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[Aligulac July 10 list] Something something stats

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
July 11 2013 17:14 GMT
#1
Specific feedback and feature requests should go here: Aligulac.com changelog and feedback thread

We have a FAQ here. FAQ means Frequently Asked Questions. Odds are your Question is Frequently Asked.
Visit us aligulac.com


This week I will do the write-up, mainly because at this point nobody else wants to

The rating system has had a small tampering with the way it treats brand new players, which has fixed some on the problems we had with players like trust and Jig who in their first play period got a +800 boost. This has changed some of the older lists and the +'s and -'s you see below are consistent with the new rating method, albeit not with last periods write-up. This hasn't changed much in the top though.

Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go.

The list:
  1. kr INnoVation 1968 (+2: Proleague, WCS KR)
  2. kr Life 1929 (+0: RSL)
  3. kr Mvp 1925 (+1: WCS EU)
  4. kr Polt 1899 (+111: MLG, IEM Shanghai Qualifiers, ZOTAC)
  5. kr HyuN 1870 (+65: MLG, ATC, ESET, WCS AM Qualifiers, RSL, ZOTAC, go4sc2 )
  6. kr viOLet 1847 (-12: GSTL )
  7. kr San 1833 (+55: ESET, TESL, Assembly Qualifiers, WCS EU Qualifiers)
  8. es LucifroN 1829 (+27: RSL, ATC, WCS EU, go4sc2, SC2L )
  9. kr Flash 1827 (-17: Asian Indoor games, Proleague, WCS KR, IEM Shanghai Qualifiers)
  10. kr sOs 1824 (+3: Asian Indoor games)

Honorable mentions: Leenock, Squirtle, First, ForGG Taeja.

INnoVation, "the greatest RTS player of all time", enjoys another period at 1st place, with the kid-prodigy Life being banished to 2nd place four periods in a row now. The Life we once knew is no more, and unless he picks up his game, will probably end up falling a lot further down, since his current score is carried by his older performances and the fact that he plays very few games. The biggest scorer in our top 10 is Polt, with great performance at especially MLG he jumps up quite high. Same can be said for the beast that is HyuN who plays in anything he can get his hands on.


The foreigner list:
  1. es LucifroN 1829 (+27: RSL, ATC, WCS EU, go4sc2, SC2L )
  2. tw Sen 1727 (+13: Asian Indoor games, TESL)
  3. se NaNiwa 1702 (+83: MLG, WCS EU)
  4. ru Happy 1688 (+38: EnerJ )
  5. no Snute 1675 (-1: ATC, Proleague, SC2L)
  6. es VortiX 1652 (+4: go4sc2, ATC, ZOTAC )
  7. fr Stephano 1651 (No change)
  8. cn Jim 1623 (+8: Kungfu Cup)
  9. ca Scarlett 1614 (-18: ATC, GSTL)
  10. dk Bunny 1610 (No change)

Honorable mentions: TLO, Kas, Welmu, Nerchio, MaNa, HasuObs

Except for TLO slipping out of the top 10, the foreigner list contains the same names as last period, although rearranged. LucifroN is still by far the highest ranked, being 100+ points ahead of the 2nd best foreigner. A player like NaNiwa also takes a big step up the ranking with an impressive performance at MLG.

The balance numbers for June are also out:
TvZ: 52.4% (1188 games)
PvZ: 49.1% (1447 games)
PvT: 48% (978 games)
This is the closest we have been to 50% since the launch of HotS, full numbers available here!

Since I have been away for the most of this period, I want to give all the credit to our great team. Conti, TheBB and Otolia have been doing a lot of minor adjustments/tweaks to improve the loading time for a lot of stuff of the site, which is highly appreciated. Shoutout to our trio of especially hardworking match-adders consisting of kiekaboe, MasterOfPuppets and Shellshock. (More than 3K for this period, most of them added by one of these three). Thanks to all the people following us on twitter and to MoP for babysitting it while I was getting drunk the last week or so. Also finally a huge thanks to all the progamers who have been showing an increasing interest in what we do and helping us with adding tournaments, fixing wrong results and helping us find obscure cups we haven't heard about before (although it is mostly themselves winning :D), thank you hendralisk, desrow, sasquatch, pal etc.

If you want to get in contact with us or have suggestion feel free to use:
  • This thread.
  • Twitter @Sc2Aligulac.
  • PM. Me or TheBB.
  • IRC: #aligulac on quakenet.
  • E-mail to evfonn(at)gmail(dot)com.
  • Issue list on GitHub.
  • Pilgrimage to Zürich. TheBB will find you.
Untill we talk again, may your micro be crisp and your macro smooth.

