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On October 18 2012 16:41 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 16:36 Yello wrote:On October 18 2012 16:32 TheBB wrote:I ran my Elo-based probability script a few times again. Based on the ratings, Sniper is an overwhelming favourite to win, and in the other matches, the ESF players are favoured by about 55-45. (Is Shy really that good?) + Show Spoiler [Sirius vs. Sniper] +Sirius vs. Sniper
Sirius wins (19.422%):
2-0: 7.975%
2-1: 11.446%
Sniper wins (80.578%):
2-0: 51.494%
2-1: 29.085%
Most likely winner: Sniper (80.578%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Sniper (51.494%) sHy vs. Seed
sHy wins (45.585%):
2-0: 22.140%
2-1: 23.445%
Seed wins (54.415%):
2-0: 28.034%
2-1: 26.381%
Most likely winner: Seed (54.415%)
Most likely outcome: sHy 0-2 Seed (28.034%) Bogus vs. Happy
Bogus wins (44.195%):
2-0: 21.273%
2-1: 22.922%
Happy wins (55.805%):
2-0: 29.028%
2-1: 26.777%
Most likely winner: Happy (55.805%)
Most likely outcome: Bogus 0-2 Happy (29.028%) Trap vs. GuMiho
Trap wins (45.692%):
2-0: 22.208%
2-1: 23.485%
GuMiho wins (54.308%):
2-0: 27.958%
2-1: 26.350%
Most likely winner: GuMiho (54.308%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 0-2 GuMiho (27.958%) Hm. I will check this out again after the games. I wonder how accurate this could be ^.^ I tried it with the GSL semis, and it flunked both tests. XD Though to be honest, the only thing you should read from those numbers is that Sniper will likely win, and the other matches are essentially open (which doesn't mean that they will be close).
So we should maybe call it the 'statistical jinx'? :D
Thank you for posting it though. I like to read those statistics before the game so please keep them coming 
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United States97274 Posts
On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time.
He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today
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On October 18 2012 17:26 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time. He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today
Sad times.
I can probably do it albeit much slower if noone else can do it I suppose though.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
I'd do it 'cept I don't like kpop, haha
Going with Sniper, Seed, Happy and Gumiho today.
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On October 18 2012 17:26 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time. He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today
Lost his pashun.
Can't see Sirius beating Sniper, Sniper seems to be eternally underrated and has shown that especially in ZvZ he is not to be messed with. Shy vs Seed i predict being very one sided as well, even though it's still PvP and anything can happen...Shy has also proven himself to be quite competent so i dunno if it's going to be as much of a romp for Seed as i predict it to be.
Bogus vs Happy should be fun, and i do think Bogus should win that, but it's going to be close. Gumiho vs Trap is a difficult one, i really like Trap but i like Gumiho even more, so i'm just going to hope that it's a great series and not try and predict that outcome >_<
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On October 18 2012 17:28 Dasende wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 17:26 Shellshock1122 wrote:On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time. He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today Sad times. I can probably do it albeit much slower if noone else can do it I suppose though.
I think we can live without a kpop list.
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United States97274 Posts
On October 18 2012 17:35 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 17:28 Dasende wrote:On October 18 2012 17:26 Shellshock1122 wrote:On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time. He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today Sad times. I can probably do it albeit much slower if noone else can do it I suppose though. I think we can live without a kpop list.
idk. There might be riots
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On October 18 2012 17:41 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 17:35 TheBB wrote:On October 18 2012 17:28 Dasende wrote:On October 18 2012 17:26 Shellshock1122 wrote:On October 18 2012 17:24 Dasende wrote:
HaXX or whomever, can you do the kpop today? A little busy so not sure if I'll be done in time. He's at school giving a speech on space or some shit today Sad times. I can probably do it albeit much slower if noone else can do it I suppose though. I think we can live without a kpop list. idk. There might be riots
Pussy Riots?
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Very interesting music video.
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Sniper, Seed, Bogus, Trap.
Though I really, really want Gumiho in Code S goddamn it :<
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There was Infinite today, and a year old at that? Odd, kinda goes against what has been the standard for a while now. Not that I mind, I really wish we could go back to playing Fiction every single day.
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On October 18 2012 17:58 Hall0wed wrote:
There was Infinite today, and a year old at that? Odd, kinda goes against what has been the standard for a while now. Not that I mind, I really wish we could go back to playing Fiction every single day.
I know it threw me off...
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It just occurred to me how incredibly formulaic almost every k-pop music video is. You can almost interchange them and you wouldn't notice the difference.
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things i would do to suzi
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On October 18 2012 18:03 Diizzy wrote:
things i would do to suzi
Good thing you didn't say that 9 days ago.
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EPT
