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Monday is preferable to me.
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This post is passive and is just here to give you guys some information about me.
I am reading through all the filters and will be making a real contributive post sometime soon. I haven't been keeping up with this thread as well as I ought to have. For some reason, I can't seem to access the voting link from my phone - I am trying to work out when the vote is due, but I will be submitting one in a few hours after reading and pondering, once I get back to my computer. I hope I am not missing a deadline because I really would not like to be modkilled so early on.
I am done traveling after today, so I will be properly active very shortly. Sorry for lurking and not contributing.
Again, sorry for the spam, hello and expect to start hearing from me.
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First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player.
As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later.
Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me.
Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way.
The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be.
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On September 05 2012 13:00 Hapahauli wrote: Why is he voting Mattchew if he's convinced he's an assassin? Hell that post doesn't really explain why he's even voting - "we essentially have to lynch him anyway" - wut?
This is my fault for wording this sentence poorly. Although I am still leaning towards Matt being an assassin, he certainly looks all kinds of scummy as well. There isn't enough information at this point to lynch someone else - this lynch will, at worst, be neutral. I feel that, unless someone who has better evidence against them comes up (unlikely) we are better off to make this lynch and gain the information (Matt's flip) than sit idle. I am just asserting that I personally think he is an assassin. I'm done on the whole Matt issue now; still working on making my posts more constructive and less parrot-y.
If Matt flips scum, Ottox and Toad really need to be looked at. Ottox has been making his bizarre crusade about the potential innocence of Matt, as everyone knows. To me, Toad's last few posts have seemed a little aimless and very personally aggressive with little content. He spends a considerable amount of time shutting down and pointing at Ottox (who is looking obviously scummy or very misguided) in a well written post, then shifts to personal attacks and negligent remarks.
Sleep time for me now; I'll actually have some rest by tomorrow and won't be travelling.
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I think Bill Murray is scum.
Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head.
This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing.
The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion).
+ Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot
Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him
Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other)
His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig.
Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time.
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On September 06 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. This is the worst case I've ever seen.
Typically, when one argues against another, a counter-argument has to be presented. Since it appears as though I am on some people's chopping blocks, some discussion could be useful. Just denouncing my case gets town no-where.
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On September 06 2012 10:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:26 Gravan wrote:On September 06 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote:On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. This is the worst case I've ever seen. Typically, when one argues against another, a counter-argument has to be presented. Since it appears as though I am on some people's chopping blocks, some discussion could be useful. Just denouncing my case gets town no-where. You chose a poor person to analyze. Bm is like chezinu and incredibly hard to pin down normally. You typically have to rely on things like scumslips to catch either of them or take look at the overall effort they put into a game. Now given that. You're analysis is very lacking, and looks like cherry picking. You don't include examples or even a link to his filter to prove your case. It seems rushed and made by someone backed into a corner. If you are town you should have no reason to feel rushed, you have plenty of time to post your thoughts.
First off, while I understand a player's meta is something to consider, I really have no idea what you are talking about with respect to how Bill plays or whoever this chezinu is.
I included at least three examples. See those quotes/spoilers? All of them include quotes from Bill Murray.
As to being rushed, well, I am just trying to not lurk. Apparently that is a bad thing to do - working on putting my thoughts out there and trying to stimulate discussion.
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Guys, stop humoring Otto. He is just trying to drag town down at this point; he isn't even trying to hide how anti-town he is. Stop replying, he'll get shot or we'll lynch him.
