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[Nov] TLPD Race Winrate Graphs - Page 28

Forum Index > SC2 General
798 CommentsPost a Reply
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Laughing
Profile Joined January 2011
United States44 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-08 15:27:20
December 08 2011 15:25 GMT
#541
Imo the graph reflects quite heavily the meta-game, best example I can give is how ghost timings against toss started getting popular around mid 2011, which are terran's highest points in the graph.

Edit*: Ignoring the "weird" December period.
hasuterrans
Profile Joined April 2009
United States614 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-08 15:32:14
December 08 2011 15:28 GMT
#542
On December 09 2011 00:16 Deadeight wrote:
Differences of a few percent, that's pretty cool. I hope people did note the scale/values not just the relative magnitudes of the lines. A few percent is what I would call balanced pretty much, totally accountable to "meta-game" shifts and the rise of good players (as I am assuming the data is done by games, not by individual player win percentage, and better players get further in tournaments and win more games...). That's a point actually.

@hasuterrans Did you take the win percentage of all P, T & Z games? I'm guessing so from the OP. Another way to do it is to average individual players win percentages in particular match ups, so that exceptional individual players (e.g. Nestea, or MC when he dominated) aren't over-represented just because they play more games. I defer to your superior knowledge on this ofc but just interested on your thinking on it.

+ Show Spoiler +
The more you win, the further in the tournament you get, so the more games you play. Overall I guess that doesn't make a big difference though and all three races probably have an identical gaussian distribution of players, so same effect upon all three.


I didn't make the graph I just posted it. You can tweet the guy (see link in op) who makes these or pm him. He's super responsive to suggestions. His TL id is Ctuchik.
Kznn
Profile Joined March 2011
Brazil9072 Posts
December 08 2011 15:37 GMT
#543
Protoss <3
rakoth
Profile Joined August 2011
Greece55 Posts
December 08 2011 15:52 GMT
#544
Every matchup within the 55-45 range is pretty ok imo, there are other stuff that can influence balance such as maps, metagame shifts and the time it takes the other race to respond, some players who perform really well and influence the percentage (especially in Korea) etc. The game looks pretty balanced right now, well untill the new HOTS units come along and destroy this
DreamChaser
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
1649 Posts
December 08 2011 16:01 GMT
#545
I didn't know toss were doing so poorly against zerg, but to be fair i only watch HerO's games and hes basically inflating the graph loll
Plays against every MU with nexus first.
Vapaach
Profile Joined February 2011
Finland994 Posts
December 08 2011 16:03 GMT
#546
Everything is looking quite nice But I think tvz is a matchup that needs to be addressed. Z seems too weak.
If you never try you never know. Sase - Mana - TLO - WhiteRa - Naniwa - Sheth - HuK
Applesqt
Profile Joined May 2011
United States206 Posts
December 08 2011 16:19 GMT
#547
On December 09 2011 01:03 Vapaach wrote:
Everything is looking quite nice But I think tvz is a matchup that needs to be addressed. Z seems too weak.

I'm guessing you play Zerg
Kira__
Profile Joined April 2011
Sweden2672 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-08 16:22:44
December 08 2011 16:22 GMT
#548
On December 09 2011 01:19 Applesqt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 01:03 Vapaach wrote:
Everything is looking quite nice But I think tvz is a matchup that needs to be addressed. Z seems too weak.

I'm guessing you play Zerg


Well if you use these statistics to claim that terran was overpowered versus protoss before, or that it's the other way around since the patch... then you will have to draw the conclusion that terran is overpowered against zerg.


Edit: Personally I don't think this is the case; I think in general that win percentages is a useless way of measuring balance. But that's just me.
The truth is, Yagami-kun, I suspect that you may in fact be Kira.
Gravity3
Profile Joined June 2011
Bulgaria17 Posts
December 08 2011 16:31 GMT
#549
TvP is still imbalanced ,fix more Blizzard but nerf protoss instead this time.

User was warned for this post
Scan the island.
FlamingTurd
Profile Joined April 2010
United States1059 Posts
December 08 2011 16:31 GMT
#550
Hmm that is pretty awesome, although I'd really like to see there be more games than 279 ?? Did I really read that right? They did the stats off the results of 279 games? Honestly, there can be a significant difference between different batches of 279 games.. That's definitely NOT enough games to post stats about to be statistically correct. At least make it a 1k minimum or something before posting like this :-/ Hopefully I'm just reading it wrong.
Nerf MMMT!!! Liquid`Ret Hwaiting!!!
SeaSwift
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Scotland4486 Posts
December 08 2011 16:33 GMT
#551
On December 09 2011 01:31 Gravity3 wrote:
TvP is still imbalanced ,fix more Blizzard but nerf protoss instead this time.


Yup. These stats conclusively prove beyond doubt that those cheaper upgrades and the EMP nerf makes PvT absolutely broken in favour of the Protoss.

