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Pyrry's Mafia Game - GG - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 22:21 GMT
#593
oh and I am not yet taking a stance on whether zeks is likely mafia/GF or not. I need more time to figure that one out.

I am going to come out and ask for medic protection tonight since I really don't want to die.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 22:34 GMT
#595
Well then look at the actions, show why it makes no sense if he's green or blue, and THEN you can conclude that he's red.

Do not start at "he's red so all these actions make sense look i'll show you"
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 22:37 GMT
#596
I could probably twist actions from most anyone in the topic to make them look red if I start at "he's red"

That's why you go the other way: it's much harder to fake it unless you get someone playing on the town side who legitimately isn't helping the town at all.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:09 GMT
#600
Shikyo wrote:
It doesn't make sense for him to not respond to this if he's green or blue, maybe tell who he suspects himself.


Your pronoun use here makes me want to cry. I literally have no idea who "him" is here since there is no antecedent. (I assume it's zeks?)

I don't see why you think that makes no sense if zeks is green or blue. Could you explain for me? Zeks was fishing for information and got what he wanted. I don't see teks asking a question in that last PM, so I don't see the necessity to respond.

Shikyo wrote:
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.

1/31; seems fairly good odds to me. However, he did suggest himself as the target--makes no sense to roleclaim towny then call a DT to r/c you (waste of a check--you really want blues/reds); that makes him either blue, red, or GF posing as blue.

What do you think the chances are the GF would pose as blue instead of green?

zeks, are you a vanilla townie?

You can choose to respond or not, but right now I think this is an interesting question to ask. There really isn't a right answer to it at this point, is there?

Shikyo wrote:
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.

Ok. So everyone who has talked about a medic list but hasn't proposed one is mafia?

Lynch JeeJee, he's clearly mafia (pretty sure he didn't suggest one; I haven't checked to be positive though)

Shikyo wrote:
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense.

Ok. Once I can figure out your reasoning there I'll let you know what I think about it.

Shikyo wrote:
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. Not about what minor mistakes the people who accuse him make.

I'll re-read his arguments and let you know what I think when I have a coherent opinion.

"et cetera"
lol

I will admit, when I saw the way you two (teks/Shikyo) presented your arguments I didn't read into them as carefully as I could have. Why bother when your entire argument is predicated on the assumption you're trying to prove? If you two had posited your arguments in the fashion I think is more effective--"here are zeks's actions, here's why he can't be green/blue, here's why he can't be a vanilla mafia, hence he is GF"--I would have read them much more carefully.

teks wrote:
Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie?

Well for one thing, you would get me to actually read your arguments carefully if you had done it the other way 'round

The other thing--mafia would love to do it backwards. They know who they don't want to implicate, so they'll pick out someone who looks maybe a bit suspicious, then they'll go this way--let's assume that player is mafia; now how do I prove it? Is acting like mafia a good thing for townies?

teks wrote:
If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't.


Did you think this before you postulated zeks as GF, or after
The correct answer is, of course, "before," and I'd be surprised if you don't say that (but see WIFOM). If the real answer is "after"--think about how that supports my assertion that you went about this backward.

You don't have to answer this--we don't get any info from your answer right now.

Anyway I do have dinner soon. I will be back later. Hopefully I'll be able to construct my thoughts before the end of this night.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:11 GMT
#601
If you know what you want to see, you will often see it even if it isn't there.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:18 GMT
#604
You'll see what I think before the end of this night. I promise it.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:21 GMT
#607
Foolishness wrote:
Nobody voted for either us, hardly anyone even paid attention to us. NOBODY CARES!

Go look at my votelist for day 1, and notice I listed both you and iLoveKTF as candidates there despite neither of you receiving a vote. Stop being stupid.

Foolishness wrote:
If you want something more concrete to go by, I have heard many experienced players in the mafia realm say that anyone who doesn't get any votes in the election is probably innocent. What does that tell you?

bro go find who said that in this topic
oh wait
it was me
saying
that
i think that
ilovektf was probably innocent
since
he
received exactly no votes in the race
hi5 bro
you're seeing things that arent there
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:23 GMT
#608
Right now I am going through and compiling all of zeks's posts by the way.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:40 GMT
#610
haha I'm glad someone is picking up on my style

right now I'm going through the topic and compiling every zeks post into a text file and I will look at them when I'm done

I will not finish before dinner
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 23 2009 23:41 GMT
#611
also

i know you'll say it

yes i'm dodging
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 00:55 GMT
#613
Well my time probably got limited a bit; my friends just called and they're coming over at some point but I will not renege on my promise to look over zeks's posts.

