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All Eight Groups!

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by Waxangel

ASUS ROG is back in...

After spending one season in Finland-only form, ASUS ROG/Assembly has returned to the international stage. Thirty two of the most skilled and well-known SC2 pros in the world have assembled in Helsinki, Finland to fight over a prize pool of $25,000. With multiple community streams and best of five group stage matches, ASUS ROG guarantees an overload of top quality StarCraft II.

Let's take a look at the first day of matches, where the entire Ro32 and around a hundred games will be played. There may be changes or cancellations due to unforeseen circumstances.

*All groups are played in "GSL style" double elimination format. All matches are best of five.


Group 1: TSL_HyuN vs. coL.viPro, NrS.Welmu vs. d.TargA

You'd think that the DreamHack Valencia champion would be a strong favorite to win this entire tournament and crush his Ro32 group in the process, but it might not be so clear-cut. Despite looking unstoppable when he's rolling, HyuN is also prone to taking surprise losses to foreigners as well. Puck just defeated HyuN 2 - 1 in the first round of WCS America's challenger League, while Snute and TLO held him to a fourth place finish back at HomeStory Cup 7 as well.

WCS Europe Ro16 player Welmu is obviously the biggest candidate to potentially take out HyuN, but after HyuN lost to puCK, would you be terribly surprised if he lost to viPro or Targa either? Also, kudos to Welmu for winning the previous ASUS ROG tournament, proving he was the best Finnish player at the end of WoL!

So don't worry too much, Nordic SC2 fans. There's still hope in this group yet. On a final note, SETT really missed an opportunity here by not swapping HyuN out for Bunny and making this a full on Nordic group.


Group 2: SK_MC vs. Bischu, Empire|Happy vs. BetterThanLife_SjoW

Believe it or not, the player with the second most tournament winnings in StarCraft II hasn't won a championship in over a year now. Sure, MC has still been placing reasonably high in tournaments and adding small chunks of cash to his coffers—he just placed top four at IEM Shanghai and top eight at HomeStory 7—but it's been awfully long since he stood on a stage, holding a check for an obscene amount of money. It's fair to say the cause of all this is a general decline in his form, but that doesn't mean he's washed up. He's still one of the contenders for the title in this tournament, just not a prohibitive favorite to win like he once would have been.

The rest of the group is a trio of cult favorite Europeans. Bischu is always being underrated, and the 5.6 betting odds he is getting against MC is probably my favorite one out of the first round match-ups. Happy, one of the best online players in Europe, disappointed slightly in his WCS EU group by having his rax-FE-every-game style exploited, but made it through to the Ro16 nonetheless by being really damn good. He's our elitist-hipster favorite to do well this tournament.

Finally, there's SjoW who was punished for his good deed of beating Life at DreamHack Summer by being fed to Protoss players ever since. After DreamHack, he's gone 6 - 11 against Protoss in contrast to his sterling 12 - 0 record against Zerg. The StarCraft gods have deemed that he needs to suffer more, and have put him in a no-Zerg group in the first round of the tournament. Godspeed Sjow, godspeed.


Group 3: MVP.DRG vs. FnaticNaama, RoX|KIS.TitaN vs. Mill.Goswser

Did someone say banshee buff? #yearofNaama

— Santeri Lahtinen (@FnaticNaama) June 14, 2013

As the biggest hipster supporters of DongRaeGu since before you ever heard of him, we're desperately waiting for him to return to his old form. Dropping down to Code A, going 0 - 4 in GSTL... yeah it's been an ugly transition to HotS. Sadly enough, he doesn't seem to be getting any better, with a top eight finish at IEM once again affirming his mid-tier Korean status in a post HotS world. Still, even a mediocre DRG should be able to crush this group and move on. No, we're not questioning if DRG can win, but if he can win in the dominating fashion of the past.

