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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:38 Mattchew wrote: Idk im too busy being upset about re-reading my case on storr and having to come to the realization that LA is right and i cant really defend it against him just being new... what? | ||
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
##unvote ##vote sn0_man | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
I also do not like how your reads are tugged near the end, spoiler tagged and definitely not the focus of your post. Again, based on my experience you are an outspoken player who pushes his reads. I'm not seeing this in your cases and in fact I do not know who you want to lynch. Finally, I'm skeptical that the list of "other suspicious people" is genuine. The list of names does not make sense to me, because they do not seem to stand out at all as suspicious and in fact some of them have looked towny. It's a weird mix of names. His reads differing from mine isn't an issue, but that specific list of names is. It's also strange that you note that you will make "small cases on" unless you change your read "strongly". Awkward and fake sounding phrasing. ##vote Cephiro I'm leaving in about an hour and will be gone for at least 3 hours. It's possible that I won't be back before the deadline, but I likely will be able to. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:44 Mattchew wrote: Yeah w.e i should have listened to everyone early last game too ##unvote ##vote sn0_man I am stunned by your submission | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:51 Palmar wrote: I also had cephiro as likely town. Why? Who is mafia then? | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:50 syllogism wrote: I don't think the big post by Cephiro makes him look any better. It looks something made out of obligation and the tone isn't what I expect from him based on the games I've played with him. He spends so much time on quite pointless defense. The activity and tone are the issue, not really whatever you are defending against in the post. Perhaps it would be more helpful in the context of your QT. I also do not like how your reads are tugged near the end, spoiler tagged and definitely not the focus of your post. Again, based on my experience you are an outspoken player who pushes his reads. I'm not seeing this in your cases and in fact I do not know who you want to lynch. Finally, I'm skeptical that the list of "other suspicious people" is genuine. The list of names does not make sense to me, because they do not seem to stand out at all as suspicious and in fact some of them have looked towny. It's a weird mix of names. His reads differing from mine isn't an issue, but that specific list of names is. It's also strange that you note that you will make "small cases on" unless you change your read "strongly". Awkward and fake sounding phrasing. ##vote Cephiro I'm leaving in about an hour and will be gone for at least 3 hours. It's possible that I won't be back before the deadline, but I likely will be able to. I approve of this message, I was too hasty to be swayed by the big post last night. According to rayn, Cephiro posted more in the QT but not in the thread after his one post. Further his one post doesn't actually push anyone for lynch. In his towngames he seems infinitely more involved than this. On October 18 2013 14:29 VayneAuthority wrote: There is one glaring contradiction he makes in the QT where he calls me "the most reasonable person in our house atm" but then I am a scumread in his post here...seems strange. This is also pretty concerning, and backs up syllogism's point about the list of names being weird. ##Vote: Cephiro | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
On October 18 2013 06:58 Cephiro wrote: + Show Spoiler + K-pop is better than sex and I could die happy if I got a cute, cheerful Korean waifu. Okay, so yeah. There have been all kinds of claims about me and my participation in the QT, some more close to the truth, and some intentionally painting me in the worst manner possible. I want to clear that up, but I'll try to keep it short. Basically, today morning I made a short post with random fluff about my own life as the most content, with two points that can be considered relevant.
Simply put, as someone that studies statistics, I ran quick calculations and the chances of mafia knowing in which house each player resides is as high as ~91%. I mistakenly worded this the wrong way around in the QT (due to not having slept), which I'm sure everyone in the QT understood. Long story short, in my opinion the chances of mafia already having that information were high enough to basically guarantee that, and if town has the same possibility of gaining that information, they should. There may be roles that become more or less powerful with this information revealed, but I do not expect it to be substantial enough for it to be hidden. And after I made my thoughts clear, the houses and their players are all revealed, so this is mostly meaningless. I wanted to share this so you would know what I had posted, in the name of honesty, and possibly giving someone ideas to go by. The "additional posts" after that were mainly me raging since I got pissed off at mostly rayn, the way my actions were shared to the thread. The reason I originally didn't also post that short snippet of information I did earlier was that I didn't consider it very important, as well as I wanted to start the game with a proper, contentful post that other players could actually find useful, rather than random sleepy-as-fuck-thoughts. Also I've noticed recently that a bad start seems to haunt you way too easily for the whole duration for the game, thus I didn't want to handicap myself to begin with. This however didn't end up happening due to the actions of other housemates of mine, so I will have to live with that and make the best out of this entry of mine. In my apology-post in the QT after I had raged before I went for a k-pop pause, I also had a very short speculation about the setup. To share it with