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On April 07 2008 15:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 12:17 Plexa wrote:On April 07 2008 04:24 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I believe LostYourSkills to be Mafia, along with Energies, and I still suspect Ninja4Ever. I'm still in doubt as to whether the specific names refer to specific people. I suspect BlindAlbino too, but as I don't think there has been anything relating to being blind, except the darkness of the house in day 2 when Mynock went into the room with the lamp off...(edit) Mr. Blonde was also the one in the dark room, blonde = albino, dark room = blind...
I
I highly suspect Blind Albino...
Around now is when the Mafia should be speaking more, and he has been posting more.... Codename =/= Clue Reasoning falls to pieces after that That's implying the code names have nothing to do with the person and that it's the same person every time for each code name. And how did he come up with the code names for each person...
They're all Tarentino characters. Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, Jackie Brown (mostly the vig i think) and Kill Bill.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 07 2008 15:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 12:17 Plexa wrote:On April 07 2008 04:24 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I believe LostYourSkills to be Mafia, along with Energies, and I still suspect Ninja4Ever. I'm still in doubt as to whether the specific names refer to specific people. I suspect BlindAlbino too, but as I don't think there has been anything relating to being blind, except the darkness of the house in day 2 when Mynock went into the room with the lamp off...(edit) Mr. Blonde was also the one in the dark room, blonde = albino, dark room = blind...
I
I highly suspect Blind Albino...
Around now is when the Mafia should be speaking more, and he has been posting more.... Codename =/= Clue Reasoning falls to pieces after that That's implying the code names have nothing to do with the person and that it's the same person every time for each code name. And how did he come up with the code names for each person... Names are from movies (Quentin muvies, kill bill and reservoir dogs iirc)
And yes, each person is one mafia 99% sure (see Queasy -> sidewinder clues)
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well since no one is really communicating anymore, I'm hoping the medics PM me again.
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On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote:Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler +Confirmed Innocent: MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
fusionsdf
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace)
Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever)
---
aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
useLess Do with this what you will.
I'd like to emphasize this once more:
We have the following certain information:
EITHER one out of
- imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, OR two out of
- Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdf
are mafia.
From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia.
At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys!
My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
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On April 07 2008 17:04 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote:Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler +Confirmed Innocent: MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
fusionsdf
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace)
Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever)
---
aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
useLess Do with this what you will. I'd like to emphasize this once more: We have the following certain information: EITHER one out of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenieis mafia, OR two out of - Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdfare mafia. From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia. At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys! My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
I wasn't following recently to the developments. Can sb summarize how these lists came? Especially the relation between the two lists... Is the second list the one derived from the Ghar's list that Ace divided? Will try to catch up later.
Btw, if you are correct and two of 4 are certain mafia from the second list, then i propose 4 vigis cooperate with Ace and each take one of those... two mafia for two townies is a very good deal indeed.
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On April 07 2008 17:15 araav wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 17:04 Scorch wrote:On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote:Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler +Confirmed Innocent: MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
fusionsdf
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace)
Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever)
---
aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
useLess Do with this what you will. I'd like to emphasize this once more: We have the following certain information: EITHER one out of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenieis mafia, OR two out of - Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdfare mafia. From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia. At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys! My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling. I wasn't following recently to the developments. Can sb summarize how these lists came? Especially the relation between the two lists... Is the second list the one derived from the Ghar's list that Ace divided? Will try to catch up later. Btw, if you are correct and two of 4 are certain mafia from the second list, then i propose 4 vigis cooperate with Ace and each take one of those... two mafia for two townies is a very good deal indeed.
One list is the voters for Ghar on day 2, the second list consists of who voted for Ace on day 3. The list of innocents comes from Ace, i think it was compiled in cooperation with New104 (dead detective).
If these premises are correct, then my reasoning should be sound. Remember though that it's either 2/4 or 1/3. So we have one or two mafias among seven suspects.
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On April 05 2008 03:56 (Page 186) Ace wrote:
I also got another set of info confirming that these people are all innocent:
MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin(2)
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler
Maybe I missed it within the depths of this monster thread, but could Ace please explain where this "other set of info" comes from? Is this credible information? If it is not, my whole reasoning crumbles like a house of cards.
