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GSL Super Tournament #2: RO16 Day 2 Preview (2022)

Forum Index > SC2 General
15 CommentsPost a Reply

GSL Super Tournament #2: RO16 Day 2 Preview (2022)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
November 30th, 2022 07:07 GMT

2022 GSL Super Tournament 2 - RO16 Day Two

by Wax

Start time: Thursday, Dec 01 8:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Day one of the Super Tournament produced some one-sided results, but day two has the potential to be much more interesting. Not only is it stacked with title contenders like herO, Bunny, and Dark, but it also features a very intriguing rematch from DreamHack Atlanta.

(Wiki)2022 GSL: Super Tournament 2
[image loading]


Round of 16 - Match #5: herO vs Bunny

Day two starts with a literal grand finals caliber match as herO and Bunny face off in a rematch from the DreamHack Atlanta finals. That match was one of the most exciting finals in recent memory, with Bunny riding his underdog momentum to a 3-1 lead in the first half of the series. However, herO's experience won out in the end, as he remained calm and collected to take a 4-3 comeback victory.

A big part of Bunny's initial series lead was his use of unorthodox 2-Barracks/3-Reaper openers. Not only did Bunny use his Reapers to inflict early damage, but he also got into herO's head by forcing early Probe scouts. While I think it's a little too simplistic to say that herO was clearly the better player once he adjusted to Bunny's 3-Reaper openers, the element of surprise did seem to confer Bunny a temporary advantage.

Thus, I think this rematch will also hinge on Bunny's early game strategies. He has been excellent at crafting cheesy attacks during his rise over the last year, and he will surely have reviewed the finals games and restocked with more unexpected openers. As for herO, I think the key decision for him will be whether to keep playing his hyper-aggressive PvT style, or pivot to being more reactive against such an aggressive opponent.

Aligulac gives herO a 66% chance of winning, which roughly aligns with how I feel about this match (I think the gap is a bit narrower, but what's five percentage points here and there). I'll take herO to win after another close series.

Prediction: herO 3 - 2 Bunny

Round of 16 - Match #6: DongRaeGu vs Ryung

The one-sided nature of day one threatens to carry over into this match, with DongRaeGu playing his best match-up of ZvT against Ryung's worst match-up of TvZ. The Aligulac rating margin between these two players is a hefty 500 points, which makes DRG around a 80:20 favorite according to the stats website. The head-to-head record points to a DRG victory as well, with DRG having won all four of their post-military clashes with a total 8-1 map score.

Ryung can pack a mean punch with two-base Marine-Tank all-ins or proxy-Barracks cheeses, but they have become a far too predictable move from him when facing stronger players. While Ryung might take a map with a proxy-Barracks if DRG low-rolls on his Overlord/Drone scouting directions, DRG is still overwhelmingly favored to win if he plays a standard macro game. Another potential X-factor for Ryung is late-game turtling, as DRG still struggles to manage late-game Hive armies. However, he's also so good at Lair-tech swarming that most non-Maru Terrans can't properly get into a turtle stance against him. In the end, I see DRG taking the series without too much difficulty.

Prediction: DongRaeGu 3 - 1 Ryung

Round of 16 - Match #7: Dark vs soO

This bout projects to be one-sided as well, with recent AfreecaTV Champions Cup winner Dark looking like a huge favorite against military returnee soO.

Usually, ZvZ is the match-up where I give underdogs the biggest benefit of the doubt, especially if they're a former ZvZ great like soO. The Roach-Ravager wars that form the core of ZvZ haven't changed all that much over the years compared to the rest of StarCraft II, and one could theorize that such a player would easily return to their old form in the Zerg mirror.

And that was allegedly the case during the early days of soO's return from the military, where he was said to have bounced back quickly in ZvZ while struggling to adjust to the metas in the other match-ups. However, about ten months into soO's return, things have flipped so that ZvZ is actually soO's worst match-up according to Aligulac.com. He's projected as a heavy underdog against the fearsome Dark, with only a 20% chance of winning.

As I said with Classic on day one, I think the future is wide open for military returnees who are still only around a year into their returns. But for now, I can't see soO overcoming a current top-tier player like Dark.

Prediction: Dark 3 - 1 soO

Round of 16 - Match #8: RagnaroK vs Cure

Hopefully, the RO16 will finish with a banger as two of the top Zerg and Terran players in the world face off. I would have been reluctant to afford RagnaroK that status just a few months ago, when I wasn't entirely sure what to make of his back-to-back top six runs in the GSL. But after a run to the Code S finals, in which he largely discarded his cheeses in favor of macro play, there was no choice but to acknowledge RagnaroK as one of the best Zergs in the world. As for Cure, he has definitely come down from the Code S championship peak he hit one year ago, but he still has to be counted among the top five Terrans in the game.

