Week 6 Recap

by banjoetheredskin

One of the quickest weeks this season brought a number of surprises, and the playoff picture became even more muddled with a few upsets thrown into the equation. KT and Jin Air swept CJ and MVP, respectively, while SKT and Samsung dished out 3-1 defeats to Prime and Sbenu, respectively. Yes, Prime did win a game. KeeN finally broke his 6-game skid and took a win over Impact. Although it was not the confidence boost the former Axiom Zerg was looking for, the win for SKT solidified their position in first place, earning them a direct seed into the gold match. KT, with their unexpected but laudable clobbering of CJ, also locked themselves in, claiming second place and a bye into the silver match.




The larger story of the week was one in the making since Week 1. CJ Entus came into the round as the hottest team with each of the best players of the entire Zerg and Protoss race at the time, assets who contributed heavily to their Round 2 championship. But after Week 3, CJ had already dropped down to 1-2. After a painful ace loss to MVP, a humbling loss to Sbenu, and an embarrassing collapse under KT, CJ are now in the most difficult position to even make the playoffs. Despite the universal respect ByuL is gaining with his success in GSL, he was unable to deliver a critical win against Zest. What was a matchup heavily favored for herO turned into a disastrous display of poor army positioning and control that snowballed too quickly for the CJ Protoss to recover. The two most important players on the team lacked the clutch factor that until this point has defined their status as one of the best teams.

Meanwhile, at camp Sbenu, a 3-2 start that was shaping up to be a stake in the playoff picture devolved into dire straits with an under-performance against Samsung Galaxy. Sbenu, as a team attempting to prove they are more than just an average team with their roster overhaul, cannot lose to a habitually middling team. Many have sung the praise of Curious for having made it to the semifinals of GSL, especially with his excellent opponent-specific preparation, so faltering to Reality's mech is hardly excusable. The TvT veteran MMA may not be quite as well-versed in the modern mech and bio styles, but his foundation ought to have made him a much better match for Journey. Although jjakji would not have been necessarily favored against the Terran mirror pundit BrAvO, he worked himself into a great position early in the game. But then he threw it so hard and so quickly that a track and field coach was on the Sbenu bench by the end of the game. The Stylish Shoe Squad are in a similar position to CJ in that they desperately need their players to get back up to par if they want a shot at the playoffs.




The final bit of chastising Week 6 demands is Choya's decision to play MarineKing [W/N: fine, to play him...on Cactus Valley]. The map is slightly Terran-favored, so sure, give him all the advantages he can get when he's playing this poorly. But that's not how it works in Proleague. There is a long history of maps that favored a race, and the vast majority of the time they saw mirror matches. If there is anything MarineKing needs to avoid, it's TvT. The poor bastard ended up playing Maru. Now, whether it's on MarineKing or Choya for his strategy choice, CC first against the most aggressive Terran in the world, doesn't really matter. That's just absurd. MVP, too, have managed to work themselves into a rough spot to make the playoffs as a result of some crucial shortcomings.

Not to be entirely negative, credit must be given where credit is due. The Samsung Terrans rose to the occasion against the more experienced Sbenu lineup. Zest crafted a nasty build to take care of ByuL on the Zerg-friendly Expedition Lost, and having the 3-0 sealed prevented Bbyong from toasting Life with hellbats to force an ace match. Trap did his homework and had the perfect counter-play to DeParture's now predictable burrowed roach use, while Rogue developed some clever mind games to freely take a gold base and maintain that edge to shut down YongHwa's allin with ease, earning the 3-0 for Jin Air. Because Samsung and Jin Air both came through against their fringe opponents, they wound up in a funny position in the standings that will make the final push for third and fourth places a wild one filled with some brain-twisting scenarios. We've outlined them for you below.

Week 7: Counting Down

by banjoetheredskin

We have made sure to explain in great detail exactly how close

• SKT have first place secured. They will play in the gold match on the 4th of July.
  
• KT have second place secured. They will play in the silver match on the 30th of June.

Ties for map differential (when two teams have the same match record and +/- map score) go to the winner of the head-to-head match between the two tied teams. Complaints about miscalculations go to Zealously.

CJ can make the playoffs if

• they beat Prime 3-0 and SKT 3-0 Sbenu and KT beat MVP and and Jin Air beat Samsung or Samsung 3-0 Jin Air

As a punishment for losing to KT 0-3, CJ must now face the most ridiculous and stringent conditions out of all the teams to earn their spot in the bronze match. However, beating Prime 3-0 has been no tall order this season, and it's already been done thrice just this round. Assuming CJ had already done the math as well, it's not surprising to see they fielded their strongest three players first. And it paid off—each player drew favorable matchups. They should be pleased to have Creator's worst (winless) matchup against the current best Zerg, ByuL, YoDa's worst (also winless) matchup against herO, and BBoongBBoong as their obstacles to the requisite sweep. While CJ can definitely manage their part in securing that coveted fourth place, the stars will really have to align for the other scenarios to work in their favor.

