After fairly predictable results in the two opening groups, WCS returns tonight with a perhaps much more volatile one. Koreans have, though not without difficulty, set a 100% advancement record. That might change today though as one of the more beatable ones in viOLet is put against a group of talented foreigners whose current skill level is more or less shrouded in... mystery.
One of the beautiful things about the newly rebooted WCS system is the conveyor belt of championship hopefuls that it has brought into the spotlight. The challenger system last year tended to preserve the status quo of the elite, rather than encouraging the development of fresh blood, so it’s been great to see new players rise to the occasion this year. Take Mystery, for example, who has the distinction of being the first amateur player to play in WCS this year. The Chinese protoss stormed to the semifinals of the GPL earlier this year to earn his spot, and looked mighty impressive in the process. In the fine tradition of Chinese Protosses, his forte lies in his highly aggressive play. He breezed past the newly minted MacSed.Prime in the quarterfinals, but the highlight of the whole tournament came in the semifinals, where he unfortunately fell to TooDming after pushing him the full distance. He’s always been on the verge of breaking through in the Chinese scene (two Ro8s in the GPL last year, followed by this season’s breakthrough into the top 4), and in his first foreign LAN tournament, it’s going to be fun to see if he can go even further.
Ret, on the other hand, is one of the most experienced professionals in the foreign scene. The Liquid Zerg has fallen on tough times though since his heyday in 2012, and this is his first appearance in WCS Premier League for a whole two years. However, while Heart of the Swarm hasn’t been kind to the Dutchman as a whole, there has always been the occasional spark reminding us of what used to be, and that’s exactly what we saw in Challenger this season. Welmu’s run in Season 1 was viewed as disappointing; falling out in last place in his group to Has, and he was tipped to make a deeper run this time round. Ret put a firm stop to that though, halting his WCS malaise. In Premier League, though, his opponents are some of the toughest of their respective races in the foreign scene—possibly the second best Terran in Europe at the moment, alongside the most impressive Protoss at the recent Chinese finals and the Korean Zerg lying in wait on the opposite side of the bracket. While Ret’s ZvZ is statistically his finest matchup, with a very respectable 58% win rate in HotS, it drops to an awful 2-13 record against our Korean overlords. Qualifying for Premier is a laudable achievement in itself given his recent struggles, but it’s only going to get tougher from here.
While viOLet is comfortably the most decorated competitor in Group C, he also comes into this season with the most to prove. In 2012, he seemed like a potential world beater; another in the long line of Koreans plundering the foreign scene’s rich seam of tournaments. So while his issues in WCS 2013 were incredibly disappointing to us as viewers, it’s impossible to overstate just how distressing they must have been to a player looking to push on into the top echelons of the game. His career ground to a halt. Two successful seasons qualifying for the Round of 16 were matched by two forfeits due to visa issues, while he simply didn’t bother with the third. Even now, after the US Government finally gave him the green light, it simply looks like time has passed him by. There have been flashes of his old dominance (notably his hat-trick of top 4 finishes at MLG and Red Bull events last year), but it’s been a long wait for a follow up to his title at the MLG Spring Arena three years ago. If viOLet plays at his best though, there are very few here who have a chance of stopping him. It’s been long enough now, and viOLet will be more aware than most of the time slipping through his fingers.
It’s difficult to argue that Korean dominance is absolute in Starcraft. Exactly one foreigner has won a Premier tournament since 2013; exactly one foreigner made it to Blizzcon in 2013 and 2014 combined, and the rout looks set to continue this year. So it’s interesting that while Koreans of all races are rightly respected and feared, there’s been no more evocative description in the past 5 years than ‘Korean Terran’. Historically, we’ve had Protosses bearing the foreigner torch, as well as hordes of Zergs in Wings of Liberty, but not since Jinro has a foreign terran truly captured the hearts and expectations of the fans. ‘Korean Terran’ is more than a qualifier; it’s a symbol of dominance. So it’s interesting that some foreigners are rising to the challenge. Bunny has long excelled in Europe, but has started to push on against the world scene as well. His title at Gfinity G3 last year was richly deserved, and he was unfortunate to be edged out by Polt in the semifinals of WCS Season 1 (in fact, he was the only foreigner to take a map off a Korean at the offline event). Behind him, MarineLord stands with a real possibility of becoming 2015’s breakout hit. The French Terran had a fruitful 2014 out of the spotlight, hoovering up trophies in the European online scene, and he’s kicked on this year—his defeat of Happy in Challenger has granted him his debut spot in Premier. Statistically, he has a strong 60%+ winrate in his matchups against protoss and zerg, and while his records in the mirror matchup are comparatively weak, it appears that he may have found solutions to his problems given the ease with which he dealt with Happy. He'll have been bitterly disappointed by his Round of 32 finish at Dreamhack: Tours earlier this month, knocked out by his fellow countryman Dayshi on home soil, and he'll be looking to go further here tonight.
Predictions
Frankly, a lot of this group hinges on viOLet. If he comes to play at a level even remotely near to his best, then he should have no issues at all here. However, if he plays like he did last season, when he was easily eliminated in two 2-0s from MaNa and Bunny, then the group starts to look pretty worrying for him. The other big question is whether Mystery can handle the pressure of his first foreign LAN, as well as if he can trade off his lower profile compared to the rest of the group. As strong and experienced as MarineLord and Ret are, I’m putting my faith in Asia for this one.
Mystery > Ret viOLet > MarineLord Ret < MarineLord Mystery < viOLet Mystery > MarineLord
"(Violet) However, if he plays like he did last season, when he was easily eliminated in two 2-0s from MaNa and Bunny, then the group starts to look pretty worrying for him."