The race for second seems to boil down to Titan vs. Goswser. Both have had some mixed performances lately, with TitaN topping his WCS EU group only to get eliminated from the Ro16 of IEM Shanghai. Goswser played very well to reach the top four of DreamHack Valencia, but proceeded to rack up a series of losses in online tournaments like ATC and WCS Challenger. Between the two, I'd have to favor Goswser to advance, as TitaN has shown weakness against Zerg lately, and Goswser's ZvZ gives him a decent shot at taking out DRG as well. Sadly, even the cloak cost decrease won't be enough to help Naama come out of this group, although we're looking forward to the strategies he will bring to vex his opponents and entertain the viewers. For Fuzer!


Group 4: mYi.StarDust vs. RoX|KIS.Pro7ecT, Na`Vi.BabyKnight vs. x5.PiG

StarDust enters ASUS ROG as one of the recent champions looking to add another trophy to his display case, alongside TaeJa and HyuN. While he's mostly famous for his exquisite force-fields and gateway unit focused style in PvZ that saw him win DreamHack Summer, he's also a strong player in the other match-ups, with a devious repertoire of cheeses in particular. A top four finish at DH: Valencia showed he wasn't just a one hit wonder, and he should be considered one of the top candidates to win the tourney.

His opponent, Pro7ecT, is the weirdest player in the tournament. More known for his Brood War exploits than SC2 ability, this Russian-Korean managed to break through the ASUS ROG qualifiers after having focused on Brood War for most of 2013. He even played in TeamLiquid's own TLS for a bit, and he gives ASUS ROG it's own mini 'elephant' in a way.

Continuing the trend of Australian players actually getting a chance at playing abroad, PiG picks up the baton left by Iaguz at IEM Shanghai (who impressed in defeat). PiG is definitely the third favorite behind BabyK and StarDust, but since he doesn't have to deal with the latter's fearsome PvZ in the first match, he has a puncher's chance of making it through.

Finally we have BabyKnight, who has been in an awkward-ish spot as of late. For a player who came to prominence during the patchzerg era of European StarCraft, he seems to have benefited a less from HotS than some would have expected. A few surprisingly early exits from WCS EU's Premier Division have left us scratching our heads on where to place him, but sometimes it just seems like he's running into the wrong players at the wrong times. Some more favorable match-ups could see him make a deep run at ASUS ROG.


Group 5: Liquid`TLO vs. prOp.RunA, mouz.VortiX vs. CW.Bunny

TLO proclaimed he didn't understand ZvP after he lost to HuK at the recent Red Bull Training grounds, so for his sake he better have done some studying as he has a Protoss opponent in his first match. The name RunA might not strike fear into everyone's heart, but underestimating an opponent at a weak match-up is a shortcut to defeat. It was a weird setback for TLO (top 4 at a 8 man tournament isn't so great), but it was unrealistic to expect his rise to continue unabated.

Oddly enough VortiX seems to be flying under the radar a little, despite having a great overall record and some decent finishes in recent tournaments. Although, that just seems to be the case in general for foreigners these days, as Koreans are going around gobbling up titles with Europeans struggling to get a word in. Just being 'pretty good' isn't enough these days, so it seems. VortiX should be able to make it out of the group, with the bigger tests coming later on.

Bunny is a European up and comer whose progress seems to have stalled as of late. It's hard to tell whether it's due to nerves now that he's playing on bigger stages or just because he just isn't getting any better, but he's in a tough spot in this group needing to edge out either TLO or VortiX to earn a Ro16 berth.


Group 6: Liquid`TaeJa vs. RoX|KIS.LiveZerg, Mill.Dayshi vs. Fnatic.Harstem

After nearly a year and a half, TaeJa finally returns to the tournament where he made his big international debut. While TaeJa ended Assembly Winter 2012 with just a top sixteen finish, it kicked off a fruitful career of robbing foreigners of their money. This time around he comes into the tournament not as an promising youngster, but one of the most decorated players in the entire tournament with four international titles to his name. He could even be seen tweeting some advice to first time Assembly participants like Alicia, showing that Koreans are equal opportunity pillagers.

