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On June 10 2010 09:45 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2010 08:14 Vivi57 wrote:
This should be fun.
Also, is lynching an inactive really best? We've done that since forever and people are so used to the strategy that I don't think it'll give us as much in the way of vote lists and voting patterns to analyze.
I say that we make everyone talk then analyze behavior and if someone appears scummy, we shouldn't insta go for the inactive. I think I agree with this. Usually I'm a champion of inactive lynching, but theoretically in this set up there should not be anyone blatantly inactive. I mean, the invites were sent out solely based on activity. If we're having a problem with activity, by all means, but for now lets try to analyze. Face the facts, mafia who try to coast by are lame, mafia who play hardcore are sweet. Like Incognito in Mafia XXII; that was well done.
Despite what I said earlier about being skeptical that people could be forced out of inactivity... we might be hard pressed to find a true inactive. In the short time that this game has been open, there's only 6 people that haven't posted.
6. Chezinu
7. citi.zen
8. Foolishness
10. RebirthOfLeGend
14. johnnyspazz
15. LuDwig-
And of these, I expect that they will show up soon.
If it continues like this, and we get tons of active people and lots of posts to analyze then it might very well be more advantageous to skip the inactive lynch.
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On June 10 2010 07:20 flamewheel wrote:
Hmm...
Semi-open setups are tricky, since we know what roles there can be but not the number. However, since there is a given number of mafia we should be able to roughly estimate what kind of blue powers (and/or extraneous mafia powers) there are in the game.
17 people and four mafia, so the mafia comprise 23.5% of the town's population. Normally in Incognito's games, the mafia comprise a flat 20% of the total population and blue roles are adjusted based on that, and given the fact that there are more varied roles than in these more 'standard' games, I'd assume we'd have some of those. Let's see...
Incognito likes Mad Hatters. I can't remember if that is his or Qatol's (perhaps both?) favourite role, but most likely there will be one Hatter.
Obviously, it'd be ludicrous to say that there isn't a medic, though the question is whether or not there's one medic or two. I'm split between the numbers, since either could work... A self-saving medic is way more powerful, and that would mean there would probably only be one medic. However, Incognito has ninja'ed in the fact that medics cannot save themselves, so two medics is probable.
Between the Watcher/Stalker and DT there's more likely to be a DT. Watchers and Stalkers are cute roles, and I'd count them as half a blue role. There'll probably be one of either.
There is a Veteran, most likely. Since it is a passive blue role, I'd count it as a half.
Because you can't have too many blue roles without balancing Mafia powers as well...
There will probably be a Mafia-aligned Day vigilante, and perhaps a town-aligned one. If there are two medics (or two of anything) I'd find it more likely that there'd be a roleblocker. Probably to throw off the DT, there will be one, at most but probably not, two Millers.
Of course, this is all conjectural based on how I would potentially balance a game.
Well, as far as I can see it, there's two possibilities. We probably have a single day-vig in the game based on how the role was described; Its put apart in a black format and given that the role counts are useless, I'd have expected a red/blue name instead.
If there is just one Dvig, then there's 3 possibilities:
1) Real SK type with alternate win goals. Highly unlikely given a single day shot.
2) Town controlled day vig, maybe 4 blues total besides the Dvig, medic, dt, watcher, vet/hatter.
3) Mafia controlled Dvig.
- If there's a roleblocker there are probably 7 blues. 1 of each type most likely.
- If there isn't, I'd guess 5-6.
Double medics in a 1 kp setup is absolutely ridiculous, have both claim early and have the watcher check them. You will have a 50% chance at finding the roleblocker. If a vet or hatter lied and stepped up to get blown up, even more ridiculously powerful. Gives DT and watchers 3 free checks. Given that if double medics are in play, I'd count them as 3 blues for the above totals.
So how do we abuse this information? Well, its simple, pimple. We can do this 2 ways.
1) Mass roleclaim asap because mafia need to spend 7 days shredding our blue totals. Unlike the prior game with 0 minute long days and 3 total kp/day (of which, the town kp was only marginally controlled), we now have full days and 2 kp total, which means this game will go until day 6 at the minimum. Medics obviously lie and vet/hatter claim DT/Watcher respectively so that mafia are 50% screened in their attempt at hitting any of our info roles. That way its pretty impossible to hit into our blues safely.
