Newbie Mini Mafia XXXVII

On February 14 2013 05:13 zarepath wrote:
It almost sounds like the mods constructed a specimen made of the parts of fallen mafia vets, designed and and brought back to life with a single purpose of winning this game of mafia.

On February 14 2013 10:17 Mocsta wrote:
(3) Your RB; town JK or scum RB?

On February 14 2013 11:22 Sevryn wrote:
alright so first holy shit at these Night kills I would imagine its a sk because of the vigi being one shots and there not being a great case on either of the people who died.
second I would like to point out some points of concern for me on corazon
1. He didnt vote for the person he claimed was the scummiest d1 instead voting for glurio with only two votes on glurio so it was still anybodys game as to who got lynched at the time he swapped his vote.
2.this part of his recent post seemed odd because a vote for me wasnt really a non vote seeing as I was the second closest person to being lynched.

On February 14 2013 11:34 Mocsta wrote:
TestSubject,

I read the logic over a few times; I think the options listed are valid.

ObviousOne is a candidate for SK.. but I need to hear somethings from you first

Can you please clarify:

If scum did not value ObviousOne; why would you target him? That part of the story needs to be complete for me.


As an aside, we know ObviousOne isnt JK, because the kill went through despite a "JK block"
Completely agree on the vig logic deduction.


Second question:
Lets say ObviousOne claims VT => (COULD be Nosy Neghbour, he is not self-aware)
What do we do; do we lynch ObviousOne?
If so, if he flips town; does that mean we lynch you next?

I want to believe your claim; but the umm.. amazingness of it all is making me shocked all over again. I cant handle this twice in 2hours.
Really need your answers on the above; and feedback from ObviousOne.

On February 14 2013 11:35 ObviousOne wrote:
Well, fuck. There goes my shot at staying null.

I am Pops the Doorman and the Vigilante.

I shot WaveofShadow. I thought he was scum. I couldn't get a good read on him based on D1 and I felt it would give me insight into his back-and-forth with Corazon and thus more information about Corazon. Haven't looked yet at Corazon in light of the flip but now that it's out, you know where I was going with it and why I mentioned it earlier.

I don't believe in breadcrumbs (as you can see in the case of Zarepath, they aren't exactly invisible) and from what I've read/experienced in normal games, breadcrumbs are a good way to get yourself killed with a power role.

I also didn't want to give scum a chance at finding a confirmed town for tomorrow so I just kept quiet.

On February 14 2013 13:34 ObviousOne wrote:
I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.

The rebels shall bow before the power of this fully armed and operational battlestation.

On February 14 2013 13:49 cDgCorazon wrote:



Are you fucking kidding me...


+ Show Spoiler +

On February 14 2013 13:51 cDgCorazon wrote:
Just so I can be the first one to point it out...

On February 14 2013 23:14 zarepath wrote:


I don't see how my case prevented consolidated votes; the foremost problem was the lack of a clear, compelling case from ANYONE. I can hardly take responsibility for everyone else's lack of strong cases. I can certainly take responsibility for my last-minute Mocsta vote based mostly on the fact that I didn't feel that strongly about any of the other candidates.

I gave up the shenanigans because I determined that in the long run it would do more harm than good, and that we needed several hours of clarity in order to put forth a good lynch. Honestly, a clear lynch target didn't come out of my fake case. I'm curious to see how Obvious flips tonight, because he visited Wave, and if he were mafia I think that people who completely ignored my case look scummier (they saw the DT claim and decided to kill him at night, although there's no nominal DT).

I was looking for two things -- people who liked my case and would agree with it but not actually do anything, and those who do not really process it or look at it critically. Those would be people who knew that person was town but didn't mind them dying and want to take credit for discussion/participation (ie, scum). This is why Warbaby, Sylencia, and Mandalor have all looked scummy to me. Warbaby immediately latched onto the case with no analysis, it was the first case Syl said anything about at all and he pretty much entirely agreed while adding a minor point to it, and Mandalor did something similar.

Mocsta, actually, first said "quite a few good points in that case," calling some educated assumptions and others anti-town, but not explaining which ones. In the end, he does do an analysis of Wave's defense as opposed to Warbaby's defense and concludes that Wave actually looks town in comparison to Warbaby. This is at a point when the fake lynch still hasn't taken off, it's sitting at 2 votes (myself and geript). So this makes your reaction to my fake case less scummy than that of Warbaby, Sylencia, and Mandalor, imo.

