WCS Europe Season 2 - Premier League

Ro32: Group G Preview
FoRGg, VortiX, Bunny, Grubby

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Youtube

by Premasiri

1. Mill.ForGG

There was a time in Wings of Liberty when the first place spot in a group with three foreigners and a Korean was a shoe-in for the Korean. While happily that’s no longer the case, I still have to give the edge (only by a small margin) to Millenium’s ForGG in tonight’s WCS Premier Group G.

In terms of how he matches up with the other players in the group, it’s his first match of the night that’s the toughest to decide. Despite the recent hellbat nerf, it still feels like Terran have the slight upper hand in the TvZ matchup. Despite having been a ZvT terror in the past, VortiX has fallen off more recently and is about half and half with the better Terrans in Europe. While I don’t expect it to be a whitewash, ForGG ought to have the upper hand in his first match.

Should ForGG meet Bunny in the winner’s match, he’d be the firm favourite to take that too. Bunny’s dire win rate in his mirror matchup, combined with both ForGG’s excellent TvT stats and the 2 - 0 trouncing he administered to Bunny last season mean ForGG will be a difficult obstacle to overcome for the Danish Terran. Should ForGG meet Grubby, again he looks to be the favourite. While the genial Dutch Protoss should have more fans backing him to win, Grubby has been struggling of late with his PvT, losing to the likes of Sound, TheStC, and qxc. So, all in all – it’s not that Forgg is a whole level above the playing field here – not at all. Rather, he just seems to have a slight advantage on paper in all three of his possible matches.

2. CW.Bunny

Yep, Bunny's TvT record in HotS truly is dire (pregnant women and those weak of heart should not click this link). Fortunately, his TvP and TvZ are both excellent – with one proviso. I hesitate to use the word “abuse” when talking about hellbats. However, the European scene has borne witness to a truly disgusting amount of hellbat openers and midgame compositions in all three Terran matchups, and Bunny certainly isn’t guilt-free on this count.

Assuming he’s been able to adapt to the most recent changes to hellbats, Bunny should still be fine in his two non-ForGG matches tonight. It will also be a good opportunity to prove some snooty writers wrong, since he has claimed we have unfairly portrayed him as an abuser of Hellbats in the past.

It’s certainly not impossible or even unlikely for either Grubby or Vortix to take a series off him tonight. Having somehow avoided both other players in broadcast matches since the release of HotS, it’s difficult to tell exactly how their styles will matchup against one another. However, with victories over both violet and Ret at HomeStory Cup 7 but a loss to TLO, the only thing Bunny should be overly concerned with in TvZ is VortiX's penchant for mixing in aggressive play.

3. mouz.VortiX

It’s not often you find yourself writing VortiX out of advancement in a European league. However, a group with two strong Terrans is no place for a Zerg on a losing streak vs. Terran to find himself. Additionally, VortiX has generally had trouble asserting himself in HotS the way he did in WoL, almost swapping spots with his brother Lucifron.

Against Grubby, VortiX is favoured and ought to be able to take a series. But one victory won’t carry him through, and it’s impossible for him to face the one Protoss in the group twice with the way the opening matches worked out this time around. With two Terrans in his group, I don’t really see a way for Vortix to advance if he has to play the full three possible matches to come out second. So, barring an unlikely victory against ForGG in his opening match, combined with a similarly unlikely victory for Grubby in HIS opening match, prospects for the Spanish Zerg seem dim.

4. Grubby

A fourth place prediction isn’t meant to be a write-off. Grubby’s probably one of the hardest working, best representatives of SC2 and esports the scene will see for a long time. Sadly, he still hasn’t hit his stride in Heart of the Swarm. A break-even record in PvT is unlikely to be enough to best Bunny in Grubby’s opening match of the night, especially after falling to both Terran hurdles put before him at MLG Spring – QXC and TheStC.

Bunny being the weaker of the two terrans in Group G, Grubby’s prospects look even less sound against the only Korean in the group. While he won both his PvZs at his most recent live event of MLG, I’d be remiss and guessing respectively to rate Vortix below either Hendralisk or Cham. Vortix’s 2:0 over Titan last month seems a perhaps fairer comparison to make, which again puts Grubby in a tough spot. The two have yet to meet in broadcast matches in Heart of the Swarm, so anything’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on Grubby besting Mouz’s newest zerg.

Predictions:

ForGG 2 - 1 Vortix
Bunny 2 - 1 Grubby
ForGG 2- 0 Bunny
Vortix 2 - 0 Grubby
Bunny 2 - 1 Vortix

ForGG and Bunny advance

Writers: Premasiri
Graphics: shiroiusagi
Banner photo: ESL
Editor: Waxangel.