[IPL5] Day 1 - Page 7

From page 85 and onwards anyone contributing to a gender discussion will face moderation.

I feel the need to remind people that balance commentary and complaints are not acceptable posts in LR topics due to the fact that they will derail any tournament topic that it is left unchecked in. If you participate in it you will be moderated.

It should also be clear that any SC2 vs LoL debates have no place in this thread.

iKill[ShocK]

Vietnam3530 Posts

November 27 2012 06:02 GMT

#121

On November 27 2012 14:44 JJH777 wrote:
How far the players who won the qualifiers got seeded is kind of ridiculous. I'll be shocked if one of those 8 doesn't win the tournament. I don't even understand why they did that they really should have just had everyone start at the beginning of the bracket. Isn't a paid flight enough of a reward? I would personally be way more hyped if those 8 didn't have such a gigantic advantage over everyone else.

well to be fair, Taeja and Polt's International qualifiers was extremely stacked.

(Mc, Squirtle, Taeja, HerO, StC, Symbol, Life, Polt, Revival, HyuN, Mana, Nerchio all participated in that qualifier)

Even though i agree that CranK/Xigua got seeded very high for winning an amateur qualifier & Chinese Regionals (weird)

ELA

Denmark4608 Posts

November 27 2012 07:14 GMT

#122

On November 27 2012 15:02 iKill[ShocK] wrote:

Show nested quote +

Even if Xigua only has maybe 30% chance of beating whoever reaches him, whoever that does needs to go through 3 additional rounds, severely lowering their overall chances from the beginning

As R1, 2 and 3 are played, you will see some players chances increase quite alot, and Xiguas will drop alot

Edit: I quoted the wrong person, sorry, I was refering to the posters disagreeing with the probability stats made by BB

Yello

Germany7411 Posts

November 27 2012 07:31 GMT

#123

wow this IPL is stacked. I don't want to miss any games. Sadly they can't stream every single game.

Zealously

East Gorteau22261 Posts

November 27 2012 07:40 GMT

#124

Life will win this np.

Edit: Actually, let me develop that:

Life 2:0 Perfect

Life 2:0 HwangSin

Life 2-1 (I'm assuming it'll remain Bo3) Leenock

Then it will either be Life 2-0 Bomber (if he goes on a roll)
or Life 2-1 Sniper (if Bomber doesn't go crazy, Sniper should roll him, and then prove a tougher opponent for Life than Bomber would)

Proceed to roll everyone else while dropping perhaps three maps unless ZvZ sunday.

dynwar7

1983 Posts

November 27 2012 08:09 GMT

#125

Where is MKP? I thought he was participating here?

Awesomeness

Germany1361 Posts

November 27 2012 08:16 GMT

#126

On November 27 2012 17:09 dynwar7 wrote:
Where is MKP? I thought he was participating here?

WCG

VirgilSC2

United States6151 Posts

November 27 2012 08:23 GMT

#127

I'm personally hoping for a great showing from HwangSin. He did really well at MLG Dallas, and he's such a nice guy!

Wintex

Norway16849 Posts

November 27 2012 08:37 GMT

#128

Bomber. <3

RaelSan

Belgium223 Posts

November 27 2012 09:35 GMT

#129

I really dont like the fact some players get to directly be in Winner Round 4 because they won a " regional qualifier " :x

TheBB

Switzerland5133 Posts

November 27 2012 09:51 GMT

#130

Updated simulations, since we have an updated bracket, and I was able to figure out how the losers' bracket spread works by playing with the fantasy one. (I think it's a poor system, but whatever.)

Since we have a bit of a lack of information, I made the following assumptions:

Hendralisk and Ret replaced by no-one (they become byes).
Best of 3 throughout (including the two finals).

The validity of this simulation is pending verification of the above.

By the way, a missing number (instead of 0.00%) means either impossible, or so improbable that it's indistinguishable from zero with double-precision floats.

Worth noting is also that Sea has a grand total of three games in the database, so we have essentially no information about him.

Most likely winners:
      TaeJa: 12.15%
      Leenock: 11.22%
      Life: 9.45%
      Creator: 6.94%
      DongRaeGu: 6.21%
      Polt: 5.52%
      Sniper: 3.44%
      Stephano: 3.39%
      San: 3.06%
      viOLet: 2.87%
      Seed: 2.64%
      Bomber: 2.62%
      HerO: 2.55%
      HyuN: 2.53%
      Symbol: 2.23%
      Scarlett: 1.91%

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Life expectancies] +

      TaeJa: 7.34 rounds (top 8)
      Polt: 6.60 rounds (top 8)
      San: 6.26 rounds (top 12)
      Leenock: 6.21 rounds (top 12)
      Life: 6.19 rounds (top 12)
      Sleep: 6.19 rounds (top 12)
      aLive: 5.86 rounds (top 12)
      Snute: 5.70 rounds (top 12)
      Creator: 5.60 rounds (top 12)
      DongRaeGu: 5.59 rounds (top 12)
      Crank: 5.40 rounds (top 16)
      xigua: 4.99 rounds (top 16)
      Sniper: 4.88 rounds (top 16)
      HyuN: 4.63 rounds (top 16)
      viOLet: 4.42 rounds (top 24)
      Scarlett: 4.38 rounds (top 24)
      Seed: 4.37 rounds (top 24)
      Stephano: 4.31 rounds (top 24)
      Bomber: 4.19 rounds (top 24)
      Squirtle: 4.17 rounds (top 24)
      Bogus: 4.07 rounds (top 24)
      Ryung: 4.04 rounds (top 24)
      Nerchio: 3.98 rounds (top 24)
      LucifroN: 3.83 rounds (top 24)
      HerO: 3.76 rounds (top 24)
      MC: 3.76 rounds (top 24)
      Symbol: 3.73 rounds (top 24)
      Sen: 3.46 rounds (top 32)
      Vortix: 3.31 rounds (top 32)
      YoDa: 3.30 rounds (top 32)
      TheStC: 3.29 rounds (top 32)
      MMA: 3.25 rounds (top 32)
      Genius: 3.24 rounds (top 32)
      Byun: 3.11 rounds (top 32)
      Heart: 3.09 rounds (top 32)
      BBoongBBoong: 3.03 rounds (top 32)
      Naniwa: 2.85 rounds (top 32)
      GanZi: 2.77 rounds (top 32)
      Bly: 2.67 rounds (top 32)
      Shine: 2.22 rounds (top 40)
      luvsic: 2.22 rounds (top 40)
      HwangSin: 2.15 rounds (top 40)
      Golden: 2.12 rounds (top 40)
      sLivko: 2.10 rounds (top 40)
      Sting: 1.84 rounds (top 40)
      HuK: 1.82 rounds (top 40)
      ByuL: 1.72 rounds (top 40)
      ToD: 1.62 rounds (top 40)
      MajOr: 1.36 rounds (top 56)
      CatZ: 1.35 rounds (top 56)
      Illusion: 1.32 rounds (top 56)
      ViBE: 1.20 rounds (top 56)
      goswser: 1.14 rounds (top 56)
      Sea: 1.00 rounds (top 56)
      sculp: 0.98 rounds (top 56)
      drewbie: 0.88 rounds (top 56)
      TriMaster: 0.87 rounds (top 56)
      Apocalypse: 0.84 rounds (top 56)
      puCK: 0.66 rounds (top 56)
      Eifersuchtig: 0.40 rounds (top 72)
      Shuttle: 0.40 rounds (top 72)
      Glon: 0.38 rounds (top 72)
      daisuki: 0.36 rounds (top 72)
      theognis: 0.32 rounds (top 72)
      Sasquatch: 0.28 rounds (top 72)
      Perfect: 0.22 rounds (top 72)
      TubbyTheFat: 0.16 rounds (top 72)
      Caliber: 0.15 rounds (top 72)
      MaSsan: 0.14 rounds (top 72)

