EPTCJ Shirt Lottery Date - Page 4
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errol1001
454 Posts
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useLess
United States4781 Posts
On September 09 2008 12:45 mmdmmd wrote: I think I got WS BS BM combo ^^ Thank God I register an TL account a while back when there was an interesting topic on the forum... too bad it doesn't allow me to post immediately  ill be angry if you win one D: | ||
Empyrean
16992 Posts
...it's past the announced time <_< I'm refreshing TL.net like mad, but I'm afraid I'm not going to be able to see the results before I go to sleep | ||
Hot_Bid
Braavos36375 Posts
On September 09 2008 15:31 Empyrean wrote: Wait. ...it's past the announced time <_< I'm refreshing TL.net like mad, but I'm afraid I'm not going to be able to see the results before I go to sleep It's tomorrow. | ||
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economist_
Vietnam719 Posts
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Blind
United States2528 Posts
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Culture
Canada488 Posts
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pewpew
United States132 Posts
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Navane
Netherlands2748 Posts
edit: I did some statistics, and I think it has to do with the fact that usa has more contestants. But still i'm off substantial. Also, contrary to my expectations: 0.43 of the europeans ordered a Large, vs 0.32 of the americans. | ||
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jgad
Canada899 Posts
On September 09 2008 10:48 thunk wrote: There's a disproportionate number of smalls. *something anthropogenic here* Anthropogenic? That means "man-made". 0_o | ||
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zuqbu
Germany797 Posts
 edit: my gf is already jealous because i don't have her picture set as a wallpaper but this "japanese guy" :D | ||
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Roxen000
1226 Posts
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jgad
Canada899 Posts
On September 09 2008 15:16 errol1001 wrote: Calm down on the probabilities... They're doing what HotBid said, which was to add them since they're small and hence close to the true value anyway. Yep. For two shirts where p1 is probability of one shirt and p2 is probability of second shirt : probability of win = 1- (1-p1)*(1-p2) = p1 + p2 - p1*p2 so if p1*p2 << p1 + p2, then you can say probability ~ p1 + p2 For small probabilities this is pretty close. Say the odds are 10% for one shirt and 8% for a second shirt : = 0.1 + 0.08 - (0.1 x 0.8) = 0.1 + 0.08 - 0.008 = 0.172 = 17.2% chance of winning if you just add them, you would have got 18%, which is pretty close. If your odds are higher, though, say 50% for one shirt and 75% for a second shirt, then : = 0.5 + 0.75 - (0.5 x 0.75) = 0.5 + 0.75 - 0.375 = 0.875 = 87.5% chance of winning If you just added them, you would have gotten 125% - the error is bigger. So long as the odds are small you can guess pretty closely just by adding. Basically, you take your highest odds and then take a percentage of what's left after that. If what's left is almost 100%, then a small percent of it will be pretty close to a small percent of 100. If my odds of the first shirt are 5% and the second is 5%, then I take the first and say that I have at least a 5% chance of winning. I also have a 5% chance of winning with the 95% left, but 5% of 95% is pretty close to 5% of 100%, so you can just add. If it's 50% for both, then I have 50% chance of win on the first one and a 50% chance of the remaining 50%. Half of half is much less than half of a whole, though, so adding doesn't work, I get 100% instead of the correct 75%. | ||
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iloveHieu
United States1919 Posts
the odds is pretty much slim to none, good luck to me ONLY! | ||
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Schnake
Germany2819 Posts
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sundance
Slovakia3201 Posts
. My chances are pretty high but I never won anything, so I doubt this lottery will be any different . | ||
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Guss
Sweden712 Posts
im praying for a black small | ||
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HasU.T1
Brazil7 Posts
I have a small chance, but i don´t quit!!!!! THANK`S TL T.T | ||
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jgad
Canada899 Posts
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Hot_Bid
Braavos36375 Posts
On September 09 2008 19:01 Roxen000 wrote: How does it work if we selected 'other' as the location? ;o The "other" people were divided 50-50 between Europe and America, it's random. | ||
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