Also returning to Assembly is LiveZerg, who was last seen at a major international event exactly one year ago at ASUS ROG Summer. Alas, he suffered a narrow elimination in the first round, just barely losing to Titan 2 - 3 in the final match of his group. Since then it's been purely online life for LiveZerg, who ironically doesn't get many chances to be seen in live settings. Welcome back LiveZerg! Now go face TaeJa

The other Terran in the group, Dayshi, is also a favorite to go through to the Ro16. A former undergroud favorite who has spilled over into the mainstream, Dayshi is still trying to get that high finish in a live tournament that will justify his reputation as Europe's next big thing. He's been consistent with two top sixteen finishes in a row at DreamHack, and this tournament could be where he finally breaks through the Ro8 barrier.

While TaeJa should be able to stroll through this group, if I had to pick one player who could give him trouble it would be Harstem. TaeJa rarely gets upset by Terrans or Zergs in bo3+, but he has a sneaky tendency to lose to foreign Protosses who can play long macro games against him. Players like Elfi and NightEnD have upset him in the past, and Harstem might potentially do it as well if TaeJa keeps dropping manner mules too early.


Group 7: Azubu.San vs. Revolver, aTn.Socke vs. ENCE.elfi

Ah, San. The bane of statistical ratings systems everywhere. On the strength of online cups and online qualifiers alone, San once made it to the top of the TLPD ranks and into the top seven of Aligulac.com's on/offline-weighted rankings. Despite his uncanny ability to crush qualifiers and online tournaments, San is borderline terrible when he plays in live settings. It's even more shocking when you think about how he reached the final four in two GSL's in a row back in 201. Whatever manly powers he had then (*cough* khaydarin amulet *cough*) are lost. This is a relatively soft group for San on paper, and it could help him ease back into a live tournament groove, but two Protoss opponents mean that another disappointment could be looming.

Revolver is the closest thing to a true unknown in this tournament, but he must be reasonably good since he came in by defeating Hendralisk, TOP, and viPro in the qualifiers. He's being fed to the lions with a Korean-Korean in his first match, but anything is possible when you play San. At worst he has nothing to lose, and he might impress us yet.

On the other side of the bracket, Socke and Elfi go up against each other in a match between two members of Europe's "I don't care what his record was in the last four months, this guy could still beat any opponent" hall of fame. It's highly unlikely either one will win the entire tournament, but they're bound to create some interesting results before they go out. Will one of them beat San and fulfill his destiny as the king-of-online-only? Signs point to "yes."


Group 8: AX.Alicia vs. Mill.DieStar, mouz.LucifroN vs. Alliance.SortOf

The "they have something to prove" cliche has been saved for the eighth and final group of Assembly Summer. Indeed, all four of these players have much to gain and lose depending on their performance (as if that were somehow untrue for the other 28 players).

Alicia is one of the best Koreans who is still perennially underrated, and he could earn some well deserved respect with a high finish at this tournament. He's also looking for any kind of title, plain and simple, after having come in second place on three separate occasions already. The kong-line of SC2 has aptly been reduced to just two members after HyuN's triumph at Valencia, with just Alicia and Symbol left to mull about their misfortune. A Ro8 exit means Alicia will continue his life as just another good Korean looking for wider recognition.

For Diestar, there's a featured streamer spot on TL on the line. Also, after being overshadowed by Nerchio and MaNa for most of his career, now he's in danger of getting overshadowed by Tefel among Polish players as well. Come on, it's TEFEL, the worst player in the world.*

With every passing tournament, the hype behind Lucifron dies a little bit more. We've gone from "best player in Europe who can challenge Koreans for championships" expectations to "A really good player, but still just a foreigner." in the span of a few months. However, despite the foreign community's generally cynical demeanor, they still have plenty of hope saved up in reserve, and they're ready to let it all out if a player would just give them a chance. Lucifron has disappointed so far, but it just takes one good tournament to make up for all that.

Finally, SortOf looks to prove that he was no patchzerg (although he will probably be fighting such accusations even when he is 80) and is still a top European player. Each passing tournament seems to push him further and further toward the middle of the pack, and he'll be hoping his training in Korea has given him the edge he needs. He disappointed when he played his WCS EU group while braving KR-EU lag, but he should be stronger with a few more weeks of Korean experience under his belt and the benefit of a live setting.

*According to Naniwa