+ Show Spoiler [Exact placement distribution] +

                  Top 72   Top 56   Top 40   Top 32   Top 24   Top 16   Top 12    Top 8    Top 6    Top 4    Top 3    Top 2      Win
          HyuN:             0.09%   15.65%   23.16%   23.67%   10.32%    9.54%    4.45%    4.34%    2.11%    1.97%    2.17%    2.53%
  BBoongBBoong:             0.39%   45.10%   28.02%   15.89%    4.86%    3.15%    1.05%    0.79%    0.28%    0.22%    0.16%    0.09%
           Sea:            99.52%    0.47%    0.00%                                                                                 
       Nerchio:    0.28%    3.25%   24.00%   24.87%   18.44%    9.48%    7.66%    3.70%    3.00%    1.62%    1.27%    1.25%    1.17%
          puCK:   37.80%   58.75%    2.86%    0.52%    0.06%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
       Creator:    0.10%    1.16%   10.77%   17.03%   17.95%   11.04%   11.05%    6.29%    6.20%    3.61%    3.46%    4.41%    6.94%
       Shuttle:   61.82%   36.84%    1.15%    0.17%    0.01%    0.00%                                                               
     DongRaeGu:    0.54%    4.65%    7.82%   14.04%   15.82%   13.30%   12.54%    6.70%    6.92%    3.60%    3.49%    4.35%    6.21%
   TubbyTheFat:   85.44%   13.58%    0.69%    0.25%    0.03%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
          Byun:    1.91%   19.76%   24.09%   20.67%   13.35%    8.54%    5.40%    2.30%    1.75%    0.79%    0.60%    0.49%    0.35%
      Illusion:   12.10%   62.01%   14.32%    7.45%    2.72%    0.89%    0.37%    0.08%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
      Squirtle:             8.59%   16.46%   21.37%   18.88%   11.73%    8.96%    4.04%    3.69%    1.72%    1.48%    1.52%    1.56%
          CatZ:            76.52%   14.99%    6.20%    1.74%    0.38%    0.13%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%         
          YoDa:            14.88%   21.62%   25.52%   18.37%    8.64%    5.69%    1.91%    1.62%    0.57%    0.51%    0.39%    0.28%
        Sniper:    2.14%    7.01%   12.99%   18.56%   13.03%    9.47%    9.97%    7.28%    6.89%    3.03%    2.98%    3.21%    3.44%
          Glon:   69.34%   25.67%    3.17%    1.49%    0.27%    0.04%    0.02%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%                  
        TheStC:    4.44%   16.65%   23.62%   20.65%   11.55%    6.95%    5.94%    3.61%    2.98%    1.13%    1.02%    0.84%    0.63%
          ViBE:   24.09%   50.68%   13.67%    7.35%    2.51%    0.80%    0.56%    0.17%    0.13%    0.02%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%
        Vortix:    3.34%   24.49%   15.15%   20.41%   12.05%    6.96%    6.74%    3.82%    3.29%    1.12%    1.11%    0.91%    0.62%
       Caliber:   87.10%   11.78%    0.70%    0.37%    0.04%    0.00%    0.01%                                                      
        Bomber:    2.06%   18.25%   14.02%   17.28%   11.17%    8.27%    7.96%    5.85%    5.29%    2.50%    2.27%    2.48%    2.62%
        sLivko:    7.51%   45.48%   16.69%   14.00%    6.72%    3.50%    2.72%    1.32%    1.06%    0.35%    0.31%    0.23%    0.13%
          Life:    0.95%    4.33%    6.67%   14.20%   11.17%    9.61%   10.19%    8.81%    8.79%    4.77%    4.95%    6.10%    9.45%
       Perfect:   81.43%   15.95%    1.76%    0.73%    0.11%    0.01%    0.01%             0.00%                                    
      HwangSin:    7.48%   36.05%   24.91%   15.80%    7.40%    3.55%    2.33%    1.03%    0.79%    0.27%    0.20%    0.12%    0.06%
           HuK:   10.14%   43.67%   22.26%   12.95%    5.63%    2.50%    1.50%    0.60%    0.43%    0.12%    0.11%    0.07%    0.02%
       Leenock:    2.82%    5.52%    6.67%   12.82%    9.97%    8.96%    9.11%    8.35%    8.19%    4.88%    5.04%    6.46%   11.22%
    Apocalypse:   49.77%   32.76%    7.81%    5.79%    2.19%    0.84%    0.50%    0.14%    0.13%    0.03%    0.03%    0.01%    0.01%
         GanZi:   11.57%   22.77%   18.68%   18.36%   10.46%    6.27%    4.55%    2.68%    2.13%    0.85%    0.69%    0.58%    0.40%
       goswser:   35.85%   38.95%   11.24%    8.12%    3.20%    1.27%    0.75%    0.28%    0.22%    0.05%    0.04%    0.02%    0.01%
         Ryung:    5.85%   15.57%   10.95%   19.58%   13.04%    8.63%    7.89%    4.85%    4.42%    2.61%    2.53%    2.44%    1.65%
  Eifersuchtig:   70.83%   22.80%    3.07%    2.36%    0.70%    0.12%    0.09%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%         
        Golden:   15.38%   37.52%   13.59%   15.07%    7.31%    4.06%    3.02%    1.45%    1.16%    0.51%    0.47%    0.34%    0.14%
        Genius:    7.94%   24.10%   13.97%   18.88%   10.51%    7.03%    5.82%    3.43%    2.90%    1.63%    1.53%    1.40%    0.85%
      Scarlett:    3.81%    8.04%   14.19%   21.07%   14.65%    9.32%    8.50%    5.25%    4.81%    2.90%    2.82%    2.73%    1.91%
       drewbie:   44.18%   36.77%   10.16%    6.06%    1.95%    0.45%    0.29%    0.07%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
        Naniwa:    8.42%   17.32%   23.78%   22.43%   11.74%    5.94%    4.58%    2.02%    1.68%    0.74%    0.70%    0.46%    0.20%
     TriMaster:   43.60%   37.87%   10.29%    5.78%    1.74%    0.39%    0.21%    0.06%    0.04%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%         
            MC:    6.10%   17.71%   14.39%   18.61%   12.43%    7.82%    6.85%    4.21%    3.84%    2.31%    2.20%    2.08%    1.44%
       daisuki:   72.86%   21.58%    3.03%    1.90%    0.49%    0.08%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%                  
           MMA:    7.51%   24.23%   16.85%   16.48%   10.34%    6.73%    5.55%    3.41%    2.86%    1.75%    1.66%    1.55%    1.09%
         Shine:   13.54%   36.48%   16.69%   13.72%    7.37%    4.17%    3.11%    1.61%    1.34%    0.67%    0.60%    0.48%    0.23%
           Sen:   12.16%   18.40%   14.27%   16.28%   10.52%    7.27%    5.95%    3.94%    3.45%    2.15%    2.05%    2.05%    1.50%
         sculp:   47.71%   31.11%    8.70%    6.73%    2.97%    1.13%    0.85%    0.30%    0.27%    0.08%    0.08%    0.04%    0.01%
        Symbol:   10.93%   17.72%   13.54%   15.37%   10.39%    7.54%    6.35%    4.43%    3.83%    2.57%    2.50%    2.60%    2.23%
          ByuL:   29.19%   32.77%   12.55%   10.81%    5.91%    3.05%    2.29%    1.13%    0.96%    0.47%    0.42%    0.30%    0.14%
         Bogus:    2.15%   15.35%   12.79%   20.75%   15.00%    9.08%    8.25%    4.07%    4.00%    2.36%    2.40%    2.28%    1.54%
        MaSsan:   87.47%   11.40%    0.70%    0.39%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
           Bly:    4.33%   32.42%   20.06%   17.91%   10.55%    5.22%    3.94%    1.58%    1.54%    0.76%    0.76%    0.61%    0.32%
        luvsic:    6.05%   40.82%   19.46%   15.66%    8.44%    3.77%    2.65%    1.00%    0.94%    0.39%    0.42%    0.27%    0.13%
      LucifroN:            18.57%   15.50%   21.29%   14.76%    8.60%    7.45%    3.51%    3.53%    1.93%    1.97%    1.79%    1.11%
        viOLet:            14.40%   15.07%   18.76%   13.75%    9.47%    7.84%    4.34%    4.34%    2.92%    2.97%    3.27%    2.87%
           ToD:            67.03%   16.43%    9.74%    4.02%    1.32%    0.84%    0.24%    0.21%    0.07%    0.07%    0.04%    0.01%
          Seed:    2.09%    8.94%   14.73%   22.67%   17.14%    7.53%    7.44%    4.07%    4.02%    2.86%    2.78%    3.09%    2.64%
     Sasquatch:   76.75%   20.14%    2.01%    0.94%    0.14%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%                           
         Heart:    3.73%   18.93%   24.61%   22.06%   13.43%    5.16%    4.27%    2.05%    1.87%    1.10%    1.10%    1.03%    0.66%
         MajOr:   17.44%   51.98%   16.43%    9.11%    3.35%    0.76%    0.51%    0.15%    0.15%    0.04%    0.05%    0.03%    0.01%
      Stephano:    4.30%   14.88%   11.85%   18.95%   14.73%    7.13%    6.92%    4.13%    4.08%    3.02%    3.00%    3.63%    3.39%
      theognis:   74.82%   20.81%    2.37%    1.55%    0.35%    0.05%    0.03%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%                  
          HerO:    5.09%   20.44%   14.32%   18.31%   13.50%    6.34%    5.80%    3.25%    3.17%    2.24%    2.33%    2.67%    2.55%
         Sting:   15.79%   43.87%   13.67%   12.64%    6.94%    2.48%    1.91%    0.82%    0.71%    0.39%    0.36%    0.31%    0.12%
         TaeJa:                                       19.98%   11.10%   17.18%    8.71%   11.11%    5.62%    6.37%    7.79%   12.15%
          Polt:                                       23.59%   15.12%   21.67%    9.02%   10.72%    4.35%    4.81%    5.21%    5.52%
         Crank:                                       44.42%   14.68%   20.85%    7.31%    7.37%    1.84%    1.84%    1.15%    0.55%
         xigua:                                       56.78%   14.89%   15.65%    4.37%    5.19%    1.13%    1.17%    0.59%    0.22%
         Sleep:                                       31.44%   13.58%   20.02%    8.79%   10.47%    4.93%    5.09%    3.85%    1.85%
         aLive:                                       37.81%   14.12%   19.23%    7.55%    9.12%    3.94%    4.12%    2.89%    1.22%
         Snute:                                       38.97%   15.39%   20.97%    6.89%    7.84%    3.23%    3.45%    2.32%    0.95%
           San:                                       34.41%   12.27%   17.83%    7.52%    9.29%    5.04%    5.61%    4.97%    3.06%

