WCS Europe Season 2
Premier League

Previews and Predictions
San vs MC
VortiX vs Golden
Welmu vs ForGG
First vs StarDust

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

Countdown:

While WCS America spent this week wrapping up their group stages, Europe has long since been ready to jump into the exciting single elimination bracket of the quarterfinals. The Ro8 in Europe brings a unique flavor to the table compared to the other two regions, as it so often features fan favorite Koreans, rising and sometimes unrecognized stars, and foreign hopes all in the same bracket. This season's quarterfinals are no different, as San, MC, Vortix, Golden, Welmu, ForGG, First, and StarDust will go at it in the ESL studio to determine who will advance, and whose WCS run ends in the Ro8.

Things kick off with what's almost become WCS Europe's standard matchup, PvP. This one in particular is exciting to look forward to, as it promises both advanced and technical play as well as insane aggression from both sides. San vs MC is truly a battle of two top dogs in Europe, but one of these highly successful protoss players won't see the Round of 4.

It is hard to believe, but prior to MC's incredible run to the championship in last season's WCS EU, he had not won a Premier tournament in almost two years. MC has always been known for one simple thing: the ability to win. He may not have looked like the best player in a tournament, and maybe he wasn't always the favorite, but the two time GSL champion had a killer instinct and an ability to just win that was almost unmatched in the early days or Starcraft 2. However, with eleven top four finishes and no tournament wins from June 2012 to April 2014, it seemed like the Boss Toss had lost his edge. Not so, as it turned out, as he quietly made his way to the bracket stage of last season, and followed it up with three decisive victories to claim the title and his first Premier championship since he beat Bomber at Red Bull Battlegrounds: Austin in May of 2012.

If you are wondering why I am telling you all of this, it is to teach you one simple lesson: never, ever forget about MC. Some players are like that - think of Mvp. If you forget about MC, he will show up out of nowhere to add to his already enormous heap of eSports dollars.
MC hasn't looked unbeatable this season, as he narrowly defeated Happy in the Ro32, and lost 0-2 to Welmu to be relegated to second in his Ro16 group. Despite this, you have to watch out for MC as the first prize draws near, because the Protoss President will never lose his ability to win.

When it comes to this particular matchup, MC has got be feeling a little déjà-vu. Last season he had lost a PvP to San in the Ro16 and ended up encountering a Protoss player on a PvP hot streak in the Ro8 in StarDust. Replace San with Welmu and replace StarDust with San and you have the same story. Last season, MC was able to overcome StarDust's adept PvP and move on in the tournament, but will he have the same success this season? It would be fair to say that MC is having some struggles in the matchup, as he lost every PvP he played at Dreamhack Summer last month (1-2 Oz, 0-2 HerO, 1-2 First). When that record is combined with losses to Welmu and HasuObs in the month of June, you have to worry about MC's current PvP chops. San will no doubt be a tough challenge, but MC has the experience and skill needed to get through any "tough challenge" in the tournament.

MC's Challenger is a quickly rising star in the international tournament scene, yFw.San. San is a bit of a different animal than his opponent, as while MC has a long history of winning and may be on the decline, San is finally taking off in the foreign scene. Back when MC was winning GSL's in 2011, San was blocking his own natural nexus with a photon cannon, and was actually MC's semifinal stepping stone before the Boss Toss won GSL March back in 2011. However, San came back from a long period of invisibility with a vengeance, having now claimed six top four finishes in under a year in Premier tournaments. Combine that with his bullying of poor Sen in the TeSL, and San is having the year of his Starcraft II career.

While San has certainly been getting more exposure now that he is participating in more international tournaments, it is still somewhat hard for foreign fans to get a handle on just how good San is. San is generally out of the public's eye when participating in the TeSL, and has to come to Europe for recognition and success. Sure, he made top four of last season's WCS EU with a narrow 2-3 loss being the only thing that separated him from a Grand Finals showdown with MC, but his most impressive tournament result recently was simply three series he played in Korea for the GSL Global Championship. San beat Maru and soO back to back to be the only non-WCS Korea player to make the top four. Although he lost to PartinG in the semis, San proved that he can compete with the very best in Korea, and should be feared even more in the moderately weaker European scene.

