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I will most probably not get online from about an hour to the end of the night. The next day-phase is during the week, I´ll have much more time then to get to the bottom of this then. I don´t have much advice to give in case I get night-killed, but I´ve a few things to add, mostly to identify Sheep/Lurkers.
I´ve been tunneling on the Zorkmid and elmizzt connection, both of them calling me scum for not posting during the start of the first day, when I was asleep and had informed people of this beforehand. I have the feeling that Zorkmid was the talkative Mafia, elmizzt the quiet one. Elmizzt hasn´t really said anything except agreeing with lynching inactives and agreeing with a weird post with weak arguments from Zorkmid.
I get a bit of bad wibes from Vain, not because he´s a slow poster, but because I don´t see him posting his own reasons for jumping on the wagon against Shcoleosis. It didn´t take long for people to start voting once the first vote was in. Zork and Sandroba voted quickly, but they had allready stated they had FoS on Shcoleosis, while Vains voting felt more like he was just agreeing rather than making up his own mind. I´d like to see some more reasons from him.
Senj is also very slow on posting, not saying anything except encouraging analysis.
So Lurkers:
Senj
Vain
elmizzt (with possible Zorkmid connection)
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Do we have a current votes counter?
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I think it is:
Scholeosis : 2 (Zorkmid, Vain)
Zorkmid : 2 (Eternalmisfit, Forumite)
Senj : 1 (Sandroba)
Varpulis, elmizzit, scholeosis and Senj have still to cast vote. (Varpulis voted and then unvoted Shcoleosis)
Mod: If someone doesn't vote, do they get modkilled?
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Offline for the night, good luck with the lynching.
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Alright, I'm awake now. I guess I should vote, to avoid the modkill. IMO, both Scholeosis and Zorkmid might be scum, but both have been fairly active, so I'd much rather lynch a lurker.
My vote goes to Elmizzt, because not only has he not contributed anything meaningful, he also pretended to contribute by parroting one of Zorkmid's bullshit analyses about how sandroba and forumite are both mafia because forumite was afk and sandroba defended him.
I urge the people currently voting for active players to switch their votes to the lurkers, so that at least we can pressure them into activity.
##Vote: Elmizzt
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On April 16 2011 22:11 Forumite wrote:
I will most probably not get online from about an hour to the end of the night. The next day-phase is during the week, I´ll have much more time then to get to the bottom of this then. I don´t have much advice to give in case I get night-killed, but I´ve a few things to add, mostly to identify Sheep/Lurkers.
I´ve been tunneling on the Zorkmid and elmizzt connection, both of them calling me scum for not posting during the start of the first day, when I was asleep and had informed people of this beforehand. I have the feeling that Zorkmid was the talkative Mafia, elmizzt the quiet one. Elmizzt hasn´t really said anything except agreeing with lynching inactives and agreeing with a weird post with weak arguments from Zorkmid.
I get a bit of bad wibes from Vain, not because he´s a slow poster, but because I don´t see him posting his own reasons for jumping on the wagon against Shcoleosis. It didn´t take long for people to start voting once the first vote was in. Zork and Sandroba voted quickly, but they had allready stated they had FoS on Shcoleosis, while Vains voting felt more like he was just agreeing rather than making up his own mind. I´d like to see some more reasons from him.
Senj is also very slow on posting, not saying anything except encouraging analysis.
So Lurkers:
Senj
Vain
elmizzt (with possible Zorkmid connection)
Hmm, the reason i voted for shcoleosis is that in my opinion her behaviour was very scummy like( switching sides, saying things like first time playing guys). Witch was pointed out earlyer by the other players before me. She did not post again untill after i voted for her. I may note that the posts after that were not so much scum behaviour, but i am still not really convinced we have a better alternative. Although zorkmid could be suspected due to throwing accusations out like there is no tomorrow, which could be his strategy but is drawing attention to him and would be very risky if he were to be scum. Nevertheless zorkmid would be my number two but only to him being profoundly accusing. I haven't really looked in the accusations of the others too much but i'll try to post an analysis of them later on.
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On April 17 2011 00:17 VarpuliS wrote:
Alright, I'm awake now. I guess I should vote, to avoid the modkill. IMO, both Scholeosis and Zorkmid might be scum, but both have been fairly active, so I'd much rather lynch a lurker.