+ Show Spoiler [Most likely to be eliminated by...] +

          HyuN:     Creator (15.40%)     Nerchio (13.00%)       TaeJa ( 9.29%)
  BBoongBBoong:     Nerchio (28.49%)     Creator (22.54%)        Seed ( 7.80%)
           Sea:  BBoongBBoo (67.80%)        HyuN (31.72%)     Nerchio ( 0.28%)
       Nerchio:  BBoongBBoo (15.14%)        HyuN (14.58%)        Seed ( 8.70%)
          puCK:     Nerchio (37.93%)     Shuttle (36.03%)     Creator (22.59%)
       Creator:        HyuN (10.91%)       TaeJa ( 7.62%)  BBoongBBoo ( 7.35%)
       Shuttle:        puCK (56.49%)     Nerchio (26.90%)     Creator (15.28%)
     DongRaeGu:    Squirtle ( 9.02%)       TaeJa ( 7.35%)        Polt ( 7.29%)
   TubbyTheFat:    Illusion (61.68%)        Byun (31.79%)   DongRaeGu ( 5.55%)
          Byun:    Illusion (16.79%)    Squirtle (14.47%)        YoDa (11.46%)
      Illusion:        Byun (44.46%)   DongRaeGu (18.89%)  TubbyTheFa (10.76%)
      Squirtle:   DongRaeGu (12.96%)        Byun (10.58%)      viOLet ( 7.79%)
          CatZ:        YoDa (39.45%)    Squirtle (37.07%)        Byun ( 8.28%)
          YoDa:   DongRaeGu (13.48%)        Byun (13.46%)        CatZ (12.43%)
        Sniper:      Bomber ( 9.35%)      Vortix ( 6.06%)      Symbol ( 5.63%)
          Glon:        ViBE (50.19%)      TheStC (32.29%)      Sniper (12.52%)
        TheStC:      Bomber (12.46%)        ViBE (12.28%)      Vortix ( 8.56%)
          ViBE:      TheStC (33.78%)      Sniper (20.81%)        Glon (20.17%)
        Vortix:      sLivko (17.70%)      Bomber ( 9.75%)      Sniper ( 9.49%)
       Caliber:      sLivko (59.48%)      Bomber (33.10%)      Vortix ( 6.29%)
        Bomber:      sLivko (12.94%)      Sniper ( 9.03%)      TheStC ( 8.17%)
        sLivko:      Bomber (25.71%)      Vortix (21.99%)      TheStC ( 8.82%)
          Life:     Leenock (10.55%)    Scarlett ( 4.94%)       Ryung ( 4.78%)
       Perfect:         HuK (48.08%)    HwangSin (43.53%)        Life ( 5.77%)
      HwangSin:         HuK (29.00%)       GanZi (11.04%)     Leenock (10.29%)
           HuK:    HwangSin (34.46%)        Life (10.16%)       GanZi ( 9.99%)
       Leenock:        Life ( 9.22%)    Scarlett ( 4.97%)       Ryung ( 4.63%)
    Apocalypse:     goswser (34.75%)       GanZi (33.60%)     Leenock (14.18%)
         GanZi:  Apocalypse (14.46%)     goswser (12.67%)        Life ( 8.66%)
       goswser:  Apocalypse (31.57%)       GanZi (26.49%)     Leenock (16.75%)
         Ryung:      Golden (10.98%)     Leenock ( 9.33%)    Scarlett ( 8.76%)
  Eifersuchtig:      Golden (45.47%)      Genius (36.52%)       Ryung (11.64%)
        Golden:      Genius (23.99%)       Ryung (17.29%)  Eifersucht (11.63%)
        Genius:      Golden (16.67%)       Ryung ( 9.19%)    Scarlett ( 8.66%)
      Scarlett:     Leenock ( 9.73%)       Ryung ( 8.58%)        Life ( 8.44%)
       drewbie:   TriMaster (32.07%)      Naniwa (30.43%)    Scarlett (18.45%)
        Naniwa:     drewbie (11.40%)      Genius (10.85%)       Ryung (10.36%)
     TriMaster:     drewbie (35.85%)      Naniwa (24.28%)    Scarlett (21.35%)
            MC:       Shine (12.39%)         MMA ( 9.74%)      Symbol ( 8.05%)
       daisuki:       Shine (46.15%)         MMA (37.24%)          MC (11.04%)
           MMA:       Shine (16.51%)          MC ( 9.63%)      Symbol ( 8.22%)
         Shine:         MMA (23.12%)          MC (16.86%)     daisuki (10.05%)
           Sen:        ByuL (13.58%)      Symbol (10.53%)         MMA ( 7.14%)
         sculp:        ByuL (34.54%)      Symbol (27.56%)         Sen (16.72%)
        Symbol:        ByuL (10.15%)       sculp ( 9.31%)         Sen ( 9.24%)
          ByuL:         Sen (21.64%)       sculp (21.53%)      Symbol (18.81%)
         Bogus:      viOLet ( 9.76%)      luvsic ( 9.26%)         Bly ( 7.94%)
        MaSsan:      luvsic (50.02%)         Bly (43.25%)       Bogus ( 5.61%)
           Bly:      luvsic (23.26%)      viOLet (11.33%)       Bogus (10.31%)
        luvsic:         Bly (27.88%)       Bogus (14.51%)      viOLet (10.69%)
      LucifroN:         ToD (14.10%)   DongRaeGu ( 8.44%)       Bogus ( 8.25%)
        viOLet:         ToD (11.32%)   DongRaeGu ( 8.73%)       Bogus ( 7.49%)
           ToD:      viOLet (36.22%)    LucifroN (30.81%)         Bly ( 6.51%)
          Seed:     Creator (10.21%)        HerO ( 9.30%)    Stephano ( 9.11%)
     Sasquatch:       MajOr (54.15%)       Heart (32.71%)        Seed (10.02%)
         Heart:       MajOr (14.53%)        HerO (12.27%)    Stephano (10.88%)
         MajOr:       Heart (34.31%)        Seed (20.83%)   Sasquatch (14.28%)
      Stephano:       Sting (10.82%)     Creator ( 9.34%)        Seed ( 7.99%)
      theognis:       Sting (50.63%)        HerO (33.97%)    Stephano (11.03%)
          HerO:       Sting (14.56%)     Creator ( 8.81%)        Seed ( 8.13%)
         Sting:        HerO (27.37%)    Stephano (20.27%)    theognis (12.03%)
         TaeJa:     Creator ( 8.86%)        Polt ( 8.40%)        HyuN ( 7.73%)
          Polt:       TaeJa (11.63%)   DongRaeGu (10.42%)     Creator ( 8.29%)
         Crank:      Sniper (10.68%)        Life ( 8.39%)      Bomber ( 8.00%)
         xigua:        Life (18.80%)     Leenock (16.06%)      Genius ( 5.88%)
         Sleep:     Leenock ( 9.25%)    Scarlett ( 7.81%)       Ryung ( 6.40%)
         aLive:      Bomber ( 6.90%)          MC ( 6.83%)       Sleep ( 6.67%)
         Snute:       Bogus ( 8.12%)   DongRaeGu ( 7.10%)         San ( 7.05%)
           San:     Creator ( 9.29%)        Seed ( 8.06%)     Nerchio ( 7.54%)