It's easy to see where San is getting his rising star reputation, but his overall lack of tournament wins is potentially troubling. He did 4-0 a much diminished Dear in the finals of ASUS ROG Winter 2014, but otherwise he has seemed like a "top four" player rather than a "tournament winner". If he can get past MC, he will be in prime position to change that. San had a decent PvP month in June, winning four out of his five matches. He has the hot hand, but you get the sense that he is still the player with something to prove coming into this match against the most successful Starcraft II player of all time.

Head to head and prediction:

Looking at the overall record between MC and San tells a story that goes all the way back to MC's reign of terror in 2011 GSL's. MC holds the overall edge, but San has gotten the better of MC in their last two meetings and holds the better record in Heart of the Swarm.

You get the sense that San is just on the edge of really breaking through into superstardom, while MC will always be the crafty veteran making deep tournament runs. In this instance, based mostly off of the PvP the two players have shown recently, I am going to give the edge to San. I think MC will be passing the torch of Protoss President of WCS Europe off to San here, and the winner of this match might just be the favorite to take the whole tournament.

San 3 - 2 MC

From one mirror to another, the second series of the day will be a Zerg vs Zerg between one of the "Korean invaders" in Ai.Golden and the intrepid Spaniard Mill.VortiX. This isn't something that is said often, but this could be one of those few instances where the foreigner is considered the favorite over his Korean challenger, and Vortix can equal his best ever WCS result with a win here.

In Season 1, Vortix was coming into the quarterfinals with a full head of steam. After winning his Ro32 group convincingly, he was placed into a group of death with two gods of Wings of Liberty in Mvp and MMA. Vortix was not fazed at all and utterly stomped through opponents who had claimed 5 GSL championships between them. With 2-0 victories over both Mvp and MMA, and a seemingly favorable draw against a potentially weaker TvZ player in Jjakji, there was reason to hope that Vortix could use his Ro8 match as a platform to launch a potential championship run. Unfortunately, it was not to be. Jjakji came out swinging and Vortix was crushed 0-3 to fall out in the quarterfinals for the second time in WCS EU. The foreigner hype train derailed as Snute and Welmu were likewise sent packing, and Vortix was forced to wait until this season to get his revenge.

It would be unfair to talk about Vortix's performances in WCS and call them disappointing. He has been without a doubt the most consistent foreigner across all regions of WCS. He made the Ro16 in Season 1 of 2013, The Ro8 in Season 2, The Ro4, in Season 3, and kicked this year off with another Ro8 finish. We'd be applauding these as the incredible results that they are if he didn't look so damn close to doing even better every time. Could this finally be the season that Vortix makes a run to the finals? Unfortunately this looks like a bracket that may be enough to keep Vortix short of the finals again. First, there are no Terrans in his path to demonstrate his stellar ZvT. Even if he manages to win against Golden here, he'll be looking at either San or MC in the semifinals, two of the deadliest PvZ players on the planet. Vortix is almost certainly the conductor of the foreign hype train this season, but you are boarding at your own risk.

With respect to Zerg vs Zerg, Vortix is a bit of a mixed bag. He finished the Acer Teamstory Cup season with a 6-3 overall record in the matchup, his three losses coming against powerhouses Leenock, Jaedong, and Impact. However, he also suffered a 0-2 defeat at the hands of Tefel in the Ro32, who admittedly really isn't the "Worst Player on Earht", but is also a step below an opponent like Golden. Vortix is currently one of a few names being thrown around as the "best foreigner" and "best foreign Zerg" (although perhaps not the best foreign Zerg at playing Protoss) and he might establish himself ahead of his Canadian and Norwegian counterparts if he performs here.

