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Aligulac Jan 23 update: First first (++features)

Forum Index > SC2 General
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TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 14:53:24
January 24 2013 12:26 GMT
#1
Edit: In light of recent revalations, First is no longer first.

Note that again, so many matches from the past have been added that I recomputed the whole history, thus there can be some disconnect between this post and my last one.

Zerg is still ahead and Protoss is still behind, but not nearly as much as before (about ±5%).

The top 10 has changed quite a bit.
  1. Life 2691
  2. First 2686
  3. Bomber 2591
  4. Sniper 2546
  5. DongRaeGu 2523
  6. PartinG 2506
  7. Symbol 2423
  8. Maru 2405
  9. Monster 2403
  10. Polt 2360
First makes an appearance after IEM, going 27-3 in total these two weeks and gaining 495 points. Parting loses some points after particularly disappointing PvT performances against Lucifron and Dream. Life also drops from first place, presumably because of the IPL International Regional. That's also where we find our honourable mention, Absolute, who was rated a dismal 569, and then went 6-2 against Byul, Life and Snute, giving him a new rating of 2510! He would be fifth on the list if his uncertainty wasn't so high. He is also a major contributor to Life, Byul and Snute losing a lot of points. FAIL

Here are the foreigners.
  1. Scarlett 2345
  2. VortiX 2190
  3. Sen 2115
  4. XiGua 2016
  5. Stephano 2009
  6. LucifroN 2002
  7. LiveZerg 1973
  8. Socke 1972
  9. Welmu 1966
  10. Fraer 1955
Not a good two weeks for the foreigners. On this list, only Scarlett, LiveZerg and Socke managed to gain points.

Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
  1. MVP 95.07%
  2. StarTale 94.62%
  3. Incredible Miracle 92.80%
  4. SK Telecom T1 90.68%
  5. FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
  6. AZUBU 87.80%
  7. Prime 86.12%
  8. Team Liquid 84.72%
  9. Evil Geniuses 83.87%
  10. STX SouL 83.81%
StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.

A list of new features (quite a few this week):

+ Show Spoiler [New features] +
- Results are now browsable by event. Almost two thirds of the database have been catalogued so far (it's hard work). You can also find the event page by clicking on the title of a match on any page it's displayed (e.g. results by date ormatch history). If a link is available there will be a white triangle on the left. If it's not there, those matches are still not catalogued.

- You can also search the results.

- The rating adjustments page shows more information than it did before, giving a relatively detailed insight into the workings of the rating system. (Not perfect, but more than before at least.) I'm aware it can look strange sometimes, please refer to the FAQ before complaining.

- Search has been heavily improved. This applies to searching for results, finding players for the match predictions and also the little box in the top right. You can now type player tags, team names, aliases (e.g. DRG instead of DongRaeGu), countries with both two- and three-letter codes as well as common English names, races (P, T, Z, R=Random and S=Race switcher). That should be quite enough to never have to use ID numbers I think.

- I added another requirement for showing up on the list. You need to have played a game during the last four periods (about two months) and have a rating uncertainty of less than 200.

- You can filter the rating list by race and nationality (Koreans and foreigners).

- The menus are reorganized a bit. Most significantly, you will see some player-specific menu items on the player-specific pages.

- There is a new database page where you can view some stats, as well as download a SQL dump of the whole thing for private projects. This SQL dump includes all player, match, team and rating information on the site.

- Rating deviations are now displayed on the player page, indicating the confidence level of a rating.

- The player rating plot has changed a bit. The lines are thinner and clearer. The rating deviation is also shown as a thick light grey area surrounding the black line, you can see how the deviation increases over time when someone doesn't play, it's particularly clear on Lucifron's page. I've also made the graph smoother and more pleasing to the eye. You can input dates to change the range, and you can also click the graph to get a bigger version.


I'd also like to ask the community for some help.

First, I just implemented support for Random players and Race switchers, and thus also support for people who have changed races, but the bookkeeping has been spotty on this point. I know I have to fix Morrow and TLO most significantly. There's also Gumiho and Guineapig. Any others? Players, dates, any info could be of use.

