Fantasy Update - Issue 1

Fantasy Update
Issue 1 – January 29, 2009

After the break for Lunar New Year, Starcraft is ready to resume again. After an exciting first Week of Winners League we are going to get back to the action in just a couple days. That fantasy results thus far for the All-Kill format have been at bit unpredictable, with many big names not being the ones to pull weight for their teams and many are wondering if this is just a warm up or if it will be a continuing trend for the next six weeks….

Fantasy Proleague

Top Guns

The players that have yielded the most points are not all the ones we might have expected to do the gun slinging for their teams, or at least not quite as successfully as they have. It appears as though the Mavericks and Gooses of the teams are held back, while the guys who normally operate the radio back at base are given first shot at things.

Players like (Z)

Jaedong and (T)

Leta were held until their teams absolutely needed them, giving these top players less chances for multiple wins unless their teams find themselves a few games behind. For weaker teams this works to the players advantage in fantasy scoring, as the teams are more likely to fall behind and have to rely on one of their few stars to pull them out of a hole.

(P)

Anytime for ACE fits this very well. Few of the players can pull their weight on ACE with such little time devoted to practice in comparison to the other teams, but Anytime can still pull wins. When the team is behind, he has to be relied on to get multiples of them and should be getting chances all season to pull off double and triple kills. Players like (Z)

Luxury,

Flash and

Mind may find their relatively weaker teams a game or two behind and be sent out to clean up.

But the stronger teams like Samsung or SK Telecom have deep lineups. As a team, they will likely do well in this format, even if they might be off to an auspicious start. Individually it may be a nightmare. Tier two players are likely to be sent out first, but the tier two players on these teams are no real slouches, they just have monsters to compete against like (P)

Stork or

Bisu. These second tier players are more likely to be taking a few wins here and there and then when its time to bring out the big guns the team will only need one or two wins to place a mark in the win column.

The top guns on lesser teams will more than likely be worth their costs and perform reasonably well. Though the top guns on stronger teams will still be getting their points, they won’t be given opportunities to explode all over the other teams. They will get their consistent points from a single win at the end of the lineup in most of the weeks. It won’t be a lot of points, but they will still earn a fair share.

KTF or Not?

KTF was placed on a large number of teams with just over 40% of all teams choosing them, which was really no surprise as they were a bargain at zero points. But in the end are they going to be the best choice?

It is highly unlikely that KTF will boast the best record by the end of Winners League, but most people expect them to perform better than last round and no one should be surprised if they do. KTF will probably perform average out of all the teams, or maybe a bit below, but since they cost significantly less than other teams, they allowed more points to be spent on speculation of individual players that might do well, giving a team those extra few points to buy (P)

Bisu or

Jaedong, or even both.

After week one, the teams who have KTF are spread all throughout the rankings, so there is no immediate conclusion whether this was a better or worse decision for teams. In the current top ten of the standings, only three teams have KTF in their lineup, slightly less than the 40% of all teams, and KTF is not on the teams in first through third, who all have different teams from one another.

It wasn’t a completely clear cut decision, as more than 50% of the teams did not choose KTF, though I suspect at least 10% of the choices were purely fanboyism. Of the others that picked other teams they are likely looking to pick up those few extra points and value from choosing the team with the best winning record. When the season wins will the KTF teams have a higher curve or will the teams that successfully chose the team to walk away with the best record have the better curve in the standings?

As the season continues we will have to watch and see if the KTF teams come to a rise over everyone else or if they merely were just another option in the blend of team picks.

Each week I will be including a bit from a guest writer or two. This week I invited Abydos1 to share a bit about statistics. He has made a few great statistics threads so far regarding the Fantasy Proleague, which you can find a link for at the bottom of this issue of Fantasy Update. If you think you have something you want to write about for Fantasy, send a PM with your suggestions to semioldguy.

Great Expectations
by Abydos1

At the end of week 1 many players may be contemplating their pricier picks. With (P)

Bisu(6pts) and (T)

Flash(3pts) not generating the points they're expected to get in this all-kill format; while, on the other hand, players like (Z)

Luxury(13pts) and (P)

Anytime(14pts) (both costing only 3 points) have been generating impressive numbers.

