The first group of the Ro16 consists of two former champions and two challengers that have yet to taste the quarterfinals. Will INnoVation, the defending champion, get one step closer to taking consecutive titles? Will the older former champion RockyMMA reclaim former glory against the evil Russians Koreans? Will the rising star Dark live up to expectations or will the wheels finally fall off the bandwagon? Can Terminator, the apparent "dark horse" of this tournament, devise one more upset?
If it hadn't been for a Cinderella run at the end of 2014, INnoVation's year would have been extremely underwhelming. Although he was late to the competition, the new SKT recruit found his old form just in time to win the last GSL of the year and catch a red-eyed flight to BlizzCon. Now that INnoVation is reinstated in KeSPA's good graces, he appears less often and looks more prepared in every showing. Getting out first in GSL Ro32 was standard fare; losing to Stats in NSSL Challenger surprised many people, but served more to highlight Stats' excellence than anything else. His perfect 6-0 record in Proleague is stellar but didn't come easily, as he relied on lategame ghost/viking control for a couple of hard-fought comebacks.
A few odd games won't break INnoVation's reputation as the best Terran in the world. Due to neither soO or Zest qualifying for GSL, INnoVation had the highest 2014 GSL ranking and first pick in the group selection. His choice of Terminator was exactly what keen fans expected, a Protoss player who ranked low on the totem pole among the available competition. INnoVation had no desire to shake things up with his surprise powers either, preferring to not mess around with his chances.
Like most avalanches, it started fairly innocuously. Terminator made it through the NSSL qualifiers over a respectable bunch consisting of BBoongBBoong, Stork, TerrOr and sKyHigh. With some bracket luck, Terminator defeated ByuL twice 4 days later to advance in the GSL. These results were mildly perplexing only due to their apparent synchronicity, as both results were well within the Jin Air captain's ability. Yet facingTaeJa in NSSL along with herO and Curious in GSL, Terminator's run would almost certainly come to an end. But Terminator was able to smother TaeJa, Curious and herO within the crashing snow. He stunned viewers with a 3-2 reverse sweep of TaeJa, then beat Curious 2-1 and herO 2-0 to advance to the GSL Ro16. Unfortunately for Terminator, the latter is where dreams come to die. When comparing the players side by side, Terminator shouldn't have the raw skill to take on the competition in a straight up game. Instead he ought to rely on his strong early game aggression or some creative long term strategies, like the phoenix/colossi composition he used against TaeJa in NSSL.
Despite being the current WCS Europe champion and Blizzcon runner up, MMA's name doesn't quite pack the same punch as his former teammate INnoVation's. So far MMA's return to Korea has been discouraging. Without a team league to worry about, MMA's life in his home country revolves around the two focal points of NSSL and GSL. Yet even with a supposedly lighter burden, MMA nearly didn't qualify for either league.
The Acer Terran's NSSL run was stopped early with a 2-1 loss to TerrOr in the qualifiers. In the GSL qualifiers MMA was one game away from being eliminated by Apocalypse, a player that most people didn't realize was even in Korea. The close calls continued in the Ro32, where MMA survived with the lowest possible winning score of 4-4, which included a 0-2 loss to Dark. MMA's play style consists of twisting his opponent into unnatural contortions with constant drops, a reliable way of beating slightly worse opponents. But it's a style that may fail terribly if MMA plays the way he has been since moving back to Korea.
If you've read Dark's most recent interview, you know Dark is either the most ambitious player in the world or the best. Dark said that his goal as a progamer was to win 10 individual tournaments, a feat still unclaimed in SC2 history. In Dark's defense, he is constantly getting deeper and deeper in events. By current calculations, he would achieve his goal somewhere around the summer of 2031.
That being said, this is the best chance he's ever had to reach the quarterfinals. Rumors of him being SKT's top in-house player have finally resulted in SPL ace match appearances, which he has handled admirably. Within the last two months, Dark has gone 8-2 in matches against Protoss, and his ZvT expertise easily overwhelmed MMA in the round of 32. So in the group selections, Dark nominated himself to be in a group with Terminator and MMA: the motivation was transparent enough. The SKT Zerg was quick to provoke his potential victims but curiously yielded to INnoVation. Fortunately this saved him some future embarrassment as the very next day Dark fell out of the NSSL. Even if he felt that he could handle MMA without a problem, he still proved mortal against Terrans on the caliber of Maru and Dream.