Here is the complete list in chronological order.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.

Also, with 30 players we have a much higher chance of lynching a poor blue this time around. I understand that there could be true green inactives, but to randomly pick someone imo is really dangerous. I suggest choosing someone that is both inactive and has somewhat of a clue pointing to that person.

Right now looking at all the platforms Shikyo has the most detailed and from first glance it does make him look the most trustworthy. Although the other candidates boast "experience", to me that really isn't the most important thing. It's the plan that the person comes up with that will attract my vote.

The problem is we really only have 3-4 real candidates running for mayor/sheriff. Shikyo seems like a shoe-in for sheriff with the mayor position up for grabs.

So with that said...

I'm going to be running for Mayor.

I've played in a couple mafia games previously. Didn't really say much or do much, but after much observation I am willing to use all that I understand for the town's benefit.

My plan:
1. Day 1 Lynch
- I'd like for the town to vote for the day 1 lynch. Although if I get elected I have the choice, I am willing to let the town decide on who gets the axe day 1. This of course would only work if we collectively or majoritively agree on one person right now before the elections are over.

2. Town web -
a) Vigi Plan

I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.

b) Medic plan

Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.

c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.

If I do get elected, I will get 3 votes. I plan on voting on the basis of behavioural analysis and clues, with clues being 2nd most important (exceptions of course). I will try to share as much as I know with everybody to keep everyone out of the dark. As for the double-lynches, I hope that they will be used as soon as the town web gets rolling.

I hope I have said enough to convince you all to give me a chance, and I promise I will do my best to paint the walls of Fluidville bright red.

(I hope that wasn't bad for my first thread post)

Just realized theres a player named teks in this game - I hope you guys don't mistake me for him, my name is Zeks.

Thanks for reading!


On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote:
For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation.

Our activity in this game has been pretty disappointing. The more lurkers there are the more it benefits the reds. Come on out people!

The last 3 pages have pretty much been arguing about elections, and we've seem to forget about our first day clues (however vague they may be). I'll try to get some clue analysis done by the end of elections.

Anyways I've come up with the inactive list:

Posted very little:
7. motbob - ran for Sheriff
15. ydg - clue analysis
16. sugiuramidori - clue analysis
19. therapy - talked so he didnt look like an inactive
24. Knutti - didn't really say much, see pg4
26. Koopie - forgot what he said but wasn't too important
29. phelix - didn't really say much, see pg4
30. bwdero - supports killing inactive even if he's blue, minor clue analysis

Never posted:
5. omG.[RaYnE]
6. clazziquai
13. adriix33
18. Ra.Xor.2
31. epicdoom

Show nested quote +
I'll address this right now.

What clues?

The only thing I have seen even remotely linked to me is the word "creep" and my pet zergling icon. I don't need to remind you that we have at least 8 players with zerg icons playing this game. You will be rather hard pressed to validate anything based solely on that.


What about the "eerily crepusclar" clue - with your cat in the profile? Hope you can explain that a little.


On May 20 2009 01:27 zeks wrote:
@BWDero:

Sorry, might have mixed you up with someone else.


On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.


On May 20 2009 05:07 zeks wrote:
Based on clues: Jayme
Other than that: I choose therapy.

Justification on therapy:
His one post:
Show nested quote +
Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 friends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything too profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff's speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't state anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark?


The majority of us have agreed to lynch an inactive for first lynch, and the whole purpose of his one post is so that he won't be on the chopping block for this lynch. It is because of this that makes me suspicious of him. He may have posted once, so it looks like he's better than the ones that haven't posted, but I think his post was as good as nothing. Furthermore, his profile has pretty much one thing to relate clues to: the quote: "Let's start a revolution so I can break some shit." I am linking this to the last part of day 1:
Show nested quote +
Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


This isn't the strongest clue, but the links are:
"break some shit" -> "windshield shattered and a wave of glass..."
"start a revolution" -> "sounding a horn"

So because of those two counts and the majority of us wanting to lynch an inactive, I would thus lynch therapy if I were to be elected mayor.