Sn0 "liked the case" but didn't want to lynch an active player D1, but then really disliked his defense. He wasn't super eager to go after him at first, so I didn't see that as scummy. Corazon liked specific parts of it but cautioned that the same points could be brought up against others. Geript is the one who actually broke down my case the most, and while in the end it led to him voting for Wave, he was obviously thinking critically, which led to my town read on him.

So while I could say that as a result of this tactic Warbaby, Sylencia, Mandalor, and Mocsta are three scum and 1 SK, that's obviously going too far. Sometimes town just says they like a case and don't think real hard about it. Perhaps a desperate Warbaby was just happy to see any case that wasn't on him, etc. But I still think that they are strikes against these people.

On February 15 2013 01:00 Sn0_Man wrote:
This whole SK situation is pretty awkward. Due to the lack of counter Vig claim by now, it is clear that we do have an SK. On the other hand, we can't prove that it is ObviousOne. If he were mafia, then there is NO WAY the real SK would claim.

Either way, OO is an anti-town role.

However, at this point his actions still make me think it likely that OO is the serial killer not somebody else. If that is true, then town can think about "manipulating" the SK. Because at this point, the SK wants to kill scum anyway (since killing too much town leaves him vulnerable to scum, who are more coordinated than town). So if we let the SK live on the premise that he will shoot scum, then it is good. However, a) I don't think OO knows who scum is any better than anybody else and b) given the roleblock happening, and assuming it is scum, they can roleblock the SK every night and still kill with impunity until they have lynch-control. Because the SK has veteran status (+1 night life), I'm guessing scum want to lynch him not shoot him.

So we arrive at a funny point where scum wish very much to lynch the SK rather than shoot him, yet I believe it is also in towns best interest to lynch him (because scum fairly clearly has the tools to shut down the SK, and because I'm not convinced the SK will be able/willing to hit scum anyway). As previously mentioned, I don't really see how town can "Control" the SK since our votes are so awful. I mean, if we all ask the SK to NK a different person, he can do whatever he wants to right?

Another point of interest: If you read how C9++ setups are rolled, there can be either 2 OR 3 mafia associated with a 13 player SK game. While I'm aware that this setup is obviously not C9++, I'm assuming the balance would be similar. An interesting note is that I'm guessing the power level of our blue roles is lower than that of those in C9++, which would lead me to believe that a more accurate balance would be 2 scum not 3. This is just speculation.

I will point out that if there are only 2 mafia, I expect that they can guess that there is an SK. In that situation, it might be valuable to look and see if anybody "jumped" to the serial killer conclusion (aka already knew).

Long post, but TL:DR; My vote stays.

On February 15 2013 03:20 warbaby wrote:
I'm not quite done talking about the TestSubject/ObviousOne situation. Right now I believe TS's claim, but I'm not sure about OO's SK claim. A few scenarios I don't think we can rule out (although it's very tenuous logic):

1) Both TS and OO are scum, TS is bussing OO in a very elaborate way. OO is not SK, so we still have to deal with 2 night kills after OO flips scum. This seems very unlikely, but would be a huge problem for town.
2) TS is Watcher and OO is scum. OO is trying to save his ass, and anybody giving credence to his SK cooperation offer may be scum trying to help him survive longer. This is also a big problem for town because SK and 2 scum are still alive after OO dies.
3) Assume the game balance is currently 6:3:1 (town:scum:sk). If we lynch OO and he flips SK, this leaves the game balance at 6:3 (town:scum). D3 will be 5:3. If we mislynch D4, we'll be at 3:3 and lose. So if we commit to lynching OO as SK, we can't mislynch.

Thoughts on other stuff:

+ Show Spoiler [Some Mocsta Meta] +

+ Show Spoiler [Zarepath] +

+ Show Spoiler [Mandalor] +

On February 15 2013 04:06 Sn0_Man wrote:
The 2 replacements are going to get lynched and NK'ed and we are gonna end up in much the same situation as if they were modkilled rofl. (okay we have more info hopefully).

Either way, what now becomes interesting is what happens tomorrow. It will be EITHER 5-3 OR 6-2 depending on setup. However, we can't know which. This is a fascinating situation because I think it may actually call for a no-lynch. Or at least, I don't know yet who I wish to lynch and a No-lynch is remarkably reasonable. In the 5-3 case we go down to 4-3, which is extremely risky but hopefully town should be able to locate the scum in such a situation. In the 6-2 case we go down to 5-2, which isn't even MYLO so town then has a safe mislynch. While town won't know, it doesn't seem that unreasonable.

Keep in mind that in the 3-scum case, mislynch tomorrow is GG.