Next:
On September 06 2012 10:45 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:39 Gravan wrote:On September 06 2012 10:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 06 2012 10:26 Gravan wrote:On September 06 2012 10:18 Z-BosoN wrote:On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. This is the worst case I've ever seen. Typically, when one argues against another, a counter-argument has to be presented. Since it appears as though I am on some people's chopping blocks, some discussion could be useful. Just denouncing my case gets town no-where. You chose a poor person to analyze. Bm is like chezinu and incredibly hard to pin down normally. You typically have to rely on things like scumslips to catch either of them or take look at the overall effort they put into a game. Now given that. You're analysis is very lacking, and looks like cherry picking. You don't include examples or even a link to his filter to prove your case. It seems rushed and made by someone backed into a corner. If you are town you should have no reason to feel rushed, you have plenty of time to post your thoughts. First off, while I understand a player's meta is something to consider, I really have no idea what you are talking about with respect to how Bill plays or whoever this chezinu is. I included at least three examples. See those quotes/spoilers? All of them include quotes from Bill Murray. As to being rushed, well, I am just trying to not lurk. Apparently that is a bad thing to do - working on putting my thoughts out there and trying to stimulate discussion. Then actually hit the quote button on BM's posts. I should never have to enter a players filter to actually verify every post used as a reason against them when they are "quoted" in analysis. Any player who has played for years on this site (myself, drh, bm,) in this case for this game a giant amount of games for players to look at and compare our playstyles/meta's/trend our meta is changing. Not looking into this when making a case IMO looks badly on you as the person making the analysis. Knowing the players you are playing against if they are active and have a good set of history to compare to should be something everyone takes into consideration in cases. If someone has very few games behind them then yes, only gauging one game is fine given people change a f ton early on into their mafia career. Ignorance is not a defense imo. Making a quality post even if you only make like 4-5 a cycle isn't lurking if they are insanely solid posts. Its ones like your analysis that seem rushed to have an air of contribution that look bad.
I not truly claiming ignorance as a defense - I am just pointing out that I made the post without a full background check/years of experience. However weak my case may be, and however 'into his meta' Bill's posts are, I think my points still stand on their own two legs - he is trying to get me shot without arguing for it. I would like to hear Bill's response.
I am also interested to hear DrH's response to Hapa about his shifting views.
@Toad I think DYH explicitly mentioning his assumptions is a benefit towards his argument, not a detriment.
As a final note here, I am kinda on the same page as Rewok. I don't have much more to say without responses from Bill, DrH or without new info turning up after the night phase. Otto needs to be shot (to save us a lynch), and I don't have any suggestions for tracking/watching.
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On September 06 2012 23:53 imallinson wrote:I think the general consensus is that Ottox is scum and needs to get vig shot and I've said enough about him already so I'll leave that as is. On to who needs lynching tomorrow. I'm convinced at this point that Gravan needs lynching. His filter reads like textbook scum tactics. Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote:First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 13:30 Gravan wrote:On September 05 2012 13:00 Hapahauli wrote: Why is he voting Mattchew if he's convinced he's an assassin? Hell that post doesn't really explain why he's even voting - "we essentially have to lynch him anyway" - wut? This is my fault for wording this sentence poorly. Although I am still leaning towards Matt being an assassin, he certainly looks all kinds of scummy as well. There isn't enough information at this point to lynch someone else - this lynch will, at worst, be neutral. I feel that, unless someone who has better evidence against them comes up (unlikely) we are better off to make this lynch and gain the information (Matt's flip) than sit idle. I am just asserting that I personally think he is an assassin. I'm done on the whole Matt issue now; still working on making my posts more constructive and less parrot-y. If Matt flips scum, Ottox and Toad really need to be looked at. Ottox has been making his bizarre crusade about the potential innocence of Matt, as everyone knows. To me, Toad's last few posts have seemed a little aimless and very personally aggressive with little content. He spends a considerable amount of time shutting down and pointing at Ottox (who is looking obviously scummy or very misguided) in a well written post, then shifts to personal attacks and negligent remarks. His first post with any content is a soft defence of Matt. Along with Ottox this is meant to take town discussion away from anything useful and focussing it on whether Matt is assassin or scum. The second post is the same soft defence as the first but also starts trying to put Toad under the spotlight. The last part makes no sense because he thinks Toad is scummy for attacking Ottox who he also thinks is scum. The shift from well written to angry attacks isn't due to toad being scummy it's due to Ottox not listening to anybody. Once everyone piles on Ottox he backs away from this position while Ottox is taking the spotlight. When Matt is lynched and flips red there is no follow up to the previous posts. He avoids the subject entirely hoping it will slip under everyone's radar. Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 10:16 Gravan wrote:I think Bill Murray is scum. Also, Hapahauli, what is your read on Gravan? Scum or town? I don't want you using the word Null. Pick one. Scum or town? Consider yourself having a Gun to your head. This is the first time he mentions me. At this point, he hasn't put forward any kind of read on me at all. In addition, many of his posts up until this point (not to mention quite a few afterward) are pointless one-liners, or just generally non-contributing. The next thing he does is tell austin to read my filter as if I was scum (again, not argument put forward on his part - he is talking as if me being scum is a forgone conclusion). + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:18 austinmcc wrote: Show nested quote + Looking through his profile, I see his only other game was LIII. So he's at least played, although not with me. But he knows that some of the people in this game played that game, he played with them, he knows they are competent individuals with functioning brains.