##Vote: Elmizzt
I guess I can follow your logic here. Though I still suspicious of Zorkmid, I would rather vote a lurker than risk of voting off a active townie by chance.
##Unvote
##Vote: Elmizzit
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Just checked, and Senj has a grand total of three posts, none of which have very much content, if any. His posts are:
+ Show Spoiler [post 1] +On April 15 2011 11:18 Senj wrote:
GL HF broskis. Not sure I agree Eternalmisfit, seeing as we're all relatively new to the mafia game. This is in response to Eternalmisfit's suggestion that we lynch an inactive. He says, in effect, we're all new, so lynching inactives is bad. Not only does this make no sense, but it nicely defends any scum that are just lurking. Either bad townie play or scum.
+ Show Spoiler [post 2] +On April 15 2011 12:41 Senj wrote:
Yeah, basically. I guess that's kind of the idea of keeping the thread active though, more posts mean more chances to slip up and divulge too much information.
Somewhat unrelated, but I just broke a 9 game lose streak. :D huuuuuge relief there. Now comes a 180, wherein he agrees with the majority who are in favor of an inactive lynch and then gives a valid reason why. This would be good town play, except that since then, he has made a grand total of 1 post. Seems a bit suspicious.
+ Show Spoiler [post 3] +On April 15 2011 12:54 Senj wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2011 12:52 elmizzt wrote:On April 15 2011 12:49 Zorkmid wrote:I for one am going to vote that we lynch the quiet most innocent seeming player  I might even do a character count! hmmm...how long until we can start eye-ing some of the inactive players and leaning on em a little? I'm already taking note that we have yet to see Forumite, Vain and Varpulis, however; I feel it's a little early yet. By the halfway mark on the first day I'll be suspicious if we haven't heard from them yet. This is a low content post. Here, he's noting the players who have yet to speak, (two of whom posted before the game began that they would be inactive early on due to IRL reasons) All that this post says is, "they haven't contributed yet, if they don't contribute soon, I'll be suspicious." This is saying something without actually saying something. It's a false contribution, and it indicates scum to me.
##Unvote: Elmizzt
##Vote: Senj
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On April 16 2011 22:31 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Mod: If someone doesn't vote, do they get modkilled?
Yes they do get modkilled
shcoleosis: 2
Vain
Zorkmid
Zorkmid: 1
Forumite
Senj: 2
sandroba
Varpulis
elmizzit: 1
Eternalmisfit
shcoleosis to be lynched on account of getting to 2 votes first
People who haven't voted yet: Shcoleosis, elmizzit, senj
10 hours and 25 minutes remaining till the end of day
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Eternalmisfit: I suggest changing your vote to Senj. This will prevent Shcoleosis and Zorkmid from being lynched, and put some real pressure on the lurker.
scenario 1: Senj/Elmizzt comes back, votes Shcoleosis, Shcoleosis gets lynched. BAD
scenario 2: Shcoleosis gets back first, votes Zorkmid, and Zorkmid gets lynched. BAD
scenario 3: With your vote on Senj, Zorkmid and Shcoleosis both need 2 more votes against them to be lynched, which is unlikely unless the mafia bandwagons, which will give us information about who the mafia is. GOOD
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On April 17 2011 00:46 VarpuliS wrote:
Eternalmisfit: I suggest changing your vote to Senj. This will prevent Shcoleosis and Zorkmid from being lynched, and put some real pressure on the lurker.
scenario 1: Senj/Elmizzt comes back, votes Shcoleosis, Shcoleosis gets lynched. BAD
scenario 2: Shcoleosis gets back first, votes Zorkmid, and Zorkmid gets lynched. BAD
scenario 3: With your vote on Senj, Zorkmid and Shcoleosis both need 2 more votes against them to be lynched, which is unlikely unless the mafia bandwagons, which will give us information about who the mafia is. GOOD
EBWOP: It seems that Zorkmid is not in danger after all, after a ninja edit by Chaoser. I'd still like another vote on Senj though, to prevent a lynch on Sholeosis, who's as likely to be town as not, and is at least contributing.
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Varpulis: I plan to be active all day and will change my vote later according to the situation. I am just keeping one vote on elmizzit so that he doesn't think it is safe to not post.
Also, I would prefer that someone who is being modkilled anyone be lycnhed. Since the first day is a crapshoot for the most, it is better to lynch someone being modkilled anyways.
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Alright, I see your point. As the deadline approaches we'll see who starts talking/voting and who gets themselves modkilled, then we can make a more informed decision.