On May 20 2009 05:27 zeks wrote:
I hope the town will appreciate the information I'm disclosing to you all. I'm willing to share my thoughts publically to keep everyone informed, and I hope to hear opinions from you all on my findings.

A comeback seems improbable now for me, but I hope you all can reconsider me for Mayor. Again my platform is on page 8 if you haven't read it yet.



On May 20 2009 06:25 zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).

I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.

I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor.

The mayor role has quite the big effect with the 3 votes, and in tight voting races it could really sway the result.

From the looks of this JeeJee will become mayor, and I hope you decide to go with the lynch of therapy.


On May 20 2009 06:28 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 06:22 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
On May 20 2009 06:20 l10f wrote:
On May 20 2009 06:14 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election.


So you want to lynch a voter for both JeeJee and Jimtudor, regardless of who wins?


No im saying depending on who won, we can lynch one of their voters, and if he flips up red, we can be suspicious of the new mayor.


If the right clues connect to one of the voters then yes; so I believe my suggestion of checking the voters first should be valid.

We shouldn't be lynching just a random person off the list.


On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.



On May 20 2009 11:59 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 10:08 Therapy wrote:
I don't understand what is so suspicious about saying that I don't have anything to add. However, if I AM lynched, and that seems to be becoming extremely likely I suggest suspicions be turned towards JeeJee and zeks as they were very quick to bandwagon against me with little to no real evidence. I'm not sure what I can really say in my defense, I'm just inexperienced and figured I was supposed to post, just couldn't think of anything to add. Guess I'll take this as a learning experience for the next game.


There isn't really a "bandwagon" at all. BWDero wanted a name, and I gave him one. Why did JeeJee support the idea of lynching you? Probably because the evidence (however little it may be) seemed convincing enough to him. In terms of inactives and those with clues pointing to them, you're one of the more obvious ones. If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game.


On May 20 2009 10:10 The_Master wrote:
Well, Shikyo, I thank you for not being too suspicious of me. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.


Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 12:31 zeks wrote:
There is no lynching vote, mayor gets the lynch

I read the rules and I never found anything about ties and what would happen - but most of you say its last vote = Sheriff so I suppose Shikyo is now Mayor. Shikyo probably already sent in his lynch.


Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 12:33 zeks wrote:
Oops obviously I didn't read the rules well enough doh!

Let's see who's on the chopping block!


Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 13:03 zeks wrote:
I take responsibility for the miss. Therapy wasn't the strongest for clues, in fact I still think Jayme and the cat is. Other than the fact that therapy did seem suspicious, the fact that no one really covered for him said a lot about his role. I was also hoping to get more input from people, especially the two elected, but I guess my finger was all it took to give therapy his end.

Hey, at least we didn't hit a blue. I guess we can call round 1 a draw?

I guess our next step is to construct the medic list.



Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 22:34 zeks wrote:
Medic list looks fine to me, I'm pretty much waiting for the Sheriff to talk and the arrival of day 2.


Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan.


Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:
On May 21 2009 11:52 So no fek wrote:
Wow, Jimtudor got bodyguard. So we know he isn't mafia. Now the real question is: Was it someone trying to attack someone in office, or get rid of Jimtudor? Either way it makes me think about who's in office. We've all come to the general consensus that mafia is likely either in office, or ran for office. Killing one of the people that ran for office doesn't seem like something that would benefit them, as it would just bring more suspicion onto them. On the other hand, if mafia isn't in office, then they see the people there as a threat, and thus are going through bodyguards for that entire purpose. Of course, killing off your own bodyguards as mafia would be stupid, but it could all just be to throw us off.


You bring up some pretty good points.

Let's review out all the likely scenarios:
a) Jim revealed his role to mafia
- Mafia would get rid of him due to the fact that he is a contributing player, and the suspicion cast on him early would probably mean the medics won't be protecting him tonight

b) Jim revealed his role to the Sheriff/Mayor, and one/or both are mafia.
- Now if either JeeJee or Shikyo decided to kill Jim off, I believe that wouldn't be a wise move because bodyguards protect them from potential future vigi hits. I think a mafia "elected" would prefer to have his bodyguards, of course there is the possibility of the mayor trying to get rid of the Sheriff or vice versa. This scenario is pretty farfetch'd in my opinion.

c) Jim never revealed his role to anyone, he was just a target from get the get go since he was a good contributer.

