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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
(Note: I'm not playing.)
I can see the day post now:
Ace sat silent in his study. With his bodyguard numbers dwindling, he knew tonight would be his last night on Earth. He had done his best to pass his wisdom and knowledge on to the townspeople, and now nothing remained but to contemplate the meaning of life and his existence. ...
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 08 2008 21:54 araav wrote: Bill, at least you could ban Showtime - that could be a great contribution I wish.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Oh shit, I go to a tournament and forget about TL Mafia for a bit, then I come back and suddenly 1999999981 days have passed. 
It's good to see qrs has basically done what I wanted to do originally, i.e. assemble the evidence that many people had likely forgotten about. It's also ironic that in the past he was almost constantly arguing with Ace and then with the later clue-analysers, but now he is our best one.
Although Wysp / his associate pointed the finger at ahrara_, qrs's analysis trumps their reputation, imo. To verify it, I looked to see how many known mafia voted for Ace in the election. There was only one: Mandalor. Furthermore, he practically got himself lynched by claiming the Detective role, then went on to say:
On March 24 2008 06:52 Mandalor wrote: Hey I voted for Ace as well! lol Anyway, if he was the one and only mafioso to vote for Ace then I wouldn't be surprised. So I'll go with qrs and vote for infun-whatever. 
ydg: Are you sure that Mandalor list isn't one of the lists that was wrong? Where did you find it, and can you search further ahead in the topic to see if it was later taken back?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 17 2008 14:43 Chuiu wrote: Ha ha funny. D:
EDIT: Oh yeah, no new players today and I will be mostly AWOL the 17th while I celebrate being born for the umpteenth time. Woah, you've been born more than once?
Happy Birthday!
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote: I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information. imo the voting patterns clue holds far more weight than this strategic benefit. This is because the clue makes it very unlikely that CDRdude is red and infun is green.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 01:50 CDRdude wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote: I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information. You bring up a really good point. Honestly, you've almost convinced me to lynch CDRdude, but it's against the rules for me to vote for that guy. Random fact: in a previous mafia game on StarEdit.net, it used to be to be legal to vote for yourself to be lynched. However, this rule was changed after a game where the vote was tied between a mafioso and a towny, and both would have been lynched in that case (because of their rule for handling ties), but then AT THE LAST MOMENT the towny VOTES FOR HIMSELF and saves the mafioso! His reasoning: he didn't think the mafioso guy was mafia, so he wanted to save him.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 02:38 ahrara_ wrote: What the hell? I made a post here with some analysis on infundiblum and it never showed up. Well basically what I said was that infundiblum's defense of why he voted for randombum was ripped off other people's posts... mine included.
Wysp is right tho. I am mafia =) Uh... what?
Edit: apparently you used to have a profile pic before, judging from the "TLMafia alive users" blog. What happened to it?
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Anyway, one thing that troubles me is that we can't pin any of the clues to iNfuNdiBuLuM's name (which means a funnel-shaped organ in the body) or his profile (a guy wearing a viking hat with a propeller on top).
Based on the clues that qrs posted, here are the general traits of each mafioso:
Mr. Orange: Almost always cuts the phone lines of his victim.
Mr. Blue: Always kills people by stabbing them (e.g. with an umbrella tip on Day 7), shredding them (e.g. in a car shredder on Day 11), or generally cutting them up.
Mr Blonde: Has great speed and agility. Was even hanging from the ceiling on Day 2.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On June 11 2008 13:39 ahrara_ wrote: when I am the last mafia lynched I am going to laugh
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
So I'm going through the non-Mandalor list to see if I can match anyone up with the profiles for the remaining mafia.
The TLMafia alive users blog has been very helpful. qrs's list of clues for the remaining mafia has also been a great asset. 
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
HotZhot + Show Spoiler + - Photo shows an animal or wolf-like creature. The creature looks like it'd be a good fit for someone who is very fast and agile, like Mr. Blonde, and who could potentially hang off of a ceiling (Day 2). In addition, Mr. Blonde often appears out of nowhere (e.g. Day 1, Day 2, Day 17) which would be easier if he were mostly-black, as is the character in HotZhot's photo. On Day 2, Mr. Blonde hides in darkness and isn't visible until the lights are turned on, which again makes sense if he is black. - Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
Dr.Dragoon + Show Spoiler + - No pic or public profile. - Quote seems irrelevant. - "Dragoon is the traditional name for a soldier trained to fight on foot but who transports himself on horseback." (from Wikipedia) Doesn't seem to fit any of the clues.
CDRdude + Show Spoiler + - No photo and no public profile. - Quote talks about a lurker so he can possibly be linked to Mr. Blue for some of the same reasons as jtan and DTDominion (see below). However, only jtan can be linked to the attack-dodging aspect of Mr. Blue's clues.