+ Show Spoiler [Most likely to be sent to the losers b…] +

          HyuN:  BBoongBBoo (31.81%)     Creator (25.10%)       TaeJa (17.09%)
  BBoongBBoong:        HyuN (67.62%)     Creator (15.04%)     Nerchio ( 7.60%)
           Sea:  BBoongBBoo (99.43%)        HyuN ( 0.57%)     Nerchio ( 0.00%)
       Nerchio:     Creator (57.10%)        HyuN (13.50%)       TaeJa (11.17%)
          puCK:     Nerchio (94.18%)     Creator ( 5.50%)        HyuN ( 0.18%)
       Creator:     Nerchio (35.19%)       TaeJa (18.50%)        HyuN (17.56%)
       Shuttle:     Creator (97.97%)     Nerchio ( 1.85%)        HyuN ( 0.08%)
     DongRaeGu:        Byun (23.98%)        Polt (18.29%)    Squirtle (14.76%)
   TubbyTheFat:   DongRaeGu (97.40%)        Byun ( 1.78%)    Illusion ( 0.59%)
          Byun:   DongRaeGu (46.97%)    Illusion (27.17%)    Squirtle ( 7.70%)
      Illusion:        Byun (72.83%)   DongRaeGu (22.38%)    Squirtle ( 1.94%)
      Squirtle:        YoDa (32.01%)   DongRaeGu (21.21%)        CatZ (16.11%)
          CatZ:    Squirtle (83.89%)        YoDa (12.17%)   DongRaeGu ( 2.42%)
          YoDa:    Squirtle (51.89%)   DongRaeGu (21.55%)        Polt ( 9.61%)
        Sniper:      TheStC (27.09%)      Bomber (12.87%)      Vortix ( 9.57%)
          Glon:      Sniper (91.55%)      TheStC ( 5.43%)        ViBE ( 1.65%)
        TheStC:      Sniper (39.74%)        ViBE (27.03%)      Bomber ( 8.45%)
          ViBE:      TheStC (72.97%)      Sniper (19.79%)      Bomber ( 2.27%)
        Vortix:      Bomber (38.38%)      Sniper (14.89%)      sLivko (13.92%)
       Caliber:      Vortix (93.41%)      Bomber ( 4.18%)      sLivko ( 2.06%)
        Bomber:      sLivko (33.41%)      Vortix (23.87%)      Sniper (12.43%)
        sLivko:      Bomber (66.59%)      Vortix (17.24%)      Sniper ( 6.33%)
          Life:     Leenock (26.02%)    HwangSin (12.30%)         HuK ( 9.04%)
       Perfect:        Life (95.79%)    HwangSin ( 1.93%)         HuK ( 1.66%)
      HwangSin:         HuK (45.63%)        Life (39.82%)     Leenock ( 7.29%)
           HuK:    HwangSin (54.37%)        Life (34.63%)     Leenock ( 5.65%)
       Leenock:        Life (22.62%)       GanZi (16.45%)  Apocalypse (14.25%)
    Apocalypse:     Leenock (85.75%)       GanZi ( 6.78%)        Life ( 3.21%)
         GanZi:     Leenock (41.77%)     goswser (32.11%)        Life (11.84%)
       goswser:       GanZi (67.89%)     Leenock (23.21%)        Life ( 4.06%)
         Ryung:      Genius (24.54%)    Scarlett (13.71%)  Eifersucht (13.61%)
  Eifersuchtig:       Ryung (86.39%)      Genius ( 6.91%)      Golden ( 4.40%)
        Golden:      Genius (59.39%)       Ryung (21.51%)    Scarlett ( 6.15%)
        Genius:      Golden (40.61%)       Ryung (26.74%)    Scarlett ( 9.23%)
      Scarlett:      Naniwa (22.92%)     drewbie (17.70%)       Ryung (13.44%)
       drewbie:    Scarlett (82.30%)      Naniwa ( 9.60%)       Ryung ( 2.36%)
        Naniwa:    Scarlett (38.75%)   TriMaster (25.10%)       Ryung ( 9.70%)
     TriMaster:      Naniwa (74.90%)    Scarlett (17.29%)     drewbie ( 2.33%)
            MC:         MMA (25.47%)       Shine (15.26%)     daisuki (13.34%)
       daisuki:          MC (86.66%)         MMA ( 6.83%)       Shine ( 4.52%)
           MMA:       Shine (41.63%)          MC (25.02%)      Symbol ( 6.74%)
         Shine:         MMA (58.37%)          MC (20.92%)      Symbol ( 4.78%)
           Sen:       sculp (27.84%)      Symbol (25.00%)        ByuL ( 9.60%)
         sculp:         Sen (72.16%)      Symbol (13.54%)        ByuL ( 6.00%)
        Symbol:        ByuL (34.97%)         Sen (21.94%)          MC ( 7.93%)
          ByuL:      Symbol (65.03%)         Sen (15.63%)          MC ( 4.26%)
         Bogus:         Bly (22.61%)      luvsic (16.90%)      viOLet (14.08%)
        MaSsan:       Bogus (94.72%)         Bly ( 2.71%)      luvsic ( 2.19%)
           Bly:      luvsic (45.46%)       Bogus (29.02%)      viOLet ( 7.15%)
        luvsic:         Bly (54.53%)       Bogus (26.18%)      viOLet ( 5.84%)
      LucifroN:      viOLet (44.92%)       Bogus (13.73%)       Snute ( 9.63%)
        viOLet:    LucifroN (31.17%)         ToD (23.91%)       Bogus (10.69%)
           ToD:      viOLet (76.09%)    LucifroN (16.37%)       Bogus ( 2.98%)
          Seed:       Heart (28.02%)    Stephano (15.39%)         San (11.70%)
     Sasquatch:        Seed (92.93%)       Heart ( 4.51%)       MajOr ( 1.65%)
         Heart:        Seed (37.40%)       MajOr (29.61%)    Stephano ( 9.64%)
         MajOr:       Heart (70.39%)        Seed (20.91%)    Stephano ( 3.14%)
      Stephano:        HerO (29.41%)        Seed (13.20%)       Sting (10.89%)
      theognis:    Stephano (89.29%)        HerO ( 6.25%)       Sting ( 3.03%)
          HerO:       Sting (34.62%)    Stephano (28.99%)        Seed ( 9.71%)
         Sting:        HerO (65.38%)    Stephano (20.01%)        Seed ( 5.06%)
         TaeJa:     Creator (21.87%)        HyuN (14.29%)        Polt (10.94%)
          Polt:   DongRaeGu (26.97%)       TaeJa (15.17%)    Squirtle (12.41%)
         Crank:      Sniper (24.32%)      Bomber (17.51%)      Vortix (11.45%)
         xigua:        Life (34.08%)     Leenock (33.00%)       GanZi ( 6.09%)
         Sleep:    Scarlett (18.13%)       Ryung (16.49%)      Genius (10.10%)
         aLive:      Symbol (14.79%)          MC (14.36%)         Sen (12.92%)
         Snute:      viOLet (18.92%)       Bogus (17.30%)    LucifroN (14.90%)
           San:    Stephano (17.92%)        Seed (17.03%)        HerO (12.98%)