The Aligulac team:
  • The motherfucking boss: TheBB
  • Programming team: TheBB, Conti, Otolia, Netbattler, NCzempin, XavierMarchegay, Arzar.
  • Database maintainers: TheBB, Conti, kiekaboe, Inflicted, MasterOfPuppets, Grovbolle, PhoenixVoid, Shellshock, TheAmazombie, FrozENDruiD,
  • PR manager, tweeter and occasional writer of ups: Grovbolle.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
July 11 2013 17:18 GMT
#2
Also, we love Nestea
https://github.com/TheBB/aligulac/pull/66
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
NightOfTheDead
Profile Joined August 2009
Lithuania1711 Posts
July 11 2013 17:22 GMT
#3
Innovation greatest of all time? BS.
Lorning *
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgica34432 Posts
July 11 2013 17:24 GMT
#4
Watch your back Innovation, ManZenith is coming for you
Community News
TL+ Member
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
July 11 2013 17:28 GMT
#5
On July 12 2013 02:22 NightOfTheDead wrote:
Innovation greatest of all time? BS.

Tell that to Tasteless
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
July 11 2013 17:29 GMT
#6
What is an MC number? Also I really like the new little "stories" and "team switches" buttons on the graphs.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
awesomoecalypse
Profile Joined August 2010
United States2235 Posts
July 11 2013 17:31 GMT
#7
I think that Rain and even First are better Protoss than San these days.
He drone drone drone. Me win. - ogsMC
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
July 11 2013 17:31 GMT
#8
On July 12 2013 02:29 strongandbig wrote:
What is an MC number? Also I really like the new little "stories" and "team switches" buttons on the graphs.

MC has an MC number of 0.
Anyone who has played MC in an offline match have an MC number of 1.
Anyone who has played someone offline who has played MC offline have a number of 2.
etc.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Kasaraki
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Denmark7115 Posts
July 11 2013 17:37 GMT
#9
On July 12 2013 02:31 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 02:29 strongandbig wrote:
What is an MC number? Also I really like the new little "stories" and "team switches" buttons on the graphs.

MC has an MC number of 0.
Anyone who has played MC in an offline match have an MC number of 1.
Anyone who has played someone offline who has played MC offline have a number of 2.
etc.

Hahaha, that's amazing. At first I thought you were joking but you're actually telling the truth. Wow, so cool.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
July 11 2013 17:44 GMT
#10
On July 12 2013 02:37 Kasaraki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 02:31 Grovbolle wrote:
On July 12 2013 02:29 strongandbig wrote:
What is an MC number? Also I really like the new little "stories" and "team switches" buttons on the graphs.

MC has an MC number of 0.
Anyone who has played MC in an offline match have an MC number of 1.
Anyone who has played someone offline who has played MC offline have a number of 2.
etc.

Hahaha, that's amazing. At first I thought you were joking but you're actually telling the truth. Wow, so cool.

It used to be a goody number, and with online as well, which resulted in EVERYONE having a number no higher than 1 or 2.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
July 11 2013 17:50 GMT
#11
I'm sure Mvp will make up those 4 points and take #2 in these rankings soon enough.
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33399 Posts
July 11 2013 19:43 GMT
#12
no one can solve the San Problem
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
July 11 2013 19:57 GMT
#13
Incoming Sanageddon?
Moderator
packrat386
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States5077 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-11 20:25:17
July 11 2013 20:23 GMT
#14
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.
dreaming of a sunny day
di4m0nd
Profile Joined June 2010
United States297 Posts
July 11 2013 20:33 GMT
#15
On July 12 2013 02:50 Entirety wrote:
I'm sure Mvp will make up those 4 points and take #2 in these rankings soon enough.


I'm sure Mvp will make up those 43 points and take #1 in these rankings soon enough.

Fixed
TLO | MC | Taeja | MarineKing | Alicia | HerO | PartinG | Bomber | Genius | MMA | CoCa | HuK | DRG | YugiOh | MVP | Jjakji | Stardust | Snute | Scarlett
Markwerf
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands3728 Posts
July 11 2013 20:36 GMT
#16
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.


classic problem of rating people from two different scenes.. take it with a grain of salt.

More interested in the balance statistics myself, 52~ % for T in both it's matchups apparently with a relatively large sample. Nothing worrisome but does validate hellbat nerf a bit for me.
Paljas
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6926 Posts
July 11 2013 20:40 GMT
#17
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.

a two point difference is completly meanigless.
TL+ Member
Scumi
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany108 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-11 21:06:51
July 11 2013 20:58 GMT
#18
Where can I find that mysterious MC number?
edwahn
Profile Joined March 2011
New Zealand121 Posts
July 11 2013 21:09 GMT
#19
Love this site. I check it on a daily basis. I'm amazed at this community that can keep something awesome like this running!

And Flash out of top 10 after OSL R16 :'( But that's deserved; his performance just hasn't been that great...
NightOfTheDead
Profile Joined August 2009
Lithuania1711 Posts
July 11 2013 21:18 GMT
#20
On July 12 2013 02:28 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 02:22 NightOfTheDead wrote:
Innovation greatest of all time? BS.

