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On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O Well they're all very decently priced and are very solid players who will probably be >50% WR, so it doesn't surprise me much. I'm much more surprised by so few people picking Solar and/or Flash.
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On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O trap for 2 is really good
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On February 28 2015 23:22 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O Well they're all very decently priced and are very solid players who will probably be >50% WR, so it doesn't surprise me much. I'm much more surprised by so few people picking Solar and/or Flash. Trap is pretty much a mandatory pick, especially for a week 1. He's 2 points, which is the lowest price for players on SKT/JAGW/KT, he's playing week 1 against someone he can beat, and he actually looks amazing right now (see IEM qualifier). I would have picked Trap if he was 4, even. Anyone who doesn't have Trap on their team is doing something wrong!
Dream is also a nice pick, but he's not the greatest week 1 pick... While I think he's absolutely favored against Keen, I doubt he'll actually be playing. So, he only gets 2 points this week instead. But, because he's likely to be playing in the future matches, and he's still very cheap (4), I think it's still a good idea to get him now. His price is likely to just go up...
Stats is also one of the best Protoss players right now, so it's no surprise to see people pick him up for only 6. I imagine he'll be played every week, with maybe Flash being the switched out player for the occasional TY.
Regarding Flash and Solar... While I think they are both good picks, I have my doubts whether or not they will be bringing in a huge points like Dark or Rogue did. They were the two most cost-INEFFICIENT players last PL, with Solar actually managing to go negative. That like, NEVER happens, and certainly not with a player with an initial cost of 8. But Solar looked pretty good when he played a couple nights ago, so I think he has potential to be... better than before... But it's not something I can count on. Flash? Eh, he might do okay. I think he will get 15 points, which is just a bit below the ideal ratio of points/cost.
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I think Solar is a pretty good pick because he will be featured in a lot of ace matches and should be rounding into form. But at the same time I don't think Samsung will get to a lot of ace matches. At least not against more than 2-3 of the teams. With how strong KT is now I'm not sure whether Zest or Life will be the ace picks so I chose against picking them. And by the same logic I think they won't get to many ace games with such a strong lineup unless it's against a team like SKT or JinAir.
redeem team 3.0
Main Team 4 Dream 2 First (captain) 6 Flash 5 soO 6 Stats 2 Trap 5 KT Rolster
Anti Team 3 Bomber 4 Hush 6 MarineKing
I'm pretty happy with my main team but I'm unsure about my anti team. I just hope MK is still as useless in any matchup that isn't TvP.
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On March 01 2015 00:24 Blargh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 23:22 OtherWorld wrote:On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O Well they're all very decently priced and are very solid players who will probably be >50% WR, so it doesn't surprise me much. I'm much more surprised by so few people picking Solar and/or Flash. Trap is pretty much a mandatory pick, especially for a week 1. He's 2 points, which is the lowest price for players on SKT/JAGW/KT, he's playing week 1 against someone he can beat, and he actually looks amazing right now (see IEM qualifier). I would have picked Trap if he was 4, even. Anyone who doesn't have Trap on their team is doing something wrong! Dream is also a nice pick, but he's not the greatest week 1 pick... While I think he's absolutely favored against Keen, I doubt he'll actually be playing. So, he only gets 2 points this week instead. But, because he's likely to be playing in the future matches, and he's still very cheap (4), I think it's still a good idea to get him now. His price is likely to just go up... Stats is also one of the best Protoss players right now, so it's no surprise to see people pick him up for only 6. I imagine he'll be played every week, with maybe Flash being the switched out player for the occasional TY. Regarding Flash and Solar... While I think they are both good picks, I have my doubts whether or not they will be bringing in a huge points like Dark or Rogue did. They were the two most cost-INEFFICIENT players last PL, with Solar actually managing to go negative. That like, NEVER happens, and certainly not with a player with an initial cost of 8. But Solar looked pretty good when he played a couple nights ago, so I think he has potential to be... better than before... But it's not something I can count on. Flash? Eh, he might do okay. I think he will get 15 points, which is just a bit below the ideal ratio of points/cost. I agree about Trap and Dream. As for Stats well yeah I hesitated to put him on my team instead of Flash, but I think that Ryu Won won't dare to bench Flash even once while Stats will probably be part of a turnover with TY to assist a Life/Flash/Zest core. And I can't believe Solar and Flash won't do well this round. They are players who are top-tiers of their respective race, and while they can have a bad period of a month or two I don't think that will extend to this round. I even expect Flash to go 7-0 or 6-1 tbh.
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On February 28 2015 23:22 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O Well they're all very decently priced and are very solid players who will probably be >50% WR, so it doesn't surprise me much. I'm much more surprised by so few people picking Solar and/or Flash.
You are? After their first round and their week 1 opponents they're 6 points. Their pricing surprised me the most.
Neither should be more than 5.
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On March 01 2015 00:39 FrostedMiniWheats wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 23:22 OtherWorld wrote:On February 28 2015 23:16 dazed25 wrote: Seems like Trap, Dream, and Stats are the popular value picks in this thread :O Well they're all very decently priced and are very solid players who will probably be >50% WR, so it doesn't surprise me much. I'm much more surprised by so few people picking Solar and/or Flash. You are? After their first round and their week 1 opponents they're 6 points. Their pricing surprised me the most. Neither should be more than 5. I dunno, Flash is pretty much guaranteed to play every week and judging from Round 1 Solar is Khan's ace no matter what. Additionally I think they'll both be back in form soon, but I don't know if lichter choses the prizes purely based on Round 1's results and the expected playtime of the players or if individual leagues' results factor in as well.
