EPTInsane Mafia 2
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I skimmed over most of the thread and here are my thoughts so far: 1. There's no way I'll vote a guy that doesn't know what WIFOM means for mayer, sorry new guy. 2. Jackal was ok for mayor, unless he does the wrong tunneling thing he's sometimes prone to and wastes a blue/police day one. But the odds of that are quite small, so I'm sorta-fine with it. 3. GMarshal is a pretty transparent player, so he's a good choice as well, but the fact is he was wrong a huge number of times in XXXVII (I mean, he voted for the wrong person till the end), so while I like him (xoxo), I don't want him as the leader, yet.  4. Kav - I didn't even read the post I went straight to pictures. They were the same as 36 so I was like T_T. And he can't be claiming medic again since the roles aren't out yet. But yeah, I don't mind him as a mayor. Either him or Jackal were my top choices. 5. Chaoser - There's no freaking way I'd vote you for mayor after the huge "fuck you town" move you did in death factory. I'm not saying you're a bad player, but you need to learn to be pro-town even when town is attacking you. -.- 6. Annul - read OP moar! And then bum came and changed everything. He's obviously the best choice because: - if he wasn't blue, there would certainly be a counter-claim - if you're blue and nobody in your team is gonna counter-claim, you're retarded - IF there's gonna be a counter-claim, then we can just check supporters. Both of them should have 3 supporters minimum, so if we force everyone in their team to support them, then we will have not one but four confirmed scum/third party after one of them gets killed. So yeah, my vote goes to bummy. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
One blue to claim will be enough to throw crap on bum and people who support him. Sure, it might lead to lynching the blue or having him killed, but it will be a 1-1 trade with the black team (or reds, w/e) Think about it, Blacks are bullet-proof, they are only scared of being lynched. And you're saying that their plan is to stick their heads out and draw attention to themselves? Possibly putting themselves in a position to be lynched day one? Pleezee. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
It's always been a bad idea for scum to claim something first. You can't claim DT or getting shot when there's just 1 dt or 1 shot in the game, because you will be faced with counter-claims. So far, there's just one claim of blue. There are two scenarios: a) All REAL blues are asleep and will counter-claim later on. b) He is blue and the three other blue are keeping their mouth shut as they should. IF there's gonna be a counter claim, I assume there will be at least one more person supporting EITHER of them. So, whoever is lying (be it mafia or blacks), they will have to stick out at least TWO people (which can be up to four if we go there), in order to get an election. Would you risk that as scum/3rd party just for the mayor role? No. You don't put 2 people on the line on day one for no reason. And if we figure out who's lying (person with least supporters?), then one of them gets mayor'd, and the rest get medic protected or who knows. The point is, in the end, it's not a smart move for EITHER Black or Red to sacrifice people 1:1 (even if they get blues), because they're also fighting each other. So, unless you get counter-claims for blues, you can 99% sure assume that bum is town. If cops saw this but decided not to counter-claim, then either they have a good reason for it, OR they're being dumb. You seem to think that they are dumb, for some reason. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I'm getting bad vibes from Lemonwalrus though. One-lining his way through posts. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
...as soon as I get my medic role pm! | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I like that Tackster is being methodical about this, but I will say it right now, if there are no counter-claims, I'll be highly suspicious of anyone who keeps claiming that picking bum is a bad idea. In fact, it's such a GOOD idea I was actually going over the rules a few times to make sure there's no slip from the mod that would allow a confirmed townie to get picked as mayor. While I do admit that the blue team MIGHT be a bunch of afk-ers or too dumb to counter-claim (sorry, but it's true), you all must accept that that's a very small possibility. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
I'm pretty much impervious to flames and hate getting into grudge arguments so use logic or state your case but don't bother to emotionally manipulate me, i'll just take it as scummy. Shut up, you're ugly! | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On March 25 2011 05:42 Rean wrote: Did you even read his post? His worries are more Bum being red then black. He realizes that for black this'd be suicide. Oh right, and it's MUCH better for reds to lose 4 people, get left with 2 against 4 blacks who are bulletproof + town, assuming they would even be able to kill the four blues who will obviously be defended by medics. You're right, it MAKES MUCH MORE SENSE FOR RED! | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