SwizzY

United States1549 Posts

November 27 2012 10:04 GMT

#131

Wow so many favorites could just get shut down first round and lose out in LB so easily... The tension must be CRAAAZY

Daswollvieh

5553 Posts

November 27 2012 10:07 GMT

#132

On November 27 2012 18:51 TheBB wrote:
Updated simulations, since we have an updated bracket, and I was able to figure out how the losers' bracket spread works by playing with the fantasy one. (I think it's a poor system, but whatever.)

Since we have a bit of a lack of information, I made the following assumptions:

Hendralisk and Ret replaced by no-one (they become byes).
Best of 3 throughout (including the two finals).

+ Show Spoiler [Exact placement distribution] +

                  Top 72   Top 56   Top 40   Top 32   Top 24   Top 16   Top 12    Top 8    Top 6    Top 4    Top 3    Top 2      Win
          HyuN:             0.09%   15.65%   23.16%   23.67%   10.32%    9.54%    4.45%    4.34%    2.11%    1.97%    2.17%    2.53%
  BBoongBBoong:             0.39%   45.10%   28.02%   15.89%    4.86%    3.15%    1.05%    0.79%    0.28%    0.22%    0.16%    0.09%
           Sea:            99.52%    0.47%    0.00%                                                                                 
       Nerchio:    0.28%    3.25%   24.00%   24.87%   18.44%    9.48%    7.66%    3.70%    3.00%    1.62%    1.27%    1.25%    1.17%
          puCK:   37.80%   58.75%    2.86%    0.52%    0.06%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
       Creator:    0.10%    1.16%   10.77%   17.03%   17.95%   11.04%   11.05%    6.29%    6.20%    3.61%    3.46%    4.41%    6.94%
       Shuttle:   61.82%   36.84%    1.15%    0.17%    0.01%    0.00%                                                               
     DongRaeGu:    0.54%    4.65%    7.82%   14.04%   15.82%   13.30%   12.54%    6.70%    6.92%    3.60%    3.49%    4.35%    6.21%
   TubbyTheFat:   85.44%   13.58%    0.69%    0.25%    0.03%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
          Byun:    1.91%   19.76%   24.09%   20.67%   13.35%    8.54%    5.40%    2.30%    1.75%    0.79%    0.60%    0.49%    0.35%
      Illusion:   12.10%   62.01%   14.32%    7.45%    2.72%    0.89%    0.37%    0.08%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
      Squirtle:             8.59%   16.46%   21.37%   18.88%   11.73%    8.96%    4.04%    3.69%    1.72%    1.48%    1.52%    1.56%
          CatZ:            76.52%   14.99%    6.20%    1.74%    0.38%    0.13%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%         
          YoDa:            14.88%   21.62%   25.52%   18.37%    8.64%    5.69%    1.91%    1.62%    0.57%    0.51%    0.39%    0.28%
        Sniper:    2.14%    7.01%   12.99%   18.56%   13.03%    9.47%    9.97%    7.28%    6.89%    3.03%    2.98%    3.21%    3.44%
          Glon:   69.34%   25.67%    3.17%    1.49%    0.27%    0.04%    0.02%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%                  
        TheStC:    4.44%   16.65%   23.62%   20.65%   11.55%    6.95%    5.94%    3.61%    2.98%    1.13%    1.02%    0.84%    0.63%
          ViBE:   24.09%   50.68%   13.67%    7.35%    2.51%    0.80%    0.56%    0.17%    0.13%    0.02%    0.02%    0.01%    0.00%
        Vortix:    3.34%   24.49%   15.15%   20.41%   12.05%    6.96%    6.74%    3.82%    3.29%    1.12%    1.11%    0.91%    0.62%
       Caliber:   87.10%   11.78%    0.70%    0.37%    0.04%    0.00%    0.01%                                                      
        Bomber:    2.06%   18.25%   14.02%   17.28%   11.17%    8.27%    7.96%    5.85%    5.29%    2.50%    2.27%    2.48%    2.62%
        sLivko:    7.51%   45.48%   16.69%   14.00%    6.72%    3.50%    2.72%    1.32%    1.06%    0.35%    0.31%    0.23%    0.13%
          Life:    0.95%    4.33%    6.67%   14.20%   11.17%    9.61%   10.19%    8.81%    8.79%    4.77%    4.95%    6.10%    9.45%
       Perfect:   81.43%   15.95%    1.76%    0.73%    0.11%    0.01%    0.01%             0.00%                                    
      HwangSin:    7.48%   36.05%   24.91%   15.80%    7.40%    3.55%    2.33%    1.03%    0.79%    0.27%    0.20%    0.12%    0.06%
           HuK:   10.14%   43.67%   22.26%   12.95%    5.63%    2.50%    1.50%    0.60%    0.43%    0.12%    0.11%    0.07%    0.02%
       Leenock:    2.82%    5.52%    6.67%   12.82%    9.97%    8.96%    9.11%    8.35%    8.19%    4.88%    5.04%    6.46%   11.22%
    Apocalypse:   49.77%   32.76%    7.81%    5.79%    2.19%    0.84%    0.50%    0.14%    0.13%    0.03%    0.03%    0.01%    0.01%
         GanZi:   11.57%   22.77%   18.68%   18.36%   10.46%    6.27%    4.55%    2.68%    2.13%    0.85%    0.69%    0.58%    0.40%
       goswser:   35.85%   38.95%   11.24%    8.12%    3.20%    1.27%    0.75%    0.28%    0.22%    0.05%    0.04%    0.02%    0.01%
         Ryung:    5.85%   15.57%   10.95%   19.58%   13.04%    8.63%    7.89%    4.85%    4.42%    2.61%    2.53%    2.44%    1.65%
  Eifersuchtig:   70.83%   22.80%    3.07%    2.36%    0.70%    0.12%    0.09%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%         