Second, my team of four (more or less) have been busting their asses over the last two weeks cataloguing 20,000 matches by events and adding results where they were missing, but we're still only four, and the work is pretty extensive. Any volunteers who are willing to help us in any way are very welcome. I've made the database freely available in the hopes of turning this into a sort of community effort instead of my pet project. Just shoot me a PM!

This week, more than any other week, my thanks go to Conti, kiekaboe and Grovbolle for their monstrous effort in event cataloguing. This project wouldn't be what it is without them.

Finally, here is Grovbolle's essay on KeSPA players, which he asked me to post along with this thread.

Tracking the herd.
-By Grovbolle

This small segment runs through the movement through the ranks of the so called elephants, I focus on the big guns from Brood War, meaning that a player like Rain isn’t in this write-up. I cover the players which I consider to be those with the biggest pressure on their shoulders to perform well. The list is as follows (in no specific order).


[image loading]Flash - 2398 -> 2196
Starting off with Flash we see that he hasn’t had a good last 2 weeks. Having Only played 5 matches during the last period and losing to players like [image loading]free and [image loading]Speed(Cure), Which are both low-ranked, means that he has dropped from 2250 to 2196. However do note that Flash’s Up’N’Down results were counted in the previous period.

[image loading]FanTaSy - 1939 -> 1809
The terrorist has quite a few games to be added to the New list. Notably his wins against [image loading]finale and [image loading]NesTea in his Up’N’Down group scored him some points against highly rated opponents, so did his win over [image loading]sOs in the match between SKT T1 and Woongjin Stars. His loss to the almost unknown [image loading]Center as well as the losses to [image loading]Light and [image loading]Flying means that he comes out on the new list with only 1809 points however.

[image loading]Jaedong - 2364 -> 2330
EG’s Jaedong has played both the Wildcard Group in GSL, IPL Qualifiers as well as in 2 proleague matches since last list. He has beaten high-rated players such as [image loading]Symbol, [image loading]GuMiho, [image loading]Brown, [image loading]Monster and [image loading]Soulkey. The Tyrant however also lost to much lower rated players like [image loading]Center, [image loading]Byun and [image loading]Jaehoon. Pushing Jaedong from 2364 to 2330

[image loading]JangBi - 2096 -> 2150
The last BW OSL champion (with back-to-back victories might I add) has had a great period beating the likes of HerO (or 11 as we call him), [image loading]PuMa, Revival and [image loading]Flash, while losing only to [image loading]hyvaa and [image loading]Rain. Boosting him from 2096 to 2150

[image loading]Stork - 1880 -> 1881
Like most of the Kespa players Stork’s results come from playing Proleague. Having only lost to players with a higher rating than himself, while beating players with lower ratings as well as both [image loading]Rain and [image loading]Last, Stork gains a single point

[image loading]Bisu - 1629 -> 1629
I could write a lot about how Bisu have disappointed the people believing in the elephant theory , however his 1661 points is still fairly respectable, and with a 2K rating against zerg he can’t be as bad as what people proclaim. Having played no matches during the last 2 weeks he has gained/lost no points.

[image loading]Soulkey - 2213 -> 2184
Soulkey have played five matches since last week’s list. Having lost to [image loading]Rain and [image loading]Jaedong who are higher rated than him, as well as a loss to [image loading]Dear cost him points. Soulkey did beat [image loading]Revival and [image loading]Classic though who both have a 1900+ rating against Z meaning that Soulkey moves from 2213 to 2184.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Parlortricks
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States111 Posts
January 24 2013 12:31 GMT
#2
A rank twelve Scarlett is fairly impressive. I look forward to seeing these every couple of weeks, good going BB.
StarGalaxy
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany744 Posts
January 24 2013 12:34 GMT
#3
thx TheBB, i am always looking forward to the updates!
Cj hero | Zest
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 24 2013 13:13 GMT
#4
Please volunteer guys. I am afraid Kiekaboe and Conti soon will stop functioning. These guys are like match-adding robots
http://aligulac.com/db/ check those numbers. :D
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 24 2013 13:15 GMT
#5
On January 24 2013 22:13 Grovbolle wrote:
Please volunteer guys. I am afraid Kiekaboe and Conti soon will stop functioning. These guys are like match-adding robots
http://aligulac.com/db/ check those numbers. :D