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I think people are forgetting to mention soO who's a VERY good player, on the best team, for 5 points and gets a YoDa out of everyone for his first game.
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your Country52797 Posts
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are you sure about cure on the anti? i mean he doesn't play in week one, but still..^^
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your Country52797 Posts
On March 01 2015 01:10 The_Red_Viper wrote:are you sure about cure on the anti? i mean he doesn't play in week one, but still..^^ I know it's a risk, but it's offset by getting two players that are pretty likely to win 0 games this round on a weak team.
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That's a really nice looking team. Leenock and Solar should be featured in ace matches, while soO and Trap seem like really great value picks. Cure on anti seems crazy though. I'd totally go for Creator or Yongwha if I wanted to go for a 7 pointer.
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your Country52797 Posts
On March 01 2015 01:31 dazed25 wrote:That's a really nice looking team. Leenock and Solar should be featured in ace matches, while soO and Trap seem like really great value picks. Cure on anti seems crazy though. I'd totally go for Creator or Yongwha if I wanted to go for a 7 pointer. I play a very trade-heavy style, and Creator and YongHwa have decent chances of winning their matches this week (yes, Creator has a chance of beating INnoVation). So I can trade Cure away if it's looking like he'll win next week. I doubt he will win an ace match this week for several reasons.
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Team Low Expectations 2.0
Main Team 4 Dream 6 Flash (captain) 3 KeeN 5 San 5 soO 2 Trap 5 KT Rolster
Anti Team 5 Classic 6 MarineKing 2 TaeJa
Revamped some things. Dream for TY because he's likely to see play more often. KeeN for Action because KeeN is very solid and likely to be a regular for Prime. Trap for Terminator because that's a steal and he has a solid shot at winning on day 1. soO for Yoda because he's likely to win the match between them. San for Rogue to keep the budget in check and because I think he'll be solid for ST-Y. Switched YongHwa for MarineKing because I think YongHwa won't be fielded as often but have a better winrate.
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Kuolleiden Maa
Main Team 7 ByuL (captain) 6 Rogue 6 Stats 4 Dream 3 Shine 2 Trap 2 StarTale + YFW ![[image loading]](http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/images2/6/60/StYoeLogo_std.png)
Anti Team 6 Dear 6 MarineKing 1 Stork
Thought on the picks: Main Team 7 ByuL (captain) -went 5-3 last round, a staple of CJ and a potential ace player. With a 3 points/cost ratio (P/C) he's one of the best "bang for your buck" players this round. 6 Rogue -a solid 4-2 last round, plays almost all the time and has a P/C ratio of 3. JIN will win a lot which means additional points just from being on the right team. 6 Stats -similar to Rogue; 4-1 wins last round, will play in most matches and has one of the most impressive win ratios of last round. P/C ratio of 2.83 which is still awesome. 4 Dream -66% wins, P/C ratio of 3, semifinalist of NSSL and gets points from SKT winning even if he does not play. Easy pick... 3 Shine -the only "meh"-pick in my team. Not because he is bad value (P/C ratio of 2.67, best among the 3 pointers) but rather because he plays another player of my team during the first week so I'll get a maximum of 4 points out of 2 picks which is generally considered to be bad. Still 2-1 win rate and will probably get enough playtime on SAM. 2 Trap -P/C ratio of 4 which is insane. 1-1 last round so we'll see how much playtime he actually gets. Even without that he'll get enough just from JIN winning. 2 StarTale + YFW -STY was awesome last round but with Life gone... still a pretty good pickup at 2 points. Could/should win against teams like PRM, SAM and MVP so probably good value. 5 P/C ratio last round.
Anti Team 6 Dear -What? Dear? The only really good player on SAM? Yes, indeed. Only a meager 9 points last round, 1.5 P/C ratio, 3-3 in games and plays Maru in the first week. 6 MarineKing -a solid 22% winrate last round and tends to crack under pressure. 1.5 P/C ratio... 1 Stork -SAM seems to be the worst time at the moment so I doubt that he'll get more than 1-2 points.
A couple of other good value players for the main team can be found here which is an excerpt from the spreadsheet I'm using for FPL, sorted by Price per Cost (P/C). Generally speaking you want players with >2.5 on your main team and players with <1.5 on your anti. Other important parts to consider are whether they play in the first week and whether they have a realistic chance to win their match. Another important parts are Games per Cost (G/P) which indicates how much playtime they will probably see. While the number of matches played is not a guarantee for points it increases their chance of being able to earn points for your team. Everything >=0.75 can be considered as a solid pick. Since this is only the second round the stats are not too accurate, so it's wise to take everything with a grain of salt and factor in the things that have changes since the last round (Life to KT, etc.).
If you're interested in more in-depth discussion regarding team picks, trading and stuff like that in the future you can send me a PM. I'm always looking for knowledgeable people who put some amount of thought into their picks and like to share/discuss their ideas.
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Damnit, I changed my mind, should probably look at it a bit more =P
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