        Golden:   15.38%   37.52%   13.59%   15.07%    7.31%    4.06%    3.02%    1.45%    1.16%    0.51%    0.47%    0.34%    0.14%
        Genius:    7.94%   24.10%   13.97%   18.88%   10.51%    7.03%    5.82%    3.43%    2.90%    1.63%    1.53%    1.40%    0.85%
      Scarlett:    3.81%    8.04%   14.19%   21.07%   14.65%    9.32%    8.50%    5.25%    4.81%    2.90%    2.82%    2.73%    1.91%
       drewbie:   44.18%   36.77%   10.16%    6.06%    1.95%    0.45%    0.29%    0.07%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%
        Naniwa:    8.42%   17.32%   23.78%   22.43%   11.74%    5.94%    4.58%    2.02%    1.68%    0.74%    0.70%    0.46%    0.20%
     TriMaster:   43.60%   37.87%   10.29%    5.78%    1.74%    0.39%    0.21%    0.06%    0.04%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%         
            MC:    6.10%   17.71%   14.39%   18.61%   12.43%    7.82%    6.85%    4.21%    3.84%    2.31%    2.20%    2.08%    1.44%
       daisuki:   72.86%   21.58%    3.03%    1.90%    0.49%    0.08%    0.05%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%                  
           MMA:    7.51%   24.23%   16.85%   16.48%   10.34%    6.73%    5.55%    3.41%    2.86%    1.75%    1.66%    1.55%    1.09%
         Shine:   13.54%   36.48%   16.69%   13.72%    7.37%    4.17%    3.11%    1.61%    1.34%    0.67%    0.60%    0.48%    0.23%
           Sen:   12.16%   18.40%   14.27%   16.28%   10.52%    7.27%    5.95%    3.94%    3.45%    2.15%    2.05%    2.05%    1.50%
         sculp:   47.71%   31.11%    8.70%    6.73%    2.97%    1.13%    0.85%    0.30%    0.27%    0.08%    0.08%    0.04%    0.01%
        Symbol:   10.93%   17.72%   13.54%   15.37%   10.39%    7.54%    6.35%    4.43%    3.83%    2.57%    2.50%    2.60%    2.23%
          ByuL:   29.19%   32.77%   12.55%   10.81%    5.91%    3.05%    2.29%    1.13%    0.96%    0.47%    0.42%    0.30%    0.14%
         Bogus:    2.15%   15.35%   12.79%   20.75%   15.00%    9.08%    8.25%    4.07%    4.00%    2.36%    2.40%    2.28%    1.54%
        MaSsan:   87.47%   11.40%    0.70%    0.39%    0.04%    0.00%    0.00%                                                      
           Bly:    4.33%   32.42%   20.06%   17.91%   10.55%    5.22%    3.94%    1.58%    1.54%    0.76%    0.76%    0.61%    0.32%
        luvsic:    6.05%   40.82%   19.46%   15.66%    8.44%    3.77%    2.65%    1.00%    0.94%    0.39%    0.42%    0.27%    0.13%
      LucifroN:            18.57%   15.50%   21.29%   14.76%    8.60%    7.45%    3.51%    3.53%    1.93%    1.97%    1.79%    1.11%
        viOLet:            14.40%   15.07%   18.76%   13.75%    9.47%    7.84%    4.34%    4.34%    2.92%    2.97%    3.27%    2.87%
           ToD:            67.03%   16.43%    9.74%    4.02%    1.32%    0.84%    0.24%    0.21%    0.07%    0.07%    0.04%    0.01%
          Seed:    2.09%    8.94%   14.73%   22.67%   17.14%    7.53%    7.44%    4.07%    4.02%    2.86%    2.78%    3.09%    2.64%
     Sasquatch:   76.75%   20.14%    2.01%    0.94%    0.14%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%                           
         Heart:    3.73%   18.93%   24.61%   22.06%   13.43%    5.16%    4.27%    2.05%    1.87%    1.10%    1.10%    1.03%    0.66%
         MajOr:   17.44%   51.98%   16.43%    9.11%    3.35%    0.76%    0.51%    0.15%    0.15%    0.04%    0.05%    0.03%    0.01%
      Stephano:    4.30%   14.88%   11.85%   18.95%   14.73%    7.13%    6.92%    4.13%    4.08%    3.02%    3.00%    3.63%    3.39%
      theognis:   74.82%   20.81%    2.37%    1.55%    0.35%    0.05%    0.03%    0.01%    0.01%    0.00%    0.00%                  
          HerO:    5.09%   20.44%   14.32%   18.31%   13.50%    6.34%    5.80%    3.25%    3.17%    2.24%    2.33%    2.67%    2.55%
         Sting:   15.79%   43.87%   13.67%   12.64%    6.94%    2.48%    1.91%    0.82%    0.71%    0.39%    0.36%    0.31%    0.12%
         TaeJa:                                       19.98%   11.10%   17.18%    8.71%   11.11%    5.62%    6.37%    7.79%   12.15%
          Polt:                                       23.59%   15.12%   21.67%    9.02%   10.72%    4.35%    4.81%    5.21%    5.52%
         Crank:                                       44.42%   14.68%   20.85%    7.31%    7.37%    1.84%    1.84%    1.15%    0.55%
         xigua:                                       56.78%   14.89%   15.65%    4.37%    5.19%    1.13%    1.17%    0.59%    0.22%
         Sleep:                                       31.44%   13.58%   20.02%    8.79%   10.47%    4.93%    5.09%    3.85%    1.85%
         aLive:                                       37.81%   14.12%   19.23%    7.55%    9.12%    3.94%    4.12%    2.89%    1.22%
         Snute:                                       38.97%   15.39%   20.97%    6.89%    7.84%    3.23%    3.45%    2.32%    0.95%
           San:                                       34.41%   12.27%   17.83%    7.52%    9.29%    5.04%    5.61%    4.97%    3.06%