Yeah, they're crazy, but you're right, we can't keep going like we've done the last two weeks.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
January 24 2013 13:38 GMT
#6
I'm just doing whatever I can to avoid learning for exams. >.>

Seriously though, we do need more volunteers! There's tons of stuff to do, and given TheBB's obsession with adding cool new features to the site practically every week, I doubt we'll run out of work soon.

Stuff you can do:
  • Add matches do the ever growing database!
  • Categorize matches into events to make them easier to navigate! For older events (pre 2011) this turns into a fun puzzle game of finding the exact matchups, dates and results from all over the internet!
  • Add teams! And more importantly, keep the team lists up to date! Be the first to update a recent player signing for that extra warm fuzzy feeling in your tummy.
  • Find errors and correct them. A wrong date here, mistaken players with the same name there. We'll never run out of those.
  • Add various information about players, such as real names, birth dates and external links!
  • NEW FEATURE: Add well known aliases of players and teams!
  • Poke TheBB for new features! New feature implementation guaranteed!*
  • And much more!

It's fun for the whole family!

*Guarantee not guaranteed
JackReacher
Profile Joined September 2012
United States197 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 13:43:18
January 24 2013 13:42 GMT
#7
What is "Aligulac"? I've never heard of this, is it some kind of unofficial ELO ranking project or something? If so, who decides the rules, weighting for tournaments or opponents from the outset, etc.?
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 24 2013 13:43 GMT
#8
On January 24 2013 22:38 Conti wrote:
I'm just doing whatever I can to avoid learning for exams. >.>

Seriously though, we do need more volunteers! There's tons of stuff to do, and given TheBB's obsession with adding cool new features to the site practically every week, I doubt we'll run out of work soon.

Stuff you can do:
  • Add matches do the ever growing database!
  • Categorize matches into events to make them easier to navigate! For older events (pre 2011) this turns into a fun puzzle game of finding the exact matchups, dates and results from all over the internet!
  • Add teams! And more importantly, keep the team lists up to date! Be the first to update a recent player signing for that extra warm fuzzy feeling in your tummy.
  • Find errors and correct them. A wrong date here, mistaken players with the same name there. We'll never run out of those.
  • Add various information about players, such as real names, birth dates and external links!
  • NEW FEATURE: Add well known aliases of players and teams!
  • Poke TheBB for new features! New feature implementation guaranteed!*
  • And much more!

It's fun for the whole family!

*Guarantee not guaranteed


Best part.
Me: "Hey Eivind, can you please implement XX without breaking the whole database"
TheBB: "Sure"
Me: "U BROKE IT"
TheBB: "Sorry about that"
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 24 2013 13:44 GMT
#9
On January 24 2013 22:42 JackReacher wrote:
What is "Aligulac"? I've never heard of this, is it some kind of unofficial ELO ranking project or something? If so, who decides the rules, weighting for tournaments or opponents from the outset, etc.?

http://aligulac.com/faq/
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
sitromit
Profile Joined June 2011
7051 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 14:11:21
January 24 2013 13:53 GMT
#10
Your scores are wrong. When you use data from stuff like IPL's online international qualifier, you need to keep in mind that the connections between account names you see in the brackets and the actual players are tenuous at best, and while the people who update the Liquipedia do their best (DiMaNo is amazing), sometimes it's hard to pin down who the actual players are...

Case in point, the player who beat Life in the quarterfinals is actually IMYonghwa, not a no-name Terran called Absolute. All those scores you have with Absolute are invalid.