Golden is a name that shouldn't be unfamiliar to almost anyone who watches Starcraft II, but just in case: here is a little Golden history lesson, free of charge. Golden was one of the early members of Slayers, and was even fielded in the finals of Slayers' first GSTL win in GSTL March 2011 (he ended up losing to Yonghwa). Since then, he has played on teams all around the world from Light eSports to Quantic Gaming to Startale. He is one of a fairly low number of players still playing great Starcraft that participated in the 2010 GSLs. However, if I were to describe Golden with one word, it wouldn't have anything to do with his play. That word would be "likable". Golden is a great guy. He organized the Support Hyun Tournament to help a friend who had been scammed out of a lot of money. Just read the letter he wrote to Slayers when he left the team back in early 2012. How cute is that?!

Ahem, back to the Starcraft. Golden is walking a sort of Royal Road in WCS EU, having spent most of 2013 in Code A over in Korea, and only having switched to Europe this season. He went through the European qualifier, beat sLivko in Challenger, and is really having a great showing in his first Premier League season. He hasn't looked like a true championship contender just yet, losing his initial series in each of the two group stages in the tournament, but he was able to fight back through the losers' match to advance both times. His tenacity is admirable, but you get the feeling that Golden has been getting through by the skin of his teeth up to this point. If he wants to make a serious mark on the Ro8, he's going to need to bring out a side of his play that we haven't seen so far. He's playing with the big dogs now.

At the very least, Golden has looked incredibly competent in the ZvZ matchup throughout his WCS run. He didn't look particularly troubled in his 3-1 victory over sLivko in Challenger, and did manage to 2-0 TLO earlier in the tournament. However the, "Cucaracha Zerg" will be a different challenge. While sLivko is still a fan of a certain infamous composition in all matchups and TLO is as creative as a player can get in ZvZ, Vortix is a more solid and standard Zerg. As likable as Golden is, many fans will be behind the foreigner in this matchup, and it will be up to Golden to pull out the win and perhaps bring some of those fans to his side.

Head to head and Prediction:

Expect to see a lot of roaches in this series. Both of these players play generally standard-ish ZvZ which basically means that they try to kill each other with roaches until one decides to try their luck with hydralisks or infestors. I am anticipating Golden being the more aggressive and innovative player here, while Vortix will be weathering the storm and counter attacking.

Of course, as this is ZvZ, I could be dead wrong and early pools could decide the games five times in a row. I am still going to hop right on board the foreigner hype train, at least in this matchup. Both players don't have notable weaknesses or strengths in ZvZ, but Vortix was impressive in the Ro16, and I think he will advance to the semifinals for the second time in his WCS EU career.

Vortix 3 - 1 Golden

In a cruel twist of fate, either one of the two foreigners left or the lone Terran survivor from the Round of 16 will be eliminated in our third match of the day. However, if you're a "glass half full" type of person, you are probably happy that one of them is guaranteed to advance to the semifinals! The Finnish Protoss NrS.Welmu will do battle with Mill.ForGG for that semifinal spot in the only non-mirror match of the quarterfinals.

The nominees for "top foreigner" these days generally include the Zerg players Snute, Vortix, and Scarlett. However, this might just be a massive injustice because there is a Protoss player who has been proving that he belongs in that section as well over the past few months. Sure his sub 50% win rate in Acer Teamstory Cup is certainly not impressive, but he carried NewRoSoft throughout the season, and secured 9 of their 10 maps to claim their two wins on the season. He was also the player to eliminate the fearsome RorO from Dreamhack Bucharest back in late April. If you didn't believe it before, believe it now. Welmu has earned the right to at least be considered for the title of best foreigner right now.