+ Show Spoiler [Most likely to be eliminated by...] +

          HyuN:     Creator (15.40%)     Nerchio (13.00%)       TaeJa ( 9.29%)
  BBoongBBoong:     Nerchio (28.49%)     Creator (22.54%)        Seed ( 7.80%)
           Sea:  BBoongBBoo (67.80%)        HyuN (31.72%)     Nerchio ( 0.28%)
       Nerchio:  BBoongBBoo (15.14%)        HyuN (14.58%)        Seed ( 8.70%)
          puCK:     Nerchio (37.93%)     Shuttle (36.03%)     Creator (22.59%)
       Creator:        HyuN (10.91%)       TaeJa ( 7.62%)  BBoongBBoo ( 7.35%)
       Shuttle:        puCK (56.49%)     Nerchio (26.90%)     Creator (15.28%)
     DongRaeGu:    Squirtle ( 9.02%)       TaeJa ( 7.35%)        Polt ( 7.29%)
   TubbyTheFat:    Illusion (61.68%)        Byun (31.79%)   DongRaeGu ( 5.55%)
          Byun:    Illusion (16.79%)    Squirtle (14.47%)        YoDa (11.46%)
      Illusion:        Byun (44.46%)   DongRaeGu (18.89%)  TubbyTheFa (10.76%)
      Squirtle:   DongRaeGu (12.96%)        Byun (10.58%)      viOLet ( 7.79%)
          CatZ:        YoDa (39.45%)    Squirtle (37.07%)        Byun ( 8.28%)
          YoDa:   DongRaeGu (13.48%)        Byun (13.46%)        CatZ (12.43%)
        Sniper:      Bomber ( 9.35%)      Vortix ( 6.06%)      Symbol ( 5.63%)
          Glon:        ViBE (50.19%)      TheStC (32.29%)      Sniper (12.52%)
        TheStC:      Bomber (12.46%)        ViBE (12.28%)      Vortix ( 8.56%)
          ViBE:      TheStC (33.78%)      Sniper (20.81%)        Glon (20.17%)
        Vortix:      sLivko (17.70%)      Bomber ( 9.75%)      Sniper ( 9.49%)
       Caliber:      sLivko (59.48%)      Bomber (33.10%)      Vortix ( 6.29%)
        Bomber:      sLivko (12.94%)      Sniper ( 9.03%)      TheStC ( 8.17%)
        sLivko:      Bomber (25.71%)      Vortix (21.99%)      TheStC ( 8.82%)
          Life:     Leenock (10.55%)    Scarlett ( 4.94%)       Ryung ( 4.78%)
       Perfect:         HuK (48.08%)    HwangSin (43.53%)        Life ( 5.77%)
      HwangSin:         HuK (29.00%)       GanZi (11.04%)     Leenock (10.29%)
           HuK:    HwangSin (34.46%)        Life (10.16%)       GanZi ( 9.99%)
       Leenock:        Life ( 9.22%)    Scarlett ( 4.97%)       Ryung ( 4.63%)
    Apocalypse:     goswser (34.75%)       GanZi (33.60%)     Leenock (14.18%)
         GanZi:  Apocalypse (14.46%)     goswser (12.67%)        Life ( 8.66%)
       goswser:  Apocalypse (31.57%)       GanZi (26.49%)     Leenock (16.75%)
         Ryung:      Golden (10.98%)     Leenock ( 9.33%)    Scarlett ( 8.76%)
  Eifersuchtig:      Golden (45.47%)      Genius (36.52%)       Ryung (11.64%)
        Golden:      Genius (23.99%)       Ryung (17.29%)  Eifersucht (11.63%)
        Genius:      Golden (16.67%)       Ryung ( 9.19%)    Scarlett ( 8.66%)
      Scarlett:     Leenock ( 9.73%)       Ryung ( 8.58%)        Life ( 8.44%)
       drewbie:   TriMaster (32.07%)      Naniwa (30.43%)    Scarlett (18.45%)
        Naniwa:     drewbie (11.40%)      Genius (10.85%)       Ryung (10.36%)
     TriMaster:     drewbie (35.85%)      Naniwa (24.28%)    Scarlett (21.35%)
            MC:       Shine (12.39%)         MMA ( 9.74%)      Symbol ( 8.05%)
       daisuki:       Shine (46.15%)         MMA (37.24%)          MC (11.04%)
           MMA:       Shine (16.51%)          MC ( 9.63%)      Symbol ( 8.22%)
         Shine:         MMA (23.12%)          MC (16.86%)     daisuki (10.05%)
           Sen:        ByuL (13.58%)      Symbol (10.53%)         MMA ( 7.14%)
         sculp:        ByuL (34.54%)      Symbol (27.56%)         Sen (16.72%)
        Symbol:        ByuL (10.15%)       sculp ( 9.31%)         Sen ( 9.24%)
          ByuL:         Sen (21.64%)       sculp (21.53%)      Symbol (18.81%)
         Bogus:      viOLet ( 9.76%)      luvsic ( 9.26%)         Bly ( 7.94%)
        MaSsan:      luvsic (50.02%)         Bly (43.25%)       Bogus ( 5.61%)
           Bly:      luvsic (23.26%)      viOLet (11.33%)       Bogus (10.31%)
        luvsic:         Bly (27.88%)       Bogus (14.51%)      viOLet (10.69%)
      LucifroN:         ToD (14.10%)   DongRaeGu ( 8.44%)       Bogus ( 8.25%)
        viOLet:         ToD (11.32%)   DongRaeGu ( 8.73%)       Bogus ( 7.49%)
           ToD:      viOLet (36.22%)    LucifroN (30.81%)         Bly ( 6.51%)
          Seed:     Creator (10.21%)        HerO ( 9.30%)    Stephano ( 9.11%)
     Sasquatch:       MajOr (54.15%)       Heart (32.71%)        Seed (10.02%)
         Heart:       MajOr (14.53%)        HerO (12.27%)    Stephano (10.88%)
         MajOr:       Heart (34.31%)        Seed (20.83%)   Sasquatch (14.28%)
      Stephano:       Sting (10.82%)     Creator ( 9.34%)        Seed ( 7.99%)
      theognis:       Sting (50.63%)        HerO (33.97%)    Stephano (11.03%)
          HerO:       Sting (14.56%)     Creator ( 8.81%)        Seed ( 8.13%)
         Sting:        HerO (27.37%)    Stephano (20.27%)    theognis (12.03%)
         TaeJa:     Creator ( 8.86%)        Polt ( 8.40%)        HyuN ( 7.73%)
          Polt:       TaeJa (11.63%)   DongRaeGu (10.42%)     Creator ( 8.29%)
         Crank:      Sniper (10.68%)        Life ( 8.39%)      Bomber ( 8.00%)
         xigua:        Life (18.80%)     Leenock (16.06%)      Genius ( 5.88%)
         Sleep:     Leenock ( 9.25%)    Scarlett ( 7.81%)       Ryung ( 6.40%)
         aLive:      Bomber ( 6.90%)          MC ( 6.83%)       Sleep ( 6.67%)
         Snute:       Bogus ( 8.12%)   DongRaeGu ( 7.10%)         San ( 7.05%)
           San:     Creator ( 9.29%)        Seed ( 8.06%)     Nerchio ( 7.54%)