That's wrong, he got 2-0'd by me and 2-1'd by Major in the losers match.
On May 23 2015 22:07 Liquid`MaNa wrote: "(Violet) However, if he plays like he did last season, when he was easily eliminated in two 2-0s from MaNa and Bunny, then the group starts to look pretty worrying for him."
That's wrong, he got 2-0'd by me and 2-1'd by Major in the losers match.
No, you 2-0'd him, then viOlet 2-1'd Major then he got 2-0'd by Bunny.
On May 23 2015 22:07 Liquid`MaNa wrote: "(Violet) However, if he plays like he did last season, when he was easily eliminated in two 2-0s from MaNa and Bunny, then the group starts to look pretty worrying for him."
That's wrong, he got 2-0'd by me and 2-1'd by Major in the losers match.
No, you 2-0'd him, then viOlet 2-1'd Major then he got 2-0'd by Bunny.
He'll have been bitterly disappointed by his Round of 32 finish at Dreamhack: Tours earlier this month, knocked out by his fellow countryman Dayshi on home soil, and he'll be looking to go further here tonight.
He'll have been bitterly disappointed by his Round of 32 finish at Dreamhack: Tours earlier this month, knocked out by his fellow countryman Dayshi on home soil, and he'll be looking to go further here tonight.
It was Lilbow, not Dayshi.
And MlorD will qualify easily.
I don't even know why I wrote Dayshi, I was thinking Lilbow :[
On May 23 2015 23:03 KingAlphard wrote: ahah no way marinelord loses to this "mystery" guy. I heard he doesn't even use control groups.
Well he is protoss so he won't need control groups. (sarcasm) But I agree that Mlord should be 1st or 2nd in this group (I want Ret to go through though, but that's most likely just a fantasy.)
On May 23 2015 22:07 Liquid`MaNa wrote: "(Violet) However, if he plays like he did last season, when he was easily eliminated in two 2-0s from MaNa and Bunny, then the group starts to look pretty worrying for him."
That's wrong, he got 2-0'd by me and 2-1'd by Major in the losers match.
No, you 2-0'd him, then viOlet 2-1'd Major then he got 2-0'd by Bunny.
Bio/Mech? I'm wondering what he will show against the roach/hydra composition that viOlet is very good with. Hopefully at least he will not play muta-ling-bane in this series
On May 24 2015 02:00 Alucen-Will- wrote: Do we know about MarineLord's TvZ tendencies?
Bio/Mech? I'm wondering what he will show against the roach/hydra composition that viOlet is very good with. Hopefully at least he will not play muta-ling-bane in this series
He said in an interview at Dreamhack Tours that he was focusing on playing mech in TvZ for the WCS and was on a winning streak against koreans like True in custom games, while playing mech style. I guess you have your answer !
On May 24 2015 02:00 Alucen-Will- wrote: Do we know about MarineLord's TvZ tendencies?
Bio/Mech? I'm wondering what he will show against the roach/hydra composition that viOlet is very good with. Hopefully at least he will not play muta-ling-bane in this series
He said in an interview at Dreamhack Tours that he was focusing on playing mech in TvZ for the WCS and was on a winning streak against koreans like True in custom games, while playing mech style. I guess you have your answer !
Thanks a lot for the info, and I imagine a lot of his build choices will be dependent on the map draw. I'm hoping we get at least 1-2 roach/hydra games from viOlet. If there is one redeeming quality about viOlet in current form, it is the unique use of that strategy. For the most part, he feels like a lost cause in terms of relevance.
On May 24 2015 10:12 fezvez wrote: This prediction from the staff once again! You guys are absolutely incredible (in the literal sense of the word, actually)
On May 24 2015 16:52 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: TL Writers, you fucking suck at preditions. I think you've been conmpletely wrong more than you've ever been completely right.
1. Wait for the TL prediction 2. Vote the opposite 3. ??? 4. Profit!
On May 24 2015 01:02 Arschratte wrote: i bet on ret
On May 24 2015 16:52 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: TL Writers, you fucking suck at preditions. I think you've been conmpletely wrong more than you've ever been completely right.
The chance of 2/2 is like 10%, typically it's 30% 1/2 and 60% 0/2.
On May 24 2015 16:52 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: TL Writers, you fucking suck at preditions. I think you've been conmpletely wrong more than you've ever been completely right.
The chance of 2/2 is like 10%, typically it's 30% 1/2 and 60% 0/2.
Please refrain from doing math in the near future.
On May 24 2015 16:52 SetGuitarsToKill wrote: TL Writers, you fucking suck at preditions. I think you've been conmpletely wrong more than you've ever been completely right.
The chance of 2/2 is like 10%, typically it's 30% 1/2 and 60% 0/2.
If everyone has a 50/50 chance, you have a 17% chance of picking the correct two and a 17% chance of picking the wrong two, with 2/3 of the time being 1 correct and 1 wrong. However, since TL writers pick the players they think will win, the chance of getting two right is probably higher and both wrong is much less likely.
On May 25 2015 00:09 The_Templar wrote: However, since TL writers pick the players they think will win, the chance of getting two right is probably higher and both wrong is much less likely.
On May 25 2015 00:09 The_Templar wrote: However, since TL writers pick the players they think will win, the chance of getting two right is probably higher and both wrong is much less likely.
It depends on which players you like tbf :[
Statistics in the matchups, and in individual confrontations. Current form on ladder and/or online tournaments. When writing a preview you don't only pick the players you like.
The chance of getting the two players wrong is very unlikely when you take all that into account.
EPT
Mystery, 
Ret, 
MarineLorD
