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War_Minister
Canada86 Posts
If all maps were perfectly balanced, we could expect a mirror match-up ratio close to 33%. I understand that maps cannot be perfectly balanced but, after doing a quick survey all of scheduled games in October, I found that exactly 50% of all games were mirror match-ups (13% PvP, 18% TvT and 19% ZvZ)! This seems very far from the 33% perfection… I just wonder (I ask to the most veteran fans among you), is this usual in the ProLeague or is October simply an unlucky month? | ||
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zulu_nation8
China26351 Posts
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lazz
Australia3119 Posts
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BanZu
United States3329 Posts
PvP TvT PvZ ZvT TvP 6 match-ups, half are mirrors. Is there something wrong with my logic? | ||
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Ideas
United States8094 Posts
you think 50% is bad? Just look at the SPL 08 season before they had the at least 1 of each race every match rule. | ||
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haxorz
United States138 Posts
On October 26 2009 08:34 BanZu wrote: ZvZ PvP TvT PvZ ZvT TvP 6 match-ups, half are mirrors. Is there something wrong with my logic? Other people have pointed out that it should actually be 1/3 mirror matches. This logic is only correct if we assume that coaches choose which race to send for a game at random (i.e., in the ideal case). Suppose a team's best players are Protosses (Khan!?!?!?!). Suppose another team's best players are Zergs. Their coaches will be more inclined to send their better players, so in this example a mirror match is less likely than 1/3. edit: clarified my point | ||
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huameng
United States1133 Posts
Or think of it this way: you pick any race. your opponent can pick any 3 races, and 1 of those 3 will be the same as yours. so 1/3 matchups are mirrors. | ||
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Deleted User 48059
86 Posts
ZvZ PvP TvT PvZ ZvT TvP ...you need to add ZvP PvT TvZ to that list (order matters; player A can play zerg, and player B terran, OR the other way round) Or, to put it a little differently: player A can be P, T or Z. Whatever player A's race is, there is a *1 in 3* chance that player B will be playing the same race. Hope that helps; I'm not the best at explaining things sometimes Kev edit: yah, I was too slow. stupid long post and slow typing... | ||
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ploy
United States416 Posts
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On October 26 2009 09:04 ploy wrote: Uh no thats not right. Order does not matter in this situation. Banzu is right - 50% of the matchups you can watch are mirrors, so it's to be expected that about 50% of the matchups that you see are mirrors. You're wrong. If a team sends out a zerg, it's a 33% chance the match will be mirror if the other team sends out a random player. Thus, mirror matches "should" occur 33% of the time. | ||
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hellokitty[hk]
United States1309 Posts
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
Could some people put in their heads a little bit of common sense... Player A, whatever race he plays, has 1/3 chance to play a mirror. You don't have to calculate any further. | ||
Hot_Bid
Braavos36374 Posts
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lone_hydra
Canada1460 Posts
Seriously, whoever wins, help me with my STAT 230 course T-T | ||
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haxorz
United States138 Posts
On October 26 2009 09:18 Nouar wrote: My god will there ever be a consensus about those statistics ? Could some people put in their heads a little bit of common sense... Player A, whatever race he plays, has 1/3 chance to play a mirror. You don't have to calculate any further. I just want to clarify for everyone - this is true in the ideal case (see my previous post). Of course, pro SC irl is NOT the ideal case. | ||
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cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
How were the statistics for the previous seasons anyway? | ||
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Arrian
United States889 Posts
On October 26 2009 09:37 Hot_Bid wrote: Maps are almost never balanced through all three non mirror matches, PvT TvZ PvZ. They are usually slanted toward two races or one race. All teams know this, so obviously there will be far more mirror matches because the teams know to send a Z on outsider and tornado, a T on match point, etc. Hot_Bid hit the nail on the head. The key word in the whole equation is random, and what race coaches choose to put on certain maps is demonstrably not random, for a slew of reasons. | ||
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Wilko
Germany470 Posts
On October 26 2009 08:40 weepingblades wrote: Yes. ZvZ PvP TvT PvZ ZvT TvP ...you need to add ZvP PvT TvZ to that list (order matters; player A can play zerg, and player B terran, OR the other way round) Or, to put it a little differently: player A can be P, T or Z. Whatever player A's race is, there is a *1 in 3* chance that player B will be playing the same race. Hope that helps; I'm not the best at explaining things sometimes Kev edit: yah, I was too slow. stupid long post and slow typing... Shouldn't mirrors also be counted twice? Like: T1 vs T2 T2 vs T1 Z1 vs Z2 Z2 vs Z1 P1 vs P2 P2 vs P1 | ||
Heyoka
Katowice25012 Posts
On October 26 2009 08:30 zulu_nation8 wrote: theres always been a lot of mirrors, dont know if October has had more than usual. Look at last year's proleague playoffs, almost every match was a mirror. Its been way more than usual. I have the actual numbers in the latest PL article, there have been twice as many mirrors so far this month as compared to last year's maps. | ||
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cascades
Singapore6122 Posts
On October 26 2009 13:47 Wilko wrote: Shouldn't mirrors also be counted twice? Like: T1 vs T2 T2 vs T1 Z1 vs Z2 Z2 vs Z1 P1 vs P2 P2 vs P1 Yes. So it is still 1 in 3. | ||
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