Thoughts and Predictions:
It's hard to refute the idea that INnoVation will clean this group up, leaving the scraps for his teammate Dark. From his 6-0 record in Proleague, Inno has showed a level of play that the other players in this group can't imitate. At the same time Inno's slightly suspect TvT (and whose TvT isn't these days?) will be nevertheless favored against MMA. Dark's chances of advancing are a lot more vague than INnoVation's near guarantee. In recent games Dark's ZvT has only been surpassed by Life, relying heavily on his mechanics to bolster an impenetrable defense while raising a drone count that can reach three digits. It will be plenty good enough to triumph against MMA, but the odds are gloomy in a possible winners' match with INnoVation.
If anyone can able to upset the SKT empire it will probably be Terminator. Facing Inno in the first match is the hardest uphill battle imaginable, but the Jin Air captain's use of phoenix/colossi plays to an old weakness of INnoVation;s; it will also be useful against MMA's drop-heavy style. In a possible match against Dark, a few well hidden cheeses would be the best way to secure a painless win. As for the European prince, if MMA can play the way he did in Blizzcon then he would be the favorite to get out of the group. Currently he faces an uphill battle in each possible match-up.
I think Dark-INno-Terminator-MMA. Dark vs INno is a toss-up though. INno hasn't played a streamed TvZ against someone who isnt Solar since Blizzcon, plus it's a teamkill.
On February 11 2015 10:45 The_Templar wrote: I can't wait for Terminator to advance here.
Terminator for champion. With Sniper and Roro both having retired, there needs to be someone new taking the throne.
You're thinking too small. Terminator will win both tournaments, and beat Maru in the finals of both. With the dual Korean tournament, we have so many opportunities for villains. Hopefully we get one.
On February 11 2015 10:45 The_Templar wrote: I can't wait for Terminator to advance here.
Terminator for champion. With Sniper and Roro both having retired, there needs to be someone new taking the throne.
You're thinking too small. Terminator will win both tournaments, and beat Maru in the finals of both. With the dual Korean tournament, we have so many opportunities for villains. Hopefully we get one.
On February 11 2015 10:45 The_Templar wrote: I can't wait for Terminator to advance here.
Terminator for champion. With Sniper and Roro both having retired, there needs to be someone new taking the throne.
You're thinking too small. Terminator will win both tournaments, and beat Maru in the finals of both. With the dual Korean tournament, we have so many opportunities for villains. Hopefully we get one.
On February 11 2015 10:45 The_Templar wrote: I can't wait for Terminator to advance here.
Terminator for champion. With Sniper and Roro both having retired, there needs to be someone new taking the throne.
You're thinking too small. Terminator will win both tournaments, and beat Maru in the finals of both. With the dual Korean tournament, we have so many opportunities for villains. Hopefully we get one.
too bad terminator's out of NSSL
I'm currently living in an alternative version of Earth where Terminator beat Super in the NSSL.
On February 11 2015 10:45 The_Templar wrote: I can't wait for Terminator to advance here.
Terminator for champion. With Sniper and Roro both having retired, there needs to be someone new taking the throne.
You're thinking too small. Terminator will win both tournaments, and beat Maru in the finals of both. With the dual Korean tournament, we have so many opportunities for villains. Hopefully we get one.
too bad terminator's out of NSSL
I'm currently living in an alternative version of Earth where Terminator beat Super in the NSSL.
Dark said that his goal as a progamer was to win 10 individual tournaments, a feat still unclaimed in SC2 history.
hmm? I was under the assumption Dark meant any individual tournament, which has been done several times already if you count major/minor events and even once by Taeja if we're only counting Premiers (with Life, MMA, and Mvp just behind him).
If he just meant Korean leagues, then yeah, that's pretty damn ambitious. Though, not terribly out of the question now with all that's happening in Korea these days.
