Same Old Story

In the end, Week 1 kicked off with four results that vaguely mirrored our expectations going in. Excluding MVP’s fighting display against SKT, it was definitely a week that summed up the growing sense that the volatile hierarchy of early 2016 is starting to settle. Jin Air bossed their matches, as did KT against CJ. This week, it’s CJ who have the pleasure of playing twice, and the only consolation there is that it’s come against a couple of the weaker teams (relatively speaking) in MVP and Samsung. It might be early in the round, but a couple of wins here would go a long way to settling their nerves, and setting up a tentative push for a playoff place. Elsewhere, SKT take on Afreeca, while KT are in for a revenge match against Jin Air.

Five Conclusions

1. So close. So, so close. Seven matches into the 2016 season, and MVP are still winless. That’s a bit deceptive though; this is the second match that they could realistically have won 3-0. Back in Round 1, MVP were 2-0 up against KT Rolster after good wins from DeParture and GuMiho against Zest and Leenock. Set 3 was a gripping mirror match between Ryung and TY, before the KT terran slowly wrestled control of the game. Stats and Zest quickly blew through Blaze and GuMiho, as MVP continued to wonder ‘what if’. This time round, only the order of the games changed. Ryung and GuMiho took out soO and MyuNgSiK, sandwiching a loss to INnoVation for DeParture, which could’ve quite easily gone the other way. Dark easily completed the win, beating Forte before taking the ace match over GuMiho. Another painfully close defeat for MVP, and yet again I’m left sitting here thinking that they’re playing well enough that this run of defeats has got to end soon.
   
   
2. Back to 2015 form for Jin Air. Two games against mid-tier opposition, and two victories easily completed. Rogue and Maru were the big winners, both going 2-0 during the week, and Maru’s win over Solar would’ve been particularly celebrated. Solar has looked painfully weak recently, especially after his 0-4 GSL group, but a TvZ win for Maru against top class opposition shouldn’t be taken too lightly. It was especially notable for his meching skyterran composition, against which Solar had no answers. It’s pretty interesting comparing this to ByuL’s win over TY, and looking at the greater efficacy of the CJ zerg (and indeed the Jin Air terran). The only blemish on their record is another sOs loss—it’s been a very underwhelming 4-5 start to Proleague 2016 for the world champion, who’s been dropped / rested this week for Creator. Sparse months are nothing new for him though; after nine games in 2015, he also sat at 4-5. There’s still plenty of time til the season playoffs roll around.
   
   
3. With SKT winning, and Jin Air picking up two, all that was left was for KT to complete the triumvirate sitting at the top. With CJ dropping off massively from their 2014-15 status, the big three now sit comfortably above the rest of the field. Since the start of the season, the record between the top three and the rest is 14-2, with the only two wins coming from Afreeca 3-0 Jin Air and CJ 3-1 KT last round. As well as Samsung and Afreeca have played at times, and as good as herO and ByuL are for CJ, there hasn’t been too much evidence that the monopoly's going to change.
   
   
4. KT's win over CJ was far too easy. Leenock rolled over herO on Lerilak Crest with horizontal spawns, pulling out the ever effective roach / ravager / queen rush, while Stats dealt easily with Bunny, and Zest embarrassed Hush with one of the most one sided games in recent memory. The only consolation for CJ (and worry for KT) was ByuL’s aforementioned win over TY. It must’ve been a case of déjà vu for ByuL; back again in HotS territory, grinding away against a meching opponent, and must’ve surely brought up some long repressed nightmares. On the other hand, that makes it three losses in a row for TY (to Bunny, Maru and ByuL), and a 5-5 record so far this season portrays him as far from the all conquering monster that he’s frequently touted to be.
   
   
5. Dear’s current record in Proleague 2016: 6-2
   The rest of the Samsung squad’s combined record in Proleague 2016: 7-12
   
   Is there another team so wholly dependent on one player? Dear will be looking at the rest of his team wondering if he’ll ever get any support, especially from Solar—the player most hotly tipped before the season kickoff, and one who currently sits on a 2-4 record. If they make it to any of the round playoffs this year, there’s probably only one player to thank.

MVP vs CJ

Blaze <Lerilak Crest> Hush

Last week Hush suffered one of the most one sided losses in the entirety of Proleague history in a PvP against Zest. His next opponent certainly is not in the same category as the KT player, but a defeat in such manner must have effects on the CJ protoss—giving Blaze a mental edge for this match. Both players in this duel are clever fellows, hailed for their sharp build orders, and will have some kind of plan in place. With Hush’s confidence shattered, Blaze should be the favourite here.

