[IEM] Katowice Day 2 - Page 52

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Schelim

Austria11528 Posts

January 18 2013 15:59 GMT

#1021

GRUBBY!!!!!!

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 18 2013 16:00 GMT

#1022

On January 19 2013 00:59 DarkLordOlli wrote:

Show nested quote +

I've been told 5 different versions by now and still don't know what the stakes were exactly. Code A seed I heard a few times.

The Code A seed versions are incorrect

mijellin

China740 Posts

January 18 2013 16:00 GMT

#1023

I was talking about the BW scandal. Facetious comment is all. No need to sharpen the pitchforks!

syltz

Sweden187 Posts

January 18 2013 16:00 GMT

#1024

On January 19 2013 00:51 Extenz wrote:
is it lagging like fuck for me only?

Nope, lagging for me too

Anta

Germany434 Posts

January 18 2013 16:00 GMT

#1025

On January 18 2013 19:20 TheBB wrote:
It's probably the moment of truth!

+ Show Spoiler [Group A] +

Group A

Snute
      Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.21-3.79)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 88.64%
      Most likely place: 1st (48.54%)

TLO
      Expected score: 3.17-1.83 (sets: 7.26-4.91)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 72.80%
      Most likely place: 2nd (26.96%)

Dream
      Expected score: 2.86-2.14 (sets: 6.80-5.60)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 59.35%
      Most likely place: 3rd (21.67%)

Grubby
      Expected score: 2.49-2.51 (sets: 6.08-6.00)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 44.68%
      Most likely place: 4th (26.79%)

mOOnGLaDe
      Expected score: 2.23-2.77 (sets: 5.64-6.50)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 33.70%
      Most likely place: 5th (34.82%)

Tarson
      Expected score: 0.48-4.52 (sets: 2.13-9.33)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.84%
      Most likely place: 6th (86.75%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
     mOOnGLaDe:    5.51%   34.82%   25.97%   17.81%   10.87%    5.02%
        Grubby:    2.70%   25.83%   26.79%   21.84%   15.29%    7.56%
         Snute:    0.22%    3.30%    7.85%   14.71%   25.40%   48.54%
         Dream:    3.66%   16.26%   20.74%   21.67%   21.32%   16.35%
           TLO:    1.16%    9.62%   16.43%   23.31%   26.96%   22.53%
        Tarson:   86.75%   10.18%    2.23%    0.66%    0.16%    0.01%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
     mOOnGLaDe:    1.76%   20.87%   40.07%   27.99%    8.45%    0.87%
        Grubby:    0.55%   13.87%   36.63%   34.93%   12.57%    1.45%
         Snute:    0.03%    0.75%    7.73%   27.81%   41.42%   22.26%
         Dream:    1.11%    9.07%   26.35%   35.49%   22.54%    5.43%
           TLO:    0.17%    3.79%   19.76%   38.84%   29.74%    7.70%
        Tarson:   59.67%   33.28%    6.47%    0.55%    0.02%         

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
     mOOnGLaDe:    0.05%    0.29%    0.58%    1.13%    3.87%    6.98%    7.56%    9.51%   13.69%   13.09%   10.05%   10.27%    9.14%    5.22%    3.42%    2.86%    1.31%    0.53%    0.28%    0.12%    0.03%
        Grubby:    0.01%    0.09%    0.19%    0.47%    2.05%    4.35%    5.34%    7.25%   11.84%   12.83%   10.72%   11.98%   12.00%    7.61%    4.95%    4.30%    2.33%    0.88%    0.45%    0.31%    0.07%
         Snute:             0.01%    0.00%    0.02%    0.06%    0.17%    0.33%    0.74%    1.77%    2.89%    3.69%    6.58%   10.06%   10.20%   10.61%   14.85%   13.30%    8.38%    7.85%    6.46%    2.03%
         Dream:    0.02%    0.15%    0.31%    0.57%    1.47%    2.69%    3.49%    5.17%    8.09%    9.77%    9.21%   11.21%   12.39%    9.49%    7.97%    7.69%    4.76%    2.49%    1.85%    0.98%    0.22%
           TLO:    0.00%    0.03%    0.05%    0.11%    0.47%    1.06%    1.51%    2.74%    5.73%    7.40%    7.94%   11.14%   14.07%   11.41%    9.78%   10.68%    7.33%    3.62%    2.71%    1.76%    0.45%
        Tarson:   12.35%   23.90%   16.62%   11.94%   13.67%   10.15%    4.60%    3.05%    2.12%    0.92%    0.34%    0.21%    0.08%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group B] +