RagnaroK seemed to struggle with ZvT for a few weeks after his 0-4 blowout loss to Maru in the GSL finals, dropping a number of online series to strong Terrans like Bunny, ByuN, and even Cure himself. However, he seemed to be back in shape in the two series he played in DreamHack Atlanta, beating Ryung 2-0 and taking a 3-0 sweep against HeroMarine. On the other hand, Cure had mixed results in the American event, winning 2-1 against Lambo in the group stages but ultimately being eliminated by DRG in a 1-3 loss. The trusty Aligulac calculator says RagnaroK is favored with a 62.13% chance of winning, but I think this match-up is closer to 50/50 if both players are playing in ideal conditions. However, due to Cure's tendency of underperforming in live studio/arena events, I have to give RagnaroK the edge.

Prediction: RagnaroK 3 - 2 Cure




Writer: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics and records: Liquipedia and Aligulac.com

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TL+ Member
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
627 Posts
November 30 2022 21:09 GMT
#2
Should be a better set of matches than Day One, though I agree the middle two may be a bit weaker.
Topin
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Peru9753 Posts
December 01 2022 01:34 GMT
#3
thanks for the preview!. soO vs Dark is kind of interesting and herO vs Bunny should be good too.
i would define my style between a mix of ByuN, Maru and MKP
mintyminmus
Profile Joined September 2022
Australia39 Posts
December 01 2022 11:18 GMT
#4
KR looks like it's running out of players. Even with a bracket of 16, some of these matches end up very one-sided
xyfan
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
1918 Posts
December 01 2022 11:59 GMT
#5
Yeah, there are only about 12 active players in KR that meet the "standard" GSL quality.
MrIronGolem27
Profile Joined July 2020
United States57 Posts
December 01 2022 12:48 GMT
#6
Welp. Some of these predictions aged poorly.
HyperONE: StarCraft 2 caster, tournament organizer (host of Circle Derping, the monthly Beast of the Hill FFA series), mapmaker (TLMC#17 3rd+5th place), and member of Platinum Heroes clan
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States14557 Posts
December 01 2022 14:01 GMT
#7
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.
@KTVindicare:twitch.tv/ktvindicare youtube.com/ktvindicare Host of the Geeky Bartender podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/37cUiMLwFIZ4fNz6qLGxjZ?si=LhiiC08lRgCGjs4Muoma3g&dl_branch=1
TossHeroes
Profile Joined February 2022
149 Posts
December 01 2022 14:29 GMT
#8
Day of 3-0
nostrasbeefs
Profile Joined May 2017
26 Posts
December 01 2022 17:45 GMT
#9
Damn Bunny got his revenge. Was the only really surprise, the rest was kinda expected
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
627 Posts
December 02 2022 14:24 GMT
#10
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo Ro24/Ro10/Ro6 Cure.
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France11721 Posts
December 02 2022 14:29 GMT
#11
On December 02 2022 23:24 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo Ro24/Ro10/Ro6 Cure.

As my ophthalmologist would often say, "hindsight 20/20". Or was it eye sight 20/20? I should ask my ENT doctor about it...
WriterSee you at Katowice 2023 :), will be the guy with a Maru shirt
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States14557 Posts
December 02 2022 18:00 GMT
#12
On December 02 2022 23:24 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo GSL Code S Champion Cure.


Fixed that for you.
@KTVindicare:twitch.tv/ktvindicare youtube.com/ktvindicare Host of the Geeky Bartender podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/37cUiMLwFIZ4fNz6qLGxjZ?si=LhiiC08lRgCGjs4Muoma3g&dl_branch=1
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
627 Posts
December 03 2022 04:04 GMT
#13
On December 03 2022 03:00 Vindicare605 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 02 2022 23:24 QOGQOG wrote:
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo GSL Code S Champion Cure.


Fixed that for you.

Wow, nice, you really owned me. I personally feel like someone having garbage results for (almost) a year is reason to doubt them, but you do you.
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States14557 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-12-03 06:28:14
December 03 2022 06:19 GMT
#14
On December 03 2022 13:04 QOGQOG wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2022 03:00 Vindicare605 wrote:
On December 02 2022 23:24 QOGQOG wrote:
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo GSL Code S Champion Cure.


Fixed that for you.

Wow, nice, you really owned me. I personally feel like someone having garbage results for (almost) a year is reason to doubt them, but you do you.


