The Global Event We Need?

Much as been said about the new tournament landscape in StarCraft II for 2016. The biggest complaint, of course, is the lack of opportunities for Korean players to travel and plunder the world for prize money. What was once a common occurrence for any major/premier tournament is now a rarity. In fact, we have yet to see a single "Global Circuit" Event.

While it's still premature to wallow in pessimism (after all, you may have noticed Carmac post all those tweets from his meetings in Korea), there's still a growing hunger to see how the world matches up with Korea. Or, rather, if the world has even made progress in catching up with the world's strongest country. Sure, NationWars showed that, perhaps, the gap is narrowing, but hardly anyone believes that to be the case in 1v1 competition. After almost 5 months of isolation, the fans yearn for a chance to see whether the bar is still out of reach.

Enter WCA and its Asian Spring Qualifier. This will, ostensibly, be the first "global circuit" event of 2016. Despite being limited only to Asian players at this point (and with information about the main event still to be announced), it gives us a taste of what's to come. The rest of the Asian region is shrouded in mystery for most foreign fans, and even though we've seen our share of unrestricted online competition, these qualifiers carry greater consequences. The winners will attend an offline event and act as representatives for an entire region, and we will have our first real global event.

Before the main online qualifier, however, 8 players must battle to decide 4 available slots. These 4 players will not only carry the flag of Korea into the Asian qualifiers; they will also be the standard by which we measure everyone else. There are some reservations however: only MVP and Afreeca are represented among the Proleague teams. In years past, we've seen stacked Korean qualifiers more difficult than the main event, and this 8 man field isn't quite the buffet we're used to. All 8 are talented, and in fact many count among Code S players, yet we've come to expect a gauntlet much bloodier than this. Any set of 4 players will be more than worthy, and you have to expect that they'll be the favorites come the main event.


Despite these reservations, it's still a global event, and the first in 2016. It's a meaningful moment in this year's tournament circuit, and hopefully more organizers open up their doors to truly global competition. Here's hoping this is just the appetizer.

The Representatives

Curious vs GuMiho

In some ways, this is reminiscent of the Losira vs GuMiho matches of old. A zerg with late game confidence who's generally shown enough skill to be 'good' but not enough to be 'amazing' against...well, GuMiho. There's no real replacement for the Towel Terran, and watching his unique style continue into his third expansion is a real treat. Expect interesting, varied late-game matches from these two, or maybe just a bunch of roach/ravager all-ins if Curious deems GuMiho unworthy. Both of these guys have played with a renewed skill in Legacy, and whoever wins is a big favorite going forward.

Predictions

We've recently seen plenty of terrans taking on the zerg late game with all sorts of styles, from Maru and TY's skyterran variants, to Dream's bio-mine HotS standard, to Bomber's 'I guess we're still in 2013' mass bio style. GuMiho's certainly shown mastery of all of them, and notably beat ByuL in Proleague with an MMMM composition with liberator support. Still though, Curious is solid enough to take him on in the late game, and experienced enough to end things early should Plan A fail, and with the number of tricks on offer to zergs, could well edge out GuMiho in a tight series.

Curious 2 - 1 GuMiho

Patience vs Symbol

Patience made top four at SSL, but still can't find a way to earn respect in Korea thanks to SSL's slightly questionable qualifiers and generally abnormal format. In fact, all he's found is a 7-set losing streak since his win against RagnaroK, including an 0-2 against GuMiho. Unfortunately, the Blue Moon protoss probably won't find one here; Symbol has been unable to find his footing for yet another year, but at least a victory now (and especially later in the tournament) will help confirm Patience as having some sort of staying power. Whether he loses here or wins here, don't expect Patience to do much for another couple years when he comes to make a big splash again.

Predictions

Symbol is probably the weakest player in the whole Ro.8. Deprived of team support, and lacking any kind of results that could excite his fans, it's difficult to see where he can go from here. He looked to be the weakest player in the whole of Code S during the Ro.32 groups, but a decent run here could potentially get a few teams interested. He was, after all, one of the best zergs in Wings of Liberty history, and while it's been a good time since, there'll always be people hoping that the magic will come back. More likely, though, Patience crushes him in a one sided series.

Patience 2 - 0 Symbol

aLive vs Ryung

Match three features two players whose histories in Starcraft 2 date back all the way to 2010. Both players carved out solid niches for themselves in Wings of Liberty—aLive with his success at foreign events, and Ryung with his mastery of TvT. aLive’s IPL 4 title crowned a period where he was among the most well-rounded terrans in Korea, and both players reached the GSL semifinals in 2012. However, the changes wrought by the arrival of the KeSPA brigade and the switch to Heart of the Swarm meant that neither player ever truly excelled in the later years of HotS (although aLive’s qualification for Blizzcon 2013 is often forgotten).

It’s therefore something of a surprise that the two players are back now, still fighting on in Legacy. aLive carved a spot for himself in early LotV terran play by being one of the first players to grasp the new mechanics of the race, especially the use of tankivacs, while Ryung enters this match fresh off a pair of wins in Proleague over herO and soO. This might be a match as old as time—Ryung holds a 21-9 record in games played (10-3 in matches) spread over the past five years—but it’s a match between two players who have picked up decidedly new tricks. As the third and final match between Afreeca and MVP, this is certainly the main event.

Predictions

While aLive certainly has the edge in Legacy results so far, I feel that TvT is his weakest matchup—he is a cumulative 0-5 in his last three televised TvTs. Now granted, those were against Maru, ByuN and TY—arguably the three finest TvTers in the world right now, but his play certainly didn’t impress too much. Ryung on the other hand pushed TY the full distance in Proleague, and could well have taken the win. Both have spotty online records, but I’m going with the former TvT king here.

aLive 0 - 2 Ryung

ByuN vs Seed

Well, on paper this is the biggest mismatch of the four quarterfinals on offer. ByuN was the most feared terran in online competition throughout the infancy of LotV, and while he might have fallen hard in both starleagues (to RagnaroK and Stats in SSL, Curious in Code A), he’s still done enough offline for us to truly believe that he’s a dangerous player once again. Seed on the other hand has looked like a player set to struggle on the fringes of Code A. He might have qualified once more for Code S, but his play has looked pretty uninspired.

The most interesting aspect of this match, though, is the historical precedent which has blighted ByuN throughout his career. Back in GSL 2012 Season 3, ByuN was playing the best Starcraft of his life. Taking the lead 2-1 against Seed in the semifinals, he looked unstoppable. In game 4, ByuN’s hellion harassment tore Seed's mining bases apart, giving him a massive economic lead, before a gargantuan SCV pull looked to land the final blow. It never arrived. Seed held masterfully, delaying again and again with forcefields, before crushing the attack. After throwing game 4, ByuN never looked the same again, and quickly lost the deciding set.

After that, ByuN simply vanished. He went from one of the scariest players in the game to one flirting with the Code A boundary, before dropping off the radar entirely for the whole of HotS. After two GSL semifinals within a year, he hasn't made it past the group stages of Code S since. Now though, he’s back, and the question is; can Seed send ByuN off for another four year holiday? Or will the X-Team terran get his revenge?

Predictions

We haven’t seen much of Seed recently, but unless he’s changed it up entirely ByuN should be easily favoured here. Seed is the kind of deceptive player who’ll try to throw ByuN off his game with wonky timings and unexpected plays, but I can’t see him winning here at all should ByuN play to his usual level.

ByuN 2 - 0 Seed