Group B

PartinG
      Expected score: 4.51-0.49 (sets: 9.31-1.99)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 99.18%
      Most likely place: 1st (75.35%)

LucifroN
      Expected score: 3.68-1.32 (sets: 7.99-3.71)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 91.46%
      Most likely place: 2nd (53.89%)

Bly
      Expected score: 2.32-2.68 (sets: 5.65-6.19)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 40.86%
      Most likely place: 4th (31.25%)

MaNa
      Expected score: 2.21-2.79 (sets: 5.52-6.39)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 35.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (33.37%)

Tefel
      Expected score: 2.17-2.83 (sets: 5.30-6.52)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 33.47%
      Most likely place: 5th (33.74%)

Siphonn
      Expected score: 0.12-4.88 (sets: 0.87-9.84)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.03%
      Most likely place: 6th (96.10%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
       Siphonn:   96.10%    3.55%    0.32%    0.03%                  
           Bly:    0.78%   27.11%   31.25%   29.64%    9.77%    1.45%
      LucifroN:    0.01%    2.13%    6.40%   16.82%   53.89%   20.75%
       PartinG:    0.00%    0.11%    0.71%    3.61%   20.22%   75.35%
          MaNa:    0.85%   33.37%   30.78%   24.18%    8.99%    1.83%
         Tefel:    2.25%   33.74%   30.54%   25.73%    7.13%    0.61%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
       Siphonn:   88.44%   11.16%    0.40%    0.00%                  
           Bly:    0.40%   15.35%   43.79%   32.91%    7.17%    0.37%
      LucifroN:    0.00%    0.50%    6.76%   30.17%   49.56%   13.01%
       PartinG:    0.00%    0.01%    0.40%    6.45%   34.96%   58.18%
          MaNa:    0.46%   21.28%   43.26%   27.71%    6.75%    0.53%
         Tefel:    1.22%   20.15%   44.43%   29.39%    4.70%    0.10%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
       Siphonn:   43.39%   33.82%    9.95%    5.62%    4.83%    1.72%    0.35%    0.19%    0.10%    0.02%    0.01%                                                                                          
           Bly:    0.01%    0.08%    0.15%    0.45%    2.43%    5.17%    5.95%    8.57%   15.32%   14.96%   10.95%   12.06%   11.21%    5.59%    3.01%    2.42%    1.17%    0.31%    0.14%    0.06%    0.01%
      LucifroN:                      0.00%             0.03%    0.11%    0.22%    0.43%    1.36%    2.53%    3.40%    6.14%   11.38%   10.88%   11.79%   18.11%   16.19%    7.14%    4.61%    4.26%    1.42%
       PartinG:                                        0.00%    0.00%             0.01%    0.03%    0.12%    0.23%    0.64%    1.89%    2.92%    4.01%    9.76%   14.91%   11.79%   15.06%   24.37%   14.28%
          MaNa:    0.02%    0.09%    0.18%    0.49%    3.27%    7.20%    7.64%    9.25%   15.33%   14.86%   10.11%   10.22%    9.34%    5.01%    2.89%    2.29%    1.17%    0.34%    0.20%    0.08%    0.02%
         Tefel:    0.06%    0.26%    0.43%    1.05%    4.14%    7.28%    7.43%   10.41%   16.38%   14.22%    9.94%   11.31%    8.98%    3.86%    2.07%    1.48%    0.57%    0.09%    0.02%    0.02%    0.00%

+ Show Spoiler [Group C] +

Group C

YoDa
      Expected score: 3.77-1.23 (sets: 8.23-3.90)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 89.85%
      Most likely place: 1st (57.05%)