MVP can make the playoffs if

• they beat KT and SKT beat Sbenu

MVP on the surface don't seem to have an immensely difficult path to the playoffs. SKT can certainly beat Sbenu, and MVP have beaten KT before. The lineup is about as close as it could be, and it looks like despite the major disadvantage they have with a two map penalty hurting their differential, they could still pull it out. Losira will need to be wary of TY's antics, as he showed last week against Solar he still has tricks up his sleeve, but Losira is also a player who could himself whip out a special build. HerO against Life will be challenging to say the least, but Echo is a map on which HerO seems quite comfortable, so that could work to his advantage. GuMiho beat Zest in the famous monitor "malfunction" game last season with some skillful drop tactics, and Vaani is a good map for him to try to duplicate the effort. Zest is not to be underestimated, though, and he too will pose a major threat to MVP's chances. While many may be singing praises of Flash's TvP after beating herO last week, he has not yet proven that he corrected the flaws in his play. YongHwa, on a map favored for Protoss, is entirely capable of beating Flash. Overall, MVP aren't in too bad of a position, especially if they stay on the right track by not playing MarineKing should it reach the ace.




Samsung can make the playoffs if

• they beat Jin Air
  OR
  
• they lose 2-3 to Jin Air and SKT 3-0 Sbenu and KT beat MVP and Prime beat CJ or CJ 3-2 Prime

Samsung have consistently rotated their lineup throughout the season to the point where it's hard to determine in whom they have the most confidence. But this week's group of four is reflective of recent performance, and it's no wonder, considering they obviously want their best chances to beat someone new (They've only beaten MVP, Prime, and Startale/Sbenu-yoe this season). Given that they are putting faith in the players who have looked the best recently, they also arranged the lineup, albeit somewhat predictably, to maximize their strengths. Dear has beaten Maru before, so it's not out of the realms to think he could manage it again. Journey's TvP remains a mystery, at only 1-1, but he can't be favored against sOs. BrAvO is a TvT specialist, so it's not ideal to have drawn a ZvT phenom in Rogue. Reality doesn't have much to show for his TvT, so there isn't a favorite between him and Cure. Samsung have the tools to win here, but if they don't, then it's unlikely the outcome will still have them through to the playoffs.

Jin Air can make the playoffs if

• they beat Samsung
  OR
  
• they lose to Samsung by a score of 1-3 or 2-3 and SKT 3-0 Sbenu and KT beat MVP and Prime beat CJ or CJ beat Prime by a score of 3-1 or 3-2

Jin Air probably have the easiest task ahead of them, as they have been able to beat Samsung already twice this season and once again came out with an advantage in the lineups. However, attesting to Samsung's resilience, both matches lasted all five sets. Even this time, it is far from a lock for Jin Air. Unquestionably Maru still has some of the best TvP in the world, and Dear is not on the caliber of herO or Rain to give pause for his chances. sOs should in all likelihood handle Journey with either an sOs-esque build or deflection of an aggressive build. They smartly played Rogue on Cactus Valley to all but ensure he would meet a Terran, and of the Terrans on Samsung BrAvO has some of the weakest TvZ. Cure has not looked great in TvT, but that he is on Vaani again appears to be aiming for a mirror. Whether or not it was intentional, he got it, and Reality will be a tough but beatable opponent.

Sbenu can make the playoffs if

• they beat SKT
  OR
  
• they lose to SKT by a score of 1-3 or 2-3 and Jin Air beat Samsung or Samsung 3-0 Jin Airand KT beat MVP
  OR
  
• they lose 0-3 to SKT and Jin Air beat Samsung by a score of 3-1 or 3-0 and KT beat MVP and CJ beat Prime by a score of 3-1 or 3-2 or Prime beat CJ

Sbenu are unlucky enough to have to play SKT, the one undefeated team, in their make it-or-break it playoff bid. Throughout the round, though, Sbenu's lineup improvements have displayed a greater consistency and overall ability to win matches without Life. Bomber's TvZ, as far as he's shown, is still stuck in 2012, but he manages to make it work more times than it logically should. Dark will be keen to that, but will need to play a style he is slightly less fearsome with, as Bomber's likely incorporation of tanks will force Dark away from his signature roach baneling corruptor composition into the standard muta/ling/baneling. MyuNgSiK, through his GSL run and gradual improvement in Proleague has shown that he excels at preparing for his opponents, and already has a reputation for manufacturing bizarrely successful builds, especially in PvZ. He is fortunate to have drawn soO's worst matchup, but what appears to be a resurgence by the SKT Zerg does not mean MyuNgSiK will have the upper hand. Although DongRaeGu has tallied two wins against Protoss already, neither was against a player as absolutely terrifying in PvZ as Classic. Vaani may be one of the better maps for Zerg against Protoss with certain builds, but that should by far be the toughest matchup for Sbenu. The fourth set features two players who are relatively bad at TvT. Dream might be great at everything else, but he has given no reason to think that his abilities in the mirror have improved since Maru slapped him around at the S2SL Season 1 finals. jjakji, after a long stretch with very few results to speak of, lost a TvT last week against BrAvO, which isn't particularly shameful. As the overall better player, Dream should still win. Sbenu are close to fulfilling their intentions of recovering their image, and grabbing a playoff spot will go a long way in establishing them (again) as one of the better teams in Proleague.