Fen: deceased.
Puosu + Show Spoiler +- No photo and no quote. - Public profile shows ,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,. which IIRC someone long ago mentioned might be related to Mr. Blue's chainsaws and buzzsaws. However, it doesn't seem to fit Day 7 when Mr. Blue stabbed with an umbrella tip instead. - Definition of name seems unhelpful. Nothing inspiring comes up after a Google Image search, either.
KF91 + Show Spoiler + - No photo or public profile. - Quote seems useless. - Google Image search for name turns up pictures of hard disks. Only possible link seems to be "91" being similar to "911" and Mr. Orange's phoneline-cutting to prevent people from dialing 911. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
MasterOfChaos: deceased.
Kuja900 + Show Spoiler + - No photo and no public profile. - Quote seems useless. - Name "Kuja900" turns up nothing, however "Kuja" is a villian from FF9. His appearance might fit Mr. Blonde's speed and agility, but it's a stretch, and HotZhot's photo fits Mr. Blonde much much better imo.
KorvspaD + Show Spoiler +- No photo and no public profile. - Quote doesn't match any of the mafia profiles. - For his name, the best I could find was this Wikipedia page (translated from Swedish to English). Apparently there is an expression in Swedish involving the word "Korvspad" which means "clear as day". This doesn't seem to fit any of the mafia.
Ziel + Show Spoiler + - No public profile. - Quote doesn't fit any mafia. - Photo shows the ultralisk icon, which might connect Ziel with Mr. Blue and his tendency to kill his victims by cutting them up. - Ziel is evidently a German word meaning "goal" or "target", which doesn't seem to fit any mafia.
jtan + Show Spoiler + - As we all know, his photo shows marines microing against a lurker. His tie to Mr. Blue is that Mr. Blue's weapons are analogous to the lurker's spines. In addition, there is sometimes a theme of attacks being dodged or the victim getting away unscathed (e.g. Day 6, possibly Day 7, possibly Day 9) which is analogous to the marines in the photo dodging the lurker's attack. Furthermore, there are occasions where Mr. Blue cannot be seen (e.g. Day 10, possibly Day 16), analogous to the lurker being burrowed. All things considered, this is a very strong link. - Ignoring other attributes since his photo seems like the best evidence against him, by far. - Voted for nemy on Day 18.
RowdierBob + Show Spoiler + - No public profile. - Quote doesn't fit any mafia. - Photo shows a guy poking another guy in the eye, with the caption "life is pain". A very weak connection with stabbing or other painful killing. Furthermore, the mafia's kills are always going to be very painful. - Name doesn't fit any mafia. None stand out as "rowdy".
DTDominion + Show Spoiler + - No photo, quote, or public profile. - Name "DT" can be linked to some of the same things as jtan's photo, except for the attack-dodging aspect.
BuGzlToOnl + Show Spoiler + - Quote, photo, and public profile do not seem to fit any mafia. - Voted for bwdero rather than nemy, so I'm not going in-depth into his profile attributes.
Lastly, I just noticed something odd. Here is the list of people who voted for nemy on Day 18: nemy - 7 jtan - strong Mr. Blue suspect hotzhot - strong Mr. Blonde suspect kf91 - weak link to Mr. Orange via "911"
infinity21 - killed on Day 19
siz.fantasy - killed on Day 19 ahrara_ - keeps calling himself mafia for some reason iNfuNdiBuLuM - about to by lynched
Not only are 4 of our top suspects (iNfuNdiBuLuM, jtan, hotzhot, and ahrara_) on this list, but the mafia did us a favour and killed two of the people who voted for nemy! I don't understand the logic in that. Maybe it was an oversight. Maybe they want us to think the remaining people aren't mafia because the mafia wouldn't be dumb enough to narrow our choices down like that. Or maybe they just want the game to end asap as well.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
ahrara_ + Show Spoiler +- No public profile. - Removed his photo. If anyone can find out what it used to be, then that would be great. (His word isn't good enough, obviously.) - Quote says he is from Afghanistan, which doesn't fit any of the mafia. - The only link I could find relating his name to the mafia is this: a WoW profile for Ahrara.Doomhammer. Apparently this guy is a level 60 Dwarf Hunter. Potentially this could fit Mr. Blonde, but it is a long stretch.
iNfuNdiBuLuM (edit: UPDATED) + Show Spoiler +
(Something to keep in mind here is that a LOT of things can be linked to Mr. Blue's killing methods. However, only jtan's photo is linked to other aspects of Mr. Blue's clues.)
To be honest, I'm not certain iNfuNdiBuLuM will turn up red. If he does then I'll really want to know how he is associated with the remaining mafia. Maybe he changed his photo a while ago so that he wouldn't be tied to any of them?