I don't know why you guys are so desperate to bet on Ragnarok. He hit his ceiling this year. He's just not a champion player. Wax knows it, but he's still desperately trying to give him some kind of benefit of the doubt but if you watch him play it's PAINFULLY obvious that he shows nothing of being top level. He doesn't come up with his own builds, he doesn't have top level macro, or micro or game sense. He's just kind of average for a pro level Zerg. He's good enough to hang around in GSL but he's never going to win one.

His run to the finals last season required every ounce of luck possible to get there. He's not going to get further than that, it's unlikely he's ever going to even repeat it. At no point has he ever looked like he has another level in him that he can get to.

Cure on the other hand is the exact opposite. He's a hot/cold player with flashes of brilliance with little to no stability. He's like a Terran version of Zest, if he catches fire he can beat anyone. His run to the GSL final was just him catching fire and staying hot long enough to seal the deal. He can do that again, is it likely? No, probably not, but it's more possible than Ragnarok leveling up to get to Dark or Rogue's level.

I'll bet on Cure 100x out of 100 because Ragnarok's ceiling just isn't that high. He's not a champion level player.
@KTVindicare:twitch.tv/ktvindicare youtube.com/ktvindicare Host of the Geeky Bartender podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/37cUiMLwFIZ4fNz6qLGxjZ?si=LhiiC08lRgCGjs4Muoma3g&dl_branch=1
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France11721 Posts
December 03 2022 22:32 GMT
#15
Well Cure got his championship mostly off being able to prepare extensively well for his superior protoss opponents (yup, Zest is the perfect Protoss in the same way that Serral is the perfect zerg, which makes him predictable), so I don’t think the argument that Cure won a GSL while RagnaroK lost to Maru of all people means Cure should beat RagnaroK no matter what.

Cure has been brilliant in TvZ in the past (the widow mine era vs Serral and Reynor) and dogshit at some points (in 2022?), so imho the prediction was kinda reasonable.
WriterSee you at Katowice 2023 :), will be the guy with a Maru shirt
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
627 Posts
December 04 2022 01:35 GMT
#16
On December 03 2022 15:19 Vindicare605 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 03 2022 13:04 QOGQOG wrote:
On December 03 2022 03:00 Vindicare605 wrote:
On December 02 2022 23:24 QOGQOG wrote:
On December 01 2022 23:01 Vindicare605 wrote:
Wax dude. I can appreciate that you're trying to give Ragnarok the benefit of the doubt. But come on.

Yeah, crazy that he'd predict that RagnaroK, coming off a year of Ro6/Ro6/Finals, would outdo GSL Code S Champion Cure.


Fixed that for you.

Wow, nice, you really owned me. I personally feel like someone having garbage results for (almost) a year is reason to doubt them, but you do you.


I don't know why you guys are so desperate to bet on Ragnarok. He hit his ceiling this year. He's just not a champion player. Wax knows it, but he's still desperately trying to give him some kind of benefit of the doubt but if you watch him play it's PAINFULLY obvious that he shows nothing of being top level. He doesn't come up with his own builds, he doesn't have top level macro, or micro or game sense. He's just kind of average for a pro level Zerg. He's good enough to hang around in GSL but he's never going to win one.

His run to the finals last season required every ounce of luck possible to get there. He's not going to get further than that, it's unlikely he's ever going to even repeat it. At no point has he ever looked like he has another level in him that he can get to.

Cure on the other hand is the exact opposite. He's a hot/cold player with flashes of brilliance with little to no stability. He's like a Terran version of Zest, if he catches fire he can beat anyone. His run to the GSL final was just him catching fire and staying hot long enough to seal the deal. He can do that again, is it likely? No, probably not, but it's more possible than Ragnarok leveling up to get to Dark or Rogue's level.

I'll bet on Cure 100x out of 100 because Ragnarok's ceiling just isn't that high. He's not a champion level player.

In Premier Tournaments this year:

Last Chance
Cure 2nd, RagnaroK Ro16

Super Tournament I
Cure Ro16, RagnaroK DNQ

Katowice 2022
Cure Ro24, RagnaroK withdrew due to illness

GSL Season 1
Cure Ro24, RagnaroK 5th
Note: In the same group but didn't play each other.

GSL Season 2
Cure Ro10, RagnaroK 6th
Note: RagnaroK 2:0 Cure in the Ro24

Valencia 2022
Cure DNQ, RagnaroK Ro16

TSL9
Cure DNQ, RagnaroK Top 24

GSL Season 3
Cure 6th, RagnaroK 2nd

Not hard to see why someone would think momentum was on Rag's side. But, hey, if Cure's decided to stop being terrible for the first time since January, that's great news. He's a fun player when he's not choking.
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