- I think this is the most likely scenario. It's obvious that the town has been suspicious of Jim up until this point, and a lot of us were arguing whether to put him on the medic list or not. Because of the suspicion the medics probably weren't going to cover him tonight which lead to his death.

We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:

a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.
- After some thought I find it hard to believe that either of them took 2 hits. Softer wasn't really contributing too too much to deserve 2 hits - in fact he wasn't even on any medic lists afaik. For Jim I want to reiterate that there was already suspicion cast on him, so if mafia were smart they'd probably assume that Jim was not likely to be protected, thus only needing one hit. Of course scenario a) cannot be fully ruled out because we don't know how the mafia valued Jimtudor as a contributer.

b) Someone got saved.
- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight.

I'll true to whip up some clue analysis later.



Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.

But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.

And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)



Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:
On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)



I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws:

1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real
2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well)
3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely..

Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this.


1) The DT would tell me my role.
2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then.
3) Up to you guys to decide.

There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.


On May 22 2009 01:30 zeks wrote:
Yep I talked about the possibility of me being GF. That's why you guys have to analyze my behaviour and whether any clues have pointed to me to see whether I'm trustworthy enough up to this point.

I'm not in a hurry in getting this working. We're still in good shape though we lost a bodyguard but at least we don't need to suspect Jim no more, which narrows down the list of potential mafia in the candidates/medic list.

If someone can come up with a surefire plan for day 2, by all means tell us. I'm still not convinced of using the vigi plan for many reasons stated against it.


On May 22 2009 13:04 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 13:00 JeeJee wrote:
On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?

I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).

At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet.


a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme.

of course the inactives are hurting us
the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed.


lol pulling an Ace?

Mind to give us a name of someone u want dead?


On May 22 2009 13:38 zeks wrote:
JeeJee it sounds like you have a very extensive database on everyone I was hoping you could have some more justification on l10f.

Foolishness I like your 'no bullshit' attitude.


On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:
Great post Judge.

vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:

One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.


Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?

1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct
2) He was hit by the mafia

How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?

"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"

Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.


Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?


On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote:
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.


On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.



---- HERE ENDS POSTS BEFORE ACCUSATION

On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:
Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me.

Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others.

Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie. I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going?

Show nested quote +
So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.


Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas.

Show nested quote +
It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.


Here is what I said:
Show nested quote +
...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
Page 8.

I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan.

Show nested quote +
...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.

Show nested quote +
So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:


Don't contradict yourself.

As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quotes part 2:

Show nested quote +
Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.

After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.

Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues.

I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason.

Show nested quote +
I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time?

Show nested quote +
Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.


The plan being the medic list?

Show nested quote +
No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.

Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.


I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding.

Show nested quote +
Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!

Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!


What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list.

If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.

Show nested quote +
I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?


Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over.

What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill.

You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town.

That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you.




On May 23 2009 23:26 zeks wrote:
Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction.


Show nested quote +
I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.


Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything.

This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death.

Show nested quote +

After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?


If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT.

Show nested quote +

"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".


I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning.

Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
was a reply to
Show nested quote +
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
.



Show nested quote +
Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.

So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.


When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of
Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are".

Show nested quote +
Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen.


You want to play with "time"? Sure, two can play that game.

May 22 2009 21:43 -
Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?


May 22 2009 23:06 -
Show nested quote +
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.


Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me.

I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.

Show nested quote +

On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.


Show nested quote +
So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.


See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy.

I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions.

If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position.




On May 23 2009 23:30 zeks wrote:
Btw, Shikyo and teks you're both from europe and I'm from Canada, so if I'm not active when you're not active please understand that I'm in a totally different timezone.

As for the medic list tonight, I have no comments about how you medics are going to use it for your guidelines of protection, but I believe this is a very important article that should be posted again.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 04:19 JeeJee wrote:
There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.

The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore

The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.

What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.


Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).

I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr!