Ryung <Orbital Shipyard> herO

Ryung surprised everyone last week with his victory over soO, showing that he still has what it takes to secure a win on the highest level of competition. The SKT zerg wasn’t the last big challenge Ryung has to face however, as such is the nature of Proleague: the next monster already awaits. Even though the map statistically favours Ryung, herO beats him in every other category, from historical score to momentary form, from achievements to prestige. The protoss is the heavy favourite in this match; Ryung hasn’t had any impressive TvPs lately, while herO—although being shaky—was able to beat players like Dream and SpeeD in the near past. As seen last week Ryung can make unlikely things happen however, so don’t count him out fully yet.

GuMiho <Frost> ByuL

Both players had impressive showings last week, but ByuL definitely stole the show compared to GuMiho. He defeated TY’s sky-mech build in typical fashion, picking it apart one by one with vipers and infestors, despite being heavily pressured. GuMiho won his match against MyuNgSiK and played very well against Dark in the ace match, almost securing a sensational victory for MVP over SKT, but his multitasking failed him in the deciding moment and allowed Dark to come back into the game and turn it around. Now these two giants clash on Frost. ByuL should be favoured after what he pulled off last week, but GuMiho is not someone to be taken lightly, now that he's coming back into form.

Pet <Overgrowth> Bunny

Pet returns to Proleague almost exactly one year after we last saw him fielded for SBENU, so welcome back! The zerg showed some potential under his old team, but never really had the huge breakthrough that would catapult him into the spotlight. He’s mostly been playing online cups recently—with average success. Bunny on the other hand is in the best phase of his career at the moment, reaching the Ro16 of Code S. He should be the favourite, but Pet has been a promising ZvT player in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see what he can do in LotV.

Ace: <Dusk Towers>

What options do CJ really have besides ByuL and herO? Sending anyone else out as an ace would be a very questionable move, so we can pretty much settle on those two. For MVP we’ll probably get GuMiho once more. He looked good last week and Dusk Towers should be a nice map for his style.

Predictions

Blaze > Hush
Ryung < herO
GuMiho < ByuL
Pet < Bunny

MVP 1 - 3 CJ

SKT vs Afreeca

INnoVation <Orbital Shipyard> Super

INnoVation hasn’t played many protoss opponents recently—after his loss to Stork in Code A there’s only the victory over sOs in SPL to take into consideration. And honestly that one win over Jin Air’s mad scientist and INnoVation being INnoVation is enough to declare him the heavy favourite over Super, who really hasn’t anything going for him. He had some good online runs recently, but also some miserable failures. He better have a pretty good plan in his mind for this match.

Dark <Dusk Towers> Bomber

Dark destroyed Forte last week and came back from a very bad situation against GuMiho to take two ZvT wins and secure the victory for SKT—there should be no doubt whatsoever, that he is the favourite over Bomber. The terran did surprise us by getting a win against Cure, and Dark was easily defeated by Dream in Code S, but that was a team kill, and it is known that these matches aren’t really an indicator for real strength. Bomber showed he’s still a force to be reckoned with, but Dark is another generation of zerg.

soO <Lerilak Crest> Patience

It is payback time for soO! Last time he met Patience he was dealt a horrible defeat in SSL, so there is justice to be done from the zerg perspective. Unfortunately for soO his record against protoss in the last weeks isn’t all too great, losing three out of his four last series. Patience himself isn’t in the same form as he was during SSL either however, losing online to Soulkey and even the European zerg Starbuck. With both players in sub optimal condition this might very well be about who is able to make less mistakes. soO is more experienced and should be slightly favoured, but after what happened against Ryung last week we really can’t be sure.

Dream <King Sejong Station> Curious

Dream and Curious played in the same Code S group only a few days ago, but avoided each other there—which is unfortunate for Curious, as he was eliminated, while Dream advanced into the next round. He beat Dark and Losira on the way, revealing information to Curious on the one side, but striking fear into his heart as well. Curious certainly is a strong player and we have learned in the past to never count him out, but Dream is on a roll against zerg and should be victorious.

Ace: <Overgrowth>

SKT sent out Dark on Overgrowth for the ace against MVP, a choice that is viable against Afreeca as well, for their ace is likely going to be a terran—with people like aLive, Bomber and KeeN sitting on the bench. Of course the R1 champions have all the freedom in the world regarding the ace match, with monsters like INnoVation, Dream and Classic ready to rock and roll at Coach Choi’s command.