Edit: Looks like the bracket on Liquipedia is already more up-to-date than whichever source you got your data from. All thanks to DiMaNo's hard work. He did a lot of detective work on his own, trying to figure out who the players behind the account names really are.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_6/International_Regional_1
Targe
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom14103 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 14:08:24
January 24 2013 14:06 GMT
#11
Thanks for this guys, I always like to stay up to date with your rankings :D

Edit: OMG so many changes to the site! o.0
11/5/14 CATACLYSM | The South West's worst Falco main
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 24 2013 14:10 GMT
#12
On January 24 2013 22:53 sitromit wrote:
Your scores are wrong. When you use data from stuff like IPL's online international qualifier, you need to keep in mind that the connections between account names you see in the brackets and the actual players are tenuous at best, and while the people who update the Liquipedia do their best (DiMaNo is amazing), sometimes it's hard to pin down who the actual players are...

Case in point, the player who beat Life in the quarterfinals is actually IMYonghwa, not a no-name Terran called Absolute. All those scores you have with Absolute are invalid.

Edit: Looks like the bracket on Liquipedia is already more up-to-date than whichever source you got your data from. All thanks to DiMaNo's hard work.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_6/International_Regional_1

Thanks for the heads up. Liquipedia was our source, actually, and they also listed Absolute (T) instead of Yonghwa (P) at the time. (Check the history.)

Fixed now. This puts Life back in first place.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Tsubbi
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany7979 Posts
January 24 2013 14:13 GMT
#13
life not on 1st place autmatically invalidates the whole ranking

on a serious note i dont think taking online qualifier results into account is a good idea unless we are sure the data is 100% correct, we arent even sure whether the games have been walkovers or other players than their account name suggests played

just saw above that absolute doesnt even exist and was in fact yongwha haha
kiekaboe
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands503 Posts
January 24 2013 14:13 GMT
#14
On January 24 2013 22:43 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 22:38 Conti wrote:
I'm just doing whatever I can to avoid learning for exams. >.>

Seriously though, we do need more volunteers! There's tons of stuff to do, and given TheBB's obsession with adding cool new features to the site practically every week, I doubt we'll run out of work soon.

Stuff you can do:
  • Add matches do the ever growing database!
  • Categorize matches into events to make them easier to navigate! For older events (pre 2011) this turns into a fun puzzle game of finding the exact matchups, dates and results from all over the internet!
  • Add teams! And more importantly, keep the team lists up to date! Be the first to update a recent player signing for that extra warm fuzzy feeling in your tummy.
  • Find errors and correct them. A wrong date here, mistaken players with the same name there. We'll never run out of those.
  • Add various information about players, such as real names, birth dates and external links!
  • NEW FEATURE: Add well known aliases of players and teams!
  • Poke TheBB for new features! New feature implementation guaranteed!*
  • And much more!

It's fun for the whole family!

*Guarantee not guaranteed


Best part.
Me: "Hey Eivind, can you please implement XX without breaking the whole database"
TheBB: "Sure"
Me: "U BROKE IT"
TheBB: "Sorry about that"


both comments are so true lol
theBB keeps adding cool new features and it's lots of fun working on the site

On January 24 2013 22:53 sitromit wrote:
Your scores are wrong. When you use data from stuff like IPL's online international qualifier, you need to keep in mind that the connections between account names you see in the brackets and the actual players are tenuous at best, and while the people who update the Liquipedia do their best (DiMaNo is amazing), sometimes it's hard to pin down who the actual players are...

Case in point, the player who beat Life in the quarterfinals is actually IMYonghwa, not a no-name Terran called Absolute. All those scores you have with Absolute are invalid.

Edit: Looks like the bracket on Liquipedia is already more up-to-date than whichever source you got your data from. All thanks to DiMaNo's hard work. He did a lot of detective work on his own, trying to figure out who the players behind the account names really are.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_6/International_Regional_1


sorry, my bad... When I was looking on Liquipedia yesterday it was saying Absolute Didn't check it afterwards
http://aligulac.com check it out for stats :)
sitromit
Profile Joined June 2011
7051 Posts
January 24 2013 14:15 GMT
#15
On January 24 2013 23:10 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 22:53 sitromit wrote:
Your scores are wrong. When you use data from stuff like IPL's online international qualifier, you need to keep in mind that the connections between account names you see in the brackets and the actual players are tenuous at best, and while the people who update the Liquipedia do their best (DiMaNo is amazing), sometimes it's hard to pin down who the actual players are...