On May 24 2009 00:18 zeks wrote:
Edit: I made a formatting error on the rebuttal of Shikyo (quoted something twice)


I'll post this now, will follow up with important posts grouped in a bit but my friends are here (shit) so we'll see what happens.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 00:57 GMT
#614
oh shit i fucked that up, will try to fix in a new post
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 01:03 GMT
#615
Well my time probably got limited a bit; my friends just called and they're coming over at some point but I will not renege on my promise to look over zeks's posts.

Here is the complete list in chronological order.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.

Also, with 30 players we have a much higher chance of lynching a poor blue this time around. I understand that there could be true green inactives, but to randomly pick someone imo is really dangerous. I suggest choosing someone that is both inactive and has somewhat of a clue pointing to that person.

Right now looking at all the platforms Shikyo has the most detailed and from first glance it does make him look the most trustworthy. Although the other candidates boast "experience", to me that really isn't the most important thing. It's the plan that the person comes up with that will attract my vote.

The problem is we really only have 3-4 real candidates running for mayor/sheriff. Shikyo seems like a shoe-in for sheriff with the mayor position up for grabs.

So with that said...

I'm going to be running for Mayor.

I've played in a couple mafia games previously. Didn't really say much or do much, but after much observation I am willing to use all that I understand for the town's benefit.

My plan:
1. Day 1 Lynch
- I'd like for the town to vote for the day 1 lynch. Although if I get elected I have the choice, I am willing to let the town decide on who gets the axe day 1. This of course would only work if we collectively or majoritively agree on one person right now before the elections are over.

2. Town web -
a) Vigi Plan

I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.

b) Medic plan

Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.

c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.

If I do get elected, I will get 3 votes. I plan on voting on the basis of behavioural analysis and clues, with clues being 2nd most important (exceptions of course). I will try to share as much as I know with everybody to keep everyone out of the dark. As for the double-lynches, I hope that they will be used as soon as the town web gets rolling.

I hope I have said enough to convince you all to give me a chance, and I promise I will do my best to paint the walls of Fluidville bright red.

(I hope that wasn't bad for my first thread post)

Just realized theres a player named teks in this game - I hope you guys don't mistake me for him, my name is Zeks.

Thanks for reading!


On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote:
For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation.

Our activity in this game has been pretty disappointing. The more lurkers there are the more it benefits the reds. Come on out people!

The last 3 pages have pretty much been arguing about elections, and we've seem to forget about our first day clues (however vague they may be). I'll try to get some clue analysis done by the end of elections.

Anyways I've come up with the inactive list:

Posted very little:
7. motbob - ran for Sheriff
15. ydg - clue analysis
16. sugiuramidori - clue analysis
19. therapy - talked so he didnt look like an inactive
24. Knutti - didn't really say much, see pg4
26. Koopie - forgot what he said but wasn't too important
29. phelix - didn't really say much, see pg4
30. bwdero - supports killing inactive even if he's blue, minor clue analysis

Never posted:
5. omG.[RaYnE]
6. clazziquai
13. adriix33
18. Ra.Xor.2
31. epicdoom

Show nested quote +
I'll address this right now.

What clues?

The only thing I have seen even remotely linked to me is the word "creep" and my pet zergling icon. I don't need to remind you that we have at least 8 players with zerg icons playing this game. You will be rather hard pressed to validate anything based solely on that.


What about the "eerily crepusclar" clue - with your cat in the profile? Hope you can explain that a little.


On May 20 2009 01:27 zeks wrote:
@BWDero:

Sorry, might have mixed you up with someone else.


On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.


On May 20 2009 05:07 zeks wrote:
Based on clues: Jayme
Other than that: I choose therapy.

Justification on therapy:
His one post:
Show nested quote +
Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 friends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything too profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff's speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't state anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark?


The majority of us have agreed to lynch an inactive for first lynch, and the whole purpose of his one post is so that he won't be on the chopping block for this lynch. It is because of this that makes me suspicious of him. He may have posted once, so it looks like he's better than the ones that haven't posted, but I think his post was as good as nothing. Furthermore, his profile has pretty much one thing to relate clues to: the quote: "Let's start a revolution so I can break some shit." I am linking this to the last part of day 1:
Show nested quote +
Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


This isn't the strongest clue, but the links are:
"break some shit" -> "windshield shattered and a wave of glass..."
"start a revolution" -> "sounding a horn"

So because of those two counts and the majority of us wanting to lynch an inactive, I would thus lynch therapy if I were to be elected mayor.