+ Show Spoiler [Most likely to be sent to the losers b…] +

          HyuN:  BBoongBBoo (31.81%)     Creator (25.10%)       TaeJa (17.09%)
  BBoongBBoong:        HyuN (67.62%)     Creator (15.04%)     Nerchio ( 7.60%)
           Sea:  BBoongBBoo (99.43%)        HyuN ( 0.57%)     Nerchio ( 0.00%)
       Nerchio:     Creator (57.10%)        HyuN (13.50%)       TaeJa (11.17%)
          puCK:     Nerchio (94.18%)     Creator ( 5.50%)        HyuN ( 0.18%)
       Creator:     Nerchio (35.19%)       TaeJa (18.50%)        HyuN (17.56%)
       Shuttle:     Creator (97.97%)     Nerchio ( 1.85%)        HyuN ( 0.08%)
     DongRaeGu:        Byun (23.98%)        Polt (18.29%)    Squirtle (14.76%)
   TubbyTheFat:   DongRaeGu (97.40%)        Byun ( 1.78%)    Illusion ( 0.59%)
          Byun:   DongRaeGu (46.97%)    Illusion (27.17%)    Squirtle ( 7.70%)
      Illusion:        Byun (72.83%)   DongRaeGu (22.38%)    Squirtle ( 1.94%)
      Squirtle:        YoDa (32.01%)   DongRaeGu (21.21%)        CatZ (16.11%)
          CatZ:    Squirtle (83.89%)        YoDa (12.17%)   DongRaeGu ( 2.42%)
          YoDa:    Squirtle (51.89%)   DongRaeGu (21.55%)        Polt ( 9.61%)
        Sniper:      TheStC (27.09%)      Bomber (12.87%)      Vortix ( 9.57%)
          Glon:      Sniper (91.55%)      TheStC ( 5.43%)        ViBE ( 1.65%)
        TheStC:      Sniper (39.74%)        ViBE (27.03%)      Bomber ( 8.45%)
          ViBE:      TheStC (72.97%)      Sniper (19.79%)      Bomber ( 2.27%)
        Vortix:      Bomber (38.38%)      Sniper (14.89%)      sLivko (13.92%)
       Caliber:      Vortix (93.41%)      Bomber ( 4.18%)      sLivko ( 2.06%)
        Bomber:      sLivko (33.41%)      Vortix (23.87%)      Sniper (12.43%)
        sLivko:      Bomber (66.59%)      Vortix (17.24%)      Sniper ( 6.33%)
          Life:     Leenock (26.02%)    HwangSin (12.30%)         HuK ( 9.04%)
       Perfect:        Life (95.79%)    HwangSin ( 1.93%)         HuK ( 1.66%)
      HwangSin:         HuK (45.63%)        Life (39.82%)     Leenock ( 7.29%)
           HuK:    HwangSin (54.37%)        Life (34.63%)     Leenock ( 5.65%)
       Leenock:        Life (22.62%)       GanZi (16.45%)  Apocalypse (14.25%)
    Apocalypse:     Leenock (85.75%)       GanZi ( 6.78%)        Life ( 3.21%)
         GanZi:     Leenock (41.77%)     goswser (32.11%)        Life (11.84%)
       goswser:       GanZi (67.89%)     Leenock (23.21%)        Life ( 4.06%)
         Ryung:      Genius (24.54%)    Scarlett (13.71%)  Eifersucht (13.61%)
  Eifersuchtig:       Ryung (86.39%)      Genius ( 6.91%)      Golden ( 4.40%)
        Golden:      Genius (59.39%)       Ryung (21.51%)    Scarlett ( 6.15%)
        Genius:      Golden (40.61%)       Ryung (26.74%)    Scarlett ( 9.23%)
      Scarlett:      Naniwa (22.92%)     drewbie (17.70%)       Ryung (13.44%)
       drewbie:    Scarlett (82.30%)      Naniwa ( 9.60%)       Ryung ( 2.36%)
        Naniwa:    Scarlett (38.75%)   TriMaster (25.10%)       Ryung ( 9.70%)
     TriMaster:      Naniwa (74.90%)    Scarlett (17.29%)     drewbie ( 2.33%)
            MC:         MMA (25.47%)       Shine (15.26%)     daisuki (13.34%)
       daisuki:          MC (86.66%)         MMA ( 6.83%)       Shine ( 4.52%)
           MMA:       Shine (41.63%)          MC (25.02%)      Symbol ( 6.74%)
         Shine:         MMA (58.37%)          MC (20.92%)      Symbol ( 4.78%)
           Sen:       sculp (27.84%)      Symbol (25.00%)        ByuL ( 9.60%)
         sculp:         Sen (72.16%)      Symbol (13.54%)        ByuL ( 6.00%)
        Symbol:        ByuL (34.97%)         Sen (21.94%)          MC ( 7.93%)
          ByuL:      Symbol (65.03%)         Sen (15.63%)          MC ( 4.26%)
         Bogus:         Bly (22.61%)      luvsic (16.90%)      viOLet (14.08%)
        MaSsan:       Bogus (94.72%)         Bly ( 2.71%)      luvsic ( 2.19%)
           Bly:      luvsic (45.46%)       Bogus (29.02%)      viOLet ( 7.15%)
        luvsic:         Bly (54.53%)       Bogus (26.18%)      viOLet ( 5.84%)
      LucifroN:      viOLet (44.92%)       Bogus (13.73%)       Snute ( 9.63%)
        viOLet:    LucifroN (31.17%)         ToD (23.91%)       Bogus (10.69%)
           ToD:      viOLet (76.09%)    LucifroN (16.37%)       Bogus ( 2.98%)
          Seed:       Heart (28.02%)    Stephano (15.39%)         San (11.70%)
     Sasquatch:        Seed (92.93%)       Heart ( 4.51%)       MajOr ( 1.65%)
         Heart:        Seed (37.40%)       MajOr (29.61%)    Stephano ( 9.64%)
         MajOr:       Heart (70.39%)        Seed (20.91%)    Stephano ( 3.14%)
      Stephano:        HerO (29.41%)        Seed (13.20%)       Sting (10.89%)
      theognis:    Stephano (89.29%)        HerO ( 6.25%)       Sting ( 3.03%)
          HerO:       Sting (34.62%)    Stephano (28.99%)        Seed ( 9.71%)
         Sting:        HerO (65.38%)    Stephano (20.01%)        Seed ( 5.06%)
         TaeJa:     Creator (21.87%)        HyuN (14.29%)        Polt (10.94%)
          Polt:   DongRaeGu (26.97%)       TaeJa (15.17%)    Squirtle (12.41%)
         Crank:      Sniper (24.32%)      Bomber (17.51%)      Vortix (11.45%)
         xigua:        Life (34.08%)     Leenock (33.00%)       GanZi ( 6.09%)
         Sleep:    Scarlett (18.13%)       Ryung (16.49%)      Genius (10.10%)
         aLive:      Symbol (14.79%)          MC (14.36%)         Sen (12.92%)
         Snute:      viOLet (18.92%)       Bogus (17.30%)    LucifroN (14.90%)
           San:    Stephano (17.92%)        Seed (17.03%)        HerO (12.98%)

In before obligatory "starcraft too random" post.

Also Sea goes mass tanks vs Protoss. That´s all you have to know about this guy.

Deckkie

Netherlands1595 Posts

November 27 2012 10:21 GMT

#133

This may be the best three day tournament of the year.

budar

175 Posts

November 27 2012 10:47 GMT

#134

This tournament looks so sick good. Looking forward to it

Lumi

United States1616 Posts

November 27 2012 11:03 GMT

#135

It really is so tough to predict. As a Zerg fan.. everyone is here. But, I'm going with DongRaeGu. He can do this, and he's my favorite to win it.

Lukeeze[zR]

Switzerland6838 Posts

November 27 2012 11:27 GMT

#136

It's ok to give better seeds to the qualifiers winners, but starting from round 4 is a ridiculously OP advantage.

silent_owl

Philippines3098 Posts

November 27 2012 11:40 GMT

#137

Squirtle, man I hope he finally WINS something.

Personally rooting for Life. That kid is a BOSS.

opterown

Australia54785 Posts

November 27 2012 11:41 GMT

#138

On November 27 2012 19:21 Deckkie wrote:
This may be the best three day tournament of the year.

*four :p

WindWolf

Sweden11767 Posts

November 27 2012 11:49 GMT

#139

On November 27 2012 20:27 Lukeeze[zR] wrote:
It's ok to give better seeds to the qualifiers winners, but starting from round 4 is a ridiculously OP advantage.

IPL's original plan was to have a 40-player tournament (with 8 players therefor getting a bye to R3), but they changed it after complains.

Alternative way to look at it, we can say that the 64-player "starting-bracket" is this IPL's open bracket and that R4-onward is the "main tournament"

vthree

Hong Kong8039 Posts

November 27 2012 12:02 GMT

#140

Actually, I think the chances of one of these 8 winning is less than 50%. Sure, they are seeded deep and individually, they have a higher chance of winning compare to people in Round 1. However, there will be at least 8 players making it to Ro16 to take on these 8. And looking at this field, those 8 coming from round 1 and onwards will be 'stronger' than these 8.

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