A Game of Thrones Mafia

Oh, here come the random lynchers again From my experience in SC2 Mafia, random lynchers were usually Mafia (trying to get townies killed) or trolls. However, since I guess the skill level here is a bit higher, you might be just trying to reveal Mafia players by forcing them on the defensive. In any case: if my previous experiences have any value, chaoser and risk.nuke have a higher chance of being Mafia than town.

On March 21 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote:
Ah, damn it... No editing! However, I just thought that since you HAVE to vote every day, it might not be such a bad idea to throw random votes early. In my previous Mafia games it was common not to lynch anyone on the first day, and wait for clues on the second day. When people random lynched on the first day, it usually just meant an easier win for the Mafia.

But with these rules, I don't think chaoser and risk.nuke are necessarily Mafia - it's very possible they are just aggressive town players (or trolls). risk.nuke's post at least seems more like a troll than a real accusation.

Hmm.. Maybe I should also random vote. Several people are still lurking, so it would seem sensible to put the pressure on them Too bad Petyr is such a mystery, but seems like Mafia is the only possible target at this point.

On March 22 2012 02:16 Xatalos wrote:


We don't know his win condition, and we can't do anything to him, so I guess it would be best just to completely ignore him? The more he trolls the game, the easier time Mafia will have. The less of a presence he has, the easier it will be for town!

The more I think about it, the first reaction of Acrofales is pretty suspicious... If there is no better candidate, he might be a good target. However, he could also have been just upset by the random votes as a beginner. But the reaction was a bit... strong, for a townie...?

I didn't choose you for your player history or anything, gumshoe! In fact, I didn't even look at your profile I just dislike people who lurk and say nothing, and you were the first lurker I saw when I looked for lurkers - but you were just offline, so it's not really suspicious.

I wonder if we should continue with the random votes...? It seems a bit counter-intuitive to me, but it seems to produce a lot of good data (reactions from the targets, and even other players!).

On March 22 2012 02:28 Xatalos wrote:


Any kind of information is good (this is a game of information, after all ) - such as information that increases or decreases the chances of someone being Mafia. There can never be 100% certainty, but since we have to vote every day, we will have to go by probabilities, and without information there can be no probabilities. We have already gathered a lot of info, but many (half?) of the players have talked next to nothing. Even if we lynched Acrofales as a "somewhat likely" Mafia, we would still want to gather more reactions before Saturday.

On March 22 2012 04:54 Xatalos wrote:
Damn it...

##Unvote
##Vote Nicolas

On March 30 2012 03:29 Xatalos wrote:
Okay... It looks like this day was a real mess (as well as day 2 to a lesser degree) so I hope day 4 will be the day where Mafia are finally figured out. I'm not still 100% confident on my own Mafia reads, but I'll post all my opinions and findings now, in case I get killed at the deadline.

I'll go through every player with my opinions/notes as well as a verdict: good/medium/bad lynch. Good lynch: I'll vote for one of these if possible. Medium lynch: I'll vote for one of these if necessary not to get a bad lynch lynched. Bad lynch: I won't vote for one of these - I can't see them being Mafia.

gumshoe: He's been my top lynch for a long time, but I don't think he's the best lynch anymore at this point. First of all, he has been inactive for a long time, so he'll probably get modkilled soon anyway. Second, as some others said before, his careless and bold posts don't fit the Mafia mindset very well. Very possibly he's just a noob who spoke what came to his mind, no matter how possibly suspicious. Verdict: Medium lynch.

Zealos: Apparently some think he's suspicious, but I don't really see it. He's been very active, contributing and created a pro-town atmosphere. Unless I see something damning from him, I'm not willing to vote for him. Verdict: Bad lynch.

Mattchew: I really didn't like his confusing and disruptive way to play on day 1, but in the end, he's been generating a lot of useful discussion. Also, I can't believe Mafia (Acrofales) would have focused so hard on getting a fellow Mafia player lynched... I'm not willing to vote for him anymore. Verdict: Bad lynch.

risk.nuke: I was a bit suspicious of him after his first posts, but his later posts have been a lot more contributive. I'm not sold on either his innocence or guiltiness yet. Verdict: Medium lynch.

Jitsu: OriginalName was a lurker, but Jitsu has contributed quite a bit after he took over. I haven't seen anything suspicious about him yet... Verdict: Bad lynch.

Alderan: He hasn't contributed very much, but isn't really a lurker either. Not a very bad lynch choice, but not among the best. Verdict: Medium lynch.

chaoser: Clearly has experience in playing, but hasn't contributed much, disregarding some of the more trivial discussion. A semi-lurker who doesn't look very pro-town, but not anti-town either. Verdict: Medium lynch.

Lyter: Has contributed little and posted seldom. Something feels off, but not a top lynch yet. Verdict: Medium lynch.

GreYMisT: Also an experienced player, but hasn't contributed much or often. Was the runner-up in day 1 lynch, but wasn't voted by even a single Mafia player. Both him and chaoser haven't done much to help town, but GreYMisT feels more suspicious to me. Verdict: Good lynch.

sinensis: Doesn't look very interested in adding to the discussion, voting without much explanation or contribution. Apparently suspects evantrees mainly, but doesn't push his lynch other than voting for him. Verdict: Medium lynch.

evantrees: A hardcore lurker without real contribution. Certainly feels a bit suspicious, but could also be a disinterested townie. Verdict: Medium lynch.

So, I'll probably be voting for GreYMisT tomorrow if I can.