Case in point, the player who beat Life in the quarterfinals is actually IMYonghwa, not a no-name Terran called Absolute. All those scores you have with Absolute are invalid.

Edit: Looks like the bracket on Liquipedia is already more up-to-date than whichever source you got your data from. All thanks to DiMaNo's hard work.

http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/IGN_ProLeague_Season_6/International_Regional_1

Thanks for the heads up. Liquipedia was our source, actually, and they also listed Absolute (T) instead of Yonghwa (P) at the time. (Check the history.)

Fixed now. This puts Life back in first place.


Yes, I know Liquipedia was wrong initially, that's why I said you need to be careful when you use scores like this. Losira was Tarson in the brackets, until we figured out who it really was, for example.
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 24 2013 14:18 GMT
#16
On January 24 2013 23:13 Tsubbi wrote:
just saw above that absolute doesnt even exist and was in fact yongwha haha

Ha, yeah, that was a fail. But to be fair, he DOES exist.

http://aligulac.com/players/1530/
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Tsubbi
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany7979 Posts
January 24 2013 14:20 GMT
#17
On January 24 2013 23:18 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2013 23:13 Tsubbi wrote:
just saw above that absolute doesnt even exist and was in fact yongwha haha

Ha, yeah, that was a fail. But to be fair, he DOES exist.

http://aligulac.com/players/1530/


fair enough anyways i LOVE you website and all the work you put into it! keeps getting better and better too
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
January 24 2013 14:22 GMT
#18
..which is precisely why we need more guys helping out with this. More eyes > less errors.
sitromit
Profile Joined June 2011
7051 Posts
January 24 2013 14:22 GMT
#19
This brings up an issue though. For example, one reason we figured out that Tarson was in fact Losira, is because I asked "how on earth did Tarson beat Ragnarok?".

The Absolute=Yonghwa connection would have been figured out sooner or later, since Yonghwa went deep in the tournament, but because Losira got 2-0'ed by Life in the next round after beating Ragnarok, that one could have easily stayed undetected, and stayed in the brackets as Tarson.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 14:26:16
January 24 2013 14:25 GMT
#20
On January 24 2013 23:22 sitromit wrote:
This brings up an issue though. For example, one reason we figured out that Tarson was in fact Losira, is because I asked "how on earth did Tarson beat Ragnarok?".

The Absolute=Yonghwa connection would have been figured out sooner or later, since Yonghwa went deep in the tournament, but because Losira got 2-0'ed by Life in the next round after beating Ragnarok, that one could have easily stayed undetected, and stayed in the brackets as Tarson.

It's definitely something that comes up. For instance, while categorizing some older events with the new event feature I found Vile's Illusion playing in some smaller Korean tournaments, strangely enough. Turns out it was actually (Wiki)IceCream, who used to play under the name Illusion at the time. As I said above, mistakes happen. The database (like any other database) is not error-free. The more guys we get to actually look at the results, though, the better and more reliable it becomes.
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
January 24 2013 14:27 GMT
#21
Great work, (try to) keep it up!
AdministratorBreak the chains
bpgbcg
Profile Joined February 2011
United States74 Posts
January 24 2013 16:06 GMT
#22
It seems that the "Most Specialized" category now again includes people with very few games played (J). Is this intentional?
I don't have the creativity to think of a signature.
Mortal
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
2943 Posts
January 24 2013 16:08 GMT
#23
Maru up there? Since when is he not awful again? (genuine curiosity, I thought he hadn't been good since the first GSL).
The universe created an audience for itself.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 24 2013 16:50 GMT
#24
On January 25 2013 01:08 Mortal wrote:
Maru up there? Since when is he not awful again? (genuine curiosity, I thought he hadn't been good since the first GSL).

