EPTGSL Season Three
Code S
Group A Preview
Classic, EffOrt, Shine, sOs
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
Group A:
Sending Out an sOs
by banjoetheredskin
The most prestigious tournament in the world begins its third and final season of 2014 with one of three terran-less groups. Two protoss who have seen their fair share of glory and two zergs who can only say the opposite will face off to start the Round of 32. Today's matches will see the reigning GSL Champion's and the $100,000 Dollar Man's reputations put on the line, while providing The Hawk and The Typhoon Zerg the opportunity to silence doubters. Were even one of the zergs to advance from this group, hush critics it certainly would, as both will have to play their worst matchup in ZvP. While neither protoss has looked particularly dominant in PvZ, both have looked exceptional in the mirror matchup recently, and the treat of some high-level PvP could be in store should the group play out accordingly.
The main focus of the night will be on SKT T1
Classic, the current GSL Champion. Expectations are always highest for the man who sat on top of the world for the five weeks between seasons, but should they? Classic is on objectively the most stacked team in all of StarCraft II. He has four world-class teammates in Soulkey, soO, PartinG, and Rain; two fantastic protoss and arguably the two best zergs in the world. Could Classic have asked for a better group, given how strong his practice should be? Despite what one might think initially, the Chintoss should not be sitting too comfortably on his throne. Delving into Classic's match history, he does not boast the best record, but certainly a respectable one. In his last 21 games against zerg, the SKT protoss is 12-9. However, half of those wins were against teammate soO, who plays a very strong albeit predictable style in ZvP, and five were against CJ Hydra, who suffers from the same flaw. Classic himself plays a very standard style in PvZ when he is not thumping his two personal punching bags. In these non-soO/Hydra games Classic is only 3-6 dating back to April. One of those losses was even an 0-2 to his first opponent EffOrt. So is Classic actually all that great in the matchup? Apparently not. Fortunately for him, however, all he has to do is get past EffOrt (which should not be difficult) and he will likely get to play his statistically best matchup, PvP, in the winner's match. From there he has a decent chance of advancing to the Round of 16, looking solid at 7-3 in the mirror since the last season of Code S. It must be emphasized, however, that he cannot get complacent with his standing in either of this group's matchups, or Classic could be a classic example of the storied champion's curse that plagues traditional sports and esports alike. Classic's first opponent will be CJ's
EffOrt, the zerg aptly appellated for his avian appearance. Although his fowl-like facial features might not favor him to advance to the Round of 16, flying units could. EffOrt has shown two styles of play in the ZvP matchup, as most players do. Typically he will try to counter his opponent's style, if it is well-known and can be studied, or he will play his personal style. This is where EffOrt tends to macro up to the midgame and survive long enough on swarm hosts or roach hydra until he can make a big mutalisk switch. Although preparation against EffOrt is possible, it cannot be emphasized enough how abysmal he has been in the matchup for a long time. In 2014, he has not won against protoss in an offline setting at all. Online, his only map wins have been against unknown players, as well as one against Squirtle and two against, oddly enough, Classic. A 37% winrate in the matchup is hard to look past, making it difficult to justify The other zerg in Group A is Samsung_
Shine. Reputed as one of the great evils in the StarCraft universe, Shine has beaten fan favorites in the past, and could possibly do it again today. From making the beloved Bisu cry to shocking his first opponent of the day, sOs, and eliminating him from last season's Ro32, the Heartbreaker Zerg seems to thrive in situations such as this one. Known for, aside from disappointing his opponents and their fans alike, unorthodox and sometimes creative play, Shine is a rather mediocre player otherwise. He is in a horrible position statistically to advance from the group tonight, sporting a 39% record in ZvP and a 47% record in ZvZ in the past three months. In the former matchup, the one thing Shine has going for him is that he beat sOs in Season 2. His only other noteworthy win in all of 2014 was over YongHwa on the same day. In the mirror matchup, the Samsung zerg has not even taken a map off of anyone relevant except ByuL, who has had his own woes in the matchup. It's certainly not impossible for Shine to pull out some bizzare builds and baffle his opponents, or just magically play well for two games and get the win, but it's hard to have faith in him. Even sOs, the king of well-executed innovative builds, ought to be thinking "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." Rounding out the group is $O$ himself, Jin Air
sOs. As previously said, and will always be said about him, he is the master of prepared builds. sOs never ceases to amaze with how well he plans out a series and how strong his strategies are. While on the rise he was hailed as an innovator of the protoss race, he now holds a role more comparable to the Joker - there's always some nasty trick up his sleeve. In the past three months his PvZ has not looked as fabulous as one might expect from the game's most prolific cannon rusher, but 62% is certainly not bad. Bear in mind that his two zerg opponents have atrocious winrates in ZvP, so "pretty good' will likely be "more than comfortable" for sOs. As for his PvP, the first word that comes to mind is "sublime". In his last 31 games he is 22-9 in the mirror matchup. Very few players put up numbers even close to rivaling a record so outstanding. As strong as Classic might look in PvP, and Classic is probably sOs' only competition for first in this group, he still pales in comparison to the Jin Air protoss' sheer dominance in the matchup. Although sOs has always looked somewhat inconsistent in individual leagues, his form is perhaps better than ever to make the championship run of which everyone knows he is capable.Overall Thoughts and Predictions
Given his current momentum, and a mission to improve upon his early exit last season, it is hard to imagine sOs not coming out of this group in first, 4-0 at that. I am equally confident in Shine to come in last. It does not matter that he pulled off a miracle to beat sOs in Season 2. Looking at his records I say there's no way that will happen again to anyone in this group. If it was a 1 in 100 chance for that upset to happen, then he has already used his 1. As for second place, it's very easy to say that Classic has it locked, given EffOrt's pathetic ZvP winrate. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say EffOrt has what it takes. Take into consideration a few notes I made when researching the group.
Obviously, preparation is a key factor in today's matches for EffOrt. He is not good enough in ZvP to just outplay someone of Classic's caliber, however vulnerable the protoss himself may be in the matchup. There are a lot of Classic's games available to study, including seven against EffOrt's teammate Hydra. TRUE demonstrated very recently that he knew how to counter Classic's preferred macro style. There's no reason to believe EffOrt could not duplicate the Jin Air zerg's effort. A little Coach Park magic might be necessary, but I think it will happen.
Classic > EffOrt
Shine < sOs
Classic < sOs
EffOrt > Shine
EffOrt > Classic
sOs and EffOrt advance to the Round of 16.