2) RANDOM BULLSHIT.
Given that 1) is a better plan, we'll probably end up having haters bring the hate because my name is a letter long and go with 2) under fears that a nearly impossible to lose game will crumble under the weight of "L is too dangerous to listen to". Your call.
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On June 10 2010 09:49 Korynne wrote:
What? Why does my only appearance all game have to smell bad? That's lame. xD
lol... well I'm sure it has nothing to do with your snide remarks about guys not having enough blood to use both of our heads 
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
L, correct me if I'm wrong but it says you are aligned with either Town or Mafia, not a third party.
Oh, just realized that Mafia KP was one (forgot about this, automatically assumed #/2 rounded up).
Which means yeah, only one medic.
I'm for roleclaiming since it's lulz.
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I'm for roleclaiming to but uh, who wants to start? lol
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On June 10 2010 09:55 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2010 09:45 Radfield wrote:On June 10 2010 08:14 Vivi57 wrote:
This should be fun.
Also, is lynching an inactive really best? We've done that since forever and people are so used to the strategy that I don't think it'll give us as much in the way of vote lists and voting patterns to analyze.
I say that we make everyone talk then analyze behavior and if someone appears scummy, we shouldn't insta go for the inactive. I think I agree with this. Usually I'm a champion of inactive lynching, but theoretically in this set up there should not be anyone blatantly inactive. I mean, the invites were sent out solely based on activity. If we're having a problem with activity, by all means, but for now lets try to analyze. Face the facts, mafia who try to coast by are lame, mafia who play hardcore are sweet. Like Incognito in Mafia XXII; that was well done. Despite what I said earlier about being skeptical that people could be forced out of inactivity... we might be hard pressed to find a true inactive. In the short time that this game has been open, there's only 6 people that haven't posted. 6. Chezinu 7. citi.zen 8. Foolishness 10. RebirthOfLeGend 14. johnnyspazz 15. LuDwig- And of these, I expect that they will show up soon. If it continues like this, and we get tons of active people and lots of posts to analyze then it might very well be more advantageous to skip the inactive lynch.
Being inactive doesn't just quantify people who don't post. There are people who will post nothing or go on generalities, and thus can still be considered non-contributers. Also if there are a ton of posts, a townsperson is just as likely (maybe more so) to slip up than a mafia member, though we'll see. Game's technically only 37 minutes old.
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It started already? Guess I have to order popcorn for this one. 
DO NOT KILL RADFIELD.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On June 10 2010 07:20 flamewheel wrote:
Between the Watcher/Stalker and DT there's more likely to be a DT. Watchers and Stalkers are cute roles, and I'd count them as half a blue role. There'll probably be one of either.
On June 10 2010 07:27 meeple wrote:
Hmm... now that I think more about it... since the watcher/tracker role is somewhat less powerful, its more likely we have another medic or detective thrown into the mix.
NOBODY CARES!
Seriously though, did either of you even bother to think this through? Seems to me it's like, "lulz watz this weird role? no wai it can be good as DT otherwise we'd use it more AM I RIGHT?!?"
Power to the DT!
On June 10 2010 10:06 L wrote:
Given that 1) is a better plan, we'll probably end up having haters bring the hate because my name is a letter long and go with 2) under fears that a nearly impossible to lose game will crumble under the weight of "L is too dangerous to listen to". Your call.
I'll totally go for this. Thanks for saving me the time of having to write that out 
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Haters gonna hate.
I understand.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
Well then, I like this plan. Let's put it into action.
On June 10 2010 10:36 ohN wrote:
I'm for roleclaiming to but uh, who wants to start? lol
Me.
Tracker.
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FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On June 10 2010 11:33 Foolishness wrote:
...
Seriously though, did either of you even bother to think this through? Seems to me it's like, "lulz watz this weird role? no wai it can be good as DT otherwise we'd use it more AM I RIGHT?!?"
Sure did! When did I say it was not as good as the DT?
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Townie.
I have no powerz. 
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On June 10 2010 11:58 flamewheel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2010 11:33 Foolishness wrote:
...
Seriously though, did either of you even bother to think this through? Seems to me it's like, "lulz watz this weird role? no wai it can be good as DT otherwise we'd use it more AM I RIGHT?!?" Sure did! When did I say it was not as good as the DT?
