sends phyrry a hitlist. The list would look like this.
1 player 1
2 player 1
3 player 2
4 player 3
5 player 4
All mafia needs to utilize their full killpower is only 1 active guy.
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On May 21 2009 21:55 teks wrote:
Oh, ok. I was assuming that each mafia member had to PM the orders to Pyrr. Never mind what I said then :p
I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim.
Not really. For starters, how in the world would the veteran confirm himself as veteran? And even if he could I would think mafia would want to kill a confirmed townie.
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On May 22 2009 02:46 chaoser wrote:
no one really besides me has made a case for double lynch. what do you think about it?
I think we should go for it. The more lynches we have the faster we can confirm or deny our suspicions.
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So I'm busy with my finals week and thus have no time for mafia. Then, finally, I have to time to relax and think to myself 'alright, time to step up and start really contributing to town'
Then I see I was lynched.
;_;
edit: i suggest town surrenders, you obviously suck balls.
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EPT