This season marks the third time Welmu has reached top 8 in WCS EU over five total seasons, making him the second most consistent foreigner in WCS behind Vortix. His Season 1 ended disappointingly with a fairly one sided 0-3 loss to San, but this season he seems to be coming into the Ro8 a little stronger. Despite his struggle with illness that kept him out of HSC IX, Welmu showed up ready to play in the Ro16 as he 2-0'd YoDa and then surprised everyone by beating MC 2-0 as well to advance out of the group in dominant fashion. He's coming into the quarterfinals on the back of a good run, and all signs point to him at least being able to do better than in last season's Ro8.

Although there are no easy draws this deep in WCS EU, Welmu may have gotten a draw that is specifically good for him. He has solid PvT and has won every PvT match he has played in WCS this year (2-1 over MMA, 2-1 over Demuslim, 2-0 over YoDa). Additionally, there was an incident that occurred May 22, 2014, that makes this matchup a little more interesting. Millenium, who at the time were fighting for a playoff spot in week eight of the Acer Teamstory Cup, was playing one of the bottom of the barrel teams in NewRoSoft. Dayshi took the first two maps for Millenium, but Welmu was having none of it. He proceeded to win five straight PvT's over Millenium's all Terran lineup that day, including two wins over ForGG (one in the ace match). If that doesn't give Welmu the confidence he needs to beat ForGG and move on to the semifinals, I don't know what will.

Welmu's opponent ForGG will certainly be looking to avenge that particular defeat, and he certainly has the skills to do it. ForGG has been a constant contender since moving to Europe in 2012, and he has earned top 4 in Premier tournaments like Dreamhack, ASUS ROG, and WCS EU. While the tournament title has eluded the Millenium Terran, ForGG is one of the strongest forces in the European scene. Over the past few months he has been playing well overall, with a 18-10 overall record as Millenium's ace in ATC and a decent showing at Dreamhack Summer where he made the top 16 bracket by beating players like TLO and MMA.

When you consider how good ForGG can be, it is a little absurd that he has been so inconsistent in WCS. He started strong and peaked in the top four of WCS Europe in Season 1 of 2013, but hasn't made the bracket stage ever since. Last season he was beaten by Lilbow and Babyknight in the Ro32 to drop out in last place. This isn't the kind of result we expect from someone who once upon a time beat Jaedong in an MSL final. Luckily, he seems to have turned it around this season and has finally been able to get himself back to the top 8 of the region. This season hasn't exactly been smooth sailing, as he did lose sets to both LiveZerg and Vortix, but at least he has managed to get this far. How much further he gets really depends on what ForGG shows up to in WCS Europe's championship weekend.

As far as this particular matchup goes, ForGG is probably reasonably pleased with his draw. Although there are no players remaining that he could play to showcase his aligulac-topping TvT (seriously, a 71% lifetime record in a matchup is absurd), he is still most likely happier to get a Protoss than a Zerg, as he has lost twice in TvZ this WCS Season alone. The fact that he drew a foreign Protoss is just an added bonus. ForGG has never lost to Welmu in a Bo3+ and he certainly won't be looking to start now.

Head to head and Prediction:

What we have here is a weird situation where both players got draws that are favorable for each other, which makes it somewhat difficult to predict. On the one hand, Welmu's previous efforts in the quarterfinals of WCS EU haven't been successful, as he is a combined 0-6 in maps once he has reached the bracket stage. On the other hand, ForGG hasn't exactly been a pinnacle of consistency in WCS.

As much as I would like to go with the foreigner here, I think ForGG will be the one moving on. Welmu hasn't had much luck in the later rounds of WCS, and ForGG has a Korean flag next to his name.

Welmu 2 - 3 ForGG

The final matchup of this season's quarterfinals perhaps isn't the most exciting match on the docket but there can be no doubt that both players have every chance to win the entire tournament. In the second PvP of the Ro8, the castoff from Korea, First will play the lovable mYi.StarDust to determine the final spot in the semifinals. Both players have been in the position before with little success, but at least one of them will finally reach the top four of WCS, and potentially go on to play in the finals.