Tell that to Tasteless


Dunno if he does this for hype or from self-denial.
Otolia
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
France5805 Posts
July 11 2013 21:22 GMT
#21
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

http://aligulac.com/predict/match/?bo=101&ps=55,50
KaiserKieran
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States615 Posts
July 11 2013 21:44 GMT
#22
HYUNSTOPPABLE
jinorazi
Profile Joined October 2004
Korea (South)4948 Posts
July 11 2013 22:00 GMT
#23
aligulac awareness increasing every month!
age: 84 | location: california | sex: 잘함
iMrising
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
United States1099 Posts
July 11 2013 22:16 GMT
#24
On July 12 2013 02:18 Grovbolle wrote:
Also, we love Nestea
https://github.com/TheBB/aligulac/pull/66

now i love you too
$O$ | soO
desRow
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Canada2654 Posts
July 11 2013 22:32 GMT
#25
Love this site such a good resource ^^ <3 !

also is it me or his zvz mmr is glitched?
http://aligulac.com/players/2289-Jig/
before losing to hitman he was rank 3 in the world zvz
http://twitch.tv/desrowfighting http://twitter.com/desrowfighting http://facebook.com/desrowfighting
SiskosGoatee
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Albania1482 Posts
July 11 2013 22:39 GMT
#26
One of the things I actually realized yesterday is that along with all the Islands of the foreign scene, that being European and American and Chinese, proleague may be in fact an Island? People in proleague play each other disproportionally more than people outside of proleague It could be that being good in proleague might very inflate ratings a bit since the average level of proleague is certainly lower than the average level of say WCS KR.

Thoughts?
WCS Apartheid cometh, all hail the casual audience, death to merit and hard work.
coL.hendralisk
Profile Joined September 2009
Zimbabwe1756 Posts
July 11 2013 23:25 GMT
#27
On July 12 2013 07:32 FXOdesRow wrote:
Love this site such a good resource ^^ <3 !

also is it me or his zvz mmr is glitched?
http://aligulac.com/players/2289-Jig/
before losing to hitman he was rank 3 in the world zvz


It seems to be bugged here http://aligulac.com/players/2289-Jig/period/78/

You guys should fix it before it skews more results
faiza
Profile Joined June 2012
United States451 Posts
July 11 2013 23:32 GMT
#28
MC number is the best feature I've ever seen.
bertu
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Brazil871 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-07-11 23:40:46
July 11 2013 23:38 GMT
#29
On July 12 2013 05:36 Markwerf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.


classic problem of rating people from two different scenes.. take it with a grain of salt.



Yup. Is it possible to filter input so it would only compute ratings based in something like "games played versus koreans"? Preferably live events only.

Koreans x foreigner (take San rising) or cross continent games (Lucifron) messes thing up when making a unified ranking. Oh well.
SEKO SEKO SEKO
SiskosGoatee
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Albania1482 Posts
July 11 2013 23:43 GMT
#30
On July 12 2013 08:38 bertu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 05:36 Markwerf wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.


classic problem of rating people from two different scenes.. take it with a grain of salt.



Yup. Is it possible to filter input so it would only compute ratings based in something like "games played versus koreans"? Preferably live events only.

Koreans x foreigner (take San rising) or cross continent games (Lucifron) messes thing up when making a unified ranking. Oh well.
Unlikely, I'm pretty sure the rating is stored in the database itself at the row of every player. For the system to actually compute the rating at every page request would be an insurmountable load going through the entire history.
WCS Apartheid cometh, all hail the casual audience, death to merit and hard work.
bertu
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Brazil871 Posts
July 12 2013 00:57 GMT
#31
On July 12 2013 08:43 SiskosGoatee wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 08:38 bertu wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:36 Markwerf wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:23 packrat386 wrote:
I don't get it. Maybe the stats tell otherwise, but my gut says that lucifron doesn't beat flash in a Best of 101 with his life on the line.

edit: Also I'm glad that those balance numbers are close because now I can tell whiners in the LR threads to fuck off.


classic problem of rating people from two different scenes.. take it with a grain of salt.



Yup. Is it possible to filter input so it would only compute ratings based in something like "games played versus koreans"? Preferably live events only.

Koreans x foreigner (take San rising) or cross continent games (Lucifron) messes thing up when making a unified ranking. Oh well.
Unlikely, I'm pretty sure the rating is stored in the database itself at the row of every player. For the system to actually compute the rating at every page request would be an insurmountable load going through the entire history.


Bummer. Current form works well when comparing players that are almost entirely contained in the same "island", but outlying cases look like a mess (take the flash x lucifron prediction example). Still useful overall.

Maybe if they sorted different databases by "islands" it would help, but this seems arbitrary and a ton of work for a voluntary project, so no reason to complain..
SEKO SEKO SEKO
SiskosGoatee
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Albania1482 Posts
July 12 2013 01:03 GMT
#32
You can actually modify the algorithm to recognise extra-islandic encounters. As in, give more weight to matches between players that rarely play each other and also rarely play against other players that play those players to speed up the transfer of points between different islands.

Like, because Flash and Lucifron rarely meet and because they also play mostly against players who rarely meet each other. You can put more weight on a match between Flash and Lucifron to better accurately normalize the Islands. In this case Lucifron will lose more points losing from Flash than he normally would and that disparency in points is then again spread to his own island.
WCS Apartheid cometh, all hail the casual audience, death to merit and hard work.
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