http://aligulac.com/players/49/period/76/
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32740 Posts
January 24 2013 16:59 GMT
#25
A huge shift occured, I didn't expect someone like HyuN to fall so hard, or Maru to jump just because he did well at one team league tournament :/

I still find somethings quite dubious, but I guess it has a general ranking of players, just not as accurate as I think it is.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Mortal
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
2943 Posts
January 24 2013 17:05 GMT
#26
On January 25 2013 01:59 PhoenixVoid wrote:
A huge shift occured, I didn't expect someone like HyuN to fall so hard, or Maru to jump just because he did well at one team league tournament :/

I still find somethings quite dubious, but I guess it has a general ranking of players, just not as accurate as I think it is.


That's what I thought both about Hyun and when I saw Maru. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's nowhere near the caliber of players he finds himself among on the rankings. Consistency seems to be suspect here :x
The universe created an audience for itself.
ganil
Profile Joined August 2009
253 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 17:40:39
January 24 2013 17:29 GMT
#27
Wow ! very nice improvements !
Apolo
Profile Joined May 2010
Portugal1259 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 17:33:36
January 24 2013 17:32 GMT
#28
Was it normal in BW for all of the very top players to have below 64% winrate ?
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
January 24 2013 17:46 GMT
#29
On January 25 2013 02:32 Apolo wrote:
Was it normal in BW for all of the very top players to have below 64% winrate ?

Yeah. A winrate of 70% and above was usually considered extraordinary and only held by the likes of Flash or Jaedong, if I remember correctly.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 24 2013 17:48 GMT
#30
On January 25 2013 02:05 Mortal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2013 01:59 PhoenixVoid wrote:
A huge shift occured, I didn't expect someone like HyuN to fall so hard, or Maru to jump just because he did well at one team league tournament :/

I still find somethings quite dubious, but I guess it has a general ranking of players, just not as accurate as I think it is.


That's what I thought both about Hyun and when I saw Maru. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's nowhere near the caliber of players he finds himself among on the rankings. Consistency seems to be suspect here :x


Maru only won during the last period, whereas HyuN lost to players with much lower ranking than him.
HyuN's results during the last period
Remember that when you are highly ranked, losing to almost anyone will cost you points.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
MasterOfPuppets
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Romania6942 Posts
January 24 2013 18:01 GMT
#31
On January 25 2013 02:32 Apolo wrote:
Was it normal in BW for all of the very top players to have below 64% winrate ?


It depends. Brood War was far less volatile in terms of who could beat who simply because of game design and the way it allowed a skilled player to outperform his opponent in more than just a few ways.

FlaSh is the only one who still holds an overall winrate of over 70%, whereas the other S-Class players fall somewhere between 60-70%. Of course I'm talking overall here, not just a streak in a tournament, or a month, or even a year, but the entire career. I'd still wager towards saying no, it wasn't normal, unless they were already years past their prime (think NaDa, oov, July etc)

But yeah I don't think a comparison to BW is warranted since the game was much more stable, with fewer upsets and fewer tournaments in general. Because, imagine if FlaSh, JaeDong or sAviOr had to play in a different major tournament every other month, most of which being gauntlet 3 or 4 day events with open brackets and online qualifiers allowing all sorts of darkhorses through, not to mention the toll travel would take on them... I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be able to reach quite the same peaks that they actually did. Then again, we've seen that in SC2 even the preparation format of GSL and OSL yields a lot of unpredictability and upsets still. Who knows...

[yes this was worth my 1337th post]
"my shaft scares me too" - strenx 2014
Ender985
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Spain910 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 18:14:23
January 24 2013 18:14 GMT
#32
@OP: Something is amiss here:
Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
MVP 95.07%
StarTale 94.62%
Incredible Miracle 92.80%
SK Telecom T1 90.68%
FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
AZUBU 87.80%
Prime 86.12%
Team Liquid 84.72%
Evil Geniuses 83.87%
STX SouL 83.81%

StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.