@mods: If the person with the most votes gets modkilled, do they still get lynched or does the person with the second highest amount of votes get lynched?
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On April 17 2011 01:26 VarpuliS wrote:
@mods: If the person with the most votes gets modkilled, do they still get lynched or does the person with the second highest amount of votes get lynched?
They still get lynched. The determination for modkill, however, isn't done until the end of day so if they come in with a minute left to the day and drop a vote, they won't be modkilled.
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Great! So if we determine that somebody is likely to be modkilled for not voting, we can lynch them and avoid losing more townies day 1 to mislynch. If they're barely avoiding the modkill, they're not being active/helpful anyways, so they're a good lynch target anyways.
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Not going to be on much today--It's a Saturday and I've things to do. It looks like I'm about to get lynched, and over the weakest of false reasons. I think my previous posts indicate why I would vote for Zorkmid. However, if Zorkmid, much to my dismay, ends up being anything other than scum, the pressure's going to automatically be on me. I've already had to defend my position as townie once.
Basically I'm doing this to save my ass.
##Vote: Senj
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On April 17 2011 00:46 VarpuliS wrote:
Eternalmisfit: I suggest changing your vote to Senj. This will prevent Shcoleosis and Zorkmid from being lynched, and put some real pressure on the lurker.
scenario 1: Senj/Elmizzt comes back, votes Shcoleosis, Shcoleosis gets lynched. BAD
scenario 2: Shcoleosis gets back first, votes Zorkmid, and Zorkmid gets lynched. BAD
scenario 3: With your vote on Senj, Zorkmid and Shcoleosis both need 2 more votes against them to be lynched, which is unlikely unless the mafia bandwagons, which will give us information about who the mafia is. GOOD
I follow this logic, and most of what I have tried to do so far is get to everyone talking.
So the "lurker" we're all talking about is Senj? I'm changing my vote in the hopes that Senj comes back and we can get a better read on him.
#unvote
##vote Senj
I'm going to post my analysis of each player soon. Stay tuned.
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Senj
He has added nothing to discussion at this point and seems like a classic example of lurker. If I cannot find any strong candidates for being mafia by the end of the day, he will be my go-to vote to avoid killing an active townie. (stolen from Misfit)
Unless something changes, this is my vote for day 1
Elmizzit (this guy has got me confused.)
On April 15 2011 23:03 Zorkmid wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'm suspicious that this means that sandroba is scum, and knows that that his scum buddy is going to be inactive.
This points to Forumrite.
Show nested quote +
It doesn't matter that he posted this before he was even PM'ed.....if my assumption about sandroba holds true, than he has already revealed he AND Forumrite.
How do you plead?
This seemed retarded at first, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense....
It seems too convenient that forumite is afk at the start and that sandroba would make that statement.
Plus, my gut tells me that the first person who breaks and makes an outright accusation is suspicious, and that was Sandroba as well.
I'm a bit suspicious of this, he seems the only one to have outright agreed with my very first observation that Shcoleosis was scum, and therefore Forumite (inactive at that point) was too.
Also, the post I quoted is his only post of substance. The rest were about trying to get inactives to talk (when he is very inactive himself). To me this could indicate either that he feels there isn't much to be said at this point, or that he doesn't want to slip up.
VarpuliS
He has been pressuring lurkers, as I have been. I feel like this is strong town play. Also, he has prodded other players to share their ideas. To me, he is doing as good a job as I am to get as many posts out there as possible for analysis, and this to me indicates strong town play.
Shcoleosis FoS
I'm very suspicious of this player. She has been the first person to echo several ideas of other players....
Example
On April 15 2011 11:12 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Btw I think we should lynch people who are inactive or lurking the boards as it is more likely that they are trying to stay under and radar and avoid suspicion on themselves by barely posting at all.
Yeah, that seem logical. We don't want to kill innocent townies, though...It's the mafia we want gone! I highly doubt any mafia would be lurking or inactive when they have chances to kill. But who am I to say...I'm still learning :/
I also find it very scummy that when eyes are on her, she reminds us that she's new to the game, as if that had anything to do with anything.
Forumite
I initially cast suspicion on this player because he seemed to be one of the inactives I perceived Shcoleosis to be protecting.
Over time I have I grown to feel he is a townie, he has done what myself and Varpulis have done, pressuring lurkers and trying to get the posts flowing.