1. There will be reveal on death 2. Mafia doesn't get to chose GF 'till night 1 (that's how it usually goes, it might differ in this game but I don't see anything regarding this in OP) 3. We are not blindly trusting his claim. We are basing our trust on the blues, hoping they have enough decency to counter-claim if he's lying. What's so freaking hard to understand? | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
- the fact that you're in the item game doesn't mean you have to kill the other players there. It's already been said that town will start looking there, since there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black, so just be pro-town bro! - having a confirmed blue mayor is better than giving it to someone in the item game with a 33% chance of that someone being red/black Bodyguards are random, so it doesn't really matter who they're gonna be, but what matters is that we'll have a protected blue. So you're asking us to pick between: - protected blue, 100% confirmed unless counter-claims - 66% shot of giving it to scum, and having said scum protected against blacks (if he turns out red) I'll take the first one thanks. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:18 annul wrote: "since there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black" there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black in the entire game as well. "having a confirmed blue mayor is better than giving it to someone in the item game with a 33% chance of that someone being red/black" 1. i disagree with this premise on its face; 2. bum is NOT CONFIRMED. the lack of a counterclaim does not "confirm" him as a blue. it is much better to have a protected player in item game to get a 4/6 better chance at SIX abilities than to protect someone who MIGHT be a blue and who might have ONE ability worth saving. i am thinking long term (as in, day 5 and beyond) and you are stuck in day 1. think big. this will be a very long game. The lack of a counter-claim DOES confirm him as blue. If things stay that way 'till the end of day one, then he is blue. If "other" blues exist but decide not to counter-claim, the game is pretty much lost anyway. So no, it's protect someone who WILL be blue and a decent scumhunter. Decent scumhunting > one ability. Think big. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:22 annul wrote: also, "- 66% shot of giving it to scum, and having said scum protected against blacks (if he turns out red)" no. its 33% to give to scum; 16.6% chance to give to the black player which changes NOTHING in terms of his ability to win item game. the worst-case scenario is to give mayor to the red in item game, since that means black's optimal strat (to night kill the red) cant work. therefore, since it's really only a 1/6 chance of making a bad decision (mayor to red in item game), 1/6 chance to not really affect anything (relative to item game), and 4/6 to completely negate black's inherent advantage and possibly win us SIX (!!!!!!!!) new abilities to use as a team... why are you resisting against this? Are you saying that if black ends up with an item or more, they will have 0 chances of using them against town? Seriously? | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
Again, it's a long game, I don't want to end up with a non-town mayor. Either way, I'll stop arguing about this until tomorrow. Maybe someone will counter-claim and all will be in vain. If nobody does, I'll pick the 100% over 95% anyday. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:26 annul wrote: "The lack of a counter-claim DOES confirm him as blue. If things stay that way 'till the end of day one, then he is blue." imagine this scenario: 1. hatter 2. multi-shot vig 3. mass medic 4. jack would any of these 4 give themselves up in a trade 1:1 to take out ONE scum? of course not. each strong empowered player needs to use their abilities to take out MULTIPLE scum. in this game, for all intents and purposes, it's 10 scum vs 20 nonscum. that is 33% scum when standard play is 20% scum. 1:1 trades are no good here. The jack/hatter could easily both claim and ask for a kill of the other person. One of them would be elected mayor, the other one could be medic protected for 3/4/5 nights. It's not giving yourself up. It's taking out one scum and claiming. There's a big difference. Especially when one of them ends up mayor = invulnerable to night hits for a while. It's not even a hard choice lol. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
100% > all! | ||
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