...
Wtamer
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada131 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-08 16:39:28
December 08 2011 16:36 GMT
#552
On December 09 2011 01:31 FlamingTurd wrote:
Hmm that is pretty awesome, although I'd really like to see there be more games than 279 ?? Did I really read that right? They did the stats off the results of 279 games? Honestly, there can be a significant difference between different batches of 279 games.. That's definitely NOT enough games to post stats about to be statistically correct. At least make it a 1k minimum or something before posting like this :-/ Hopefully I'm just reading it wrong.

Yeah, for the korean stats that's not a whole lot of games.
On the other hand, there's not exactly a whole lot of korean games PERIOD, so it'd be kind of hard to get 1000 games/month for the korean stats. Just the way things work out unfortunately. :/
So take the stats with a grain of salt, I guess? Don't overreact to sudden changes?

EDIT:
On December 09 2011 01:31 Gravity3 wrote:
TvP is still imbalanced ,fix more Blizzard but nerf protoss instead this time.

Seriously, dude. It's been one month. One bad month. Just chill and let the game develop a little.
Tomken
Profile Joined January 2010
Norway1144 Posts
December 08 2011 16:42 GMT
#553
P>T, T>Z, Z>P 'same' as bw? kekekeke
MBCGame HERO FIGHTING!!!~
sVnteen
Profile Joined January 2011
Germany2238 Posts
December 08 2011 16:47 GMT
#554
On December 05 2011 20:19 rpgalon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2011 20:17 StiX wrote:
Does anyone thinks its funny that in:
PvT Protoss has the better end
ZvT Terran has the better end
ZvP Zerg has the better end
?

it's the easiest way to achiev balance, a counter systen



lol
so you think blizzard is trying to balance the game by making Terran win vs zerg zerg win vs Protoss and Protoss winning vs Terran?

thats kinda stupid since it is obviously not the way it is
MY LIFE STARTS NOW ♥
Perfect
Profile Joined August 2010
United States322 Posts
December 08 2011 17:00 GMT
#555
Very interesting. Must by why I (terran player) dropped down to diamond.
SarcasmMonster
Profile Joined October 2011
3136 Posts
December 08 2011 17:02 GMT
#556
On December 09 2011 02:00 Perfect wrote:
Very interesting. Must by why I (terran player) dropped down to diamond.


It's also the reason why I'm not a bonjwa yet.
MMA: The true King of Wings
creamer
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada128 Posts
December 08 2011 17:06 GMT
#557
I am so happy we will not see protoss crying any more that was getting old. Nice to see the game getting balanced
MKP - Best player of all time
Bajsgrodan
Profile Joined November 2010
Afghanistan408 Posts
December 08 2011 17:10 GMT
#558
>zerg player< "Z is weak buff it"
>protoss player< "toss is weak buff toss"
>terran player< "I like nachos!"

Why would anyone who plays anything else then random ever have any saying in whats balanced or whats not? I mean clearly evry opinion here is biased as hell:D
My name sucks!
Raambo11
Profile Joined April 2011
United States828 Posts
December 08 2011 17:43 GMT
#559
On December 09 2011 01:22 Kira__ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 01:19 Applesqt wrote:
On December 09 2011 01:03 Vapaach wrote:
Everything is looking quite nice But I think tvz is a matchup that needs to be addressed. Z seems too weak.

I'm guessing you play Zerg


Well if you use these statistics to claim that terran was overpowered versus protoss before, or that it's the other way around since the patch... then you will have to draw the conclusion that terran is overpowered against zerg.


Edit: Personally I don't think this is the case; I think in general that win percentages is a useless way of measuring balance. But that's just me.


The KR stats may be surprising, but I can virtually assure you the reason is lack of infestor usage as everyone in KR goes muta ling bling. The more people start to use infestor the more Z will start winning vs T.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
December 08 2011 17:51 GMT
#560
On December 09 2011 02:43 Raambo11 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2011 01:22 Kira__ wrote:
On December 09 2011 01:19 Applesqt wrote:
On December 09 2011 01:03 Vapaach wrote:
Everything is looking quite nice But I think tvz is a matchup that needs to be addressed. Z seems too weak.

I'm guessing you play Zerg


Well if you use these statistics to claim that terran was overpowered versus protoss before, or that it's the other way around since the patch... then you will have to draw the conclusion that terran is overpowered against zerg.


Edit: Personally I don't think this is the case; I think in general that win percentages is a useless way of measuring balance. But that's just me.


The KR stats may be surprising, but I can virtually assure you the reason is lack of infestor usage as everyone in KR goes muta ling bling. The more people start to use infestor the more Z will start winning vs T.

and what is that based upon?
"I can assure you, once Terrans start to build only medivacs without any units that can actually shoot the terran winrates will reach 100%"...

There are various reasons why players play infestors or why players play mutalisks. From what you can read on TL, you will hear most high level Terrans say that they are more comfortable against early Infestors than against early mutalisks.
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