If we look at the average number of points earned (points not including team wins) grouped by player cost as shown here:

We see the points spread out over all of the groups with Anytime & Luxury boosting the average of the 3-point cost group. Remember that the 12 point through 7 point groups only have 1 or 2 players each so the averages shown there will be heavily influenced by each of those players. However, if we graph average earned points grouped by a players ELO rank on their team we get a much clearer picture of things:

Almost all of the points earned through wins have been by the top 3 ELO ranked players on each team; Luxury (2nd on KTF) and Anytime (1st on ACE) have both been leading their teams. The expected dominance of the high cost players like (Z)

Jaedong and (T)

Leta may have had some people overlooking the cheaper alternatives on other teams.

While we are off to a crazy start after week 1, don't get discouraged at your expensive players' failures, count on Bisu & Flash (both ELO rank 1 on their teams) to generate impressive win streaks of their own. If you picked one of the cheap, higher ELO ranked players on a team that isn't expected to do well (like Anytime on ACE) enjoy the points they've generated and you can probably count on more but don't expect an impressive amount from them when they're the only players counted on for wins on their team which could see them used more conservatively or make them prone to snipes.

Fantasy Proleague in the Books

At the end of the first week, it should come as a surprise to almost anyone that a player from ACE, the worst Starcraft team of all, sits above every other player at the top of the standings. Many wouldn’t have been surprised if ACE went winless in this format, but with a player than can put together wins, they have already exceeded the expectations of many and could very well continue to do so if other teams are not careful. Behind (P)

Anytime, the two Zerg brothers, (Z)

Luxury and (Z)

YellOw[ArnC] have a place near the top of the standing, each brother with an all-kill already and the only two players to do so after week one.

Is anyone surprised to see intrigue in the top of the rankings again, even with more than four times as many participants? He was comfortable at number one for the first few days, but now sits at a still very impressive number seven. He’s probably just hanging low a while though before his team goes insane again.

pangshai sits alone in the top position for now as week one closes, having netted a total of 47 points in the first week behind impressive runs from the current top two scoring players. doubleupgradeobbies!, the runner-up from last season is just outside the top ten at the end of the week. It’s good to see familiar names at the top from last season, these guys probably know a little more about this fantasy stuff than the rest of us.

Fantasy Starleagues

OSL Under Way

The Round of 36 and an unexpected Round of Wildcards are over and of the original 447 entries, 156 of them have five players into the Round of 16 of Batoo OSL. Everybody managed to earn at least one point, but not everyone has a player advancing to the Group Stage. Five teams managed to pick a team of five players in which no one advanced from, however, all of these teams spent less than 10 points creating their teams, so they have not been left with zero points.

(P)

BackHo drops out of the OSL due to injury, and as a result, the 322 participants who put (P)

Bisu on their teams were given a second chance and are now breathing a big sigh of relief. Though the 13 people who picked BackHo will be disappointed not to see him with a chance to score points, they can take solace that he did earn them one point before he fell off the map. Four of those 13 even had Bisu, so they might have benefited more from the injury with both an extra point for a player that didn’t make it and an arguably stronger replacement for earning points with the big boys.

Current Top Rankings:
Rank – Team – Points – Players Remaining
1 - hasuprotoss - 12 - 2
2 - doghunter - 11 - 3
2 - qrs - 11 - 3
2 - Taskmaster - 11 - 3
5 - Revolutionary - 11 - 2
6 - azndsh - 11 - 1
6 - FaCE_1 - 11 - 1
6 - Syxygy - 11 - 1
6 - Too_MuchZerg - 11 - 1
10 - ChaoSbringer - 10 - 5
10 - curiousgeorge - 10 - 5
10 - Mikilatov - 10 - 5
10 - SonuvBob - 10 - 5
10 - trollbone - 10 - 5

Those ranked currently at number ten are looking quite strong as the favorites to win the whole thing so far. They were both economic and successful in their team selection and so far it is paying off. The cheapest team that could have been made to get all five people into the Group Stage would have cost 3 points, getting you seven additional points to start off with, choosing (0) (T)

Leta, (0)

by.hero, and any three of: (1) (P)

Tester, (1) (P)

Kal, (1)

YellOw[ArnC], (1) (Z)

Jaedong, (1) (T)

Hwasin or (1) (T)

UpMagiC.

Group selection is only a night away and many teams will want to tune in to make sure their remaining players are spread evenly among the four groups.

Gathering Resources

Daily Fantasy Rankings – Hot_Bid is at it again! Keep up to date every day with blog entries and all sorts of cool stats.

Fantasy Proleague Statistics – Check out the plethora of interesting stats Abydos1 has compiled as the new Fantasy Proleague season is just beginning!

Fantasy OSL Rankings – The complete standings for the Fantasy OSL are finally up. If you’re participating see where you stand among all the other competitors!

-semioldguy

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