On May 20 2009 05:27 zeks wrote:
I hope the town will appreciate the information I'm disclosing to you all. I'm willing to share my thoughts publically to keep everyone informed, and I hope to hear opinions from you all on my findings.

A comeback seems improbable now for me, but I hope you all can reconsider me for Mayor. Again my platform is on page 8 if you haven't read it yet.



On May 20 2009 06:25 zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).

I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.

I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor.

The mayor role has quite the big effect with the 3 votes, and in tight voting races it could really sway the result.

From the looks of this JeeJee will become mayor, and I hope you decide to go with the lynch of therapy.


On May 20 2009 06:28 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 06:22 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
On May 20 2009 06:20 l10f wrote:
On May 20 2009 06:14 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election.


So you want to lynch a voter for both JeeJee and Jimtudor, regardless of who wins?


No im saying depending on who won, we can lynch one of their voters, and if he flips up red, we can be suspicious of the new mayor.


If the right clues connect to one of the voters then yes; so I believe my suggestion of checking the voters first should be valid.

We shouldn't be lynching just a random person off the list.


On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.



On May 20 2009 11:59 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 10:08 Therapy wrote:
I don't understand what is so suspicious about saying that I don't have anything to add. However, if I AM lynched, and that seems to be becoming extremely likely I suggest suspicions be turned towards JeeJee and zeks as they were very quick to bandwagon against me with little to no real evidence. I'm not sure what I can really say in my defense, I'm just inexperienced and figured I was supposed to post, just couldn't think of anything to add. Guess I'll take this as a learning experience for the next game.


There isn't really a "bandwagon" at all. BWDero wanted a name, and I gave him one. Why did JeeJee support the idea of lynching you? Probably because the evidence (however little it may be) seemed convincing enough to him. In terms of inactives and those with clues pointing to them, you're one of the more obvious ones. If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game.

Show nested quote +
On May 20 2009 10:10 The_Master wrote:
Well, Shikyo, I thank you for not being too suspicious of me. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.


I don't mind that you find that suspicious at all. I would still be voting to JimTudor if JeeJee hadn't swayed me over to the dark side (pardon the figure of speech). Also, I wouldn't expect to not get off the 'suspected' list by changing my vote but I figured I'd be suspected either way so I may as well vote for who I wanted to vote for.

If you think I swtiched votes to remove suspicions from myself, think of it this way: If I was a mafia the two ways I can think of to explain my actions are:
a) I panicked at possibly being the center of attention so I joined a bandwagon and made up the pitiful excuse of why I changed my vote; or
b) My Mafian ringleaders (all more experienced than me so they would know it would bring attention to myself) told me to switch from JimTudor (if he is Mafian like you suspect) to JeeJee ... for some reason. Perhaps JeeJee is mafia as well then or JeeJee would somehow benefit them in some way that would counter the extra suspicion being dumped upon me?

Now, if I was a lonely little townsfolk peasant person with no friends to give me a character reference I can only think of one reason to change: I liked JeeJee in more than JimTudor (or maybe I have a 6th sense just joined the bandwagon before I realized there was a bandwagon - now, that would be cool).


Fair enough, your defense sounds good. But why are you assuming that the mafia are more experienced than you?


On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.


On May 20 2009 12:31 zeks wrote:
There is no lynching vote, mayor gets the lynch

I read the rules and I never found anything about ties and what would happen - but most of you say its last vote = Sheriff so I suppose Shikyo is now Mayor. Shikyo probably already sent in his lynch.


On May 20 2009 12:33 zeks wrote:
Oops obviously I didn't read the rules well enough doh!

Let's see who's on the chopping block!


On May 20 2009 13:03 zeks wrote:
I take responsibility for the miss. Therapy wasn't the strongest for clues, in fact I still think Jayme and the cat is. Other than the fact that therapy did seem suspicious, the fact that no one really covered for him said a lot about his role. I was also hoping to get more input from people, especially the two elected, but I guess my finger was all it took to give therapy his end.

Hey, at least we didn't hit a blue. I guess we can call round 1 a draw?

I guess our next step is to construct the medic list.



On May 20 2009 22:34 zeks wrote:
Medic list looks fine to me, I'm pretty much waiting for the Sheriff to talk and the arrival of day 2.