You said they were half a blue role remember? Or are DT's now half a blue role as well? Or maybe they are only a quarter? Does that mean medics are still a full blue role? Perhaps they are worth two thirds instead. A mad hatter must be a full blue role right? Incog sure loves mad hatters so there's probably one of those. Do I sound like Chezinu to you? I really didn't mean to start writing like him but things just kinda came out on their own. I guess the influence is rubbing off on me. Is it wrong for me to be slightly bothered that Darth listed me as one of the "cute" people?
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I am fine with the mass role-claiming suggestion. There are 4 vanilla townies here + miller so the mafia would not have a very easy time hiding among them. Claiming a blue role is very tricky for the reds since the rightful owner will know it.
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I'm a cutie
=[. Guess I'll stop.
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On June 10 2010 13:07 citi.zen wrote:
I am fine with the mass role-claiming suggestion. There are 4 vanilla townies here + miller so the mafia would not have a very easy time hiding among them. Claiming a blue role is very tricky for the reds since the rightful owner will know it.
Never mind, had not read this part:
There is a possibility that not all roles listed here will be used in the game.
I need to think about this more... it's not the no-brainer I initially thought it was. If there is a non-assigned blue role it would be perfect for the mafia to try to claim it late. And there would be more townies to "hide" the other mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +I'll be honest: I don't have a lot of time. I am nominally on vacation, but in reality at home with an 18 months old with bad separation anxiety (3rd night in a row puking before bed) and a newborn. My more active mafia games happen when I am at work :-)
That said, I hope if I make it into a late game situation I can make the right call. If not, so be it, at least I took a bullet for someone else!
Under the spoiler to save Foolishness his "nobody cares" sticker.
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anybody else getting sort of annoyed with the flamewheel spamming and whole "cutie" thing? i thought it was slightly intolerable in the rest of the forum but it's even more annoying in the mafia thread. please cut it out. if you don't have anything to contribute then stfu. is this a new thing because it's worse than L vs Ace bickering.
On June 10 2010 13:07 citi.zen wrote:
I am fine with the mass role-claiming suggestion. There are 4 vanilla townies here + miller so the mafia would not have a very easy time hiding among them. Claiming a blue role is very tricky for the reds since the rightful owner will know it. i guess we decided not to open with random accusations. citizen your statement here is irrelevant since there can be multiple identical blue roles. we just don't know how it'll play out. on the other hand, we could just as easily have 4 people claim the same role and spend 4 nights lynching each of them.
my only qualm with L's plan is that the structure of the game is forum based. that means posts come in linearly, one at a time and uneditable. what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? mafia gets an easy kill in the first round with our most valuable player. if you think about it, the likelihood of 2 medics being in this game is VERY low since it would essentially be GG once they figure each other out (mafia just can't do shit). even with a roleblocker, i doubt that Incognito would create such a town-favored setup.
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what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? Well, maybe try reading the plan before posting.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On June 10 2010 13:18 citi.zen wrote:
Under the spoiler to save Foolishness his "nobody cares" sticker.
<3
On June 10 2010 13:21 redtooth wrote:
i guess we decided not to open with random accusations. citizen your statement here is irrelevant since there can be multiple identical blue roles. we just don't know how it'll play out. on the other hand, we could just as easily have 4 people claim the same role and spend 4 nights lynching each of them.
my only qualm with L's plan is that the structure of the game is forum based. that means posts come in linearly, one at a time and uneditable. what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? mafia gets an easy kill in the first round with our most valuable player. if you think about it, the likelihood of 2 medics being in this game is VERY low since it would essentially be GG once they figure each other out (mafia just can't do shit). even with a roleblocker, i doubt that Incognito would create such a town-favored setup.
That being said, what do you think about the two people that have already roleclaimed? Outing yourself as the tracker which is probably the most powerful blue role this game seems like such a terrible idea right now. Of course he could be pulling a RoL and just be a townie trying to fool the mafia or get protection cause he's selfish. Or he could actually be another blue role trying for protection. He could be mafia, although I doubt he would post that fast without consent from his brothers first.
Or he could just be stupid.
On June 10 2010 12:08 ohN wrote:Townie.I have no powerz.
Along those lines I say we lynch this guy first.
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Outing yourself as the tracker which is probably the most powerful blue role this game seems like such a terrible idea right now. Unless he's a hatter or vet and is claiming as instructed.
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EPT
