Blizzard Cup Group A

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 3.13-0.87 (sets: 6.54-4.82)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 100.00%
      Most likely place: 2nd (42.93%)

Leenock
      Expected score: 2.72-1.28 (sets: 6.60-4.85)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 89.69%
      Most likely place: 2nd (39.19%)

PartinG
      Expected score: 2.39-1.61 (sets: 6.11-3.75)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 73.28%
      Most likely place: 1st (42.51%)

HerO
      Expected score: 1.47-2.53 (sets: 5.21-5.29)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 37.03%
      Most likely place: 4th (62.97%)

Mvp
      Expected score: 0.28-3.72 (sets: 1.85-7.60)
      Probability of achieving top 3: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 5th (100.00%)

Detailed placement probabilities

                     5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
           Mvp:  100.00%                                    
          HerO:            62.97%   28.03%    9.00%         
       Leenock:            10.31%   21.35%   39.19%   29.15%
     DongRaeGu:                     28.73%   42.93%   28.34%
       PartinG:            26.72%   21.89%    8.88%   42.51%

Match score

                     0-4      1-3      2-2      3-1      4-0
           Mvp:   72.40%   27.60%                           
          HerO:            52.59%   47.41%                  
       Leenock:                     27.60%   72.40%         
     DongRaeGu:                              86.77%   13.23%
       PartinG:             6.23%   48.19%   45.59%         

Set score

                      -8       -7       -6       -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5        6        7        8
           Mvp:            42.64%   29.76%            15.59%   12.01%                                                                                                   
          HerO:                                                         26.48%   26.10%            24.10%   23.32%                                                      
       Leenock:                                                                  12.01%   15.59%            29.76%   42.64%                                             
     DongRaeGu:                                                                                    59.59%   27.19%             8.00%    5.22%                           
       PartinG:                                                 1.18%    3.19%    1.86%    7.60%   23.93%   16.66%    7.10%   22.96%   15.53%

details, data source, code

opterown

Australia54784 Posts

December 17 2012 10:42 GMT

#2092

On December 17 2012 19:41 opterown wrote:

Poll: Recommend Leenock vs. DongRaeGu Game 3?

~ (5)

45%

✓ (4)

36%

✗ (2)

18%

11 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Leenock vs. DongRaeGu Game 3?

(Vote): ✓
(Vote): ✗
(Vote): ~

.kv

United States2332 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2093

Khaldor's voice seems to start dying out....someone give him honey and water

Noc-

Finland850 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2094

Parting dont disappoint me or im going to cry. <3

Slaughter this guy.

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2095

HerO vs. PartinG

HerO wins (47.36%):
      2-0: 23.27%
      2-1: 24.09%

PartinG wins (52.64%):
      2-0: 26.79%
      2-1: 25.85%

Most likely winner: PartinG (52.64%)
Median outcome: HerO 1-2 PartinG

details, data source, code

Schelim

Austria11528 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2096

god damn it MVP =/

Kiyo.

United States2284 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2097

Phew, Parting has a good shot at first place now.

crawlingchaos

Canada2025 Posts

December 17 2012 10:43 GMT

#2098

Khaldor conducting business like a boss

Shellshock

United States97277 Posts

December 17 2012 10:44 GMT

#2099

we have to go through all the games still to determine 1st through 3rd

Fubi

2228 Posts

December 17 2012 10:45 GMT

#2100

On December 17 2012 19:28 WhiteSatin wrote:

Show nested quote +

On December 17 2012 19:24 Fubi wrote:

On December 17 2012 19:19 WhiteSatin wrote:

On December 17 2012 19:14 Fubi wrote:

On December 17 2012 19:09 WhiteSatin wrote:

On December 17 2012 19:03 Fubi wrote:

On December 17 2012 18:47 WhiteSatin wrote:

On December 17 2012 18:42 Weavel wrote:
Sloppy but entertaining game.

I am always amused when people say it.

"Sloppy play" rotfl what are you talking about ?
You probably have no idea the amount of speed, micro/macro required to play at that level.
That was overall a great game.

When you see those "sloppy-looking" games by Gumiho, for instance, that's because his multi tasking is insane.

Comments like yours are purely based on ignorance and I bet you are not a high master's (or even just regular master) player. I wish b.net profiles were linked to TL accounts so people would think twice about posting their low-level knowledge comments about the game.
"A gold player thinks some of the best players in the world are playing sloppily" hmmm, not quite.

Why do people always use arguments like these? We have the right to criticize them because they are putting themselves up on the spot by being professional players. If a professional singer goes off pitch or a professional dancer trips during a live performance, we as the audience have the right to criticize them even though 99% of us will be 100 times worst at singing/dancing.

Fact of the matter is, Hero's control WAS sloppy; look at how many stalkers he lost in that first aggression. MVP's micro was definitely better than Hero's both games, he just didn't have the best decisions/unit comp.

I don't think you quite got the meaning of what I said.
What you are mentioning is very different from what I complained about.

Obviously if a professional singer goes off pitch you can say they messed up much more easily than judging a very complex game like SC2.

As I said in my comments "most of the times" (which is not always, but a lot of them) the "sloppy play" comments are plain wrong. For instance, in the first game beteween MVP and HerO there was nothing that could have made the game possibly be labeled as "sloppy", yet there was a comment about it right away.

When you go around the LR threads, if you know the game at least a masters level, you will notice that these overly-popular sloppy comments are plain wrong 90% of the times - so my complain was not referred to the fact that people can't criticize pro players plays or decisions but rather that a lot of them lack the tools and the understanding to realize when to do so.

I'm not saying they're correct calling them sloppy, I'm just saying your argument for saying so is wrong as well; just cuz we're not as good as a professional at doing what they do, it doesn't mean we as audience don't have the rights to criticize. Now, the argument that Hero missed a few micros cuz he was multitasking like crazy in game 1, yea that I agree.

Yes I understand what you are saying but it seems like you are still missing the point.
I never said that you, the audience, don't have the rights to criticize... From the previous post:

" so my complain was not referred to the fact that people can't criticize pro players plays or decisions but rather that a lot of them lack the tools and the understanding to realize when to do so "

If you still do not realize my point I am not sure what to tell you.

Most audience don't need the knowledge/tools, they criticize via relativity. We can call a singer bad because we've heard much better, we call a NBA player bad for missing free throws because relatively speaking, most usually get it in. In the same case here, we call SC2 plays sloppy because we've seen players pull off a much crispier micro in some of the same situations.

So you are basically confirming that a lot of times people make silly and useless comments just as I said in my initial post.
For something like SC2, it is especially true due the complex nature of the game.
Thanks for our interaction.

Criticism by relativity can be valid; I know jack shit about singing and glass will shatter when I do, but even then, when I hear William Hung sing, I know he's terrible at it even tho he is probably still 10 times better than me. Why? Because he is way worst relative to every other American Idol contestants, therefore he isn't up to the standards, and that would still be a valid criticism by me, someone who has no tools/knowledge for singing. Same can be said in SC2 when we call a players doing a sloppy move.