It's the first time I've ever seen someone cling to something absolutely wrong in this manner. I have posted paranoid rants in two games, stuck by them for a while as possibilities, gotten upset if people wouldn't consider them as possibilities, but I didn't get like this.
Right now (and if Matt flips scum I will be more certain of the read) I can't help but read the whole thing like this: Matt got caught Ottoxlol tried to save him, without realizing how bad an idea it was Ottoxlol shortly realized how bad an idea it was A decent scum player told him right after he got caught looking very odd that he couldn't back off his defense, because then he'd look even scummier So he went full bore nuts, and that's why he won't listen to anyone or anything
It doesn't feel like he's just obtuse. At some point he'd get the message. It feels like he's clinging to this.
Do me a favor, and go read Gravan's filter as if he were a scum idiot Then he goes on to say that hap is on his scumlist for "coaching" me. + Show Spoiler +On September 06 2012 07:23 Hapahauli wrote: Show nested quote +
Null. Deal with it.
His posts/logic right now could come from either mafia or bad-townie. I don't have enough information to make a decision since hasn't posted much. Fortunately we have 48 hours to make a read on him.
yeah youre on my scum list so is gravan you openly coached him Afterwards, he includes doyouhas in this list. + Show Spoiler +filter On September 06 2012 07:27 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote +
I'd say Gravan looks real scummy right now. He attempted the same thing as Ottox, defending Matt by saying he was probably an assassin, but much more quietly and backed away as soon as he realised it was a bad idea. If anything that looks more scummy than Ottox at the moment.
THANK YOU. Go read Gravan's filter, and tell me if you don't find hapa coaching him? 2nd person I've caught him coaching that looks like scum with him (Doyouhas is the other) His next two posts that mention me go on to mention (offhandedly) the apparently obvious need to have me shot by a vig. Further, if you read his filter he is very non-comittal on the otto-defending-matt-and-generally-acting-scummy issue. His posts are passively worded and just softly agree with the flow of the thread at the time. At this point he has contributed very little and people are starting to notice. So he does what any scum would in that situation and makes a case. The problem is, and what makes the case seem really scummy, the case reads like it is there just to be there, to look like he is contributing. It seems to be entirely based on the fact that BM hasn't contributed much yet which Gravan is more guilty of himself. It reeks of OMGUS. The rest of his few posts are trying to defend this terrible case on BM and some vague mentions of being suspicious of DrH.
No where did I say Toad was scummy, I was just trying to focus the discussion elsewhere - at that time, everyone was going on and on about otto, which felt like a dead-horse topic to me.
I suppose I could have also talked about matt, and said something to the effect of "oops, I guess I was wrong". What do you want from me here?
I keep getting harped on for my 'terrible' case on Bill, but I still don't really see why he can aimlessly say I need to get shot and get away with it. From a scum perspective it makes sense to casually try to get townies killed by a vig/mislynch. But, from a townie perspective it makes sense to do what you are doing right now if you want someone to die; you make a reasoned case against them - pulling out all kinds of information in the process.
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On September 08 2012 16:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Unless someone claims a vig shot on GK, you're supposed to be dead right now. That was worse than Mattchew's claim.
I am not sure that someone could post something worse than Matt's claim . Although I agree with Hopeless here for the most part - unless BKE can really 'wow' me with a fleshed out argument/story about him being a watcher, his unexplained flip-floppiness is damning enough to compel me to vote for him.
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Another thought - Shady has been fairly quiet this game. All his posts indicate that he is reading the thread and keeping abreast of it himself, but his posts just kind of answer or ask questions. I am interested to hear if you have any reads, Shady?
Anyway, it might be worth it for everybody to take a peek at his short filter.
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EBWOP (is that the right acronym?):
Now that I have actually thought about it, I feel kinda foolish. BKE can't actually be a watcher, can he? GK suicide bombed on somebody - killing everyone who was watching/tracking/nosy neighbouring that player in the process.
Since otto was almost certainly vig'd, and BC was probably the target of the suicide bomb (being a veteran player) if BKE was watching BC he has to be dead too. Just thinking out loud here, since my above post agreeing with hopeless wasn't cleanly thought through.