Remember when First was widely considered a top 5 Protoss in the world? Maybe even top 3? If you don't, allow me to refresh your memory. Last season in WCS Korea Season 2 (OSL) First made an improbable run to the quarterfinals, beating RorO and Leenock in the Ro32 and placing second in a dramatic tie-breaker between himself, Rain, and hyvaa in the Ro16. He was able to secure himself a spot in the Season 2 finals and finished top four in a stacked field. At the same time, he was instrumental to IM's win in GSTL Season 1 in 2013 and even all killed Prime. Unfortunately, First's meteoric rise was followed by perhaps an even more meteoric downfall. He failed to get out of the Ro32 in the following WCS season and left IM a few months later, just before the team started competing in Proleague.

The question here is: Does First still have the potential to be a top five Protoss, or was he just a flash in the pan who will never rise to that level of prominence again? Since moving to Europe, First has looked somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, and has generally been solid but not extraordinary. He failed to qualify for WCS EU in Season 1, but didn't drop a map in his qualifier or Challenger League in Season 2. He has been hit or miss at Dreamhacks, as he had a dismal showing at Bucharest where he was eliminated by Zanster and Bunny but a solid showing at Dreamhack Summer where he was narrowly knocked out in the quarterfinals by San. First has sure looked like he belongs in the Ro8, but does he belong any higher? It's hard to tell.

If there is one matchup that First has been convincing in, it is PvP. Over the past two months, First is remarkable 19-2 in his mirror matchup. Of course, most of these wins have come over Europeans players, but he also beat players like Patience, MC, StarDust, Welmu, and Hurricane over that span. In particular, his 2-0 win over StarDust in the Ro32 of this Season inspires some confidence in First's ability to win big matches again. First is out to prove that he is a true contender, and finishing top four in WCS EU should be enough to truly establish himself as a force to be reckoned with.

StarDust is a player who burst onto the scene with a stunning win at Dreamhack Summer last year and has yet to have a repeat performance. It seems as though that Dreamhack really was the tournament of a lifetime for the beloved "Cheesedust" and ever since he has been ever the contender and never the champion. StarDust's performances in WCS are consistent, having now reached his third straight Ro8 in WCS EU. Unfortunately, the Ro8 was his stumbling block in each of the last two tries, but he will have a go again this weekend.

StarDust's month of June was a busy one, as he had WCS, Dreamhack, and MLG all lined up within the span of a few weeks. He was able to advance through the Ro16 of WCS, despite a loss to San, by beating LiveZerg twice. Dreamhack was a bit of a disappointment for StarDust. A year after his win in 2013 he was eliminated by Oz and Harstem before even reaching the bracket stage. On the other hand, StarDust's performance at MLG was remarkable, as he was able to advance through the incredibly stacked open bracket without dropping a set, and finished in second place in his pool with a 6-1 record. Although losses to Polt and Trap sent him out of tournament, finishing top 6 starting from the open bracket is an incredible accomplishment. If he can carry some of that momentum into the quarterfinals of WCS EU, he has a good shot at advancing.

While First may be coming into this group on a PvP hot streak, StarDust hasn't been quite so warm in the matchup. Over the past two months he is 6-7 overall in it and has lost 6 of his last 7 PvPs against Korean opponents. In addition, StarDust was fairly handily beaten 2-0 by First in their meeting earlier this WCS Season. Overall it looks like the odds may be stacked against StarDust here, and he may potentially be facing another Ro8 elimination. Only time will tell if StarDust is able to overcome this adversity and make the semifinals for the first time in his WCS career.

Head to head and Prediction:

As much as I respect StarDust's performance at MLG, I have to go with the hot hand here. First has been on an absolute PvP tear recently, and StarDust has been lackluster. Of course it is PvP, so this series could really swing either way, but I am going to call First as the victor here. Sorry StarDust. Maybe you'll make your way to the Ro4 next season.

First 3 - 1 StarDust

Writers: Darkhorse.
Photos: ESL.
Editors: DarkLordOlli.