Otherwise, good job
Member of the Pirate Party - direct democracy, institutional transparency, and freedom of information
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 24 2013 20:48 GMT
#33
On January 25 2013 03:14 Ender985 wrote:
@OP: Something is amiss here:
Show nested quote +
Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
MVP 95.07%
StarTale 94.62%
Incredible Miracle 92.80%
SK Telecom T1 90.68%
FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
AZUBU 87.80%
Prime 86.12%
Team Liquid 84.72%
Evil Geniuses 83.87%
STX SouL 83.81%

StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.

Otherwise, good job

Unless you mean the has/have mistake, I don't quite see it. Thanks for being specific....
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
ACrow
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6583 Posts
January 24 2013 20:50 GMT
#34
Thank you for all the effort you continue to put into this. You, sir, are a scholar and gentleman!
Get off my lawn, young punks
delHospital
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Poland261 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-01-24 21:15:48
January 24 2013 21:13 GMT
#35
There's some bug that makes list 1 look kinda silly.
+ Show Spoiler +

Best overall
Orly (1442)
Best vs. Protoss
Orly (1749)
Best vs. Terran
Orly (1521)
Best vs. Zerg
Orly (1056)
Most specialised vP
Orly (+307)
Most specialised vT
Orly (+79)
Most specialised vZ
Orly (+-386)
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
January 24 2013 21:18 GMT
#36
On January 25 2013 06:13 delHospital wrote:
There's some bug that makes list 1 look kinda silly.
+ Show Spoiler +

Best overall
Orly (1442)
Best vs. Protoss
Orly (1749)
Best vs. Terran
Orly (1521)
Best vs. Zerg
Orly (1056)
Most specialised vP
Orly (+307)
Most specialised vT
Orly (+79)
Most specialised vZ
Orly (+-386)

Haven't you heard of Orly's dominant run back then? He was literally unbeatable!

On a more serious note, this appears to be a result of Orly being the only player in that period who had enough matches to be listed in the ranking. Here you can see a list of all games being played in that period.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 25 2013 08:28 GMT
#37
On January 25 2013 06:13 delHospital wrote:
There's some bug that makes list 1 look kinda silly.
+ Show Spoiler +

Best overall
Orly (1442)
Best vs. Protoss
Orly (1749)
Best vs. Terran
Orly (1521)
Best vs. Zerg
Orly (1056)
Most specialised vP
Orly (+307)
Most specialised vT
Orly (+79)
Most specialised vZ
Orly (+-386)


Orly is badass :D
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
HolydaKing
Profile Joined February 2010
21254 Posts
January 25 2013 09:37 GMT
#38
On January 25 2013 05:48 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2013 03:14 Ender985 wrote:
@OP: Something is amiss here:
Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
MVP 95.07%
StarTale 94.62%
Incredible Miracle 92.80%
SK Telecom T1 90.68%
FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
AZUBU 87.80%
Prime 86.12%
Team Liquid 84.72%
Evil Geniuses 83.87%
STX SouL 83.81%

StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.

Otherwise, good job

Unless you mean the has/have mistake, I don't quite see it. Thanks for being specific....

Nah, i actually think he means the Parting bit. You say:

"StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly)."

But PartinG is on SKT now and didn't stay. Perhaps i understand it wrong, but idk.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 25 2013 09:50 GMT
#39
On January 25 2013 18:37 HolydaKing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2013 05:48 TheBB wrote:
On January 25 2013 03:14 Ender985 wrote:
@OP: Something is amiss here:
Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
MVP 95.07%
StarTale 94.62%
Incredible Miracle 92.80%
SK Telecom T1 90.68%
FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
AZUBU 87.80%
Prime 86.12%
Team Liquid 84.72%
Evil Geniuses 83.87%
STX SouL 83.81%

StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.

Otherwise, good job

Unless you mean the has/have mistake, I don't quite see it. Thanks for being specific....

Nah, i actually think he means the Parting bit. You say:

"StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly)."

But PartinG is on SKT now and didn't stay. Perhaps i understand it wrong, but idk.