Predictions

INnoVation > Super
Dark > Bomber
soO > Patience

SKT 3 - 0 Afreeca

KT vs Jin Air

TY <Overgrowth> Trap

Jin Air are fielding a courageous line-up this week, leaving sOs on the bench. Instead they’re sending out Trap and Creator, with the first facing the terran monster that is TY. The KT terran lost to Dear in Code S on the weekend, but should still be solid enough to be considered the favourite. Trap hasn’t had great results against terrans lately, but more importantly he has already lost three series against TY in LotV, only winning their first meeting last December. TY has the skills and the mental edge.

Losira <Orbital Shipyard> Creator

Losira’s spirits should be up high after reaching the Code S quarterfinals in a somewhat surprising manner, as he was not really expected to survive his group. His opponent can only dream of a success like that at the moment—we haven’t heard or seen much of Creator, since he joined Jin Air and only few people even expected him to be fielded this round. It’ll be interesting to see what he can come up with, and why he and Trap have been chosen to play over sOs this week. So even though there has to be a plan in place—why field him otherwise?—Creator surely is the underdog here.

Zest <King Sejong Station> Rogue

Zest and Rogue, probably one the hottest match-ups you can get right now and has been heavily contended in the past, with both trading wins and losses quite evenly—Zest is ahead 8-6 at the moment. However it was Rogue who took first blood in LotV not long ago, using some sneaky baneling drops to take the decisive game 7 in their playoffs match. King Sejong Station is a familiar battleground for both, but with these two you never know what exactly you’ll get—well, apart from great entertainment. Zest is in slightly better form right now, so the advantage should go to him, but of course that doesn’t mean much against Rogue.

Stats <Dusk Towers> Maru

Jin Air’s line-up certainly is very risky and as a result we might not even get to Stats against Maru, which is a shame for the boys in green. As good as the SSL finalist is at the moment, Maru seems to be almost unstoppable in Proleague—being 10-2 this season so far. Additionally the terran is 13-8 against Stats, winning the last six duels they had (last time he lost to Stats was in 2014), and notably smashed him with ease when the two met in the playoffs.. With Stats’ attention likely dominated by his unsuccessful PvZ final against Dark, it’s not clear how ready he’ll be for Maru tonight (or indeed his mental shape after such a loss). The Jin Air terran is definitely the favourite in this one.

Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

Jin Air certainly has a choice to make here: Of course Maru is probably the first player they think about, but Rogue or even sOs—if available on the night—are also worthwhile options. KT will probably send either Zest or TY, who have been their choices over the course of the season so far—and with their form, why change that up?

Predictions

TY > Trap
Losira > Creator
Zest > Rogue

KT 3 - 0 Jin Air

CJ vs Samsung

ByuL <King Sejong Station> BrAvO

ByuL showed last week that the tactics and skills he used against mech in HotS with such huge success still work against terran in LotV, which is bad news for BrAvO, an excellent mech user in the last expansion. Unfortunately we haven’t seen anything impressive from him in LotV, but being fielded again may be a sign of improvement. Going up against ByuL of all people is pretty bad luck however, as his usual playstyle is much harder to pull off against this zerg. He’s going into this as the clear underdog.

RagnaroK <Frost> Hurricane

This is an odd one. RagnaroK couldn’t show great results after his initial success in SSL, when LotV was still a bit fresher and his roach/ravager/nydus style was extremely strong, while Hurricane has moments of greatness from time to time, but is very inconsistent. None of them had any good results in recent times: Hurricane lost to horror and DeParture in the last PvZ matches he played, RagnaroK was defeated by Patience and Trap. While Rag certainly prefers the aggressive route, Hurricane is known for playing some really solid macro, if he gets there.

herO <Orbital Shipyard> Dear

Next up is a delicacy for protoss fans, as both herO and Dear are on top of their game right now when it comes to the mirror match-up. Both have recently taken wins over beasts such as sOs and qualified for the quarterfinals of Code S as well. The CJ protoss has had the upper hand against Dear historically, but the Samsung player is on a hot streak right now, looking as good as he did in his prime. Naming a favourite is really hard for this win, but let’s go with Dear by the slightest margin.

Bunny <Dusk Towers> Reality

Bunny’s surprising Code S run ended last weekend, but he put on another good showing and sent a sign out into the world: He’s here to stay and is ready to take up the responsibility of being CJ’s sole terran player. He’s facing a hard opponent however, as Reality is in very good TvT form at the moment. CJ and Bunny are in a tough spot once more and Reality might be the one to close this match out.

Ace: <Lerilak Crest>

Everyone knows the story by now: It’s either herO or ByuL for CJ, while SAMSUNG will likely send out their best player Dear. The map is not all too protoss friendly however, if you believe the statistics, so there is the possibility of sending Solar or Reality.

Predictions

ByuL > BrAvO
RagnaroK < Hurricane
herO < Dear
Bunny < Reality

CJ 1 - 3 Samsung