The next time someone makes a list like araav's, they should upload each profile photo to a separate website rather than linking to the pic on TLnet (or have both). That way, we can preserve players' original photos, and see when they've been changed.
To be honest, if I were to vote SOLELY based on Night clues, my votes would be: jtan strong link to Mr. Blue hotzhot strong link to Mr. Blonde (EDIT: iNfuNdiBuLuM now has a 100x better connection with Mr. Blonde) KF91 - weak link to Mr. Orange, but it's the only link to Mr. Orange that I can think of
The trouble is, we know 1/4 on the Showtime! list is mafia. CDRdude is the only one we can pin any Night clues on so far, however the clues that can be pinned on him are linked more strongly to jtan.
Then we see that iNfuNdiBuLuM is on the Showtime! list, and on the list of voters to elect randombum, and on the list of voters to lynch nemy. So despite having no Night clues pointing to him, he's still a likely mafioso.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Imo, the "wofl" in HotZhot's photo looks a loooot more like someone/something that would be fast and agile than the big-armed viking guy in infun's photo. Edit: I'm going to take another look at the Mr. Blonde clues, though, to see how well they fit a man who can fly.
Well, in either case, I'm sure we'll know who he was (if he turns up red) once Night 2000000000 comes to an end.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 19 2008 05:56 ydg wrote: I think infun will turn green, but eh. I'm glad you agree that Hotzhot is blonde. I suggest, after we figure out which of infun/cdr/jtan is mafia that we lynch hotzhot. Also, see my suggestion about lysithea. He also voted for nemy, though he was a tad late. Just read it. His name meaning "moon of Jupiter" doesn't fit well with the mafia, imo. Apparently Lysithea comes from Greek mythology, but I could find very little info on her.
HOWEVER, his quote, ["Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee." - Muhammad Ali], kind of describes the abilities of Mr. Blonde. I think HotZhot is a better candidate, but only by a small margin.
I agree that we need to look bigger-picture at Mr. Orange's theme. i.e. it's more than just cutting phone lines. Maybe something involving silence, as you said. I disagree with the "space" theme, though.
Edit: Mr. Orange's theme might involve locking people down so that they cannot escape or call for help.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Mr. Orange clues
Note: qrs missed a few of these in his post.
Day 3: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Dinmsab has just put away Mandalor's file and was reviewing the clues from the previous crime scene this evening when he heard something smack his window. He stood up to investigate and peered outside to see a man hurling matter at the side of his house from the ground. The man beckoned him to come out but after inspecting his window he promptly gave him the finger and instead went to call the police. But as he was dialing he noticed the phone line had been cut. Irritated he decided to confront the man outside and end his charades. Once he got to the bottom of the stairs though he noticed two other men sitting in wait on his couch. The man on the far side introduced himself as Enigma and the closer man bowed with his hat in hand and referred to himself as California Mountain Snake. Well Dinmsab was getting really impatient at this point and demanded an explanation for what was going on. Enigma stood up and proclaimed "why we're here to rid the world of good, because we're the only ones who can". Dinmsab realized he had walked into a mafia trap, and the footsteps behind him confirmed this. Mr. Orange came down with a pair of wire clippers in hand and bashed Dinmsab on the back with them. Dinmsab used the momentum to dive forward instead of fall and regained his balance after a roll, he was standing right beside his garage door and took the opportunity to escape by going out it. [...]
Day 5: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +The majority of the people who left the building made their way towards the rest of the mafia. Meta had saw them and was running towards Mr. Orange and Black Mamba. "Why aren't you calling for help" asked Meta as he reached them. Mr. Orange shrugged and shot him in the leg. Meta fell to the ground and started screaming for help. Black Mamba was a bit alarmed and tried to quiet the man, permanently, but ended up just bruising his face from stomping his foot around. Mr. Orange finally put an end to his bellows and shot Meta in the head, ending his life.
Day 7: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window. He went over to investigate and Mr. Orange jumped right through it and almost knocked useLess down as he flew past him. He quickly turned around and had useLess in a headlock. useLess struggled to free him self and stabbed at Mr. Orange with shards of glass. Mr. Orange broke off and flinched in pain. He grabbed a few shards of glass himself and stabbed through useLess's arms with them. Then to finish him off he made long gashes into useLess and left him to bleed to death.
Day 9: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +There was no plan. Five mafia set out tonight to get revenge for those they had lost. MTF was cruising along looking for a friend he had to give a ride home for. What he found was not normal to his eyes. Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms. MTF screeched to a stop and got out to help the man but it was too late and blood gushed all over the sidewalk as ~OpZ~ was literally disarmed. He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car. MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off.
