INnoVation, Super, jjakji, soO

by CosmicSpiral

Acer.INnoVation’s reign of terror could not last forever. Despite the praise over his precise play and ability to make the top players in the world look like chumps, Innovation’s best qualities were closely tied to his greatest weaknesses. As a player, he was uniquely able to take advantage of an overall stagnant metagame where his clean playstyle emphasizing strategic execution could shine. He became famous for his relentless TvZ, a matchup where Zerg is pigeonholed into going muta/ling/bane if they want to contend in the lategame; in TvP he could overpower almost anyone with his brutal SCV pull timings backed by his phenomenal macro; he was all but unstoppable during the hellbat wars in TvT.

Yet he has looked increasingly mortal in the post-hellbat TvT era and suffered several humiliating defeats on the biggest stages. Bomber, Maru, Taeja and Supernova all have decisive victories over him within the last two months while MMA, Heart, Ryung, sC, and even Startale's Panic (who?) have made him look like the inferior opponent at various points. Throw in failures against Zest and Curious in the IEM qualifier and it appears like Innovation is in a slight slump.

Emphasis on “appears”. As it stands, he is still the overwhelming favorite in the group. Despite recent disappointments Innovation remains a top 3 Terran with some very specific issues in the mirror matchup. No one has truly forced him to play a different style in his TvZ or TvP so expect to see more of the same if he manages to avoid jjakji. Instead he should take care to not be too predictable in his strategies. His TvP approach may have worked effectively against foreigners at Dreamhack, but Korean Protosses have caught onto it and devised several possible responses. Whether it’s fast HTs or continuous colossus production with preemptive engagements, Terrans who rely on SCV pulls are being rudely rebuffed. Innovation himself has experienced it in his GSTL game against Panic and will look to put on his poker face in his first match. Additionally the lone Zerg representative soO has gone for his fair share of baneling and roach busts in the past. This could work against someone like Innovation, who engineers his TvZ gameplan towards denying the fourth base and choking the Zerg into submission.

Is MVP.Super a fluke or the real deal? Getting first in his RO32 group was slightly surprising, but the intelligent way he tackled his matches suggests he can replicate that feat if necessary. Unlike most players coming into Code S after a long break, he didn't approach his matches as if he was the inferior player. Instead he relied on typical macro Protoss play combined with some adjustments to his tech transitions, and it resulted in some convincing victories against Bomber and soO. Admittedly Super had the advantage of facing very predictable opponents and it’s not likely that he’ll be faced with only SCV pulls or roach/hydra timings tonight. However, there’s a great chance that he will face similar strategies against most of the players in his group. Innovation rarely tackles TvP lategame without consolidating some type of huge advantage in the midgame while soO’s roach/hydra attacks seem to be a staple of his ZvP style. jjakji is the only one who showcases a lot of variety and if Super has to play him, he may crumble against jjakji’s wide range of early timing attacks.

Speaking of SKT_soO, welcome back to the Ro16! Despite lacking notable achievements in HotS, our everyman Zerg continues to bring consistency to a SKT squad that really needs it (something something Parting PvZ). To make it into the Ro8 would be a great achievement for this overshadowed player and the stars could align if he gets the right matchups. soO’s ZvP was uncharacteristically rigid last round and didn’t reflect his command over both swarm host attrition style and muta/ling harassment. The biggest question is whether he can get out of the group while relying on his ZvT. He has only played six games of it since MLG Anaheim and the available information suggests he likes roach all-ins. Zerg all-ins in the matchups can have pretty variable results based on how the terran proceeds after factory, and their success rate largely depends on how greedy the Terran player gets with the timing of his third CC. It may work against Innovation, a player who likes his 3 base play, or jjakji depending on the map choice.

When I shook my magic 8 ball and asked whether mYi.jjakji would make it out of his group, the answer was “outlook not so good”. As it turns out magic 8 balls are garbage and I need to stop using them to dictate my dating life predict StarCraft 2 matches. jjakji should not be a favorite to get out but he certainly the most likely candidate to cause an upset. His usage of multilayered attacks makes him a dangerous adversary against the likes of Innovation and Super, two players who thrive on builds that set them up for the midgame. Innovation in particular has a history of struggling with fast TvT pushes that disrupt his careful plans. Super plays more defensively and has the benefit of MSC so jjakji will have to be a little more creative in cracking the former’s defense. For soO he must scout thoroughly and try to push the game as late as possible. soO is a very good macro player with little confidence in his macro builds, and he will likely attempt end the game before the bio-widow mine push becomes an option.

Predictions:

Innovation < Super
jjakji > soO
jjakji < Super
Innovation > soO
Innovation > jjakji

Innovation and Super advance.