Definitely a mistake. Great catch
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
JOJOsc2news
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
3000 Posts
January 25 2013 09:57 GMT
#40
Thanks for putting so much effort into this. Please continue!
✉ Tweets @sc2channel ⌦ Blog: http://www.teamliquid.net/blog/JOJO ⌫ "Arbiterssss... build more arbiterssss." Click 'Profile' for awesome shiro art!
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 25 2013 10:18 GMT
#41
On January 25 2013 18:37 HolydaKing wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 25 2013 05:48 TheBB wrote:
On January 25 2013 03:14 Ender985 wrote:
@OP: Something is amiss here:
Top 10 teams by all-kill score:
MVP 95.07%
StarTale 94.62%
Incredible Miracle 92.80%
SK Telecom T1 90.68%
FXOpen e-Sports Kore 89.77%
AZUBU 87.80%
Prime 86.12%
Team Liquid 84.72%
Evil Geniuses 83.87%
STX SouL 83.81%

StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly). MVP and IM has caught up a bit now. The Proleague-style list looks almost identical, except that STX passes EG, TL drops out of the list and Woongjin sneaks in on 10th place.

Otherwise, good job

Unless you mean the has/have mistake, I don't quite see it. Thanks for being specific....

Nah, i actually think he means the Parting bit. You say:

"StarTale has lost some players, and those who stayed lost some points (Parting most significantly)."

But PartinG is on SKT now and didn't stay. Perhaps i understand it wrong, but idk.

Uh, yeah, that's a derp on my part.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Ender985
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Spain910 Posts
January 25 2013 11:17 GMT
#42
@TheBB: I sent you a PM, but anyway, what I meant is that in the list there is TL (8th) and STX (10th), while in the writeup you mention that TL has dropped out of the list and that Woongjin is now in 10th position. Either something is wrong or I am misunderstanding something.
Member of the Pirate Party - direct democracy, institutional transparency, and freedom of information
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
January 25 2013 11:21 GMT
#43
On January 25 2013 20:17 Ender985 wrote:
@TheBB: I sent you a PM, but anyway, what I meant is that in the list there is TL (8th) and STX (10th), while in the writeup you mention that TL has dropped out of the list and that Woongjin is now in 10th position. Either something is wrong or I am misunderstanding something.

There are 2 different team ranking lists, 1 for the all kill format and 1 for the proleague format. The list in the OP is for the all kill format. When he said TL falls out and Stars is 10th was for the Proleague format list.
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Ender985
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Spain910 Posts
January 25 2013 11:50 GMT
#44
Oh I see, I was confused. Thanks.
Member of the Pirate Party - direct democracy, institutional transparency, and freedom of information
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
January 26 2013 12:23 GMT
#45
Pretty useful during LR-threads as well btw :D
Will show you who has the biggest chance whenever a match has been played. Spoiler for life vs mkp in iron squid
+ Show Spoiler +
      (3068) Life 2-1 MarineKing (1920)
-----------------------------------------------
87.07% 3-1
11.26% 3-2 2-3 1.67%
-----------------------------------------------
98.33% 1.67%

Median outcome
Life 3-1 MarineKing
Estimated by Aligulac. Make another.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
graNite
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Germany4434 Posts
January 26 2013 12:54 GMT
#46
Why is there such a big gap between Bomber and Mvp in the Hall of Fame? I thought Mvp was dominating much longer than Bomber (did he ever really dominate?)
"Oink oink, bitches" - Tasteless on Pigbaby winning a map against Flash
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
January 26 2013 15:05 GMT
#47
Just implemented prediction for GSL-style groups: http://aligulac.com/predict/

On January 26 2013 21:54 graNite wrote:
Why is there such a big gap between Bomber and Mvp in the Hall of Fame? I thought Mvp was dominating much longer than Bomber (did he ever really dominate?)

Well, there could be several reasons for this. Remember that the rating is strictly about winning games, not tournaments. Mvp is very good at the latter, and that's what people remember. They are correlated but not identical.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Genie1
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada333 Posts
January 26 2013 18:47 GMT
#48
Only one foreign Terran is sad :-/
[RAVEN ONLINE] "You don't talk like us" [....CAW CAW] -QXC
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