On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan.


On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 11:52 So no fek wrote:
Wow, Jimtudor got bodyguard. So we know he isn't mafia. Now the real question is: Was it someone trying to attack someone in office, or get rid of Jimtudor? Either way it makes me think about who's in office. We've all come to the general consensus that mafia is likely either in office, or ran for office. Killing one of the people that ran for office doesn't seem like something that would benefit them, as it would just bring more suspicion onto them. On the other hand, if mafia isn't in office, then they see the people there as a threat, and thus are going through bodyguards for that entire purpose. Of course, killing off your own bodyguards as mafia would be stupid, but it could all just be to throw us off.


You bring up some pretty good points.

Let's review out all the likely scenarios:
a) Jim revealed his role to mafia
- Mafia would get rid of him due to the fact that he is a contributing player, and the suspicion cast on him early would probably mean the medics won't be protecting him tonight

b) Jim revealed his role to the Sheriff/Mayor, and one/or both are mafia.
- Now if either JeeJee or Shikyo decided to kill Jim off, I believe that wouldn't be a wise move because bodyguards protect them from potential future vigi hits. I think a mafia "elected" would prefer to have his bodyguards, of course there is the possibility of the mayor trying to get rid of the Sheriff or vice versa. This scenario is pretty farfetch'd in my opinion.

c) Jim never revealed his role to anyone, he was just a target from get the get go since he was a good contributer.

- I think this is the most likely scenario. It's obvious that the town has been suspicious of Jim up until this point, and a lot of us were arguing whether to put him on the medic list or not. Because of the suspicion the medics probably weren't going to cover him tonight which lead to his death.

We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:

a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.
- After some thought I find it hard to believe that either of them took 2 hits. Softer wasn't really contributing too too much to deserve 2 hits - in fact he wasn't even on any medic lists afaik. For Jim I want to reiterate that there was already suspicion cast on him, so if mafia were smart they'd probably assume that Jim was not likely to be protected, thus only needing one hit. Of course scenario a) cannot be fully ruled out because we don't know how the mafia valued Jimtudor as a contributer.

b) Someone got saved.
- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight.

I'll true to whip up some clue analysis later.



On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.

But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.

And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)



On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)



I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws:

1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real
2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well)
3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely..

Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this.


1) The DT would tell me my role.
2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then.
3) Up to you guys to decide.

There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.

On May 22 2009 01:30 zeks wrote:
Yep I talked about the possibility of me being GF. That's why you guys have to analyze my behaviour and whether any clues have pointed to me to see whether I'm trustworthy enough up to this point.

I'm not in a hurry in getting this working. We're still in good shape though we lost a bodyguard but at least we don't need to suspect Jim no more, which narrows down the list of potential mafia in the candidates/medic list.

If someone can come up with a surefire plan for day 2, by all means tell us. I'm still not convinced of using the vigi plan for many reasons stated against it.


On May 22 2009 13:04 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 13:00 JeeJee wrote:
On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?

I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).

At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet.


a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme.

of course the inactives are hurting us
the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed.


lol pulling an Ace?

Mind to give us a name of someone u want dead?


On May 22 2009 13:38 zeks wrote:
JeeJee it sounds like you have a very extensive database on everyone I was hoping you could have some more justification on l10f.

Foolishness I like your 'no bullshit' attitude.


On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:
Great post Judge.

vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:

One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.


Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?

1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct
2) He was hit by the mafia

How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?

"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"

Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.


Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?


On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote:
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.


On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.



---- HERE ENDS POSTS BEFORE ACCUSATION

On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:
Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me.

Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others.

Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie. I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going?

Show nested quote +
So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.


Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas.

Show nested quote +
It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.


Here is what I said:
Show nested quote +
...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
Page 8.

I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan.

Show nested quote +
...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.

Show nested quote +
So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:


Don't contradict yourself.

As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quotes part 2:

Show nested quote +
Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.

After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.

Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues.

I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason.

Show nested quote +
I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time?

Show nested quote +
Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.


The plan being the medic list?

Show nested quote +
No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.

Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.


I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding.

Show nested quote +
Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!

Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!


What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list.

If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.

Show nested quote +
I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?


Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over.

What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill.

You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town.

That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you.




On May 23 2009 23:26 zeks wrote:
Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction.