And then, if DrH was the suicide bomber target, then BKE wouldn't have turned up GK when he 'watched him'.
Do I have this right?
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On September 09 2012 00:50 BroodKingEXE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 00:26 austinmcc wrote:On September 09 2012 00:21 Shady Sands wrote: Thanks.
Ergo, we have no way to verify BKE's claim... Right. Either he's a watcher OR he chose a fakeclaim so bad it could be disproven pretty much by flips alone. And it wasn't a pressure claim, he was getting called out all yesterday, then claimed while nobody was doing anything. I'm currently believing the claim since it seems like a giant risk to take when you're already down 2. Heck, why go with a terrible fake claim when you could name anything?
BM, where you at? We discussed scum having/not having some sort of leader earlier. I'd like to hear your updated thoughts. Ottoxlol flipped town, so it's not a case where mattchew/ottox/gravan all messed up and looked scummy D1. 2 vets died, so they're not options as some sort of mafia general, commanding the troops. Now we've got this BKE claim. Do you believe that claim? Are there players you could see saying, "hey you, go make a terrible fakeclaim that's so bad people will have trouble thinking it's from scum"? I don't see BKE, if scum, going that route, because you don't really gain anything compared to a better fake claim. I have to be honest, Im just laying it out. In XIII Newbie, I was One-Shot and didn't claim and everyone said I should've. I don't want to make the same mistake. I know me getting GK back is useless, but I need town to know what you guys will be lynching. Medic should not claim definetly(if we have one and they acted), else we both die. I picked BC primarily for the reason that Matt was his first pick and he was using the lynch to look around for other scum. He was speaking with really solid logic and had a few scum reads already. DrH was under a bit of fire, so I wasn't sure if scum was going to let that sit and develop. I didn't think Toad was active enough to be killed that night, but he had by then moved to my town list due to his response to my case. Just to make it clear I think Shady and Mav are scum
I would actually like to hear what you suspect happened on N1 - who did what, from your point of view. What was the scenario?
Also, unless I am missing it, did you actually make any kind of case against Shady?
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I still have reservations about this switch. According to what I can gather from this thread, Grush always acts like an idiot. This gets him mislynched often. We're lynching him, instead of BKE (who, until his meager roleclaim and sudden throwing out of cases) was under intense suspicion and getting wagon'd.
So far as I can tell, the logic goes roughly as follows:
BKE is very suspicious, but his blue claim isn't out of the question. Lynching a blue would be very detrimental to the town.
Grush is suspicious (alternatively idiotic and anti-town, depending on who is talking) and non-contributive besides. Lynching Grush is, at worse, a mislynch (we won't miss his discussions as a townie) and at best a mafia lynch.
This is all just a little sudden for me. What happened to those strong suspicions regarding BKE's earlier flip-flopping? Can one of you vote-switchers explain to me how that behaviour is now negated/lessened because of his role-claim?
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I still want to hear BKE's best guess at what happened on N1, regardless any suspicion against him.
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On September 09 2012 01:58 BroodKingEXE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 01:54 Gravan wrote: I still want to hear BKE's best guess at what happened on N1, regardless any suspicion against him. Could I hold up on that? Im asking Palmar a question about N1.
I can wait. My vote has yet to be swayed by the subsequent posting - it will stay as it stands until you get to your implied post.
What rule did you break? What was that post about?
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Okay, reader:
You're about to be lynched. The deadline is closing in. You're previous few posts have not convinced the players of the game to sway their votes - the wagon is gaining momentum. What do you do?
On September 09 2012 03:56 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Austin Your case looks good except for the smiles. They seem more like a mockery of GKs original smile.
##Unvote ##Vote: Z-Boson
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I am really just putting this out there because I still want to hear a nice clear explanation of things from BKE. I feel as though, if he were a blue, he could be protected by a doctor or at least commit to his role-claim a bit more. As it is, his behavior seems to have become more shifty and dodgy to me in the last few posts - I don't get the impression that he really is what he claims to be.
Also:
On September 09 2012 04:01 Forumite wrote: Caught up. Still think scum held a killpower in order to get another night to find blues before they need to worry about the blues finding them.
I like the lynch we have and am keeping my vote on BKE, he´s too quiet for a player up for the lynch.
I have a read as "useless troll that needs to die" on grush. Seriously, what was that 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 song about?