Day 10: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had the help of Eddie as he went after Vharox. They were following behind Vharox as he was leaving a bar late at night. Once Vharox got his door open Eddie came from behind and grabbed him in restraint. Mr. Orange smashed an empty beer bottle over Vharox's head and it shattered into pieces and made Vharox flinch back in pain. He broke free of Eddie and charged into Mr. Orange knocking him on his side. Eddie tried to restrain Vharox again but had no luck as he fought him back. Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon. He stabbed Vharox in the arm with the beer bottle and then again in the chest. Vharox fell to the ground and Mr. Orange finished him off with a few more well placed stabs.
Day 13: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Losing two members that day the mafia decided to pull all the stops and hit the town where it mattered. They were through messing around and Mr. Orange, Eddie, and Mr. Blonde were about to prove that by taking out Fanatacist and Ace once and for all. Ace and Fanatacist were sitting at a desk going over detective files trying to find the remaining few mafia when the three barged into the room. Ace quickly grabbed the phone to call for backup but it was too late as Mr. Orange had landed a dagger right on the phone line cutting him off. Mr. Blonde shot across the room and grabbed all the notes dumping them into a trash bin nearby. He lit a match and set the whole thing on fire hoping this was the last copy the town had to go off. Mr. Orange, Mr. Blonde and Eddie all got out pistols and fired round after round at Ace and Fanatacist who were helpless to stop them. Eddie went up to Ace and he was terrified as Eddie finished him off but firing one last round into his head.
Day 16: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had just finished cutting off unsoundlogics house from the rest of the world when unsoundlogic came out the back door and spotted him. He ran back in and tried every phone in the house but they were all dead. Mr. Orange followed in and cornered unsoundlogic with a knife in hand. Maybe unsoundlogic didn't have anymore fight in him after surviving so many attempts, maybe he felt he was no match, but in the end he put up no fight and just let Mr. Orange stab him down.
Day 17: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange always thought out odd ways of killing his targets, attempting to stray from the dullness of his associates. And he planned on acting on this now stronger than ever desire by attempting to kill his target with fireworks. Scorch seemed the best for this opportunity he thought, so he set about waterproofing several rather potent explosives for the job. Once his target was sleeping Mr. Orange made his move, he injected a sedative to keep Scorch asleep while he worked on fireworks into every possible orifice of Scorch's body. Unrolling the long fuse he drug the body in the middle of the street, lit it, and like a little kid ran off to safety to watch in awe. Scorch's body was practically paper at the mercy of these overzealous fireworks as they tore him apart from several points. Many people missed out on a great show.
Day 18: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Blonde. Blue. Orange. Cottonmouth. These names rang through the heads of every towns person. Many frantically tried to connect them with individuals within their community, many tried to connect them with neighbors. The names conveyed themes. One was a theme of panic. One of haste and arrogance. One of determination and humor. And one of a hidden agenda. Though the town had been making great progress in evicting the mafia from their once peaceful and flourishing town this evening they felt a sharp fear of pain with uncertainty of the remaining criminals.
Within the first couple hours of the night the mafia had all made their move. Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin. Pangolin suffocated in his sleep with no chance to even cry for help. And finally ZBiR had taken a sharp dive down a cliff which he never recalled scaling into the ground.
Day 20: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange wanted to be a little more cautious but since Mr. Blonde had awoken the neighborhood to his presence he had to act quickly. He made sure all forms of escape were closed off as he made his way to his victim for the night. MasterOfChaos was at his window peering outward when Mr. Orange entered in the room. MasterOfChaos turned quickly around to see Mr. Orange right before he quickly unloaded several rounds into MasterOfChaos's body.
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Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Mr. Orange, continued
Mr. Orange's theme of the person being unable to call for help is the most prominent. In addition to phone lines being cut, preventing people from calling the police or calling for help, on Day 5 Meta says "Why aren't you calling for help?" and on Day 18 Pangolin had "no chance to even cry for help".
However, on some days (7, 9, 10, 17, and 20) this theme is entirely absent. These will be the decisive days. Matching the calling-for-help clues to someone is good, but matching the clues on the other days to them will be the final nails in the coffin.
As a start, I'll have to contradict myself when I cited one of Plexa's guidelines, but since KF91's name doesn't give much useful material besides "911", perhaps Chuiu made an exception and generated a couple of clues from his quote as well. KF91's quote is "That was weird... O.o"
On Day 17, Mr. Orange decided to use an "odd" way to kill Scorch (the fireworks). And on Day 7, useLess "heard a strange sound". These can be linked to KF91's quote.
This leaves Day[9], Day 10, and Day 20 to be linked to KF91, since all the calling-for-help clues can be linked to his name being similar to "911", the number you'd dial to call for help. If we can just link KF91 to the clues on these days, then I will be confident that he is Mr. Orange.
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