I have also felt that he has made too many references that try identify who the lurkers are, to me it just came off as trying to lynch a certain inactive that he may is a townie.
Sandroba
Has posted some pretty good analytical thoughts, has seemed very pro town.
There is one mistake he made early on that I just simply cannot get past. And in the wake of what he has posted since, I just can't wrap my head around. I could be nothing, but I think everyone needs to see these two consecutive posts.
1. In response to my first idea that sandroba is scum because he knows that forumite was gonna be inactive and was trying to protect him.
That makes no kind of sense whatsoever. How is me saying losing townies is a bad thing makes me scum? I'm obviously town. The idea of lynching inactives is really just to make sure everyone post enough so we can get a read on them.
Also attacking the one doing analisys on you is not good town play. That's called OMGUS from what I've read. If you really are town then you should either defend yourself or make a case of someone you think is scum (a decent one, not the nonsencical one you've posted) so you can actually help town.
I also have no connection with forumite and I fail to see how you could possibly have drawn this conclusion. And to say it doesn't matter if he posted that before or after he got PM'ed is just LOL.
You are looking more and more like scum to me.
Whoa, I thought that was scholeosis posting that, and I was thinking we had a clear scum for day 1 lynch. Besides the analisys part, since I haven't done one on you, my point still stands. I don't think you are scum though, since you are actually trying to do analises, although not a good one.
I don't know exactly what it means that he has a TOTALLY different idea about a post depending on who posted it, but it's weird.
Vain
Hmm, the reason i voted for shcoleosis is that in my opinion her behaviour was very scummy like( switching sides, saying things like first time playing guys). Witch was pointed out earlyer by the other players before me. She did not post again untill after i voted for her. I may note that the posts after that were not so much scum behaviour, but i am still not really convinced we have a better alternative. Although zorkmid could be suspected due to throwing accusations out like there is no tomorrow, which could be his strategy but is drawing attention to him and would be very risky if he were to be scum. Nevertheless zorkmid would be my number two but only to him being profoundly accusing. I haven't really looked in the accusations of the others too much but i'll try to post an analysis of them later on.
Ok, so my logic for thinking Vain is a Townie is a bit convoluted, but here goes:
I don't think that a mafioso would want to be perceived to suspect two people on opposite sides of the argument between Shcoleosis and myself. I think that Shcoleosis is scum, and I think that if Vain was scum he would be on one side or the other, defending me OR Shcoleosis. Not both of us.
EternalMisfit
Every post I have seen of his, has been thoughtful conversation starting analysis. I think that he has used his voting to spark even more conversation. We'll see how it goes in these last ~10 hours, but I think this mofo is town.
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OK. Here are my thoughts for scum:
I think Sandroba has some qualities that are pretty suspicious.
In his posting, here are the aspects I find to be suspicious:
First, he keeps referencing material that he has read outside of the game:
That's called OMGUS from what I've read.
Zorkmid chainsaw defense of scholeosis seems suspicous aswell, but if it is indeed a chainsaw defense then pressuring scholeosis should be able to reveal them both.
To me, this screams someone who read a mafia wiki page or something and is leaning on these terms and outside information as a source of authority. He can sound much more confident and harder to attack by dropping these even without a leg to stand on.
Second, he keeps talking from the point of view of a mafia, which I feel is a slip as well:
is the situation too confortable that the scum can sit back and realx?
this debate of me zorkmid and forumite throwing suspicion against each other is getting too confortable for the mafia
This one especially, in response to zorkmid's accusation:
Also attacking the one doing analisys on you is not good town play
I feel like this is a huge slip, as he's speaking as though he knows that the person he is responding to is town.
Couple other things that are suspicious, his argument rebuttles are always just fluff and dismissal:
I'm obviously town.
And to say it doesn't matter if he posted that before or after he got PM'ed is just LOL
make a case of someone you think is scum (a decent one, not the nonsencical one you've posted)
This makes it easy to shut down opinions quickly and that attitude makes it extremely hard to respond. Basically I feel like sandroba has been screaming for more analysis and more posts, but whenever anyone posts arguments, he tries to shut them down quickly or dismiss them as a joke.
However, Senj having seemingly disappeared makes me a little leery as well...I'm leaning more towards voting Senj at the moment.
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Elmizzt: Make sure you vote before the deadline. The last thing we need is a modkill.
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EPT