Did you consider the possibility of a doctor (or jailer) healing (or roleblocking) the other mafia KP?
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There is a lot of "in this game x player played like this" or, "y is a veteran, therefore the following is probable...". While I think these are fine as supporting arguments (since past tendencies/experience are relevant things to consider) I feel like all this talk of veterans and meta play is clouding and overtaking what people have actually said and how people have actually been playing.
It could be a mafia tactic to draw away from the discussion, or it could just be a little too much focus on outside/less relevant factors, but either way I encourage everyone to focus more on filters from this game and less on filters from other games.
Also:
On September 10 2012 02:56 strongandbig wrote:##vote: toad for mayorNo but actually, you bring up a very good point. I played in WoF and Forumite this game does remind me of his play from that game. That said, I think austin's case on z-boson is pretty good as well - he's hedging a lot, and his reasoning around the BKE vote really doesn't make much sense. So toad and austin, since both of you are pretty decent players and regardless of your own alignments are gonna be pretty good at mafia logic, what do you make of each others' cases? One last thing - I don't have all that much time so I was looking through some shorter filters. What do people think of hopeless1der? His filter can be described as - kind of a scummy waffle around the mattchew lynch - tunneling forumite Now, on the one hand I think forumite is a decent scum candidate; but seriously I don't think hopeless has talked about anything else for more than one or two lines. This is a contradiction for me from past games, where hopeless's filter has looked well-thought-out and where it's easy to get a town read on him. Also I feel like there might be a contradiction here: Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 06:18 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 05 2012 06:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 05:57 Bill Murray wrote:On September 04 2012 09:36 Forumite wrote:On September 04 2012 09:12 Mattchew wrote: I am a nosy neighbor. Anyone else with this role should insta-claim as well.
The reason people policy lynch people like BM and Grush is because they get by into later in the game because they are unreadable. This is because they barely actually play the game and if you end up in lylo with one of them left, you've basically already lost. I completely understand anyone wanting to policy lynch them, but we should also not allow them to be off the hook for some sort of scum read during the day.
That being said, I remember thinking to myself that I don't hate BM's play in the last few games I have been in with him. I do not want to policy lynch today.
Why would you claim this? You eliminated yourself as a possible blue from scums list of townies, and it´s not like you doing this eliminates you as a scum suspect. If someone see you visiting a player who dies the we´re lynching you anyway. check this scummy post from forumite 1) misreads the setup 2) attacks him with a smirk for the claim, which looks scummy as shit 3) takes the visiting thing a step further, saying "if they die" which clears a ton of scum roles... forumite is scum with a role FoS: Forumite Only real issue I have with this is that he didn't misread the setup to my knowledge. The setup was completely ambiguous on the Nosy Neighbor and required a mod to come in and clarify the situation. Aside from that I do get how you made the connections you did although he doesn't neccesarily have a scum role as my understanding of the setup would be mafia choose who makes a night KP given that no mafia can be responsible for more than 1 shot according to that mafia KP change. Thus any "non visiting mafia" would be "cleared" from suspicion. A mafia with a role can both use his action and take a shot. As an example, the mafia Vig can 'visit' and shoot two different players in the same night. I don't follow how the Scum KP mechanics make it unlikely that Forumite (or any potential scum) would NOT have a role, or for example, how a goon who stays home is cleared. Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 16:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Unless someone claims a vig shot on GK, you're supposed to be dead right now. That was worse than Mattchew's claim. insta-reaction was to throw water on bke's claim, even though he already knew a scum with a role could also deliver a factional kp. Now, I also didn't believe bke's claim, but it's not just that he didn't believe it - he discounted it with a reason that he already knew wasn't airtight. Not sure how bad of a contradiction that is but I think it is a contradiction.
I do get the feeling (as I implied/made light of earlier) that Hopeless' claim was a little too absolute. I would like to hear a little more of Hopeless so that I can get a bit more of a read on him - especially since his favourite target (forumite) is in the spotlight/sights right now.
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At this point, my viewpoint is as follows (on the big topics):
Bill Murray is still suspicious, but, really, who the fuck knows? Z-Boson is highly suspicious.
Forumite is highly suspicious, and very shifty. For somebody who is posting somewhat regularily, he hasn't done too much to defend himself other than point as many fingers as he can as quickly as he can - something that seems really scummy.
I wish we had another day to talk about this, heh.
##Vote Forumite.
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