Socke
      Expected score: 2.85-2.15 (sets: 6.74-5.51)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 65.94%
      Most likely place: 2nd (25.88%)

jookTo
      Expected score: 2.53-2.47 (sets: 6.22-6.16)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 52.55%
      Most likely place: 3rd (20.68%)

DieStar
      Expected score: 2.01-2.99 (sets: 5.40-7.04)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 32.92%
      Most likely place: 6th (25.90%)

Verdi
      Expected score: 2.02-2.98 (sets: 5.24-6.95)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 31.64%
      Most likely place: 5th (23.57%)

Nerchio
      Expected score: 1.84-3.16 (sets: 5.03-7.29)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 27.11%
      Most likely place: 6th (31.10%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        jookTo:   12.47%   16.43%   18.56%   20.68%   20.64%   11.22%
         Socke:    6.35%   11.08%   16.63%   22.54%   25.88%   17.53%
       Nerchio:   31.10%   23.73%   18.06%   13.67%    9.52%    3.92%
          YoDa:    1.16%    3.02%    5.98%   10.87%   21.93%   57.05%
         Verdi:   23.03%   23.57%   21.77%   16.78%   10.76%    4.10%
       DieStar:   25.90%   22.17%   19.01%   15.46%   11.28%    6.18%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        jookTo:    2.38%   14.00%   32.17%   33.75%   15.40%    2.30%
         Socke:    0.58%    7.68%   27.65%   38.48%   21.60%    4.01%
       Nerchio:    9.28%   29.53%   35.64%   19.89%    5.20%    0.45%
          YoDa:    0.08%    1.15%    8.22%   26.46%   40.85%   23.24%
         Verdi:    5.28%   24.74%   39.24%   24.96%    5.41%    0.36%
       DieStar:    7.43%   25.86%   34.81%   23.33%    7.55%    1.01%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        jookTo:    0.08%    0.43%    0.75%    1.17%    2.60%    4.55%    5.37%    7.22%   10.69%   11.06%   10.09%   11.45%   11.09%    7.68%    5.73%    4.88%    2.78%    1.24%    0.71%    0.33%    0.08%
         Socke:    0.01%    0.10%    0.19%    0.33%    1.14%    2.26%    3.03%    4.79%    8.38%   10.03%    9.73%   12.44%   13.49%    9.85%    7.90%    7.17%    4.72%    2.08%    1.37%    0.82%    0.18%
       Nerchio:    0.41%    2.03%    3.24%    4.04%    7.02%   10.32%    9.82%   10.72%   12.68%   10.63%    7.97%    7.42%    5.73%    3.25%    2.20%    1.51%    0.60%    0.23%    0.13%    0.04%    0.01%
          YoDa:             0.01%    0.01%    0.04%    0.15%    0.26%    0.46%    0.98%    2.11%    3.00%    4.12%    6.57%    9.70%    9.88%   10.91%   14.42%   12.51%    8.52%    7.96%    6.36%    2.04%
         Verdi:    0.25%    1.15%    1.80%    2.74%    5.73%    8.52%    8.68%   10.89%   13.76%   12.04%    9.23%    9.11%    7.33%    3.91%    2.15%    1.61%    0.72%    0.20%    0.12%    0.05%    0.01%
       DieStar:    0.32%    1.40%    2.47%    3.26%    5.81%    8.94%    9.04%    9.55%   12.07%   11.07%    8.85%    8.62%    6.91%    4.25%    3.04%    2.28%    1.11%    0.52%    0.30%    0.17%    0.02%

+ Show Spoiler [Group D] +

Group D

VortiX
      Expected score: 3.84-1.16 (sets: 8.31-3.53)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 93.94%
      Most likely place: 1st (60.61%)

First
      Expected score: 2.93-2.07 (sets: 6.91-5.41)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 67.97%
      Most likely place: 2nd (26.03%)

Kas
      Expected score: 2.47-2.53 (sets: 6.04-6.18)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 50.45%
      Most likely place: 3rd (22.53%)

Golden
      Expected score: 2.11-2.89 (sets: 5.42-6.83)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 36.07%
      Most likely place: 5th (22.47%)