everyone, I basically thought due to the reactions of several other people talking about their roles and the setup, and knowing mine, that the setup is most likely completely pre-arranged. (Note: These are assumptions.) Such as: Draco Malfoy is always in Slytherin. Or, Hermione Granger is always town. This is not something worth looking into in my opinion, I was merely posting my thoughts out. As for why I don't consider it important, if I hosted a game myself I'd make sure that any role could be any alignment, simply to avoid "meta-gaming the hosts", since I believe that defeats the purpose of the game. And I find it likely even if most of the setup was made in a traditional, true to flavor manner, some side character at least would have a twist. In any case, end of beginning rant. E: Re-checking what I remembered, the rules state the mafia has been randomly distributed, which would make this speculation useless, unless you consider the possibility that hosts are lying to keep the option open even if it wasn't for balance reasons. Now for the players. After reading through the thread again slowly with a k-pop calmed mind I have come to the following opinions and conclusions: Mattchew: + Show Spoiler + On October 17 2013 08:35 Mattchew wrote: a lot of soft accusations being thrown at Skanjab1s and dont we always have to lynch the self aware miller or is that some other weird role? Useless observation, then a lynch poke in form of a question like he's unsure about it? Doesn't follow through later. His whole thread contribution is nonexistant so far. What I see is a completely random jump in out of nowhere, to try and buddy yamato. He notices that though, and things go nowhere. On October 17 2013 10:52 Mattchew wrote: i didnt like this "lol", i thought it looked pretty weak Like really, what is the purpose of posts like this? What I find interesting is that he follows up with a "long" post where he responds to each accusation made against him... incredibly poorly. It doesn't even look like a defense to any extent. At the moment I'm leaning scum mostly since I'd expect more of him, rather than a completely useless, null filter. He hasn't really been pushing a pro-scum agenda or anything, but what ticks me off is the complete lack of anything pro-town. StorrZerg: + Show Spoiler + The definition of useless. All he has done in this game is to show up at a few random times to remind everyone that "I think Sn0_Man should die." And this ONLY post where he provides any kind of "content", is hilariously horrible. I'm not sure if he's even trying. It looks more like complete trolling, which is something we do not need. I mean really, check this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=431052¤tpage=41#814 3 Arguments which of 1st: Some random shit about flavour 2nd: A post read weird to him -> He checks post history -> Thinks it doesn't line up. This sounds like completely pulled from the ass, especially showing no example. 3rd: Lack of activity, which I can agree with. Not necessarily a scumtell though. What I wonder is why he chose to concentrate on Sn0_Man, when there are lots of players that have put out more content and can be made better reads on. It could be a case of bad town makes case on inactive town but... I have my doubts, since he has at no point in the game shown interest in anything else. Palmar: + Show Spoiler + As others have seem to noticed, he is completely fixated on Mocsta's self-aware miller claim. On October 18 2013 05:39 Palmar wrote: Nope, no current scum reads. What Mocsta did is only beneficial to him if he's scum, it's bad and awful for him if he's town. That doesn't mean he must be scum, I've seen enough people do dumb stuff as town. Which is precisely why I want to know what was his intention with the claim. He claims to have no scumreads at all, and he also hints at not having read the thread. Does not provide reasoning for possibly not having two. Doesn't appear to give a fuck about anything else but trying to figure out Mocsta's reasoning for the claim. What I am wondering, does Palmar really think he can't contribute in a better way with all the other content available? We have QTs and we have the thread which grows all the time. I wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. syllogism: + Show Spoiler + On October 17 2013 14:33 syllogism wrote: I wouldn't bother with the statistical probability of there being mafia in only two houses. It's almost certain that roles have abilities that at least somewhat match their flavor and they were designed before their houses were RNGed. That is to say, mafia characters and roles were designed before any RNG and therefore their houses were not chosen randomly. Even if mafia has fake claims the same thing applies; the fake claims must match their house flavors and it seems very unlikely that those fake claims were designed after players were shuffled. All this is quite useless at this stage, but may have some utility in the end game if the game is close. On October 04 2013 05:58 You-Know-Who wrote: Each player is sorted into a house. Each house has 6 players. Players in the same house will be able to share a house QT. Mafia have been randomly distributed into each house. Mafia KP is # of scum/3 rounded up. 4 - 6 scum= 2KP 3 or less scum= 1KP What ticked me off a little about syllos play is this. The rules say that mafia has been randomly distributed into each house. That pretty much completely debunks his posts. I don't say statistics is something that should be trusted completely on, but given a 90%+ chance I think it's quite reasonable to factor in. It's not even close to a coinflip situation, so it's a fair assumption to make that the mafia has the information. I admit I made the same mistake at first until I rechecked the ruleset about this, but what I don't like either is the way he undermines his own post. If you feel it is quite useless at this stage, why share it? Or did he share just for the sake of sharing his thoughts, or does he actually believe this information may be useful in the end-game but not now? On October 17 2013 15:27 