EPTjeez don't see I'm getting one =( hope for more shirts from CJ in the near future~
CJ Shirt Lottery Date - Page 2
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iloveHieu
United States1919 Posts
jeez don't see I'm getting one =( hope for more shirts from CJ in the near future~ | ||
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blabber
United States4448 Posts
On September 09 2008 09:35 iloveHieu wrote: immediate payment required or loss of chance please!!!! jeez don't see I'm getting one =( hope for more shirts from CJ in the near future~ most likely there will be at least a few people who won't pay, so if you don't win the lottery initially, there is still some hope | ||
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DanceCommander
United States1808 Posts
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IzzyCraft
United States4487 Posts
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Pyrthas
United States3196 Posts
On September 09 2008 08:50 Hot_Bid wrote: Remember, everyone had three entries, so to find your overall chance to get a shirt, add up all three categories you entered. Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%. | ||
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paper
13196 Posts
On September 09 2008 10:01 Pyrthas wrote: Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%. (1 - 0.115) * (1 - 0.092) * (1 - 0.057) = 0.75777594 which makes for a 24.2% chance of winning at least one shirt. I'm probably wrong :D | ||
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Pyrthas
United States3196 Posts
On September 09 2008 10:09 paper wrote: (1 - 0.115) * (1 - 0.092) * (1 - 0.057) = 0.75777594 which makes for a 24.2% chance of winning at least one shirt. I'm probably wrong :D No you're right I was using calc and apparently typed .953 instead of .943. Gogo typos. | ||
JWD
United States12607 Posts
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LonelyMargarita
1845 Posts
On September 09 2008 10:01 Pyrthas wrote: Just want to point out that this isn't how probability works. Consider: I'm going to draw a card from a deck and flip a coin. You win if I draw a red card (50%) or if I get heads (50%) or if I do both. You do not have a 100% chance to win. (Especially clear: I also roll a die, and you will also win if I roll a 1, 2, or 3. You do not have a 150% chance to win.) The chance of winning at least one shirt if you picked European WS BS BM is about 22.6%. It's actually 24.22%. Makes me wish I had gone with 2 small entries, even though my chest measures 100cm. It would still look nice in my closet even if it didn't stretch out at all. I'd have almost double my ~13% odds that I got from M/M/S. | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
so I guess I have a 20.4% chance :D 1/5 isnt too bad | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
Just over 24% weeeee! I'm so going to lose. | ||
CaucasianAsian
Korea (South)11585 Posts
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ctang
China74 Posts
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Seku
United States313 Posts
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Dark_Luster
Korea (South)438 Posts
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anch
United States5457 Posts
3% to get a USA Large. wooot, | ||
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prOxi.swAMi
Australia3091 Posts
Good luck to all entrants! | ||
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thunk
United States6233 Posts
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
Im sure when cj sees how fast this sold out there will send more shirts in the future | ||
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aRod
United States758 Posts
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