Daisy
      Expected score: 2.05-2.95 (sets: 5.31-6.91)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 32.18%
      Most likely place: 5th (24.40%)

ParanOid
      Expected score: 1.60-3.40 (sets: 4.53-7.66)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 19.39%
      Most likely place: 6th (39.67%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        Golden:   20.90%   22.47%   20.55%   18.15%   13.65%    4.27%
        VortiX:    0.37%    1.59%    4.10%    9.83%   23.51%   60.61%
           Kas:   11.55%   16.92%   21.08%   22.53%   19.85%    8.07%
         First:    5.99%   10.47%   15.56%   20.80%   26.03%   21.14%
         Daisy:   21.51%   24.40%   21.92%   17.39%   10.56%    4.23%
      ParanOid:   39.67%   24.16%   16.78%   11.31%    6.40%    1.68%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        Golden:    5.01%   22.61%   37.22%   26.97%    7.76%    0.44%
        VortiX:    0.00%    0.34%    5.07%   27.20%   44.69%   22.70%
           Kas:    1.88%   14.11%   35.13%   34.56%   13.11%    1.21%
         First:    0.67%    7.64%   25.25%   36.65%   23.86%    5.93%
         Daisy:    5.00%   23.78%   39.17%   25.59%    6.06%    0.41%
      ParanOid:   13.22%   34.88%   34.00%   14.99%    2.79%    0.12%

Set score

                     -10       -9       -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8        9       10
        Golden:    0.22%    1.06%    1.77%    2.39%    4.96%    8.00%    8.14%   10.00%   13.31%   11.55%    9.52%    9.81%    7.87%    4.69%    3.07%    2.19%    0.97%    0.28%    0.10%    0.08%    0.01%
        VortiX:                      0.00%    0.00%    0.03%    0.08%    0.13%    0.34%    1.14%    1.85%    2.68%    5.60%    9.55%   10.57%   10.76%   15.77%   14.98%    8.71%    8.04%    7.30%    2.47%
           Kas:    0.08%    0.34%    0.63%    0.99%    2.56%    4.59%    5.55%    7.58%   11.80%   12.07%   10.46%   12.14%   11.37%    6.83%    5.28%    4.13%    2.24%    0.76%    0.38%    0.19%    0.02%
         First:    0.02%    0.09%    0.20%    0.38%    0.99%    2.20%    3.02%    4.57%    7.58%    9.20%    9.10%   11.73%   12.77%    9.85%    8.45%    8.24%    5.33%    2.78%    2.09%    1.14%    0.26%
         Daisy:    0.27%    1.01%    1.77%    2.49%    5.47%    8.41%    8.36%   10.44%   13.74%   12.29%    9.34%    9.50%    7.39%    4.01%    2.55%    1.79%    0.77%    0.24%    0.10%    0.06%    0.01%
      ParanOid:    0.90%    3.14%    4.73%    5.49%    9.60%   12.49%   10.73%   11.05%   12.29%    9.59%    6.36%    5.67%    3.78%    1.98%    1.05%    0.76%    0.29%    0.07%    0.04%    0.02%

Judging from the other predictions I've seen, people might be overestimating Nerchio and underestimating TLO. Then again, Nerchio has good results since last list update that are not yet accounted for.

wtf this is scarringly accurate

furtunately some upsets today but still almost too accurate o_O

Gonlyrush22

56 Posts

January 18 2013 16:01 GMT

#1026

People are stupid, LucifroN is one of the best players and the best with Stephano in EU, which started IEM asleep and has been reaching their level. You think that EG is wanted to sign LucifroN and Vortix for nothing? (this happened a while ago, and is confirmed by karont3).. Not surprisingly, LucifroN can beat anyone.

Benjamin99

4176 Posts

January 18 2013 16:02 GMT

#1027

On January 19 2013 01:01 Gonlyrush22 wrote:
People are stupid, LucifroN is one of the best players and the best with Stephano in EU, which started asleep and has been reaching their level. You think that EG is wanted to sign LucifroN and Vortix for nothing? (this happened a while ago, and is confirmed by karont3).. Not surprisingly, LucifroN can beat anyone.

Exactly just wait until Lucifron is going full time pro then you going to see a champion