syllogism wrote: Do you genuinely think this is a list of "very good observations"? The only actual "observation" of any note and utility is the first one and I would like you to elaborate on that a bit. Did you believe he was playing his Thug Life playstyle when I initially asked as to why you thought he was "pretty obviously" town or was that based on something else? In this post he shares the Gryffindor members which hadn't been done up till that point. I fail to see how that is irrelevant to share with others. Syllo also completely disregards the last point about StorrZerg, which was very valid in my opinion. The usefulness of Pandain's statements can be argued, but in my opinion it's certainly more than syllo gives credit for. In general, syllos posts seem very calm and analytical. They get straight to the point and have anything unnecessary stripped of them. While this could be very good town play, I feel that these are carefully worded posts that leave anything that could be considered from a scum perspective out. This is partly since his posting gives me the feel of someone stating his opinions in many things, but it doesn't seem like he is actually trying to figure anything out. 4 other people I am suspicious of and will make small cases on unless I change my read strongly: rayko (rayn+Koshi) holyflare skanjab1s Vayne Also... I'm looking for smart lovers. Post your application ASAP. I know you can't resist my charm. It is the theme of the game after all. <3 the issue I have with his list of people he "analyzed" is that everyone had a certain opinion about these guys at this point of time. So Cephiro didn't bring anything new to the table and the post is not helpful at all if we want to get info about his alignment. He just summarizes the bits that were thrown around in this thread up to that point of time. His additional list contains only easy targets, too. Except holyflare. He doesn't really fit in there. But because Ceph doesnt give any reasoning for that list, we don't know why he made his way in there. | ||
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
Discussion starts around the 8 minute mark lasts maybe 5 minutes. | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
On October 18 2013 22:12 Hopeless1der wrote: Mocsta blatantly lied about SAM claims being the correct move according to Palmar (i.e. trying to use Palmar's video to manipulate him) I don't know why he'd be so bold as to use something that can be proven false without checking it, but it makes me want to lynch him. I need to actually read the rest of his content, but that caught my attention. Discussion starts around the 8 minute mark lasts maybe 5 minutes. This is silly. He blatantly misremembered, not lied, and as you point out yourself, it's ridiculous to lie about something so easily verified. | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
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I-be-Pro
Azerbaijan97 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:55 LastArgument wrote: I approve of this message, I was too hasty to be swayed by the big post last night. According to rayn, Cephiro posted more in the QT but not in the thread after his one post. Further his one post doesn't actually push anyone for lynch. In his towngames he seems infinitely more involved than this. This is also pretty concerning, and backs up syllogism's point about the list of names being weird. ##Vote: Cephiro Same here. So with the 3 of us and Supersoft all thinking the same way, only Palmar thinking Ceph is actually town I really like this lynch even more. | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On October 18 2013 21:44 Mattchew wrote: Yeah w.e i should have listened to everyone early last game too ##unvote ##vote sn0_man Ok you switching you vote from that case makes you look a bir better, but why do you make that case saying his case was forcibly bad on sn0, to voteing sn0 yourself? And since he was your first scum read, do you have any others now besides sn0? | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
JAT: I don't like a d1 lynch on him. Both games I've played with him, he was active and if he's town here there is no reason he won't step it up. There are better lynches imo. Question Syllo: Have you thought about lynching me at all this game? Why push JAT over me? Our filters are pretty similarly worthless and I have just spent my last two games lurking as scum. | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
On October 18 2013 22:41 Stutters695 wrote: Ceph: His post is really similar to his posting in Noir. Including how he attacks people who call out his absences, easy targets on d1, etc. He's probably my first choice right now. JAT: I don't like a d1 lynch on him. Both games I've played with him, he was active and if he's town here there is no reason he won't step it up. There are better lynches imo. Question Syllo: Have you thought about lynching me at all this game? Why push JAT over me? Our filters are pretty similarly worthless and I have just spent my last two games lurking as scum. This reasoning makes very little sense. Whenever you play with him as town he is active and involved, he is not active and involved here, therefore he is a bad lynch? That's backwards. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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EchelonTee
United States5256 Posts
On October 18 2013 22:03 syllogism wrote: Lynching justanothertownie is a decent alternative. Zero useful content and him complaining about Palmar after he had finished catching up is quite suspicious. He didn't even suggest that Palmar is mafia for his focus on Mocsta. In Noir he was, as town, chatty and active. He promised for more content before the deadline so lets see how that works out. ...I don't even remember justanothertownie. It's really annoying me that the majority of Cephiro's posts are in QT. It'd be nice of 1 of Pandain VayneAuthority raynpelikonoshi Stutters695 justanothertownie could do an analysis of Cephiro's in QT posts. | ||
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