Show nested quote +
I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.


Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything.

This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death.

Show nested quote +

After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?


If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT.

Show nested quote +

"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".


I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning.

Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
was a reply to
Show nested quote +
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
.



Show nested quote +
Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.

So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.


When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of
Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are".

Show nested quote +
Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen.


You want to play with "time"? Sure, two can play that game.

May 22 2009 21:43 -
Show nested quote +
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?


May 22 2009 23:06 -
Show nested quote +
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.


Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me.

I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.

Show nested quote +

On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.


Show nested quote +
So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.


See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy.

I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions.

If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position.




On May 23 2009 23:30 zeks wrote:
Btw, Shikyo and teks you're both from europe and I'm from Canada, so if I'm not active when you're not active please understand that I'm in a totally different timezone.

As for the medic list tonight, I have no comments about how you medics are going to use it for your guidelines of protection, but I believe this is a very important article that should be posted again.

Show nested quote +
On May 21 2009 04:19 JeeJee wrote:
There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.

The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore

The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.

What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.


Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).

I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr!





On May 24 2009 00:18 zeks wrote:
Edit: I made a formatting error on the rebuttal of Shikyo (quoted something twice)
[/QUOTE]

I'll post this now, will follow up with important posts grouped in a bit but my friends are here (shit) so we'll see what happens.

well shit there's still one stray tag somewhere but at least this is readable now.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 01:29 GMT
#616
First trend: posts about detectives

I'll only be considering stuff before the accusation right now; I'll look later at stuff after the accusation if I have time.

+ Show Spoiler +

zeks wrote:
c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.


zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).

I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.

I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor.


zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.

But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.

And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)


zeks wrote:
1) The DT would tell me my role.
2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then.
3) Up to you guys to decide.

There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.


What do I read from this? zeks is blue or GF pretending blue.

Reasoning:

There are 3 cases. zeks is green, zeks is blue, or zeks is red.

zeks cannot be green (or GF pretending green). Here's why:

+ Show Spoiler +
zeks wrote:
1) The DT would tell me my role.


1) zeks cannot be a townie:

Imagine zeks receives a PM from a random player "I r/c'd you and I know you're townie."
If zeks is actually a townie, he shouldn't trust this--the risk is too high it's just a mafia pretending DT guessing the highest-probability role before behavior. Hell if I were towny I'd not trust anyone who PM's me saying they r/c'd me and got green.

There's also the miller possibility--if zeks thinks he's a towny he might actually be a miller, which makes the DT's "roleclaim" wrong.

This makes no sense to me if zeks is green.

2) zeks cannot be GF pretending green because of the fact no green would suggest this ploy in the first place. If a DT did happen to r/c zeks and got green, zeks is very likely to be GF. If the DT realizes this and finds a mouth, zeks is outed.

3) zeks cannot be red non-GF
He's setting himself up to get r/c'd and if someone calls his bluff he's outed. Doesn't make sense.

4) zeks can be blue
If someone PM's you your role when you're a blue they're either very very good at analyzing you, or you left too many hints, or they're a DT (or someone just fishing for info and got really lucky).

5) zeks can be GF pretending blue
Same reasoning as above. Trying to trick a DT into the mafia's confidence.

Therefore, zeks is blue or GF pretending blue. Or he's a stupid green or stupid green GF.

I propose that those last two cases are not worth considering.

I will look at the rest of his posts after a bit and try to pick out which of these two is correct; going to do stuff with my friends for now.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 05:05 GMT
#621
If I die I outlined a couple things for people to look at and PM'd them.

If I don't die I'll keep going with this argument when morning comes.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 05:06 GMT
#622
I PM'd four people and none of them have any knowledge of the others I PM'd btw.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 07:00 GMT
#629
LOL WHO VIGI'D ZEKS?
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 07:01 GMT
#630
also zeks you disappointed me dude, I can't believe you actually were just a stupid townie instead of a blue
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 07:03 GMT
#633
Esben I hope that was your hit man since then I don't have to berate the surviving Vigi for not listening to me.
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
crate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States2474 Posts
May 24 2009 07:04 GMT
#634
There are 4 hits.

Someone vigi'd.

Unless you think one of the other three was the vig kill?
We did. You did. Yes we can. No. || http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/crate.html || twitch.tv/crate3333
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