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another DT gave me that info
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On April 07 2008 17:04 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote:Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler +Confirmed Innocent: MTF
SpiritoftheTuna
d.arkive
Pangolin
Plexa
~OpZ~
NatsuTerran
Eti307
Empyrean
JoxxOr
Romance_us
BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
fusionsdf
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace)
Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever)
---
aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
useLess Do with this what you will. I'd like to emphasize this once more: We have the following certain information: EITHER one out of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenieis mafia, OR two out of - Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdfare mafia. From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia. At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys! My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
I feel it could be useless, i don't have time to check and research but i remember one of the mafias got tossed aside, and that could refer to useLess as he is "useless"
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OK, I admit that showtime was an idiot and the chatroom story made very little sense anyway. The only reason I half-believed it was that Ace had been backing showtime up. I don't know what Ace is thinking, though, so since he hasn't brought it up since showtime died... I'd change my vote, but the final vote count is in.
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Germany2896 Posts
Currently we have 20/110=18% evil among us. So lynching from a group where the DT returned that about 1/5th=20% is mafia does not help. We should devise some plan to make sure the mafia cannot easily adjust the evil percentage on all votegroups to ~20%.
One way the achieve this is dictatorship of a confirmed good person. But that course takes out fun for all other townies, because they can no longer vote for themselves.
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Ace, if you have any more information from the DTs, especially any lists we can use, it'd be greatly appreciated if you would disclose them.
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Ugh, just missed voting by a little bit -_-;;
I suppose I would have abstained anyway; everyone's clues point every which way.
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On April 07 2008 23:11 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Currently we have 20/110=18% evil among us. So lynching from a group where the DT returned that about 1/5th=20% is mafia does not help. We should devise some plan to make sure the mafia cannot easily adjust the evil percentage on all votegroups to ~20%.
One way the achieve this is dictatorship of a confirmed good person. But that course takes out fun for all other townies, because they can no longer vote for themselves.
Wrong. We started at 20/130=15.4% mafia. At the moment, 90 townies and 18 mafia are still alive, which gives 18/108=16.7% mafia. Mafia managed to shift the percentage a bit to their advantage, but after the next kill they will have less killing power. The longer the game goes, the more information becomes available. So i think town is on a good way to victory.
And the confirmed town-aligned leader would be our mayor, Ace.
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On April 07 2008 23:11 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Currently we have 20/110=18% evil among us. So lynching from a group where the DT returned that about 1/5th=20% is mafia does not help. We should devise some plan to make sure the mafia cannot easily adjust the evil percentage on all votegroups to ~20%.
One way the achieve this is dictatorship of a confirmed good person. But that course takes out fun for all other townies, because they can no longer vote for themselves.
wtf...have you even posted in this thread before?
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On April 07 2008 23:22 MidnightGladius wrote:
Ace, if you have any more information from the DTs, especially any lists we can use, it'd be greatly appreciated if you would disclose them.
Like the BG list? =\
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One of the ways we could approach this is similar to what Ace devised earlier, splitting a vote into two groups.
Just take the confirmed innocents and have them all abstain/vote for a specific suspicious person, while the rest are split into several groups to vote for other specific people, then have DT check the lists.
In this manner, we know how many active voters = mafia and how many inactive are, and if we get very lucky, we could possibly get a slightly more significant number into a single list to narrow down the percentage of error.
And, of course
We have the following certain information:
EITHER one out of
- imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, OR two out of
- Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdf
are mafia.
From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia.
Everyone should be examining these people.
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Germany2896 Posts
@OpZ:
yes I posted several times during the first 70 pages or so. But then I had no internet for a week. And you used that time to produce about 100 pages.
On April 08 2008 00:13 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2008 23:11 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Currently we have 20/110=18% evil among us. So lynching from a group where the DT returned that about 1/5th=20% is mafia does not help. We should devise some plan to make sure the mafia cannot easily adjust the evil percentage on all votegroups to ~20%.
One way the achieve this is dictatorship of a confirmed good person. But that course takes out fun for all other townies, because they can no longer vote for themselves. Wrong. We started at 20/130=15.4% mafia. At the moment, 90 townies and 18 mafia are still alive, which gives 18/108=16.7% mafia. Mafia managed to shift the percentage a bit to their advantage, but after the next kill they will have less killing power. The longer the game goes, the more information becomes available. So i think town is on a good way to victory. And the confirmed town-aligned leader would be our mayor, Ace.
Do saboteur and terrorist cound as innocent for the detective? And even if it's 0.02 less, it does not change the fact that it is good if the mafia percentage in a given selection is as far appart from 20% as possible. So we should try to achieve that.
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On April 08 2008 01:12 MTF wrote:
One of the ways we could approach this is similar to what Ace devised earlier, splitting a vote into two groups.
Just take the confirmed innocents and have them all abstain/vote for a specific suspicious person, while the rest are split into several groups to vote for other specific people, then have DT check the lists.
In this manner, we know how many active voters = mafia and how many inactive are, and if we get very lucky, we could possibly get a slightly more significant number into a single list to narrow down the percentage of error.
The problem with this being that there is only a single detective left.
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EPT