Although I am very intrigued to see how MMA does tonight. I got Bogus/Dark coming out of this but MMA making it wouldn't be too surprising. Deep down I think MMA still has potential to go deep and his skills have simply been degrading outside Korea. He could rise to the occasion in this group. His pick of Dark is very perplexing given how bad he got owned by him in the group stage. Perhaps he'll be more competitive this time around.
one of the most incredible articles on TL well done zeal
My favourite part about it is that Zealously predicted duckdeok to beat INno... which obviously never actually took place since INno played Naniwa in the loser's match.
Small suggestion for those of us (myself especially) who are inept at finding out when these matches are going to take place: list the T - minus time for the match?
That said, does anyone know when the group is playing?
On February 11 2015 12:03 caznitch wrote: Small suggestion for those of us (myself especially) who are inept at finding out when these matches are going to take place: list the T - minus time for the match?
That said, does anyone know when the group is playing?
On February 11 2015 12:03 caznitch wrote: Small suggestion for those of us (myself especially) who are inept at finding out when these matches are going to take place: list the T - minus time for the match?
That said, does anyone know when the group is playing?
It's going to be at 6.30 Korean time (or approximately 6 1/2 hours from now)
On February 11 2015 12:03 caznitch wrote: Small suggestion for those of us (myself especially) who are inept at finding out when these matches are going to take place: list the T - minus time for the match?
That said, does anyone know when the group is playing?
well T-minus is always linked in the liquipedia page which is in the upper right of the article. 18:30 KST, or 4:30 EST
Although I am very intrigued to see how MMA does tonight. I got Bogus/Dark coming out of this but MMA making it wouldn't be too surprising. Deep down I think MMA still has potential to go deep and his skills have simply been degrading outside Korea. He could rise to the occasion in this group. His pick of Dark is very perplexing given how bad he got owned by him in the group stage. Perhaps he'll be more competitive this time around.
It was not MMA's willing to pick Dark. Inno asked him to do that.
My Liquibets are doomed, DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED! I selected Inno & Dark too and we all know how the curse of TL predictions works. Now I have to wait who Artosis curses... but, but... damn it! :D
On February 11 2015 10:14 Nebuchad wrote: If Dark and Innovation don't both go through, there will be like 8 people total scoring 2 points in the liquibets.
On February 11 2015 10:14 Nebuchad wrote: If Dark and Innovation don't both go through, there will be like 8 people total scoring 2 points in the liquibets.
Ahhhh yes. MMA advances and everyone expecting Innovation & Dark to advance must be perplexed. MMA showed some amazing games. Definitely Code S champion incoming
Told ya, TL Writers overestimate Inno and underestimate MMA. I don't blame them, tho: Inno is always a safe pick.
Now, Dark's hype train crushed so hard; I feel sorry for the kid, he's really good, let's hope he learned from his mistakes and mantain his good shape.
On February 12 2015 07:58 Apoteosis wrote: Told ya, TL Writers overestimate Inno and underestimate MMA. I don't blame them, tho: Inno is always a safe pick.
Now, Dark's hype train crushed so hard; I feel sorry for the kid, he's really good, let's hope he learned from his mistakes and mantain his good shape.
INno predicted to take first, goes 4-0 and 0-2 in mirror, gets out in second place. Dark predicted to take second, goes 1-4, first eliminated out of the group.
On February 12 2015 06:59 EnumaAvalon wrote: DAMN IT MMA
MMA is/still has a monster inside of him. I think people overlook him because his "prime" was back in 2011-2012, when he was ALMOST on par with Mvp. MMA being back in Korea, after having a refreshing and relaxing 2 years away from the scene and the SlayerS stuff with the backing of a legit and good team means he's at the peak of his form.
MMA emerged in the time when Terrans were the powerhouse, and he was essentially the protege of Boxer. Plus, MMA learns from his mistakes. He wasn't going to lose to Dark 0-2 again.
People just need to jump on the hype train now and starting rooting for MMA. He'll win Code S and be on top of the world. Then, when his contract with Acer is up, Inno will bring him over to SKT and they'll mold Dream into the bonjwa he's destined to be.
EPT
INnoVation, the defending champion, get one step closer to taking consecutive titles? Will the older former champion 
Dark live up to expectations or will the wheels finally fall off the bandwagon? Can 
Terminator, the apparent "dark horse" of this tournament, devise one more upset?
![[image loading]](http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130710154045/cardfight/images/thumb/6/60/Facepalm.png/463px-Facepalm.png)
